S P A C E TOURISM II Lecture Series given by Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander Goehlich 2003 by Robert A. Goehlich ようこそ

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Fall Semester 2004 Part 12 No. 1 TM S P A C E TOURISM II Lecture Series given by Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander Goehlich 2003 by Robert A. Goehlich ようこそスペースツーリズム II レクチャーへ - Part 12: NASA and U.S. Industry: Space Tourism and Beyond - General Contact Dr.

1 Fall Semester 2004 Part 12 No. 1 TM S P A C E TOURISM II Lecture Series given by Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander Goehlich 2003 by Robert A. Goehlich ようこそスペースツーリズム II レクチャーへ - Part 12: NASA and U.S. Industry: Space Tourism and Beyond - General Contact Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander GOEHLICH Mobile: +81-(0) Fax: +81-(0) mail@robert-goehlich.de Internet: Ms. Akiko FUJIMOTO (Teaching Assistant) Mobile: +81-(0) af @yahoo.co.jp Mr. Kenji HASEGAWA (Webmaster) Mobile: n.a. malayzaru@hotmail.com No. 2 Keio University Department of System Design Engineering Ohkami Laboratory (Space System Engineering) Office / Hiyoshi Kohoku-ku Yokohama JAPAN

2 Content No. 3 General Guest Speaker: Mr. A.C. Charania, Senior Futurist, SpaceWorks Engineering Inc., USA Note: The following slides were provided courtesy of Mr. A.C. Charania Requests from Audience for Lectures Recent Developments in Space Commercialization from Industry and NASA: Tourism and Beyond Revision A 08 December 2004 Senior Futurist: Mr. A.C. Charania Note: Images used here are for educational purposes and are property of respective owners, observations are solely personnel opinions of the author and do not represent the views of the organization Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 4

3 Perspectives on the Problem Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 5 Destinations: Transportation Links and Infrastructure Segments Sun, Mercury, Venus Sun-Earth L 1, L 2 Earth High Earth Orbit Earth-Moon L 1, L 2 Low Earth Orbit Moon Earth s Neighborhood Accessible Planetary Surfaces Mars and Asteroids Outer Planets and beyond Base Image source: Gary L. Martin, Space Architect, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA s Strategy for Human and Robotic Exploration, June 10, 2003 Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 6

4 Elements of Space Exploration Low Earth Orbit Elements/Factors International Space Station Space Shuttle Operations LEO Communications Constellations Remote Sensing Future Opportunities GEO Elements/Factors Communications Satellites Future Opportunities Other Architecture Elements/Factors Earth-to to-orbit Transportation Space Transportation Communications Networks and Information Systems In the Future: Development of Neighboring Bodies and Moons Infrastructures Expendable Vehicles Space Shuttle, etc. Uppers Stages Space Transfer Vehicles (Crew/Cargo) In-Space Infrastructures Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 7 Perspectives on the Challenge of Exploration AND/OR Science-Driven and Technology-Enabled Exploration Mission Options Societal Values Driven AND/OR Market-Driven and Technology-Enabled Commercial Development of Space Options Innovative Technologies Advanced Concepts Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 8

5 What Defines Value? Sample Figures of Merit (FOMs) Quantitative Weights and Sizing Dry Weight Gross Weight Packaging Legend Normally Examined Normally Not Examined Figures of Merit Cost DDT&E Cost Acquisition Cost Cost to First Unit Average Cost per Mission Safety and Reliability Loss of Mission Reliability (LOM) Loss of Vehicle Reliability (LOV) Loss of Crew Reliability (LOC) Expected number of vehicle losses (by segment) Value of expected loss over the entire campaign Qualitative Expert Commercial Benefits Industrial Base and International Cooperation Synergies Abort Options Evolvability Technology Maturity Integration Difficulty Surface Operations Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 9 The Current Situation Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 10

Current Launch Capabilities Engineering Today,

Comparison: LEO Cargo 60 Historical Forecast

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2012 2013 2003 Projections 2004 Projections

Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous

Associate Administrator for Commercial Space

6 Current Launch Capabilities Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 11 Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison: LEO Cargo 60 Historical Forecast Launches Projections 1999 Projections Projections 2002 Projections 10 Actual 2001 Projections Projections 2004 Projections Source: Sloan, John, 2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST), May 20, Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 12

The Price of Things PER POUND TO GET TO LOW

klbs) $7k - $12k - Boeing Delta IV (20-50 klbs)

