2018 ASSESS Update. Analysis, Simulation and Systems Engineering Software Strategies

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1 2018 ASSESS Update Analysis, Simulation and Systems Engineering Software Strategies

2 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative was formed to bring together key players to guide and influence strategies for software tools for model-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering.

3 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Vision To significantly expand the use and benefit of software tools for model-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering in the engineering applications domain.

4 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS activities started with a Summit in 2015 ASSESS Initiative LLC was formed as a legal entity in mid 2016 The ASSESS Initiative Membership Program went live in early 2018

5 The ASSESS Initiative Key drivers behind the ASSESS Initiative 1. Growing demand on How to be more competitive 2. Exponentially growing complexity of products & processes 3. Available computing power is rapidly removing the computing bottlenecks 4. New world of 3D printed objects and light weighting 5. Entirely new applications are creating a rapidly growing demand for simulation to enable breakthroughs 6. Simulation is used almost exclusively by a limited number of expert analysts 7. Simulation efforts have three key but disjointed vectors Commercial / Government / Research

6 The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS interacts and collaborates with multiple activities and organizations including: Cambashi, COFES Institute, intrinsim, NAFEMS, INCOSE, Revolution in Simulation, and a growing list of others.

7 The ASSESS Initiative Membership Program

8 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Program Goal To enable funding of ASSESS Initiative deliverables & activities beyond the Annual Congress Deliverables (Research Papers, ) Workshops Communication activities Other activities that help progress the ASSESS Vision

9 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Benefits Access to all ASSESS initiative deliverable documents at no charge, including: Research Papers as available (available to non-members for a fee) Survey research Others as appropriate Access to ASSESS Theme status and update reports Access to previous ASSESS Congress presentations Ability to participate in ASSESS related discussions & posts Discount on the Annual Congress Registration fee

10 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Status 71 Membership signups 10 Sponsors

11 Understanding the Simulation Revolution

12 Business Drivers for Engineering Simulation The Changing Role of Simulation is really about becoming a major key to strategic goals for improving competitiveness Increase Innovation Increase Quality Reduce Risk Reduce Time Reduce Cost Generative Design

13 Business Drivers for Engineering Simulation Growth of the Engineering Simulation market is tempered due to lack of expertise available Engineering Simulation is still done primarily by Expertise Available Expertise Required specialized Analysts MCAE Market Trends evolution

14 Business Drivers for Engineering Simulation Business Drivers are going to force a revolution to overcome the expertise based limitation Generative Design Engineering Simulation will be forced to find a way

15 Business Drivers for Engineering Simulation The demand is not going away A Simulation Revolution will occur: Model-Based Fit for purpose Integrated Smart Transparent / Invisible Generative. Expertise Available MCAE Market Trends Expertise Required revolution

16 Bob Tickel s ASSESS 2017 Congress Keynote illustrates estimated usage of Engineering Simulation at Cummins similar to ASSESS demand curve Democratization - New Tools, Methods and Skills (MDO, MBSE, etc.) Automation, Knowledge Management & Reduced Rework 16

17 Market data from the Cambashi CAE Observatory

18 Market Data from 2017 CAE Observatory 2D & 3D simulation market continues to grow and is expected to exceed $ 7 Bn annually by 2020 But growth rate is slowing to ~ 8.5% Data courtesy of Cambashi CAE Observatory

19 Market Data from 2018 CAE Observatory 2D & 3D simulation market continues to grow and is expected to approach $ 7 Bn annually by 2022 Growth rate is up by ~ 1% for but still < 10% Data courtesy of Cambashi CAE Observatory

20 ASSESS Advisory Committee

21 ASSESS Activities ASSESS Advisory Committee 58 Industry Thought leaders 10 Working Groups focused on defining the future directions, activities and deliverables of the ASSESS Initiative 6 Working Groups aligned with ASSESS Initiative Themes

22 ASSESS Themes

23 ASSESS Themes The ASSESS initiative has been organized around a key set of themes associated with expanding the usage and benefit of Engineering Simulation. Alignment of Government / Research/ Commercial Activities Engineering Simulation Business Challenges Engineering Simulation Credibility Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) Generative Design Integration of Systems and Detailed Sub-System Simulations We are looking at adding a new ASSESS theme in 2018 Engineering Simulation and Digital Twins

24 ASSESS Align Theme Update

25 ASSESS Align Theme Update MISALIGNMENT Driven by different Incentives: Government is Mission focused Private Sector need to Make A Living Academic need to Publish & R&D Portfolio

26 ASSESS Align Theme Update GOVERNMENT-COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY MISALIGNMENT Time misalignment between commercial and government Concept to contract > 1 year with government Mission requirements change faster than contracting Accounting Practice Differences Audit Requirements Government Programs often Start from Scratch IP Expectations differ

27 ASSESS Align Theme Update Align Theme Next Step ASSESS Positioning Paper Target early-mid 2018 Engineering Simulation alignment (or lack thereof) across Government / Research / Commercial Engineering Simulation

28 ASSESS Business Theme Update

29 ASSESS Business Theme Update Primary benefits achieved by using simulation 75.56% 68.89% 64.44% 62.22% 60.00% 53.33% 44.44% 42.22% 37.78% 31.11% Reduce risk of failure Improve performance Improve quality Faster development of new products Reduce prototyping costs Reduce product failure early in design phase Lower costs by changing design or materials Increase innovation Increase competitiveness Compliance with regulations and laws

