RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH

Transcription

1 RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH Authors: Alexander Sokolov 1, Alexander Chulok 2 1 corresponding author, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, sokolov@hse.ru 2 National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, achulok@hse.ru Keywords: Technology Foresight, STI policy THE ABSTRACT The paper represents results of the Russian S&T Foresight ( ) a fully-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation s competitive advantages. It was organised as a complex project involving a dozen of institutions performing particular tasks under overall coordination by the HSE and more than 3000 experts in various fields. Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (nano, energy, ICT, bio, medicine, transport, rational use of nature) the following group of results have been obtained: global trends, grand challenges, windows of opportunities (25 to 30 for each area); new markets and niches (10 to 15 for each area); innovation products and services (3 to 5 for each market); perspective technologies and R&D field (50 thematic groups, more than 1000 items for all areas); assessment of Russia vis-à-vis world leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation policy. Key issues discussed in the paper cover new drivers of economic growth and relevant implications for STI policy; discussions of national challenges and building common vision of the future among key stakeholder; the role of FTA and Foresight in particular as a communication platform that helps integrating NIS stakeholders; search for responses to Grand Challenges; using existing and building new capacities to increase national competitiveness and to move up along existing and emerging global value chains. The Russian Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national STI policy, can be considered as a case of an emerging economy facing large-scale problems and analysed as a tool for wiring up the NIS of a country with its particular features and problems. 1. INTRODUCTION Over the last decade both developed and emerging economies have faced a number of Grand Challenges, most of which are related to globalization and fast technology development. Security issues, energy and water supply, health problems, competitiveness in industrial production as well as many other issues strongly depend on the national capacities of S&T and innovation. Building such capacities require smart and well informed policies aimed at building competitive advantages under condition of declining traditional businesses and emerging new markets, dramatic changes in the structure of Global Value Chains. Search for adequate responses to the challenges has to be based on the longer-term vision and engagement of wider range of stakeholders to policy formulation. It becomes a more difficult task taking account of more sophisticated links between the actors of NIS. A major S&T development trend in the leading countries across the world during the recent decades was the quest for new approaches to shape the S&T and innovation policy, particularly by setting priorities for allocating R&D funding, and making informed strategic

2 decisions in the light of those priorities. During these efforts, a special emphasis was given to R&D, which creates future-oriented S&T impacts and thus supports industrial innovation. R&D has a great role to play in dealing with Grand Challenges, which the society and economy are expected to face in the medium to long term. Grand Challenges require integrated and interdisciplinary efforts responses [European Commission, 2010]. In this respect, applied research is expected to make an immense contribution in a number of areas, for instance, for the purpose of the depletion of strategic mineral resources; discovery of alternative energy sources, and ensuring energy safety; tackling with the ageing society and changing lifestyles; fighting against diseases; creation of a green economy towards a post-carbon society; development of novel economic growth models; and exploitation of the new and emerging technologies accompanied by a radical change of the industrial structure and other factors, which determine competitiveness. Setting long-term S&T priorities for creates a foundation for future economic growth; determines the opportunities for entering prospective markets while creating new ones; and provides a basis for technological modernisation of the sectors of the economy; as well as generating much-needed skilled and competent labour force for these transforming systems. The aforementioned developments have significant importance for the development of the Russian innovation system, which inherited a historically developed gap between R&D and business with a depletion of the pool of successful future-oriented S&T studies generated during the Soviet period [Gokhberg, Kuznetsova, 2011]. In this respect, the idea of supporting a coordinated R&D programme emerged with the aim of creating and accumulating a critical mass of successful S&T applications with implications for the strategies to achieve those outcomes to be implemented by the government, state-owned companies and all other relevant stakeholders. The Russian Federation sets an ambitious goal of becoming one of more advanced economies with higher living standards for its population. There is a common understanding that it cannot be realised within the framework of the current resource-based growth model" which is prone to exhaust itself 1. A twofold objective will have to be accomplished, which requires both breakthroughs in the development of global high-technology markets and modernisation of the traditional sectors of the economy. Obviously, Russia s future positions in the global value chains largely depend on whether its economy would be able to successfully fit into the new wave of technological development. This, in turn, requires concentrated effort by all key players in business, R&D, government, education, as well as a broader society. In the last decade, the Russian STI policies have undergone significant changes, which primarily related to the coverage of actors concerned and the spectrum of the instruments used. А gradual shift in the R&D support system has been manifested from investing in the established leading research teams to paying more attention to the new demand side which is related with strict budget limitations and poor outcome of the S&T system (Meissner et al, 2013). Obviously, in indentifying the related priorities and establishing the criteria for their selection, one must keep in mind the big picture of the future, Grand Challenges and major windows of opportunity, technological wild cards and the available S&T capacities. Such a level of complexity requires conduction of Foresight at the national level with involvement of key stakeholders and experts representing all S&T areas as well as the sectors of the economy (Zweck, 2014). This is a common trend for most of emerging economies facing new very complex challenges. A number of Foresight studies in the field of S&T and innovation have been performed in BRICS countries (see Cagnin, 2014; CAS, 2010; Kahn, 2008). Agendas of those studies have very much in common. It aims at formulating STI policy and foster efficiency of the National Innovation Systems on the basis of new technologies. Russia has witnessed a significant growth is in the number of Foresight studies during the last decade (see Figure 1); while at first, the initiative came mostly from the top level i.e. the 1 RF President s address to the Federal Assembly,

