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1 Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the Usage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner is a public company, and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research. Gartner's Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms, funds or their managers. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research, see "Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity."

2 Top 10 Strategic Predictions: Gartner Predicts a Disruptive and Constructive Future for IT Daryl Plummer

3 IT Disruptions Now Go Extensively Beyond the IT Function IT We are all being "splashed" by IT

4 And the Disruptions Just Keep Coming! The Digital Industrial Revolution Smart Machines Digital Business Internet of Things

5 The Digital Industrial Revolution "The Industrial Revolution was another of those extraordinary jumps forward in the story of civilization " Stephen Gardiner "The Digital Industrial Revolution is shaping up as one of those extraordinary jumps forward in the evolution of human freedom and chaos." Daryl Plummer You can make almost anything but can you assemble it?

6 3D Printing Has Wide-Ranging Effects on All From Chinese Economic might to Altered Human Life Economies of Scale Enhanced One by One

7 Could a 3D Printer Be Prevented From Saving You? By 2016, 3D printing of tissues and organs (bioprinting) will cause a global debate about regulating the technology or banning it for both human and nonhuman use Why? Advancing fast Lack of understanding (remember Dolly the sheep?) Stem cells lead to enhanced organs Money leads to corruption Flags Government intervention by the end of 2015 By 2015, global headlines of a success or failure What to do? Enterprises must develop policies for acceptable research parameters in bioprinting, as well as investigate the legal aspects of protecting the resulting intellectual property. Authors: Daryl Plummer and Pete Basiliere

8 3D Printing Defined Stratasys/Solidscape Example 3D Systems Project Example Cross-section of bioprinted human liver tissue, 2013 Cool Vendor Organovo

9 Counterfeit Goods Are Inevitable By 2018, 3D printing will result in the loss of at least $100 billion per year in intellectual property globally Why? The U.S. alone has more than $300 billion in IP stolen annually Wide range of copies possible Low cost easy access Flags By 2015, Asian use of copyrighted Western goods escalates Global automotive aftermarket report $15 billion of 3D theft in 2016 What to do? CEOs and CIOs at manufacturers and retailers must team up to identify more effective means for consumers to validate that products are genuine. Authors: Marc Halpern, Pete Basiliere

10 "Accessorizing" Your Business With Digital Assets and Capabilities. Digital Business refers to business created using digital assets and/or capabilities, involving digital products, services and/or customer experiences, and/or conducted through digital channels and communities.

11 Digital Use of "Crowds" as an "Accessory" 2017, over half of consumer goods manufacturers will achieve 75% of their consumer innovation and R&D capabilities from crowdsourced solutions Why? Consumer goods companies in touch with customers Better crowdsourcing technology Affinity for culture and style of the consumer What to do? Flags Increase in crowdsourcing applications in online consumer goods platforms in 2014 Crowdsourced revenue boost CIOs must focus on building the right culture to support bottomup contribution. Without it and without employees who care these initiatives are likely to fail. Authors: Don Scheibenreif and Michael Shanler

12 And Then Business Gets Personal By 2017, 80% of consumers will collect, track and barter their personal data for cost savings, convenience and customization. Why? Online portals/retailers collect vast troves of data on users Communication service providers have revealing data Financial services keep consumer transactions Flags The number of Kickstarterbased auctions of personal data will increase by triple digit percentages by end of What to do? Marketers and marketing analysts need to evaluate predictive and prescription models based on behavior to determine long-term data collection and reward strategies. Authors: Andrew Frank and Mike McGuire

13 Performance A "Not So Quiet" IT Crisis Is Brewing THE QUIET CRISIS Time

14 Digital Security Gets More Difficult to Guarantee By 2020, enterprises and governments will fail to protect 75% of sensitive data, and will declassify and grant broad/public access to it Why? Growth of data exceeds protective mechanisms Best protection is misguided protection schemes Best protection is "nothing to protect" Flags More "Snowden" or "Wiki-leaks" moments through 2014 indicating corporations and governments acceptance that they cannot protect all sensitive information. What to do? Enterprises and governments should accept that sharing many, seemingly sensitive, data is neither dangerous nor unprofitable, politically and economically. Authors: Joseph Feiman

15 And, Digitalization's Effect on Labor Grows By 2020, the labor reduction effect of digitalization will cause social unrest and a quest for new economic models in mature economies Why? Digitalization <> more jobs Kodak's 130,000 people versus Instagram's 13 Lower labor Content Lower pay per hour Flags Another "Occupy Wall Street" type of movement by the end of 2014 Bartering-based systems and voluntary roles rise by 2015 in areas such as patient care. What to do? CEOs and boards must avoid using old economic models in the new digital reality. Authors: Gregor Petri

16 Judgment Day: Why We Should Let the Machines Automate Decision Making Question: How much further should we go with technology to improve and automate executive decision making? Answer: A lot further, creating substantive competitive advantage.

