Warm up Foresight 101. Drivers of Change Geography, Economics & Social Justice. Bringing it Home Futurist, Skeptic or Enabler

Transcription

1 Warm up Foresight 101 Drivers of Change Geography, Economics & Social Justice Bringing it Home Futurist, Skeptic or Enabler

2 Education Geography Economy Social Justice vs

3 Things that will not go away Human Creativity; Face-to-Face; Reading for Pleasure; Books; Classrooms

4 Finding my inner Futurist?

5 Images Removed

6 Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand. Yo-Yo Ma

7 HISTORY & EVOLUTION OF FORESIGHT A Domain with Many Names: Futures Studies, Futurism and Strategic Foresight William Ogburn Herman Kahn Club of Rome (Growth) McKinsey/BCG 1930s Social- Technological Change 1950s Scenario- Thinking 1970s Systems Thinking 1980s Strategy as Competitive Advantage

8 Future as Multiple Outcomes, Time Horizons Scenario B Scenario C Past Present Expected future Plan A Scenario E

9 Cone of Plausibility Sources of Change S.T.E.E.P. Categories Society Technology Environment Economics Politics

10 Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change Trends (Continuities) Plausible Future Forecasts Events (Discontinuities) Possible Futures Scenarios Choices (Discontinuities) Preferred Futures Visions

11 Four Futures Thinking Disciplined / Constrained Transformed? Continued Growth Decline / Collapse * Jim Dator, University of Hawaii

12 Foresight as Fabric of Institutional Community Culture Managing Student (and Parent) Expectations for Career Arcs Here & Now 1-3 Years On-the- Horizon 3-7 years Over the- Horizon Beyond 7 Years Planning Horizon Focus on Execution Strategic Horizons Focus on Learning & Exploring Implications * HT, Richard Lum, VFS

13 The great thing in this world is not so much where we are, but in what direction we are moving. Oliver Wendell Holmes Thinking about the Future By Andy Hines and Peter Bishop The Lords of Strategy By Walter Kiechel The Five Futures Glasses By Pero Micic

14 Fundamentals of Foresight Identifying & Monitoring Change Exploring Implications Communicating Change Horizon Scanning Issues Analysis STEEP Categories Society Technology Economics Environment Politics Forecasts Scenarios Visioning Planning / Roadmaps Goals Objectives - Actions Assessment & Evaluation Iterative Planning

15 Trend Diffusion Frameworks Resolution / Plateau of Issues & Trends Degree of Public Awareness Framing of Issues & Trends Mainstreaming of Issues & Trends Emerging Issues & Trends References Over Time

16 Emerging Issue : Institutional Use of Personal Data Take Orders 2016 US Supreme Court Rules on Business Rights to use Personal Data Influence Change

17 Forecast based Thinking: Confidence in assumptions Stable marketplace/culture Focus on Extrapolation (What should happen) Scenario Thinking: Unsure of right assumptions Markets shaped by uncertainty Focus on Discontinuities (What could happen)

18 Trend Cards: Scenario Platforms

19 Learning to Rehearse the Future: Instant Scenarios & Trend Cards + Event Your Scenario: Life in 2022

20 Story of Future: Events Summer 2018 India Heirs donate $2.5Bfor Tata Museums across California November 2015 Local Legislation California, Michigan & Mississippi pass local legislation effecting food, energy and cultural orgs. May 21, 2017 China Civil War California opens doors to 1m refugees October 4, 2019 End of 501c Tax Code Sept 2019 Apple buys Disney announces age of retail experience entertainment January 2016 Zuckerberg subsidizes Universal Pass to arts and cultural institutions January 2017 California passes 12 year old Mobility License remotely supervised transportation for youth [aka Soccer Mom Bill ]

21 Learning to Rehearse the Future: Instant Scenarios & Trend Cards Character A Character B 2022: A Day in the Life Morning School / Office Activity/ Shopping Home / Family Time

22 Review Questions Scenario Drivers of Change: What other trends and possible events might support the future described in this scenario? Are there trends or events that might refute this scenario or make it make it less plausible? Implications: What are the implications for (e.g. programs, partnerships, leadership, et al)? ideas Strategies: What might people communities, and institutions (local/global) do differently to thrive in this future? Describe longitudinal tools and activities that might be relevant to this scenario. Scenario Thinking: Where might the story go from here? Where does this future lead beyond what you've heard?