3 federal governmental agencies, development institutions etc., later on an enhanced activity has been witnessed at the regional level mainly in industrially developed regions and cities around Russia, such as the city of Moscow; Yekaterinburg, Samara and Tomsk regions; Republic of Bashkortostan; Krasnoyarsk Territory and others. Large companies increasingly initiate Foresight studies in the framework of developing their long-term strategies (see for example, Dekhtyaruk et al, 2015). This process is reflected in gradual dissemination of Foresight culture at its penetration at various levels of administrative decision making national, regional, industrial and corporate. The accumulation in Russia of a critical mass of Foresight activities has led to a demand for establishing more complex and wired-up system of technology Foresight. The first large-scale study at the national level was the S&T Foresight 2025, initiated in 2007 by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. It included three large sections: macroeconomic forecast for the Russian economy; a Foresight study for priority S&T areas; and Foresight for several sectors of the national economy (Sokolov, 2007; Chulok, 2009; Sokolov, 2009). Within the framework of the second cycle of the national S&T Foresight ( ), the future of the global economy and of major markets was assessed. The fully-fledged S&T Foresight 2030 study was initiated by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science in Its goal was the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation s competitive advantages (Sokolov, Chulok, 2012). It was organised as a complex project involving a dozen of institutions performing particular tasks under overall coordination by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE). Figure 1. Dynamics of Foresight studies in Russia

4 2. METHODOLOGY The S&T Foresight has been developed with a wide range of modern tools, which have confirmed their effectiveness in international practices. A combination of normative ( market pull ) and explorative ( technology push ) approaches was used in order to provide a balance between long-term development goals and existing S&T capacities. The normative approach was oriented at identification and analysis of key challenges and opportunities with respect to priority S&T areas, followed by corresponding technology packages and other innovation based responses. In the explorative approach, there were singled out prospective breakthrough technologies, which could radically change the existing economic, social and industrial paradigm (Figure 2). Figure 2. Methodology of Russian S&T Foresight: 2030 The expert community engaged in the project covered mosdt prominent Russian and international scholars, businessmen, government officials. Some 150 key experts have worked in seven thematic panels. On top of that around 3000 experts were engaged in interviews and surveys relarted to particular issues. The major steps in the Foresight studies were as follows (for details see [Sokolov, Chulok, 2012 and Sokolov, Chulok, Mesropyan, 2013). 1. At the first stage, on the basis of biblimetric and patent analysis, desk research of over 200 different analytical reports, strategic documents and results of Foresight studies there was developed a list of 150 global S&T, socio-economic and political trends and assessed their potential effects as well as timelines of maximal influence of each trend. 2. On this basis there were selected trends that could create windows of opportunity and threats for Russia for further more indepth analysis. 3. More than 80 promising innovative markets and over 250 relevant prospective product groups were identified and described (including their technological and consumer properties). This created a basis for identification of prospective market niches for Russian technologies. 4. The thematic expert panels identified over 50 priority thematic S&T areas and more than 1000 key R&D tasks to be addressed by the Government S&T programme.

