DOE-NE Perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles
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1 DOE-NE Perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles Ed McGinnis Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Nuclear Energy Policy and Cooperation August 1, 2011
2 Understanding and Minimizing the Risk of Proliferation is an Integral Part of NE s R&D Roadmap: Part of R&D Objective 4 Objective 1: Improve the Reliability, Sustain the Safety, and Extend the Life of Current Reactors Objective 2: Develop Improvements in the Affordability of New Reactors Innovative Nuclear Next-Generation Materials Energy Technologies and Protection, Accounting and and Intrinsic Design Control Technologies and Features Systems International Frameworks and Institutions Objective 3: Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment and Risk Management Objective 4: Understand and Minimize the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation and Terrorism
3 Objective 4 is comprised of four distinct RD&D pathways. 1. Innovative Technologies and Intrinsic Design Features 2. Next-Generation Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technology and Systems 3. International Frameworks and Institutions 4. Proliferation Risk Assessment and Risk Management 3
4 Motivation for DOE-NE to Develop Proliferation Risk Assessment Tools Proliferation risk information is important to NE s mission: to advance nuclear power as a resource capable of meeting the Nation's energy, environmental, and national security needs by resolving technical, cost, safety, proliferation resistance, and security barriers through research, development, and demonstration as appropriate. (Source: Proliferation risk, along with many other factors, must guide NE s RD&D programs and priorities Proliferation risk assessment is one tool, among many others, that can provide useful input bearing in mind all the necessary caveats and limitations Research incorporating innovative new approaches has the potential to address some limitations and improve the usefulness of these tools 4
5 Some Strengths and Limitations of Proliferation Risk Assessment Strengths (When Done Well) Encourages a disciplined approach, and clear display of important information, including uncertainties Presents information in understandable form so that interested people can scrutinize and challenge the data and assumptions Provides qualitative insights about the structure and performance of complex systems Enables a deeper understanding of dependencies and interactions between different subsystems and components Gives fresh, comparative perspectives on the relative advantages and disadvantages of various opportunities to reduce and control risks. Limitations and Challenges Complexity of the phenomena being examined (including intelligent, adaptive, determined adversary) Sparse data Limited models Large uncertainties Difficulties in effectively communicating risk information Dangers of misinterpretation or misuse 5
6 Proliferation Risk Assessment is Not a New Idea WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study Seminal work in the field Published in 1975 First major application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to reactor safety A pioneering study, but with significant limitations and shortcomings in areas such as Human factors Core melt and containment response Data needs Common-cause failures (CCFs) Treatment of uncertainties Etc. Did not address proliferation or terrorism How to understand, analyze, and combat an intelligent, adaptive, and determined adversary? Substantial work has been done since WASH-1400 to advance the state-ofthe art and -practice of risk assessment for proliferation and terrorism applications, including addressing identified shortcomings The field has progressed significantly, including extensive new work post- September 11, but many challenges still remain Dr. Charlton s panel will examine these issues in detail 6
7 Examples of Research Directions with Potential for Addressing Some Identified Challenges (Dr. Robinson s Panel to Address Further) Leverage university-based innovative research in the field of risk assessment, through Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) Utilize cross-disciplinary teams (e.g., political scientists, social scientists, mathematicians, engineers, and communications specialists in laboratories, industry, academia) Focus on a cross-section of key topics and approaches. Examples include: Adversary decision models Mathematical methods for extending classical risk analysis (e.g., game theory) Treatment of uncertainties Best practices for expert elicitation Risk communication Establish standardized benchmark problems for consistent comparisons of different methods. Perform prototypic evaluation studies of proliferation risks, focusing on a range of nuclear energy systems of interest to DOE. Provide guidance on metrics that can be used by systems analysts to evaluate multitude of fuel cycle options (along with other parameters such as economics, safety, and waste management). 7
8 Conclusions Proliferation risk information is important to NE s mission Can be qualitative, quantitative, or a combination of the two It is important to distinguish between risk assessment and risk management Defining and understanding the problem is risk assessment Deciding what to do about it is risk management Quantitative measures and metrics can be valuable inputs in assessing fuel cycle technology proliferation risk (the risk assessment step), but they must be used judiciously (the risk management step): Risk numbers are not intended to be the sole, or even the principal, basis for decision making. Factors such as intentions, geographical location, geopolitical context, safeguards culture, and many others, must also be factored in, many of which are not quantifiable. Measurements and metrics should complement, never replace, other factors and indicators. Strong coordination and dialogue among all stakeholders are vital, whatever methods are used 8
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