23 FRAMEWORK: SCENARIO FORCE FIELD ANALYSIS Scenario Name Today Restraining Forces Pulling You Away from Scenario Driving Forces Pushing You Towards the Scenario

24 Tips on Applying Futures Wheels When to Apply Trend Cards / Scenario Thinking When there is uncertainty related to how multiple trends and events could play out When you want a quick way to force your team into a different vision Learn to point to historical examples of far-reaching outcomes in the world of business (e.g. US Govt bailout of GM; Google buying Motorola) ideas

25 FORESIGHT TOOLS Qualitative Focus: Scanning Scenarios Simulations & Games Backcasting Genius Forecasting Morphological Analysis Role-playing Ambient Futures Casual Layered Analysis Futures Wheel Relevance Tree Appreciative Inquiry Qual-Quant Hybrid Delphi Survey Cross Impact Analysis Survey / Focus Group Agent Modeling CA Systems Modeling Decision Modeling Gartner Hype Cycle Text Mining S-Curve Analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation Roadmapping Fisher-Pry Analysis Quantitative Trend Extrapolation Benchmarking Patent Analysis Systems Dynamics Probability Forecasting Monte Carlo Models

26 Additional Resource: Strategic Questions to Consider The following strategic questions are helpful in engaging colleagues conversations about the future. Trends are slow changes over time; they reveal direction & momentum. Which trends are most likely to converge? Which trends are most likely to have the greatest impact? Which trends have the most uncertainty in terms of implications/outcomes/solutions? Events are moments that can amplify or lead to discontinuities of existing trends. With your colleagues, list and describe potential implications of: Scheduled Events (e.g. Elections; Civic/Cultural Events; Campus events) Plausible Events (e.g. End of 501c3; Student Financial Aid Legislation] Wildcard Events High impact, low probability (e.g. Bio; Cyber attack) Choices reflect investments and actions towards a preferred future. With your colleagues, list and describe potential implications of: Institutional Choices (e.g. Capital Campaigns; Academic Programs; Staff Training) Plausible Events (e.g. Wildcard Events High impact, low probability (e.g. Bio; Cyber attack)

27 Warm up Foresight 101 Drivers of Change Geography, Economics & Social Justice Bringing it Home Futurist, Skeptic or Enabler

28 Geography

29 West, West Since East, West Beyond South, South

30 The Big Stories: Aging & Rise of Youth Culture

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32 Demographics 101 Youth Culture & Population Pyramids

33 Japan

34 Global Spectrum of Young Audiences U.S. vs Nigeria

35 Demographics + Lifestyle Transformation Source: Gapminder.org

36 Demographics + Lifestyle Transformation The new Global Middle Class Source: Gapminder.org

37 Global Spectrum of Young Audiences New Generation of Parents

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43 Geopolitics, Economics & Arts Movements Trends, Issues & Uncertainties Tribal Dynamics vs Nation-state Global Cultural Exchanges Institution Building Abroad Travel & Tourism Continued Fragmentation & Integration in Formats Entertainment & Cultural Consumption Patterns Digital Adoption & Applications Philanthropy & Business Models

44 Social Justice

45 . Providence, RI has launched a campaign to close their community Word Gap. The effort includes providing families with devices that listen to the number of words children hear each day. True False

46 Closing the Word Gap & Crossing the Creepy Line: Aligning Policy, Family Culture and Technology

47 What s Ahead: Creepy or Compelling?

48 Outputs Mission: Access & Summative Testing Outcomes Mission: Behavior Change & Mastery of Skills

49 The Buzz on the Future of Community Engagement Local 2.0 Active Aging Civicware Alternative Crypto Currencies Participatory Planning Place-making Design Thinking Crowdfunding Sharing Economy Third Places Innovation Districts Social Entrepreneurship