5 5. There were identified global centres of competence for each S&T area and leading Russian research units were benchmarked against the global leaders. 6. The final recommendations for policy-makers were based on a wide consultation with different NIS actors and covered three major positions: markets, technologies and governance. The dialogue with various beneficiary groups allowed not just to identify promising S&T areas but also to understand potential policy tools for their future priority development. 3. RESULTS The S&T Foresight 2030 consists of seven sections dedicated to each of the seven priority S&T areas, including: 1. Information and Communication Technologies 2. Biotechnology 3. Medicine and Health 4. New Materials and Nanotechnologies 5. Rational use of nature 6. Transportation and Space Systems 7. Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 were mentioned in the annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly 2. A new federal law On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation approved in June 2014 envisages S&T Foresight as one of the key components of the system of national Foresight studies. In April 2013, there was established an Interdepartmental Commission on Technology Foresight subordinated to the Presidium of the Presidential Council on Modernisation of Economy and Innovation Development of Russia. The Commission is headed by the Minister of Education and Science and includes top-level officials from government agencies, heads of large high-tech companies and leading research centres. It has been playing a key role in establishinh and promoting the national S&T Foresight system 3. The S&T Foresight 2030 results were discussed at the Commission meetings with a focus on their wide dissemination and implementation. The Foresight study identifies future-oriented S&T research and results to be achieved (for details see HSE, 2013), which may serve as potential Russia s entry points to global value chains and increasing its niches in global markets (see Figure 3). The study has also revealed a number of white spots where Russian S&T is significantly lagging behind the world leaders, and in some cases doesn t have any relevant R&D capacities Established by the Presidential Decree of May 7, "On the long-term national economic policies".

6 Figure 3. Prospective innovative products and breakthrough technologies Information and communication technologies Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are among the key drivers of the shift towards a knowledge-based economy. Their development contributes to increasing the quality of life, efficiency of private businesses and public administration, emergence of new forms of education systems, better communication and interaction of individuals with a possibility to access to a wide variety of information in almost all aspects of life. Despite the fact that the ICT domain demonstrates a quite dynamic life cycle of relevant technologies, products and services, the role of accumulated pool of S&T results in this area remains very important. Based on the expert panels conclusions, seven applied research areas were identified with particular importance to Russia: Telecommunication technologies Data processing and analysis technologies Hardware components, electronic devices and robotics Predictive modeling and simulation Algorithms and software Information security Computer architecture and systems The results which can be obtained before 2030 include prototype systems based on new computational principles; prototype multilanguage programming systems for knowledge extraction and formalisation; data processing technologies to solve the Big Data problem; Next Generation Business Intelligence with new analytical tools, including personal analytical systems, tools for real-time data processing, mobile analysis, etc. The highest market growth rates for the aforementioned S&T products are expected to be in health, power engineering, mechanical engineering, transport, and in personal consumption of ICT products and services. In the medium term (before 2020), the experts expect introduction of electronic health passports; emergence of distributed networks of telemedicine centres;

