De mobiliteit van morgen: Zijn we klaar voor een paradigmawissel? Brussel, Paleis der Academiën, 13 november 2018

Transcription

1 De mobiliteit van morgen: Zijn we klaar voor een paradigmawissel? Brussel, Paleis der Academiën, 13 november 2018

2 Samenstelling van de werkgroep Koen Kerckaert, Denis De Bruyne, NMBS Dirk Lauwers, UAntwerpen, Ugent Julie Mabilde, Team Vlaams Bouwmeester Cathy Macharis, VUB MOBI Alex Van Breedam, Bart Vannieuwenhuyze, TRI VIZOR Valentin Van den Balck, KVAB Yvan Verbakel, KULeuven Willy Van Overschée, KVAB (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

3 Programma KVAB missie en werking Werkgroep Mobiliteit doelstellingen Doelstellingen en deelnemers Standpunt 57, ontstaan en positionering Prof. J. Vandewalle, Voorzitter KVAB W. Van Overschée Status en Ontwikkelingen Wake up now C. Macharis Aanbevelingen en perspectieven J. Mabilde, A. Van Breedam Keynote Inleiding D. Lauwers Shifting the mobility paradigm: past successes and future challenges Prof. P. Jones, UCL Debat,Conclusies en Opvolging (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

4 De mobiliteit van morgen: Zijn we klaar voor een paradigmawissel? (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

5 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

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9 Source: MOBI, 2018

10 Source: MOBI, 2018

11 Sharing mobility as a service: any time, any place 2018 future fully automated private luxury Source: MOBI, 2018 Ownership

12 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

13 Bundelen Sharing (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

14 @MOBI, 2017

15 De mobiliteit van morgen: Zijn we klaar voor een paradigmawissel? (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

16 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit Mobiliteit en ruimte, verkeerscongestie, milieu impact en versnippering hangen samen

17 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

18 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

19 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

20 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

21 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

22 Nieuwe ontwikkelingen in mobiliteit hebben potentieel een grote impact op onze leefomgeving en ruimte Deze zijn niet per definitie positief (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

23 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit Nieuwe technologie + Het debat duurzaamheid en leefbaarheid = momentum om onze steden te herdenken

24 Radicaal durven kiezen voor gedeelde mobiliteit Copenhagenize (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

25 De mobiliteit van morgen: Zijn we klaar voor een paradigmawissel? (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

26 AANBEVELING #1 Verdichten rond knooppunten voor gedeelde mobiliteit Nabijheid van wonen, werken, ontspannen Architecture Workroom, Lage Landen (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

27 Vereniging Deltametropool en provincie Noord Holland (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

28 AANBEVELING #2 OPEN DATA Een noodzakelijke stap om tot betere samenwerking te komen

29 AANBEVELING #3 OPEN GOVERNANCE Anders dan het commercieel model van de internetgiganten (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

30 #1 EEN KNOOPPUNTENSTRATEGIE VOOR GEDEELDE MOBILITEIT #2 OPEN DATA #3 OPEN GOVERNANCE (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

31 Shifting the mobility paradigm: past successes and future challenges Keynote door Prof. Peter Jones Introductie door Prof. Dirk Lauwers (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

32 Shifting the mobility paradigm: past successes and future challenges: intro by Dirk Lauwers On the need of deep and systemic changes of the mobility system how to change the system? a quadruple helix for innovation

33 Shifting the mobility paradigm: past successes and future challenges: intro by Dirk Lauwers Introducing professor Peter Jones

34 Shifting the mobility paradigm: past successes and future challenges: Lessons from the EU CREATE project Prof Peter Jones Keynote presentation KVAB, 13 th November 2018

35 Overview Background Changing urban transport policy perspectives From car based to place based cities Triggers and drivers Implications for levels of car use Experiences globally Analytical implications Measures of success Modelling Appraisal

36 Background Cities in Europe face many challenges associated with car use: congestion, pollution, CO 2 emissions, traffic dominance, etc. These problems first emerged in Western European cities years ago, but are now common throughout Europe and beyond CREATE draws on experiences from five Western European capital cities, to see what lessons this might provide for cities in Central and Eastern Europe, which are now grappling with similar problems Presentation gives overview of policy/practice findings backed up by extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis

37 CHANGING POLICY PERSPECTIVES

38 Policy Perspectives Shape Cities

39 Policy Perspectives Shape Cities

40 Cites as Places: application to London Under a Place based emphasis, urban roads/streets are seen as having two distinct sets of functions: Movement (of people/ goods not vehicles) Place = non movement street and frontage activities London has used a 3 x 3 matrix (see above) Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland have adopted a modified version of this classification

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42 Motorway Removal: Portland Seoul Stage 1 Stage 3

43 Typical Evolutionary Trajectory in theory

44 Typical Evolutionary Trajectory in practice

45 with varying emphasis, spatially too

46 TRIGGERS FOR CHANGE

47 Internal triggers: Recognised limitations TRIGGER RESPONSE IT1: Rapid growth in car household ownership IT2: Congestion grows cannot provide enough road capacity for all to drive IT3: Movement-dominated and ugly cities C = Provide for private vehicle movement M = Provide for more efficient person movement, promoting sustainable mobility P = Recognise Place component of transport infrastructure 1

48 External triggers: Contextual factors TRIGGER ET1: Oil crisis in the 1970s ET2: Growing concerns in 1990s about cutting CO 2 emissions ET3: Growing concerns about public health: poor air quality and obesity ET4: International competitiveness, based on high quality city environments RESPONSE Strengthened case to move away from car dependency -> M Further promotion of non-car, sustainable modes -> M Encourage walking, cycling and neighbourhood planning -> M/P Strong focus on high quality city places and amenities -> P 1

49 A Typical Sequence of Triggers of Change

50 IMPACTS ON CAR USE

51 A U shaped Trajectory of Car Use Intensity

52 Evidence: Car Driver Trip Rates, over Time

53 City cluster groupings Using results from a cluster analysis, the development of at different stages can be generalized into three distinct groups Empirical findings: Roger Teoh MSc dissertation 53

54 Summary of Average Normalised Values for each group 54

55 Validation of Cluster Analysis Findings using time series data London, which is in Stage 3 in the Urban Transport Policy Development Process at present day follows Development Pathway 2. 55

56 Application to developing economies

57 The Future City? Some early signs: MaaS Accessibility planning Sharing economy New analytical methods: Socio technical systems Activity based modelling

58 This is not necessarily the same as the Smart City which could support all policy paradigms

59 ANALYTICAL ISSUES

60 Measures of Success Associated with Each Perspective

61 Pedestrian severance caused by busy main roads

62 Degree of severance caused by different types of roads

63 Severance index vs. Willingness to pay (London)

64 Indicative values subject to revision Potential intervention Value per trip 6 4 lanes lanes 1.11 Add central reservation 1.12 High medium traffic density 0.94 Medium low traffic density 0.83 Speed below 30mph 0.49 Footbridge straight pelican 0.11 Underpass straight pelican 0.51 Provisional findings

65 P/S3: Modelling for vision led planning C/Stage 1 and M/Stage 2 policies largely based on model forecasts of future travel demand ( Predict & Provide ): How much road capacity is needed? What level of rail capacity do we need to provide? Here uncertainty is a problem P/Stage 3 starts with a city vision that embraces mobility and the public realm the role of modelling ( Vision & Validate ) is to: Identify policy packages that will deliver desired outcomes Use uncertainty to stress test packages to make them as robust as possible under different futures turning the modelling process on its head

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67 Policy P: Appraisal for vision led planning C and M policies use the do minimum situation as the baseline P policies use the vision as the baseline: > This is already partly done in some cases (e.g. 20mph zones, LEZs) > This may place greater emphasis on cost effectiveness rather than costbenefit appraisal turning the appraisal process on its head

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69 Thank you!

70 Hoe ver staan we? Een panelgesprek Julie Mabilde, Team Vl. Bouwmeester Cathy Macharis, VUB, MOBI Dirk Lauwers, UAntwerpen UGent Alex Van Breedam, TRI VIZOR Matthias Dobbels, kab. P. Smet Koen Kennis, Antwerpen Jan Vermeulen, Deinze Filip Watteeuw, Gent Moderator: Veerle De Vos, VRT (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit

71 Stopt het hier? Knooppuntenstrategie Aspiration without Performance is only Philosophy (W. De Geest, 18/11/2018) Open Data Workshops over de aanbevelingen: Hoe ver staan we met de uitvoering van onze ambitie? 1. Open Governance lente 2019 Open Governance 2. Open Data herfst Knooppuntenstrategie lente 2020 (c) KVAB Werkgroep Mobiliteit