2009 Space Exploration Program Assessment

Transcription

1 AIAA Space Exploration Program Committee 2009 Space Exploration Program Assessment Presentation to the AIAA Technical Activities Committee 08 January 2008 John C. Mankins Chair, Space Exploration Program Committee Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC Ashburn, VA USA

2 Introduction One role of the several Program Committees of the AIAA is to inform the membership / leadership of the AIAA concerning the status of relevant major program (government and other) The AIAA Space Exploration Program Committee (SE PC), formed in 2005/2006, periodically conducts high level assessments of the status of space exploration program planning, and supporting research and technology (R&T) programs as presented in the FY 2008 NASA President s Budget In 2006, a preliminary assessment was conducted of the changes in program scope and budgets over the period ranging from 2002 through 2007 (including the budget run-out) This assessment suggested the likely elimination of long-standing NASA R&T core competencies, significant changes in the science community (already noted in the Media), as well as significant tactical issues likely to arise in the coming budget years 2

3 Executive Summary (1) Since the 2006 SEPC assessment, the expectations at that time have been fulfilled, and more There have been sweeping changes in the Vision for Space Exploration (original plan in February 2004, versus revised plan in February 2006, and subsequent updates) These changes in the Vision and its implementation were implemented in a series of major adjustments in NASA space exploration programs, including dramatic reductions in virtually all aspects of Agency research and technology (R&T) These changes affect numerous AIAA members / committees The changes were made in order to enable the acceleration of the IOC for the CEV/CLV (now Constellation Systems) to But that acceleration that has not been realized The resulting Gap in U.S. human space flight has become increasingly problematic in Congress / Key Space States 3

4 Executive Summary (2) Space Research and Technology budgets at NASA were reduced drastically during 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 The National Research Council conducted a 2008 Review of NASA Technology Budgets and found multiple significant deficiencies / issues Unexpectedly, space became an issue in the 2008 Presidential Campaign In part, due to the battleground status of key NASA states: Virginia, Ohio and Florida A detailed white paper articulating a possible Space Policy for the new Obama Administration was posted to the Campaign website in August

5 Executive Summary (3) As of December-January 2009, the post-election situation for NASA has become highly problematic Reports in the Media of a lack of cooperation between NASA senior leadership and the President-elect s NASA Transition Team (including a public quarrel and derogatory remarks) The likelihood that there will be a change in NASA Leadership sooner rather than later (unprecedented in the past 25 years) Requests for information by the NASA Transition Team that have been interpreted by some as suggesting a significant change in Space Exploration program activities is possible 5

6 DETAILED ASSESSMENT 6

7 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Original Vision - February

8 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Revised Vision - February January AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Orlando, Reno, Nevada Florida 8

9 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Comparisons: February February

10 VSE /2009 Comparison of Strategic Planning Space Exploration Strategic Thrust(s) Integrated Human/Robotic exploration vision Metrics: Affordable & Sustainable Development of System building blocks Focused Human Lunar Program, other programs supporting Metrics: Performance, then Schedule, then Cost Human Space Flight Fly-out Space Shuttle thru 2010 Complete ISS Strong reliance on ISS to conduct human research for long duration space flight Moon by 2018 Fly-out Space Shuttle thru 2010 Complete ISS CHANGES: Moon by (2-year delay) ISS Continues, with Increased Utilization Robotic Space Flight Selected supporting missions (e.g., LRO) Robust Mars program - including Sample Return Strong Outer Planets exploration Search for other planets, etc. Complete selected existing missions Single supporting mission (e.g., LRO + Impactor) Minimal new for missions Research, Technology and Development Aggressive R&T to Inform systems decisions Use of ISS for Technology Flight Experiments and Demonstrations Lunar mission technology demos Mars mission technology demos New capabilities (e.g., optical comm ) LEO, Lunar Systems System development decisions based on preliminary analysis, existing systems and technologies Minimal technology advanced development -- focused on preselected systems 10

