INFLECTION POINTS. Jamais Cascio Research Fellow, Institute for the Future February 4, 2010

Transcription

1 INFLECTION POINTS Jamais Cascio Research Fellow, Institute for the Future February 4, 2010

2

3 What s Our Vision of The Future?

4

5 Legacy Futures

6

7 Photo by Jason Tester

8 Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this?

9 Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this? Yep. Strategic Foresight.

10 Scenario Planning

11 Scenario Planning Tells stories about the future Forces divergent thinking Allows straightforward comparison of outcomes Creates memorable examples But Tends to over-simplify Becomes obsolete quickly Tends towards the cinematic

12 Foresight Mapping 10

13 Foresight Mapping Emphasizes connections Allows complex relationships Focuses on signals and early indicators Tends to remain useful over time But More difficult to understand at a glance Less likely to elicit surprises Doesn t demand internal consistency

14 Immersive Futures

15 Immersive Futures Trigger visceral reactions Emphasize experience Create plausibly surreal artifacts of the future Use provocation as a way of eliciting insight But Can be a challenge to do well Require time to live in the future experience Can provoke unexpectedly strong reactions

16 50 YEARS

17 What we often think of...

18 GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION climate disruption

19 PANDEMIC DISEASE

20 ECONOMIC DISLOCATION

21 Photo by Stuart Candy RESOURCE COLLAPSE resource collapse

22 TERROR the rise of the posthegemonic era

23 GROWING STATE POWER

24 WAR

25 AND EVEN...

26 AND EVEN...

27 But we have to also imagine...

28 NEW WAYS TO LIVE

29 CHEAP, DISTRIBUTED ENERGY

30 LEAPFROG DEVELOPMENT

31 NEW ECONOMIC MODELS

32 EMERGENT POLITICAL NETWORKS

33 NEW TOOLS FOR WATCHING THE WORLD

34 COLLABORATIVE CREATIVITY

35 NEUROSCIENCE BREAKTHROUGHS

36 HEALTHY LIFE EXTENSION

37 ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPARENCY filters and awareness AR

38 TRANSFORMATIVE MATERIALS

39 REVOLUTIONS IN MANUFACTURING

40 REVOLUTIONS IN COMPUTING

41

42 CRITICAL TENSIONS FOR THE NEXT HALF-CENTURY

43 Tension #1: new innovations undermine core institutions Bottom-up drivers enable greater collaboration and participation, but also greater instability. This is a future of Open Source Design and Global Guerillas. This is a world where power comes from the Commons.

44 Tension #2: new technologies co-evolve with new rules Technology-driven changes enable more sharing of information and ideas, but abandon the remnants of old intellectual property and privacy rules. This is a future of the Smart Cities and Augmented Reality. This is a world where power comes from Connections.

45 Tension #3: big-picture challenges force radical choices Catastrophe and Opportunity combine to drive the creation of new economic, political, and social models. This is a future of Massive Disruptions and Unanticipated Consequences. This is a world where power comes from Creativity.

46 THE COMMONS CONNECTIONS CREATIVITY

47 Using Foresight Thinking

48 AS A WIND TUNNEL

49 AS A WIND TUNNEL Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment

50 AS AN IMMUNE SYSTEM

51 AS AN IMMUNE SYSTEM Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices

52 AS A CHALLENGE

53 AS A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term

54 Jamais Cascio