5 klbs)-estimated $4k - Space X Falcon V (11

$14M $20M - Deposit on Sub-Orbital Flight $98

flights in a 727 $3k - HALO jump at 30k ft $3k

7 The Price of Things PER POUND TO GET TO LOW EARTH ORBIT (LEO) - Space Shuttle Cost (60 klbs) $7k - $12k - Boeing Delta IV (20-50 klbs) $3k - $7k - Boeing Delta II (6-13 klbs) $5k - $7k - ILS Proton (45 klbs) $2k - $2.5k - Space X Falcon I (1.5 klbs)-estimated $4k - Space X Falcon V (11 klbs)-estimated $1k PER PERSON - Soyuz to ISS $14M $20M - Deposit on Sub-Orbital Flight $98 $200k - Fly to the South Pole $33k - 20 Zero-G flights in a 727 $3k - HALO jump at 30k ft $3k Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 13 Short Term Space Tourism Prospects Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 14

8 SpaceShipOne and The X-Prize Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 15 The Envisioned Future Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 16

DARPA Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch

(DARPA) Reusable airplane-like first stage Expendable

new design First stage (MPV) will utilize MIPCC

Phase-1 Winners: - Coleman Research Corp.

- Pioneer Rocketplane - Space Launch Corp.

9 DARPA Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch (RASCAL) Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Reusable airplane-like first stage Expendable second stage First stage could be heritage aircraft or new design First stage (MPV) will utilize MIPCC Propulsion Second stage is all-rocket/hybrid propulsion Very small payloads in the lbs. range Required mission turnaround time of 24 hours Phase-1 Winners: - Coleman Research Corp. - Northrop Grumman Corp. - Pioneer Rocketplane - Space Launch Corp. - Space Access LLC - Delta Velocity Phase-2 Winner: - Space Launch Corp. Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 17 Future Cargo Transportation Example: Falcon I by SpaceX Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 18

Future Infrastructure Example: Nautilus by Bigelow Aerospace Engineering

Page 19 Possible Paths to Tourism A Soyuz + ISS B New Sub-orbital Vehicle

Present 2-5 passengers 2-5 passengers Post X-Prize 10-40 passengers 10-40

10 Future Infrastructure Example: Nautilus by Bigelow Aerospace Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 19 Possible Paths to Tourism A Soyuz + ISS B New Sub-orbital Vehicle C Limited Limited 1 passenger 1 passenger Orbital Vehicle D Space Hotels Present 2-5 passengers 2-5 passengers Post X-Prize passengers passengers Space Shuttle-type RLV successor Non-U.S. Non-U.S. (Russian, (Russian, Chinese, Commercial) Chinese, Commercial) Low Earth Orbit Destinations Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 20

11 United States Vision for Space Exploration Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 21 U.S. President s Vision for Space Exploration Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 22

Characteristics of President s Vision for Space Exploration Space Shuttle to complete International Space Station

return Conduct the first extended human expedition to the lunar surface as early as 2015, but no later than the year

flights no later than 2014 Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved.

12 Characteristics of President s Vision for Space Exploration Space Shuttle to complete International Space Station (ISS) only Focus research activity on human and robotic technologies Lunar robotic spacecraft with possible sample return Conduct the first extended human expedition to the lunar surface as early as 2015, but no later than the year 2020 Develop new crew exploration vehicle to provide crew transportation for missions beyond low Earth orbit, test flights no later than 2014 Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 23 Outline of U.S. President s Vision for Space Exploration Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 24

13 Building Blocks of the Vision Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 25 Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 26

14 Crew Exploration System (Project Constellation) Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 27 Human and Robotic Technology Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 28

15 Observations Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 29 Government-Based Developments NASA s Vision for Space Exploration to be full-scale return to the Moon program with Mars follow-on Commercial potential (spin-offs and potential commercial service categories) of new Vision still to be determined - How many pieces of the architecture required to go back to the Moon will be acquired directly from commercial providers versus developed in the traditional manner? Space Shuttle is unlikely to fly again until 2005, and only to service space station - No U.S. program to actually replace the Shuttle has been initiated - Alternate Access to Space Station program no longer active - U.S.-derived manned space launch capability will rely on development of Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to meet goals of new Vision for Space Exploration - CEV may most likely be either a capsule or lifting body on an expendable rocket booster Over the past 5 years, numerous government RLV-programs have been cancelled - X-33, X-34, SLI (redirected), new rocket engine development efforts - Full-scale RLV estimated at $15-$20B to develop Airbreathing / hypersonic space access vehicles remain years off - RBCC, TBCC, DMRS systems still of interest and receiving some funding, mainly through military - 2nd successful Hyper-X (X-43A) scramjet flight test in late First operational scramjet system on missiles NASA Centennial Challenges may fund several small scale prizes starting in FY2005 ($10M budget in 2005) - Four types of challenges - Flagship: 1-2 / year at $10-40M each, major private space mission - Keystone: 3-5 / year at $250K-3M each, subsystem development - Alliance: 2-4 / year at $ K each, NASA provides prize purse, others administer prize - Quest: Up to $1M / year, encourage science/technology/engineering/math careers Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 30