7 development of quality control and safety system for drugs and medical services. By 2025, medical micro-devices are expected to emerge, implanted into the body to support its vital functions; technologies for exchanging standardised data between transport vehicles; universal global positioning and identification techniques within the framework of the Internet of Things concept; promising platforms for collecting, summarising and presenting the content and knowledge. The experts noted possible integration of inbuilt digital devices into mechanical engineering products, and development of programming technologies for inbuilt systems. Evolution of cloud computing and the development of new architectures and computational principles lead to transformation of software and may bring radical changes in business strategies of companies operating in all sectors of the economy. A colossal growth of data volumes available for analysis provides a foundation for a radical increase of efficiency of managerial decisions, including in the analytical business applications segment (Business Intelligence). However, according to the experts, Russian developers skill set does not cover all the areas of applied research required to obtain prominent positions in the prospective markets not by a long shot. One of the most advanced areas is New data transfer, networking, and content distribution technologies. In areas, such as Computer-aided element base design technologies, New data transfer technologies, Digital reality technologies and systems, prospective human- ICT interfaces, the level of Russian research did not receive high marks. Biotechnology The dynamic development of biotechnology can be explained not just by the advances achieved in biochemistry, bio-organic chemistry and molecular biology, but also by the crisis of traditional technologies (especially when considering the new trends, particularly environment- and energyrelated); the need to ensure food supply, raw materials, and medical security; sustain the supply of resources; increase people s lifespan; and support healthy national gene pool. Future-oriented research plays a major role in developing adequate responses to these challenges. Based on the results emerged from the expert panels, seven topics for applied research were identified within the priority research area in question as the most promising for Russia: Development of the scientific and methodological basis of biotechnology R&D Industrial biotechnology Agrobiotechnology Environmental biotechnology Food biotechnology Forest biotechnology Aqua biotechnology. Their development would contribute to achieve economic growth, enter high-technology markets, and accomplish numerous national first-order objectives. New kinds of biofuel would contribute to the diversification of the fuel-and-energy balance and reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions. Cellular, genomic and post-genomic technologies would allow making biomaterials from renewable raw materials, replacing traditional chemical production and developing innovative products with unique properties. They would also help to bring back rare and endangered flora and fauna species, and to preserve oceanic resources. Improvement of technologies for bio-organic waste processing will contribute to waste disposal, and reducing environmental pollution. With the introduction of new highly productive bioobjects, and application of efficient operating practices production processes could be significantly intensified. Development of technologies for producing new varieties of agricultural plants and new breeds of animals with improved properties would contribute in producing of high-quality and not expensive food. At the same time achieving the above-mentioned effects and securing a meaningful niche on promising emerging markets require a radical improvement of Russian producers competency

8 levels, which currently are quite uneven. Among the most advanced applied research areas the experts identified High-performance techniques for genome, transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome analysis ; Systematic and structural biology ; Microorganism strains and microbe consortia for creating symbiotic plant-microbial communities. On the other hand, in a number of other areas, such as Biotechnological processes for making biomaterials, fine and mainline organic synthesis products from renewable raw materials, Techniques for building genetic databases of plant varieties and seed certification, Environmentally safe biocides, the level of Russian research conducted in recent years remains insufficient. Medicine and health Increasing the quality of life and prolonging life expectancy is a major priority of the government policy as an indicator of the country s strategic development and national security progress 4. Accomplishing of these objectives largely depends on the level of future-oriented R&D and its results, which have become significantly more important in the recent years. The experts identified seven topics for applied research as the most promising ones for Russia. Molecular diagnostics Molecular profiling and identification of molecular and cellular pathogenesis mechanisms Biomedical cell technologies Biocomposite materials for medical application Bio-electrodynamics and radiation medicine Genomic passportisation of humans Discovery of candidate drugs Key trends identified in this area include growth of oncological, cardiovascular and infectious diseases; ageing of the population; ubiquitous spreading of metabolic diseases and brain pathologies. In turn, these challenges create new international markets where dynamics will be closely linked to demand for diagnostics and treatment techniques based on personalised medicine principles, reliable non-invasive express monitoring technologies for home application, technologies for remotely accessing preventive, safe and highly effective medical services. There is already a strong demand for an increased quality of life, especially in terms of restoration of lost body or organs functionality in total or partially. Research and development in bio-information, post-genomic and proteomic technologies provide an opportunity to personalise therapeutic effects. For instance, drugs would be prescribed on the basis of analysis of the patient s individual features. According to the expert evaluations, at least half of new drugs, which are expected to appear on the international markets by 2015 would have pharmacogenetic properties. Regenerative medicine technology is a major area of modern R&D, which is expected to address brain, locomotorium, oncological and many other diseases. The leading countries of the world have already achieved promising results in human organs regeneration, while Russia has practically made no progress in this area. According to the experts, by 2015 Russia may expect to achieve significant scientific and practical results in the following fields: Biocompatible biopolymeric materials ; Selfsterilising coatings for medical applications ; Testing systems based on genomic and postgenomic technologies, for diagnosing cancer, system, infectious and hereditary diseases ; Biosensors and biochips for clinical diagnostics, based on new types of biological devices ; Techniques for fast identification of toxic substances and pathogens. Successes achieved in innovative pharmaceutics biotechnologies, chemical synthesis technologies, targeted therapeutic effects, production of advanced effective vaccines would 4 See e.g. [the RF President s address to the Federal Assembly, 2012].