30 ASSESS Business Theme Update Is the need for (physical) prototyping increasing or decreasing at your company? Stable products with few design changes 8% Cost of prototyping 17% Increasing use of additional virtual prototyping/simulation 75%

31 ASSESS Business Theme Update Business Theme Next Step ASSESS Research Paper-Targeted Late 2018 to Early 2019 Understanding and explaining the Engineering Simulation value proposition All other Business Challenge issues are a function of clear understanding of achievable and realistic Engineering Simulation value propositions Varies by customers (Large company / SMB / Industry Consortium)

32 ASSESS Credibility Theme Update

33 ASSESS Credibility Theme Update Confidence Level of Simulation Results vs. Simulation Risks Simulation Credibility: Based on Judgment, Experience & Evidence-Based VVUQ Simulation Risk: Inaccurate Predictions Product Failure or Reduced Performance Financial Liability Customer Loss Understanding the appropriateness of every Engineering Simulation Model is key

34 ASSESS Credibility Theme Update Engineering Simulation Governance Policies & Procedures Standard Tools & Processes Process & Data Management Policies & Standards Best Practices Quality Assurance Metrics & Expected Model Fidelities Uncertainty Quantification & Risk Management Guidelines Simulation Verification & Validation Deployment & Maintenance of Software Tools & Systems Coupling of Physical Test & Operational System Data with Simulation Technical Skills, Competencies & Cultural Topics; Training & Mentoring

35 ASSESS Credibility Theme Update Working Group Next Steps ASSESS Research Paper targeted for mid 2019 Guidelines for Implementing an Engineering Simulation Credibility Framework Based on NASA Standard on Modeling and Simulation NASA-STD-7009A Adapted for generalized use of Engineering Simulation

36 ASSESS DoES Theme Update

37 ASSESS DoES Theme Update Definition of Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) A significant expansion of the use of Engineering Simulation by all users in a reliable way, for whom access to the power of Engineering Simulation would be beneficial.

38 ASSESS DoES Theme Update where we are today

39 ASSESS DoES Theme Update Barriers to democratization for Small-Medium sized Enterprises Alternative Business Models to democratize Human barriers to democratization Academia and democratization Miscellaneous democratization factors

40 ASSESS DoES Theme Group Update Working Group Next Step ASSESS Research Paper - Targeted for late 2018 Understanding the different forms of Implementation for Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) and their related benefits, activities, requirements and issues Different levels (scope) of Democratization Product-Project / PD Process / Enterprise / Industry Different types of organizations Large company / SMB / Industry Consortium Consumer Centric or Vendor Centric

41 ASSESS Generative Theme Update

42 ASSESS Generative Theme Update Definition of Generative Design Generative Design is the use of algorithmic methods to quickly and automatically, or iteratively, transform requirements, constraints, uncertainties, and design space to create/drive viable designs or outcomes.

43 ASSESS Generative Theme Update Generative Design Vision Generative Design is a fundamentally disruptive paradigm inversion. It proposes that designs (whose elegance and complexity humans cannot imagine) can be computer generated by proper specification of rules and requirements. This overturns millennia of scientific experience, that designs must first be created (if not built) so they can be evaluated against their performance requirements.

44 ASSESS Generative Theme Update Issues Technical challenges must continue to be solved, but at a faster pace Commercialization challenges must be identified and solved Users must be able to understand the power of the new technology

45 ASSESS Integration Theme Update

46 ASSESS Integration Theme Update Needs: Definition and examples of Sub-Systems and Systems to be model Case Studies of System Level Simulation What are the bottle neck in the current state? ROI for development of simulation and modeling tools Multi Physic Simulation System Modeling and Simulation State of existing standards and what is needed more Collaboration with NIST work on Industry Anthology Foundry and standards definition of input output of sub systems Formalization of different domain methodologies Common Multiphysics Simulation tool set

47 ASSESS Integration Theme Update Why it is so hard: History - CAE tools developed discipline based Existing Assets Mental Models different discipline create different level of input output and different level of mathematical representations Data sets not consistent coupling introduce error state Sub models are build by different suppliers in different mathematical models and fidelity

48 ASSESS Integration Theme Update Working Group Next Step ASSESS Research Paper Understanding why integration of Systems and detailed Sub- System/Component simulations is not easy and how to move forward Starting with classification of Engineering Simulation Models

49 ASSESS Congresses

50 ASSESS Congresses ASSESS Summit (January 2015, Sante Fe, NM) 40 Industry leading Ambassadors 1 Keynote presentation (Richard Riff retired from Ford) 5 Working Groups 8 key issues were highlighted ASSESS 2016 Congress (January 2016, Potomac, MD) 85 Industry leading participants 4 Keynote presentations 26 Technology Briefings 7 Working Groups each with a particular ASSESS related theme

51 ASSESS Congresses ASSESS 2017 Congress (November , Potomac, MD) Targeting up to 150 industry leading participants 2 Keynote presentations 8-10 Technology Briefings 16 Working Sessions focused on a particular ASSESS related themes with 2 session for each theme

52 ASSESS Congresses ASSESS 2018 Congress (October , Chateau Elan, Braselton, GA) Theme: Launching the Simulation Revolution Targeting 115 industry leading participants 2 Keynote presentations Mark Meili of Procter & Gamble Dimitri Mavris of ASDL/GA Tech 11 Notes From the Front Presentations Inspired by Mauetic Paratexis at COFES Working Sessions focused specific ASSESS related Theme questions, with 2 questions/sessions for each theme

53 Viva la Simulation Revolution

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