11 VSE /2008 Comparison of Budget Planning Space Exploration Strategic Thrust(s) Human Space Flight Robotic Space Flight Research and Technology Integrated Human/Robotic exploration vision Metrics: Affordable & Sustainable Development of System building blocks Fly-out Space Shuttle thru 2010 Complete ISS Strong funding for inspace research (microgravity, life sciences, etc.) Near-term modest funding for competitive fly-off for CEV Decision on CLV by 2009; ramp-up in funding to follow Shuttle stand-down Robust funding for solar system exploration Mars program Outer Planets Strong Outer Planets exploration Strategicallyintegrate Search for other planets Major investment in novel system capabilities and supporting R&T Growing funding for Tech Flight Demos Focused Human Lunar Program, other programs supporting Metrics: Performance, then Schedule, then Cost Fly-out Space Shuttle thru 2010 Complete ISS Near term ramp-up for single CEV and CLV development funding Minimal funding for new robotic missions Selected terminations of funding for inprogress missions Minimal funding in research and technology; CEV focused 11

12 NASA Space Exploration R&T Budgets 2002 thru 2007 (with Runout + 08 & 09 Actuals) 12

13 2008: National Research Council Report 13

14 : A Political Transformation In FY 2006, the Democratic Party became the majority party in both the U.S. House and the Senate--altering the balance of power on various key congressional committees And, despite bi-partisan assertions of support for the Vision for Space Exploration, funding has not achieved hoped-for levels since 2005 Also, there has been push back on different policy topics; such as language in the FY 2008 Omnibus Appropriations bill Provided further, That none of the funds under this heading shall be used for any research, development, or demonstration activities related exclusively to the human exploration of Mars. The Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration shall prepare a strategy for minimizing job losses when the National Aeronautics and Space Administration transitions from the Space Shuttle to a successor human-rated space transport vehicle 14

15 : A Political Transformation (2) In 2008 the political transformation continued with the Presidential Election NASA / space exploration became an issue in the campaign SEPC Forecast (January 08): o There is a good probability that the next Administration will be a Democratic or an Independent Republican Reality (January 09): Bottom Line: o President-Elect Obama Movement toward a more balanced investment, with less focus on human missions beyond low Earth orbit, but little enthusiasm for NASA budget growth 15

16 August 2008: Website Space Policy Statement Key Points (1) Space Policy Goal: A Comprehensive Vision for a Robust And Balanced Program Of Space Exploration And Scientific Discovery Statements Because America's leadership in space has provided the United States with a scientific and economic edge, the policy stated clearly that the United States should maintain its international leadership in space while at the same time inspiring a new generation of Americans to dream beyond the horizon. The policy stated clearly NASA should play a role in helping the U.S. to maintain its innovation edge and contribute to economic growth. The program will include both human and robotic space exploration, and NASA will again lead in confronting the terrestrial challenges, including global climate change, energy independence, and aeronautics research. 16

17 August 2008: Website Space Policy Statement Key Points (2) The policy stated clearly that the Administration would seek to make the necessary investments to ensure the U.S. reduces (as much as is technically feasible) the currently projected gap from the end of Space Shuttle operations and the beginning of operations of a replacement vehicle The policy called for U.S. Government Agencies (in addition to NASA), as well as industry and academia to develop innovative scientific and technological research projects on the ISS. The policy called for the use of the ISS for fundamental biological and physical research to understand the effects of long-term space travel on human health and to test emerging technologies to enable such travel. 17

18 August 2008: Website Space Policy Statement Key Points (3) The policy supported renewed human exploration beyond LEO and endorsed the goal of sending human missions to the Moon by 2020, as a precursor in an orderly progression to missions to more distant destinations, including Mars. The policy stated that the Administration would pursue establishment of a cooperative framework for the conduct of a long-term and sustainable international exploration initiative. And that while this framework is developed, the Administration will continue NASA's architecture studies and advanced planning to ensure the American space workforce remains engaged and that America can lead the world to long-term exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond, in a collaborative and cost-effective way. The policy supported a robust program of robotic space exploration that pursues the major crosscutting themes and the recommended new missions established by the decadal survey of the National Research Council. 18

19 August 2008: Website Space Policy Statement Key Points (4) The policy articulated a strong commitment to the development of new space technologies, including several specific policy / programmatic steps Basic Research o In order to enhance the role of NASA as a premier institution of innovation, a renewal of NASA's commitment to innovation-driving basic research that the private sector can use to develop new products for American consumers. Expanding Public/Private Partnerships o Because advanced space and aeronautics research can help catalyze economic growth, public/private space technology partnerships to spur innovation will be encouraged. Accelerated Commercialization o Increased use of cost sharing initiatives between government and industry to increase the state of the art in various technical areas, and for establishing multi-agency programs that focus on rapid maturation of advanced concepts and transfer to industry for commercialization. 19