9 allow Russian companies to enter promising international markets, and the government to raise citizens quality of life. In a number of areas, such as Gradient ceramics-based biodegradable materials and Medical textile with unique therapeutic properties, the potential of Russian developments is already considered to be significant. Further advancement of future-oriented research and securing advantages would require development of existing and establishing new translation medicine centres, for the development of pre-clinical technologies. New materials and nanotechnologies Changes in the present image of the economy and society are to a large extent linked to largescale application of new materials and nanotechnologies in production processes and the service sectors. Among the promising topics for applied research in Russia the experts mentioned the following ones: Structural and functional materials; Hybrid materials, converging technologies, biomimetic materials and medical supplies; Diagnostics of materials; Computer simulation of materials and processes. According to optimistic assessments, the first noticeable effects, primarily in nanoelectronics, photonics, nanobiotechnology, medical products and equipment, neuroelectronic interfaces, and nanoelectromechanical systems, can be expected as early as within next five years. The largest breakthroughs of the next decade may include molecular production of macroscopic objects ( desktop nanofactories ), and emergence of atomic design. Convergence of nano-, info-, bio-, and cognitive technologies potentially may lead to extending the active stage of human life. Possibly, the above-mentioned areas would largely determine the level of technologies of the future; however, due to specific features of the field under consideration here, it does not seem possible to predict exactly which segments have the best chances of achieving breakthroughs. Large expectations are first of all associated with development of hybrid structures combining organic and non-organic fragments, live tissues and synthetic components capable of giving them new properties; with development of nanocomposites, which would allow to make materials of unique strength, elasticity and conductivity particularly important for achieving progress in alternative power engineering; with mathematical modelling of nanomaterials properties, which is expected to significantly accelerate creation of new systems with useful properties. Nanomaterials will also play a major role in dealing with economic problems, since they are at the core of advanced sensing and water treatment technologies, separation processes, and many green chemistry areas. They serve as a basis for development of numerous drugs, targeted delivery systems for them, and express diagnostics technologies for live organisms. The experts were in agreement regarding the majority of application areas - future markets for nanotechnologies and new materials. For example, the application of nanotechnologies is expected to become more active in lighting equipment, sports, textile industry as early as by 2015; and extended application of nanotechnologies in automobile and aerospace industries, shipbuilding, food industry, and construction is foreseen by In the medium term, the emergence of markets is expected, which would combine large volumes and high growth rates, specifically: nanotechnological applications in automobile production, mining and processing equipment, pharmaceutical and medical equipment, power engineering. Russia s chances for participating in these major changes, or even taking a leading position in certain areas, are largely determined by the level of future-oriented research within six most promising fields identified.

