Climate Change Service

Transcription

1 Service C3S beyond 2020

2 C3S beyond 2020 Consolidation elements will have been operational only for 2 years New service elements based on user demand Decadal, attribution Take progressively advantage of Sentinel data in building CDRs and ECV products Mid-term review, surveys & economic impact analysis (PwC ) CO2 mission sentinel 7

3 C3S beyond 2020 Three priorities: Service consolidation at large Enhancement of the CDS and operationalisation of SIS offer Promotion of user uptake (i.e. EU policies, downstream service providers, media, academia..)

4 C3S : Current Vision Still Valid Authoritative voice for Europe Subsidiarity Stimulate the market for climate services

5 C3S : Current Vision Still Valid Authoritative Voice for Europe Operational provision of critical climate information: Monitoring tool for COP21 Paris agreement ( we will help you improve your reporting ), UNFCCC, WMO European State of Develop an attribution function; identified targets: media & planner Increase support to policy/decision making process by addressing more sectoral oriented issues Enhanced reference reanalysis datasets Including more ECVs/indicators as needed

6 C3S : Current Vision Still Valid Subsidiarity Take stock of European infrastructure and complement national climate services at European level. involve closely national expertise (Met services, universities, governments) and increase outreach and capacity building in Central/Eastern Europe (training, dedicated use cases, etc.). Subsidiarity expands to outside Europe. More direct contribution to GFCS agenda, support developing countries (via DG Dev Co, World Bank), and SDGs at large

7 C3S Current Vision Still Valid Stimulate the market for climate services Expand capabilities of CDS/CDS toolbox and expert training Direct approach with communities of practice (in concertation with European DGs). Develop decadal predictions service to address a strong demand (~10 years) from the market. Including a verification service

8 What is new? Direct support to Paris Agreement, UNFCCC, WMO, GCOS,.. Attribution Service Decadal Prediction Service (including verification) Direct link with communities of practice serving our User DGs

9 C3S and EU Policies See C3S Technical Annex Attribution Service: (UNFCCC, 2013) Decision 2/CP.19: Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts. ( (UNFCCC, 2014) Briefing note: Initial meeting of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts. ( (UNFCCC, 2012) Report on the expert meeting on assessing the risk of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. ( (UNFCCC, 2012) Technical paper: Current knowledge on relevant methodologies and data requirements as well as lessons learned and gaps identified at different levels, in assessing the risk of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. ( Decadal Prediction Service (including verification): C3S User Requirement study ( European Roadmap for Services

10 C3S 2.0 portfolio Portfolio A: CDS core products B: SIS indicators C: Evaluation and Quality Control D: Outreach and Communicati on Product high level description observations More Observational gridded products (ECVs) Global and regional climate reanalyses Multi-model seasonal forecasts Initialised climate predictions (decadal) Global and regional climate projections Impact Indicators, either generic or sector-specific, covering the economic sectors of water, energy, agriculture, insurance, health, infrastructure, tourism, biodiversity, etc. Use cases and demo cases for various sectors Sectoral workflows and applications Quality Assurance for CDS: quality assurance, traceability, product quality, quality of service, verification service Quality Assurance for SIS: quality assurance, fitness for purpose, User Requirement Data Base (URDB), User Requirement Analysis Document (URAD) Web content provision and management Monthly and Annual Statement of Marketing, fact sheets, success stories, etc. Attribution Service component Events: Workshops, Assemblies, conferences Training

11 Attribution Service Component Rationale: High interest from the society (media, policy makers, planners) Event attribution studies aim at providing a rigorous scientific approach to determine to what extent weather-related risks have changed due to human influences on climate. Process: Brainstorming with key stakeholders to revisit the attribution science state of play (Prague workshop, October 2017) Ongoing study to define a publishable protocol for operational attribution, together with requirements on data and tools Reference: Validation of this protocol by the scientific community commission a "prototype" Attribution service element towards a possible operational Attribution component for C3S next generation. C3S Technical Annex (page 34) C3S precursor project EUCLEIA EU court to hear citizens' climate case against EU EN

12 Decadal Component Rationale: Current user requirements surveys and discussions with C3S stakeholders clearly indicate the need for information at decadal timescales. Current gap in the Service Process: Workshop (early 2019) involving key stakeholders, the scientific and user community Take stock of the existing state-of-play (WMO operational initiative, C3S climate projections roadmap recommendations, projects e.g. EUCP, etc.) Assess the level of maturity of decadal prediction (including verification) science. Agree and design a prototype decadal component before the end of the current Delegation Agreement Credit: WCRP Reference: C3S User Requirement study ( S European Roadmap for Services

13 C3S reanalysis proposal for next phase User requirements: - quality' - High resolution - As far back as possible - Uncertainties - Additional products - Latest ECMWF model - Timely delivery - Easy access - Great user support : Regional reanalyses Outsourced Pan-Arctic, Europe Extension to centennial : ERA5 from ERA5T: preliminary data at short delay (<2 days) - ERA5L: 9km global land products : Centennial reanalysis - From 1851, coupled ocean, moderate resolution - Benchmarks: CERA-20C, 20CRv3 - Input data from C3S in situ databases : Production ERA6 - Coupled ocean, high resolution - EUMETSAT reprocessed data, C3S satellite data rescue - ERA6L with enhanced land data assimilation : Joint CAMS/C3S reanalysis - Coupled chemistry - From 1979, updated at short delay

14 C3S Seasonal Forecast 10- year outlook User requirements: - Multi-model products - High resolution - Uncertainties - Use cases - Additional products - Latest model developments - Timely delivery - Easy access - Great user guidance and support Context: Multi-model Seasonal forecast system based on inputs from: ECMWF, UKMO, MF, DWD, CMCC + NCEP, JMA, (ECCC?, BoM?), more? Authoritative multi-model products Links with RCCs/RCOFs, other multimodel approaches, etc. Improved timeliness, ensemble size, resolution?

15 C3S beyond 2020, main elements CDS: Target ~ 35 ECVs/ Indicators Step-up with sentinel reprocessing (will feed into the above) Ambitious reanalysis programme (global + regional) New service on decadal prediction SIS: Operational production, CIIs feeding into State of, EEA -Adapt platform, JRC, Focus on use cases to showcase applications Closer link with EU DG needs EQC: Quality Assurance for all (CDS, SIS, OUTREACH) Continual user requirement management, usability and quality of service assessment

16 C3S beyond 2020, main elements Outreach: Web content, fact sheets, press releases, external conferences, e-training modules, summer schools, etc. Enhanced media activities New: Attribution Service component (serves other purposes)