50 Civicware: Engagement & Data-driven Insights (Tools & Databases)

51 Elevating Understanding of Key Indicators

52 Future of Community Service & Engagement Liberal Arts Foundation Graduates Who Thrive at Intersections of Change

53 Data Science Analytics User Experience Design Adaptive Design Behavior Change Neuroscience Policy Civicware Leadership Art Natural Resources Sensing Technologies Software Robotics Aging Demographics Millennial Family Formation Youth Culture Urban Studies South-to-South Economy Cities Health-Wellness Food Textiles Clothing Manufacturing Insurance Transportation Mobility Education Training Small Farming

54 The Impact Genome Project (IGP) is a systematic way to codify and quantify the factors that drive social outcomes. 12 major areas of social change, including: Education, Youth Development, Health, Culture & Identity and Critical Human Needs

55 Social Impact & Data Science We recently conducted two months of fieldwork in order to update the algorithm that we use to estimate the impact of one of our products, Brilliance, and we hope you might be as interested to hear the underlying reasons as we were. The end result was a 28% reduction in the three numbers that we track to measure the impact of Brilliance, but a significant increase in the confidence we have in our estimations and a much more nuanced understanding of how Brilliance is being used in hospitals.

56 Behavior Change & Health Outcomes EveryDose, EveryDay initiative Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

57 Financial Services & Social Dynamics

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60 Million Dollar Blocks spatialinformationdesignlab.org/

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62 Out of Sight, Out of Mind Project

63 Learn More

64 In early 2015, Palo Alto High School will launch a pilot program providing students with neuro headware for use during studying and class sessions True False

65 Future of Learning Adaptive Learning Learning Graph Mindfulness The Overwhelmed Student

66 Assumption: The Overwhelmed Student becomes a public health issue By 2020, students will seek non-traditional solutions to overcome mental wellness challenges

67 Intentional, accepting and non-judgmental focus Mindfulness: State of active, open attention on the present. Observing your thoughts and feelings from a distance, without judging them good or bad. (Psychology Today)

68 may help: The Business Case Mindfulness Notice when a decision should or could be made; See ethical challenges Increase goal awareness Gathering information and insights; Facilitate option generation More Open to Feedback & Collaboration Natalia Karelaia Jochen Reb

69 Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation

70 Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation

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72 The Collaborative Economy

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75 Anticipating Pull and Push Factors of Economic Localization

76 Teaching Students to Use a Critical Lens on Localization Efforts

77 The Question to Explore: How does curriculum, teacher and the classroom fit into an adaptive learning world? Source:

78 Preparing Concordia for Age of Adaptive Learning Exploratory Phase: Assess Platforms, Tools & Content Integration Understand Student & Teacher Adoption Dynamics Build Roadmap & Monitor Case Studies for Distance & In-class

79 Economy

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81 Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data

82 Graph-Database = Connections are Most Important Entity (Node) Relationship Relationship Relationship Entity (Node)

83 Teaching in the Age of Graph Databases Connected Data = Drives Work & Learning Experiences Link Graph Interest Graph Social Graph Health Graph??? Learning Graph A Neo4j = Graph Database

84 Garry s Social Graph

85 Garry s Connections via Lisa Bodell

86 Garry s Learning Graph: What I know, How I know it, What is yet to explore?!

87 Personal Data Revolution, Meet Lifelong Learning Where is Learning Data Stream?

88 Early Days of Capturing Learning Experiences Where does the teacher-college relationship fit into this puzzle? Experience Streams <Actor, Verb, Object> I did this Learning Record Store (LRS) Individual Control over Access to Learning Data Content & Relationship with: Schools, Libraries, Employers & Media

89 Learning Activity Streams <Actor, Verb, Object> I did this Activity Statements: Thomas Discovers Poetry Thomas liked a Lucile Clifton poem he heard on itunes Concordia teacher invited Thomas to a campus poetry event Thomas enrolled in a creative writing class at the local library Thomas read Alice Walker for his creative writing course Concordia teacher recommended an obscure Rita Dove poem Thomas performed his poetry at a local café event Library invited Thomas to a program on self-publishing Thomas self-published his first collection of poems Concordia library added his book to their collection