10 Unlike most of the other priority areas for applied research discussed in this report, the level of Russian R&D in nanotechnology and new materials was evaluated by the experts as quite high, particularly in such fields as Nano-size catalysts for deep processing of raw materials and Nano-structured membrane materials. However, there is also a number of white spots, where the level of Russian R&D was judged to be low. These, for example, include Construction materials for power engineering. Rational use of nature In the era of globalisation and rapid development of science and technology, natural environment becomes increasingly vulnerable. Continueing with the established inertial environment management scenario in the future is unacceptable and involves significant risks in terms of possible loss of life and limitation of economic growth. Most of the global challenges the humankind will face in the near future are connected with the environment and its inefficient management. These include, first of all, depletion of several critical resources; climate change; growing anthropogenic pressure and pollution of natural environments; loss of biodiversity, etc. Future-oriented research certainly plays a major role in developing systemics and integrated responses to these challenges. However, if the international community has already realised the importance of moving on to environmentally friendly development ( green growth ), in Russia these topics are traditionally treated on the basis of the leftover principle. Based on the results of the expert panels discussions, this report presents five thematic fields for applied research under the Rational use of nature priority area, as the most promising for Russia: Environmental protection and safety technologies; Monitoring of environment, assessment and forecasting of natural and technogenic emergencies; Rational use of natural resources; Exploration of subsoil assets, mineral prospecting and integrated development of mineral and hydrocarbon resources; Exploration and utilisation of oceanic resources, the Arctic and Antarctic. Results which could be achieved before 2030 include the development of systems for monitoring the state of environment, assessing and forecasting natural and anthropogenic emergencies; exploration and integrated development of mineral resources; highly efficient and safe techniques for marine prospecting and mining of hydrocarbons under extreme natural and climatic conditions. Their development and implementation would lead to more efficient utilisation of the country s mineral resources and their reproduction; decreasing the level of environment pollution; and minimising damage caused by natural and anthropogenic emergencies. Gradual transformation of environmental technologies from a cost item into a revenuegenerating factor contributing to increasing the investments flow and entering new markets havebecame a significant trend in recent years. According to the expert estimates, in the medium term (by 2020), the following application areas for these technologies will have the highest growth rates: environmentally clean materials and products; software and geoinformation systems; equipment and materials for increasing efficiency of mining and processing of minerals; systems for early detection and forecasting natural and anthropogenic emergencies. In the long term ( ), a significant growth is expected on water treatment and recycling markets; environmentally safe waste disposal; secondary raw materials and finished products made by recycling waste and drainage, and related equipment. For Russia, the need for future-oriented research in the rational use of nature area is due not just to the opportunities to secure significant shares of the above promising markets, but also because of the threat to lose its current positions in the traditional segments as a consequence of

11 continuous toughening of international environmental-related standards for product quality and for technologies used for their production. Solving this multifaceted problem requires advanced qualifications for Russian researchers and developers in all of the applied research areas mentioned above. Ttransportation and space systems In the near future, transportation systems will become a basis for development of accessible, inexpensive, safe, speedy and predictable transport links, both on regional and international levels. Improvement of transport communications will bring about the space compression effect i.e. distances between locations would seem much shorter to consumers of transport services. Achieving that kind of socio-economic effect involves various applied studies across the whole transportation complex, including aviation and space. The key research areas in this respaect are as follows: Models of transport-economic balance and smart transportation systems with the use of supercomputing resources at the exaflop level; New materials and technologies for construction and operation of transport infrastructure in the Arctic and sub-arctic areas; Technologies to reduce the harmful impact of transport on the environment; Technologies to ensure safe travel in difficult conditions; Small spacecraft clusters; Aircrats and spacecrafts for launching suborbital small satellites; Systems for wireless energy transmission to transport and space equipments; Systems of autonomous landing of aircrafts and landing space vehicles, and autonomous navigation of land and water vehicles; Extra-long flexible elements for static and dynamic space tether systems; Materials for the extreme conditions of space flights, high-speed travel in terrestrial and aquatic environments. First of all, efficiency of transport planning must be significantly increased by creating transport-economic balance and applying advanced modelling techniques. Increasing accessibility and quality of services, effective speed and stability of transport in the current situation of heavy traffic is a big challenge, and the only way to meet it is by developing newgeneration transport technologies. Another challenge related to organisation of high-speed transportation is the need to increase people s mobility, which was noted in the RF President s address to the Federal Assembly of 12 December, 2012 [the RF President s address to the Federal Assembly, 2012]. An efficient modern transportation complex can become a locomotive of the Russian economy, and promote the country s innovation-based development; however, creating it requires significant financial resources, which cannot be obtained exclusively from the federal budget. Therefore the key economic challenge for the transport sector is increasing its investment attractiveness which can be achieved by reducing costs, increasing efficiency of construction and maintenance of infrastructure, and increasing productivity. At the same time several international high-tech markets still look quite attractive for Russian companies. According to the expert assessments, the highest growth rates in the medium term can be expected for smart transportation systems and new management systems, environmentally safe and energy-efficient transport vehicles. Particular attention should be paid to markets whose growth rates can increase after These first of all include multimodal passenger and freight transportation and logistics systems; new materials and technologies for transport construction; prospective transport vehicles and systems; and space services. Among the most competitive areas of Russian R&D the experts noted Development of research models to study transport situation in the Arctic and subarctic areas, Development of air- and