20 August 2008: Website Space Policy Statement Key Points (5) Space Science and Exploration Research and Technology Human Space Exploration o The policy supported a robust research and technology development program that addresses the long-term needs for future human and robotic missions, including a funding goal of at least 10 percent of the total exploration systems budget for research and development. Robotic Space Exploration o The policy supported increased investment in research, data analysis, and technology development across the full suite of exploration missions including the Mars Sample Return mission and future missions to the Moon, asteroids, Lagrange points, the outer Solar System, and other destinations. 20

21 SUMMARY 21

22 Summary Assessment (1 of 4) The purposes, policies and content of programs related to the Vision for Space Exploration have changed dramatically during the past 5 years Away from roughly balanced investments in human and robotic exploration missions, and Away from significant investments in advanced research and technology and the development of significant new capabilities Investments have been drastically reduced in New science concepts and missions Advanced technologies of all types Longer-term human and other in-space research Consequences NASA s long-standing core competencies have been corroded in this funding environment (science, robotic missions, technology, etc.) Particular challenges exist for NASA current stated longer term goals associated with a lunar base and/or ambitious lunar surface operations Future industry/national science and technology base is being diminished 22

23 Summary Assessment (2 of 4) At the same time, the political situation has been transformed In the Congress In the Administration Bottom Line: The new Administration has strong interest in a balanced program (i.e., more aeronautics and more science), in technology as a reason to do space exploration, and insufficient support for more money for NASA Also, there is interest in extending Shuttle operations However, it is unlikely that the current plan to retire the Shuttle in 2010 can be extended by more than 1-2 years at most Therefore, there is a need for a new means for U.S. human access to space 23

24 Summary Assessment (3 of 4) Unlikely Hard to Realize Risk Given the following assumptions The Space Shuttle stops flying c The International Space Station assembly is completed before the Space Shuttle stops flying The CEV is developed to replace the Shuttle The following scenario(s) seem plausible in the coming 1-2 years Continuation of policy and programs as currently framed o In this case, additional reductions in science, research and technology seem almost inevitable (for example, see W. Gruehl analysis, c. 1987). Change in policy back toward the original Vision for Space Exploration o In this case, a rebalancing of program content toward the President s Budget levels seems likely and a delay of several years in accomplishing major milestones from 2004 VSE policy Change in policy back to before the Vision for Space Exploration o In this case (given Shuttle flights stop in ), human space flight is in substantial disarray for several years, and perhaps at risk There are no good solutions at this point only various bad ones 24

25 Summary Assessment (4 of 4) However, there are highly hopeful aspects of the August Obama Campaign Policy Statement Some thoughts for AIAA Technical Committees and members Need to continue to assess impacts of recent dramatic changes in National Space Program program scope on AIAA membership Need to carefully monitor ongoing changes in SE program scope, performance o For example, during the past two years significant schedule delays and cost overruns within current program scope HAVE damaged political support for space exploration AIAA needs to stand ready to respond to likely changes in current U.S. space exploration programs and/or policies; possibilities include: o Changes in NASA implementation planning for VSE o Changes in funding for Space R&T and Aeronautics R&T o Increased roles by other Agencies o Increased Emphasis on Government-Industry Partnerships 25

26 Back-Up Charts 26

27 Background Space Exploration Program Committee The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Space Exploration Program Committee brings together experts on a wide range of topics relevant to future human and robotic space exploration programs. This Program Committee serves as the AIAA focal point for emerging programs in support of space exploration and the Vision for Space Exploration in the aerospace industry, and keeps AIAA informed of progress and new developments. The Space Exploration PC integrates related AIAA Groups, and Technical Committees (TCs) to ensure that all of the appropriate program areas are represented. The Program Committee has a finite life, related to its particular programs, which is currently projected to be six (6) years (with an initial review of the Space Exploration PC by the AIAA New Initiatives Subcommittee (NIS) at the end of three (3) years. Space Exploration Program Committee activities are similar to those of related Technical Committees, and include all aspects of AIAA, including conferences, public policy, education, standards, and international activities. 27