90 College Experiences based on a Learning Map (Connected Experiences from Learning Graph) History of Jazz Expert Level Basic Level In Progress Advocate: Danny Hillis

91 Creative Aging: Intersection Arts, Social Services & Learning The MetLife Foundation Alzheimer s Poetry Project Songwriting Works (Health & Wellness)

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94 How can we gain more insights about implications of aging? Simulation & Spectrum of Aging Experiences

95 Emerging Policy & Marketplace Strategy= Aging-in-Place Network Delivers Independent Living Solutions to Reduce Liabilities & Costs Linking Patients + Families/Friends + Doctors Smart Homes, Connected Devices & Activity Sensor Networks

96 Readiness Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency Ready Somewhat Ready Not Ready Not Urgent Important Urgency Urgent Critical

97 Readiness Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency Ready Online Delivery Somewhat Ready Badges Graph-based Analytic Tools Mindfulness Not Ready Intelligent Assistants Not Urgent Important Urgent Critical Urgency

98 I want to Encourage Others Interesting stuff. No time, but I want to empower my team. Challenge: Host a Concordia University Failfaire in May 2015 Create a Campus Culture of Smart Risk-taking Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships Invite your students to deliver stories at Failfaire

99 Garry Golden Two R s PDF & Resources garrygolden.com/concordia2014

100 Era-based Leadership Framework: Rerforming vs Transforming Incremental Innovation Within an Era versus Transformational Innovation Across New Eras

101 S-Curve Shape of Major & Minor Eras? Plateau of Change Mainstreaming Rapid Change Accelerating Disruptions lead to Next Era!!! Slow Change Emerging

102 Eras of Mobility Planes /Rockets Cars Rail Boats Human / Animals What is next? Autonomous Sub-orbital

103 Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development 2050 Software Supported Human Driving

104 Eras of Manufacturing Silicon Plastics Clay Stone Wood Copper Bronze Iron-Steel What is next? Carbon Biomaterials

105 Eras of Communication Social Media Broadcast Media One-to-One Machine-to- Machine M2M

106 Eras of Education/Learning Era of Apprenticeship Era of Institution Era of Learner Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy

107 ERAS OF INNOVATION: LEARNING Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy Learner Era Lifelong Learning Beyond Institutions Software-mediated Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work Institutional / Teacher Era Public Schools (Life stage) Professional Teachers Core curriculum Local Market/ Apprenticeship Era Local Tradition Elders as Teachers Class-based Occupation

108 Learn More:

109 Signal Team Activity: Futures (Implications) Wheel Team Activity Goals To explore far-reaching implications of trends, events and choices To surface assumptions about the nature of social change and need for innovation. To identify hunting ground opportunities for future innovation [30 minutes]

110 Worksheet: Futures Implications Wheel Second Order Implication Third Order Implication Blue Arrows: Opportunities Financial (e.g. Investment, Revenue) Market (e.g. Expanded Segmentations) New Internal (e.g. Skills & Capacities ) New Behavior (e.g. More transactions) First Order Implication Scan Hit / Event Red Arrows: Constraints Resources (e.g. Lack of; Higher Costs) Offerings (e.g. Cannibalize offerings) Market Size (e.g. Narrow Segmentation) Policy Change (e.g. New Regulation) Wild cards (e.g. Product recall)

111 Signals Team Activity: Process side of the Futures Wheel? Event Scan Hit Inspired Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes

112 Trend: Demand for Portable Power Power Plants $1 $10 $100 $1000 Unplugging / Personal Fuel Packets

113 Scan Hit Example Could Apple disrupt the energy industry? or the Housing Construction industry?

114 5 Year Plan Fuel-based Devices House Construction without Electrical Sockets Unplug Refuel Fuel-cell on a Chip The Cordless Christmas #1 Fuel Distributor

115 Signals Team Activity: Process side of the Futures Wheel? Event Scan Hit Inspired Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes

116 Signals Team Activity: Setting up Headlines for the Futures Wheel Red Cards Negative Outcomes Green Cards Positive Outcomes

117 Signals Team Activity: Prompt Cards Help with Creating Headlines PAGE 117