12 spacecraft to launch suborbital small-size space satellites, and several other topics related to new-generation carrier rockets and spacecrafts, innovative transportation vehicles and systems for marine and air transport. Still, this is by no means an exhaustive list of priority S&T development areas matching the forecasted dynamics of global markets. Energy efficiency and energy saving The state of the energy industry largely determines the overall competitiveness of the economy, the society s development level and the quality of the environment. In Russia, the need to ensure long-term sustainable and efficient development of the energy industry is defined by the country s leading export positions, and the industry s role in generating government budget revenues. The industry is highly inertial, has a long investment cycle; development of new technologies involves high costs and a lot of time, and requires interdisciplinary research. Also, practically in every case there are several possible S&T development areas to pursue, and a wrong or non-optimal choice can result in major losses and increased lagging behind the leading countries of the world. Accordingly, identifying long-term global energy trends and conducting relevant future-oriented research become particularly important. The experts identified the following key areas of research for Russia: Safe nuclear power engineering; Efficient exploration and mining of fossil fuels; Efficient utilisation of renewable energy sources; Efficient and environmentally clean heat and power engineering; Prospective bioenergy; Efficient storage of electric and thermal energy; Efficient transportation of fuel and energy; Modeling prospective power generation technologies and systems; New materials and catalysts for power engineering of the future; Efficient energy consumption; Development of advanced electronic component base for power engineering; Smart power generation systems of the future; Hydrogen power; Deep processing of organic fuels. Regarding fossil fuel production, among the most important research and development areas there are robotic installations for submarine and subterranean hydrocarbon production, remotely controlled and with prolonged automated operation periods; development of technologies for efficient hydrocarbon production at nonconventional sites (including gas hydrates, oil sands, extra-heavy crude oil, shale gas, coal strata gas) and under anomalous conditions (dense formations, abnormally high pressure, ultra-deep horizons, large depths, low volume density of resources, etc.). Technologies for deep processing of off-grade resources of natural gas and lowquality coal, to produce competitive motor fuels and chemical products, are also being actively developed. A clear trend in heat and power engineering is the development of materials and technologies for making highly flexible high-power gas-turbine installations with maximum efficiency factor and minimum pollutant emissions, which in the future are going to become the foundation of major energy industry. Also under way is active research of fast reactors safety and safe closed nuclear cycle an important element of centralised electric energy supply. Future development of lowpower energy installations is connected with the production of low-temperature fuel cells with extremely high efficiency factor and long service life, without specific requirements to fuel quality, and low production and maintenance costs.

13 Policy implementation and future goals for Russian S&T Foresight The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 have been widely discussed at regular high-level expert panels, series of national and international confertences and workshops. The dissemination of results included numerous presentations at the sites of federal and regional authorities, development institutions, business associations, companies, technology platforms, innovative regional clusters, domestic and foreign universities and research centres, and international organisations. Among the beneficiaries of the Foresight results there are the government agencies in charge of formulation of STI policies; large state-owned and private corporations dealing with high-tech; development institutes supporting innovations (Rusnano, Russian Venture Company et al); regional authorities working-out regional innovation strategies and developing innovation territorial clusters. The Foresight outputs can also be used by the research community for better orientation among promising areas of research and undestanding their potential applications as well as promoting results of their research among business through the established within the project communication platforms. The business community use the project results to formulate strategies for development of enterprises and investing in technological modernisation. Practical implementation of Foresight results and their influence on the decision-making processes reflects the impact of the study. The tools for practical use of the results achieved include development detailed technology roadmaps, lists of S&T fields to be funded through government programmes and a set of policy recommendations at different levels. To some extent, this was the first case in Russia when Foresight played a role a pacemaker for building up reflexivity in the policy making system (in terms proposed by Havas et al, 2010) As it was shown above the S&T Foresight have been implemented as a kind of rolling exercise, which was to a great extent based on the previously performed projects. In its turn, it initiated wide discussions of Foresight related issues among various stakeholders, which promoted the idea of establishing a national system of technology Foresight. There were several actions made at the federal level that bring new prospects to overall S&T Foresight related activities in Russia. The S&T Foresight was mentioned in the annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly 5. A new federal law On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation adopted in June 2014 envisages S&T Foresight as one of the key components of the system of national Foresight studies. In April 2013, there was established an Interdepartmental Commission on Technology Foresight subordinated to the Presidium of the Presidential Council on Modernisation of Economy and Innovation Development of Russia. The Commission is headed by the Minister of Education and Science and includes top-level officials from government agencies, heads of large high-tech companies and leading research centres. The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 were discussed at the Commission meetings with a focus on their wide dissemination and implementation. All this creates a solid background for initiating new rounds of S&T Foresight and building linkages betweeen this activity and Foresight studies implemented by different players at the federal, sectoral, regional and corporate levels. The above presented approaches to shaping STI policy and in particular to setting priorities for allocating R&D funds, which have been increasingly used in Russia during the last decade to better inform strategic decisions and formulation long-term policies, reflect growing role of S&T as a key driver for creating future-oriented innovation capacities based on bridging the gap between research and market applications. Foresight exposes the potential of S&T to respond the Grand Challenges, which the society and economy are expected to face in the medium to long term. 5