17 Machines Already Decide Our Safety By 2024, at least 10% of activities potentially injurious to human life will require mandatory use of a non-overidable "smart system" Why? Popular acceptance? Mandated deployment? Legal and punitive ramifications Flags Automated assist as standard equipment increases Insurance premiums decrease through 2015 Legislative discussions What to do? CIOs and IT leaders should help identify where and how the deployment of automated systems might improve product safety and/or enhance competitive attractiveness Authors: Ken McGee, Steve Prentice

18 They Will Soon Decide What Happens to Our Jobs By 2020, most knowledge workers' career paths will be disrupted by smart machines in positive and negative ways Why? Smart advisors entering the market now A large and growing market for Watson-derived smart advisors. Google and Apple actively developing personal assistants Flags Watson at least 1.5% of IBM revenues by end of 2015, 10% by end 2018 Virtual personal assistant usage in business will grow faster than ipads What to do? IT professionals need to recognize that smart machines can create substantial competitive advantages, as well as entirely new businesses. Author: Tom Austin

19 And, Learning Machines Will Need Teachers By 2017, 10% of computers will be learning, rather than processing Why? Deep neural networks are evolving 100 trillion synapses simulated in 2012 TrueNorth Neurosynaptic chips in mass production Flags In 2014 the number of speech recognition apps doubles In 2015, car manufacturers adopt By 2015, developers using IBM s library of smarter macros will quadruple What to do? Enterprises must prepare for a new method of programming, nay, training, computers and work on developing in-house workshop for "Programming by Example". Author: Adib Carl Ghubril

20 The Internet of Things: 15 Billion or One Trillion Things by 2020? Not primarily controlled by humans Unique IP address Permanent connection to Internet Examples: Smart meter Act as gateways or aggregators Unique IP address Permanent connection to Internet Examples: Smart hub No direct connection to Internet No unique IP address Access through gateway Examples: Connected lights (mesh network)

21 Sales Will Depend on How Well You Monitor By 2020, consumer data collected from wearable devices will drive 5% of sales from the Global 1000 Why? Hands-free requirements Better technology Better design More use cases Flags Smartphone consumer data sharing doubles by 2015 By 2015, required registration of customer profiles with wearables What to do? Design wearables for new use cases, not as replacements for existing technology. Authors: Richard Fouts, Julie Hopkins

22 Summary/Recommendations Develop policies for acceptable research parameters in bioprinting. Develop ways to validate that products are genuine. Focus on building the right culture to support bottom-up (crowd) contributions. Evaluate predictive and prescription models based on behavior. Accept that sharing data is often neither dangerous nor unprofitable. Avoid using old economic models in the new digital reality. Help improve automated assist product safety and/or enhance competitive attractiveness. Recognize that smart machines can create substantial competitive advantages. Enterprise must prepare for "programming by example." Design wearables for new use cases.

23 Recommended Gartner Research Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2013 and Beyond: Balancing Economics, Risk, Opportunity and Innovation Daryl C. Plummer and others (G ) Digitalizing the Business Mark P. McDonald and Andy Rowsell-Jones (G ) Maverick* Research: Judgment Day, or Why We Should Let Machines Automate Decision Making Nigel Rayner (G ) Hype Cycle for Human-Computer Interaction, 2013 Adib Carl Ghubril and Steve Prentice (G ) Technology Overview: Quantified Self Mike Gotta (G ) The Disruptive Era of Smart Machines Is Upon Us (G ) Hype Cycle for Data and Collaboration Security, 2013 Jay Heiser (G ) Hype Cycle for the Internet of Things, 2013 Hung Lehong (G ) Overcome the Four Inhibitors of Data-Driven Marketing Andrew Frank (G ) Cool Vendors in 3D Printing, 2013 Pete Basiliere, et al (G ) Emerging Technology Analysis: 3D Printing Pete Basiliere (G ) For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone.