EUPHEME. Prof Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading, UK

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1 EUPHEME Prof Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading, UK

2 EUPHEME EUPHEME is a 3-year 2.5M project funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET (Coordinator: Peter Stott) Started Sept 2017 and ends in Sept 2020 The vision of EUPHEME is to place weather extremes in the context of climate variability and change, thereby helping European citizens to adapt to a changing climate and mitigate its worst effects

3 EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events 2. Develop a scientific platform to carry out attribution analyses 3. i) Provide user-oriented syntheses ii) Disseminate consistent attribution assessments iii) Demonstrate the potential of attribution products

4 EUPHEME Partners The EUPHEME Partners are: Met Office, UK KNMI, Netherlands NCAS, Reading, UK Met Éireann, Ireland Météo France, France CGCRI, Czech Republic CNRS, France BRGM, France

5 EUPHEME Partners The EUPHEME Partners are: Met Office, UK KNMI, Netherlands NCAS, Reading, UK Met Éireann, Ireland Météo France, France CGCRI, Czech Republic CNRS, France BRGM, France Wider Community

6 The ERA4CS ERA-NET EUPHEME is funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET The aim of ERA4CS is to undertake Fundamental research to develop Climate Services Two-thirds of EUPHEME is funded by in-kind contributions from partners (the additional funding is from the European Commission)

7 The ERA4CS ERA-NET EUPHEME is funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET The aim of ERA4CS is to develop Fundamental research to develop Climate Services Two-thirds of EUPHEME is funded by in-kind contributions from partners (the additional funding is from the European Commission) EUPHEME represents a substantial commitment by its partners to further the science of climate attribution, increase its societal relevance and develop a prototype platform for future operational services.

8 Research & Development Services Stage 0: Proof of Concept EUCLEIA E U P H E M E C20C+, World Weather Attribution, IDAG and other research initiatives TRL 3 C3S 1 st GA End of EUCLEIA Attribution Workshop ECMWF scoping meeting C o p e r n i c u s C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Stage 1: Pre-Operational Met Office Seasonal system for event attribution Stage 2: Op: 20ECVs 5-6 Sectors Prototype service website TRL 4 Stage 3: Operational: 30ECVs 10 Sectors End of EUPHEME TRL 5 TRL 6 TRL 7-9 Operational Attribution Services

9 EUPHEME E U P H E M E TRL 1 TRL 2 TRL 3 TRL 4 TRL 5 TRL 6 TRL 7 TRL 8 TRL 9 Basic principles observed Technology concept formulated Experimental proof of concept Technology validated in lab Technology validated in relevant environment Technology demonstrated in relevant environment System prototype demonstration in operational env. System complete and qualified System proven in operational environment

10 Research & Development Services Stage 0: Proof of Concept EUCLEIA E U P H E M E C20C+, World Weather Attribution, IDAG and other research initiatives TRL 3 C3S 1 st GA End of EUCLEIA Attribution Workshop ECMWF scoping meeting C o p e r n i c u s C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Stage 1: Pre-Operational Met Office Seasonal system for event attribution Stage 2: Op: 20ECVs 5-6 Sectors Prototype service website TRL 4 Stage 3: Operational: 30ECVs 10 Sectors End of EUPHEME TRL 5 TRL 6 TRL 7-9 Operational Attribution Services

11 EUPHEME Workpackage and project structure of EUPHEME

12 EUPHEME WP1: User Needs WP1 aims at bridging the gap to tailor climate change attribution products to specific sectors Identify sectoral issues to demonstrate the benefits of an operational attribution service for Europe Establish a dialogue to develop a common understanding of event attribution, including uncertainties and implications for decision making

13 EUPHEME WP1: User Needs WP1 aims at bridging the gap to tailor climate change attribution products to specific sectors Identified Sectors: Policy makers, insurance, legal and media Establish user group to: i) identify needs ii) co-develop & co-evaluate prototype service in WP4

14 EUPHEME WP2: New Methods Event Definition Model Evaluation Attribution Analyses Synthesis Developing new methods for Event Definition Impacts models (e.g. flood modelling); more complex phenomena (e.g storms) Model evaluation and robustness Using Reliability to evaluate models Coupled versus uncoupled attribution

15 EUPHEME WP2: New Methods Event Definition Model Evaluation Attribution Analyses Synthesis Developing new methods for Attribution Analysis New statistical methods Flow dependent attribution Inverse attribution: What was the likelihood of a past event? E.g. cold Januarys in France Courtesy of Robert Vautard, LCSE

16 EUPHEME WP2: New Methods Event Definition Model Evaluation Attribution Analyses Synthesis Developing new methods to synthesise results Weighted average of risk ratio results from statistical methods and dynamical models Risk Ratio Ethiopian Drought 2015: Risk ratios from statistical methods and dynamical models (Philip et al. 2017, J. Clim) Courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI

17 EUPHEME WP3: Shared Platform Development of an scientific event attribution platform 1. Development of an attribution web processing service based on the KNMI Climate Explorer 2. Development of a scientific collaboration site (e.g. online lab book, co-author papers, )

18 EUPHEME WP3: Shared Platform Development of an shared event attribution platform Application of methods and synthesis for test cases Two rapid attribution cases e.g. automated use of 12km EURO- Cordex simulations From Month 12, seasonal retrospectives Courtesy of Robert Vautard, LCSE The Summer 2017 record heat in Med regions Indicator = Tx mean JJA over Med area

19 WP4: Delivering a prototype user-oriented attribution service An attribution service website developed in consultation with stakeholders (via WP1) WP4 aims to: Extreme Events in a Changing Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate Deliver a prototype service website for the dissemination of attribution information Develop protocols for the effective communication of information Demonstrate how attribution of impacts can be part of a developing attribution service Crown copyright Met Office Courtesy of Nikos Christidis, Met Office

20 EUPHEME: Summary EUPHEME is a 3-year 2.5M project funded through the ERA4CS ERA-NET ( ) Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events Develop a scientific platform to carry out attribution analyses Provide user-oriented syntheses; disseminate consistent attribution assessments (including uncertainties); demonstrate the potential of attribution products

21 EUPHEME WP2: New Methods Event Definition Model Evaluation Attribution Analyses Synthesis Developing new methods for Event Definition Impacts models (e.g. flood modelling) and more complex phenomena (e.g storms) Model evaluation and robustness Using Reliability to evaluate models Coupled versus uncoupled attribution

22 EUPHEME

23 EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events on a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability 2. Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists from partner institutions to carry out attribution analyses using complementary methods and data sources 3. Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments through a prototype attribution service website and demonstrate the potential of attribution products to a wide variety of stakeholders

24 EUPHEME Objectives 1. Develop state of the art methods for the attribution of extreme climate and weather events on a range of timescales, and new techniques for evaluating their reliability 2. Develop a scientific platform which hosts data, supports data processing and provides collaboration space for scientists from partner institutions to carry out attribution analyses using complementary methods and data sources 3. Provide a user-oriented synthesis, disseminate consistent attribution assessments through a prototype attribution service website and demonstrate the potential of attribution products to a wide variety of stakeholders