14 CONCLUSIONS Setting long-term priorities for S&T and innovation creates a foundation for future economic growth. It determines the opportunities for entering prospective markets while creating new ones and provides a basis for technological modernisation of various sectors of the economy and for generating much-needed skilled and competent labour force. The modern trends in S&T Foresight studies, which are witnessed in many countries, reflect gradual incorporation of Foresight into the S&T policy making systems. Russia, which has been actively learning best global practices, becomes one of the global players due to the scale of its Foresight activities. To fully exploit the capacity of S&T Foresight in Russia, two major dimensions have to be taken into account. First, establishing of closer cooperation between key stakeholders is of crucial importance for wiring-up the national system of S&T Foresight. It should be targeted at involvement different government agencies and large companies in the process of building long-term visions and developing shared and coordinated policies and sets of actions. The second dimension is related to engagement of key experts (both Russian and international) from particular research areas and sectors of economy. All this will allow the transformation of Foresight into a more efficient STI policies instrument, oriented towards a long term prospective. The identified and analysed global trends in the seven priority areas of S&T development are becoming increasingly important for drawing up STI policy and for identifying the promising markets and product groups in the interest of companies of the real sector of the economy. Trends in various S&T areas are often closely interconnected, which means that in the future the most successful technologies can be widely diffused and have large indirect impacts. According to experts, among the priority sectors to be addressed by S&T in the medium and long-term are the following: energy, oil and gas processing, petrochemical industry, mechanical engineering, information and communication systems, and transportation. The major long-term socio-economic trends like post-industrial development, the shorter life cycles of industrial production, birth of glocalisation, "new industrialisation" in developed countries and others create demand for ensuring a new quality of industrial growth. It requires more efficient STI policy and intensifying the ability of economic agents to innovate. Introducing culture of technology Foresight has become a major tool for conducting studies about possible trajectories of S&T development that allow to combine and coordinate activities of the government, business and academic community in the search for the new sources of longterm growth. In Russia this is reflected in the formation of a national technology Foresight system and the development of the infrastructure and mechanisms that make possible systematic interactions between key stakeholders in the national innovation system and their participation in the development of national STI policy by the construction of legitimised and shared technological visions of the future economy. A gradual incorporation of Foresight into the S&T policy-making should be complemented with converging existing (e.g. quantitative and qualitative) as well as developing and implementing more sophisticated methods and using new sources of data provided by the growing power of ICT (Big Data, semantic search, visual presentation of Foresight data, etc.). The Russian S&T Foresight 2030 has shown that there still is a big room for further development of Foresight: methodology and organization; engagement and networking a wider expert communities (e.g. international) and citizens; invading new sectors; integrating Foresight studies at different levels (national, sectoral, regional and corporate; deeper integration into policy formulation and implementation. The steps in this direction will allow increase Foresight capacities and make it a built-in tool for STI policy.

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