Integrated assessments to support the Dutch government: lessons learned
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1 Integrated assessments to support the Dutch government: lessons learned Willem Ligtvoet 6 & 7 February 2013 London 1
2 Background and overview 2005: First national assessment of effects of climate change in the Netherlands (PBL, 2005) 2006: Four climate change scenarios for the Netherlands (KNMI, 2006) 2007: Adoption of a National Adaptation Strategy (Ministry VROM) 2007: First long-term assessment of flood protection challenges and options for a climate resilient delta (PBL, 2007) 2009: Advice of 2nd Delta Committee 2009: Extension of climate change scenarios 2006 (KNMI, 2009) 2010: Launching of Delta Programme with focus on: - flood protection - freshwater supplies - urban development (urban flooding, heath) 2
3 2011: Strategic options for a climate-proof development of the Netherlands (PBL, 2011) 2012: Update of effects of climate change in the Netherlands (PBL, 2012) 2012: Audit of national adaptation strategy (Netherlands Court of Audit) 2012: To be expected - integrated strategy on mitigation and adaptation (Ministry Infrastructure and Enviropnment) 2012/2013: Exploration of adaptation strategies within Delta Programme 2014: Expected strategic decissions of Delta Deltaprogramma on: - flood protection - freshwater supplies - urban development 3
4 Key players Research institutes KNMI RIVM KIM Deltares Federal government Min. IenM Delta Programme Local authorities - Provinces - Municipalities Universities. Funded research Programmes: - Room for Climate - Knowledge for Climate PBL NEAA CPB Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ARK Netherlands Court of Audit 4
5 Two types of Assessments Exploring challenges/risks Exploring solutions Characteristics Monitoring effects of climate change Exploring the potential future ranges of climate change and effects Combining uncertainties in socio-economic development and climate change Addressing worst cases Analysis of vulnerabilities and uncertainties => Problem definition 5 Often more sectoral orientated Designed for policy support (also for local authorities) Also backcasting Dealing with uncertainties: designing adaptive policy strategies ( policies with uncertainties )
6 Original role of PBL: interfacing science policy Lessons learned: - Information and network society makes a very complex communication model - Change of status of science in media-society: science seems just an opinion - Role of PBL has changed: now one of the many players, but position as brooker between science and policy is not disputed - Process of assessments as important as the result/product - Be close to the policy-making process, but be aware of your independent status - Be flexible in framing the problems and solutions 6
7 Challenges - 3 challenges in process: i) integrating scientific fields and debating scientific base and uncertainties, ii) increase interaction with policy and iii) with society (stakeholder participation) - Transition in assessments: from exploring challenges and risks towards exploring solutions: how to design and present useable adaptive strategies? - From What to How more attention needed for governance aspects - Policy agenda is leading how to translate long-term adaptive strategies into manageble steps, within recognisable policy frames? 7
8 Thank you 8
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