16 United States Recent Relevant Government Legislation United States HR 5382 (The Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act) Effect - Concerns the commercial space flight industry - Gives United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) unlimited authority to regulate new rockets to ensure that they do not harm anyone on the ground and to ensure that the industry is learning from any failures - Gives FAA additional authority after 8 years by which time the industry should be less experimental - Allows FAA AST to regulate only specific matters that have caused actual problems for passenger/crew safety for the first 8 years Current Status - Approved by the House of Representatives in Waiting to be go into the United States Senate in extra session within the next few weeks - If not passed by Senate, bill would have to restart journey back in House next year - HR 5382 is the latest compromise version of HR 3752, which in turn started out life as HR 3245 Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 31 Commercial Developments Multiple start-up companies competing for small-satellite launch market (payloads from 100-2,000 lbs) and or suborbital tourism market in a post X-Prize environment - Initiatives from non-traditional aerospace funding sources - Incentives from various government programs (DARPA RASCAL, DARPA FALCON) - Organizations include: Virgin Galactic (Richard Branson of Virgin), SpaceX (Elon Musk from Paypal), Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com), SpaceDev, Xcor, Microcosm, Armadillo Aerospace (John Carmack of id Software), X-Prize Cup (X-Prize Foundation) Initial development of commercial inflatable habitats - Bigelow Aerospace (Robert Bigelow) On-orbit commercial satellite servicing - Orbital Recovery Corporation (Walt Anderson) Reduced gravity flights - Zero Gravity Corporation (Peter Diamandis) New $50 million America s Space Prize - A spacecraft capable of taking a crew of no fewer than five people to an altitude of 400 kilometers and complete two orbits of the Earth at that altitude - Have to repeat that accomplishment within 60 days - First flight must demonstrate only the ability to carry five crew members, the winner will have to take at least five people up on the second flight - Must be accomplished by 10 January No more than 20 percent of the spacecraft s hardware can be expendable - It must also demonstrate the ability to dock with Bigelow Aerospace s inflatable space habitat and be able to stay docked in orbit for up to six months Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 32

Status and Future of Space Commercialization Sustainable space exploration will only occur through commercialization - Higher flight rates, larger traffic will be required for such sustainability

was commercial LEO satellites is now hoped to be space tourism - Waves of different commercial space activities can be seen to occur - In the 1990s different launch vehicle companies (Beal Aerospace,

firms have to fail for innovation to occur?

17 Status and Future of Space Commercialization Sustainable space exploration will only occur through commercialization - Higher flight rates, larger traffic will be required for such sustainability Space tourism can be seen as the only possible large-scale market for launch services (could possibly include Space Solar Power as well) - The killer application for space access that in the 1990s was commercial LEO satellites is now hoped to be space tourism - Waves of different commercial space activities can be seen to occur - In the 1990s different launch vehicle companies (Beal Aerospace, Rotary Rocket) and market assumptions (vast market of LEO commercial satellites) Current commercial cargo demand not very elastic and not growing rapidly Is there a first mover advantage or how many firms have to fail for innovation to occur? - First-mover advantage: A sometimes insurmountable advantage gained by the first significant company to move into a new market - Multiple efforts by a diverse set of companies and organizations (as is currently the case) in various areas of space transportation and infrastructure Engineering Today, Enabling Tomorrow Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Page 33 No. 34 Dr.-Ing. Robert Alexander GOEHLICH Keio University Department of System Design Engineering Space System Engineering (Ohkami Laboratory) Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku Yokohama , JAPAN mail@robert-goehlich.de Mobile: +81-(0) Fax.: +81-(0) Internet:

Credits. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. United Space Alliance, LLC. John Frassanito and Associates Strategic Visualization

Credits. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. United Space Alliance, LLC. John Frassanito and Associates Strategic Visualization A New Age in Space The Vision for Space Exploration Credits National Aeronautics and Space Administration United Space Alliance, LLC John Frassanito and Associates Strategic Visualization Coalition for