28 Background Space Exploration Program Committee (2) The objectives and scope of the Space Exploration Program Committee includes: Promote a broad, in-depth understanding of o NASA programs to develop systems of systems for the future human and robotic exploration of space. o Relevant international programs. o Relevant other non-nasa U.S. programs (government and industry). Develop and implement working relationships among NASA program managers and Centers, and non-nasa aerospace managers, engineers and technologists. Provide better visibility and communications between NASA and AIAA members, and technical committees concerning mutually supportive activities and technologies. 28

29 SEPC Interactions with AIAA Technical & Standing Committees Technical Committees & Groups Aerospace Power Systems TC Adaptive Structures TC Atmospheric and Space Environments TC Communication Systems TC Electric Propulsion TC Guidance, Navigation & Control TC Hybrid Rockets TC Information and Command & Control TC Intelligent Systems TC Life Science & Systems TC Society and Aerospace Technology TC Space Colonization TC Space Resources TC (new) Space Transportation TC Liquid Propulsion TC Liquid Rockets TC Technical Committees (Cont.) Modeling & Simulation TC Multidisciplinary Design Optimization TC Nuclear and Future Flight Propulsion TC Solid Rockets TC Space Automation & Robotics TC Space Logistics TC Space Operations & Support TC Space Systems TC Others as appropriate Plus Other AIAA Committees Policy Committee Pre-College Outreach Program Committee Others? 29

30 Historical Perspective (1) Space R&T in the Apollo Era 30

31 NASA Space Exploration R&T Budgets President s Budgets: 2002 thru 2009 From Fiscal Year , US investments in NASA Space Exploration Research and Technology increased significantly While Staffing levels remained relatively steady; Resulting in a 3-fold increase in net R&T activities In FY , adjustments were made in NASA s operating plan, resulting in an initial significant reduction in Space Exploration R&T investments In FY (and the run out fiscal year budgets), still more reductions in Space Exploration advanced R&T were made In these reductions were largely invisible due to addition of lunar robotic program to the line item 31

32 2004: Goals of the Vision for Space Exploration 32

33 Likelihood of Space Systems Development Cost Overruns Reference: W. Gruehl Data (c. 1987) The possibility of cost overruns and the resulting opportunity costs is a significant point for concern in any major systems development effort Past studies have indicated that a critical discriminator is the percentage of total cost invested prior to design finalization and cost estimation A system development-rich program, with minimal specific investments to date has a high probability of increases in cost 33

34 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) February Original Sand Chart 34

35 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) February Revised Sand Chart 35

36 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) February Original Sand Chart 08 January AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Reno, Orlando, Nevada Florida 36

37 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) February Revised Sand Chart Specific Systems for Exploration Next 10 years A new capsule for access to space: the Crew Exploration Vehicle A new EELV class launcher for CEV: The Crew Launch Vehicle CLV) Lunar Reconn. Orbiter; possible lunar lander Lunar surface advanced development Next 20 years A heavy lift launch vehicle for human lunar transportation systems Human lunar in-space transportation Lunar surface access module Selected lunar surface systems Next years Research related to human Mars Missions Possible extension of lunar surface activities Beyond the next 40 years Human Mars missions; new science missions; etc. 37

38 NASA - Space/Aeronautics R&T Budgets President s Budget: 2002 thru 2007 (with Runout) 38

39 Historical Perspective (2) The Risk: Space R&T AFTER the Apollo Era 39

40 Space Exploration Program Committee Consensus Views (Jan. 08 Meeting) The Risk is quite real of a repeat of 1992 ambitious space exploration goals fall off the table AIAA members would be significantly affected by this outcome. Action is urgently needed by the SEPC and the AIAA to mitigate the risks foreseen in the coming year There is no value in debating details of the architecture or specific details of the implementation plan ( don t rearrange the deck charis However, there is a special need and opportunity to promote a turn-around in the radical reduction of space exploration R&T The SEPC (working across the several TC s) plans to Prepare a PC White Paper concerning Space Exploration research and technology Propose that AIAA endorse a Position Paper on this subject as well These will be forthcoming in the next 3-4 weeks 40