th 1 1 t h t h M a y, L iv e rp o o l

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1 E U R A M th 1 1 t h t h M a y, L iv e rp o o l A C C A re n a, M e rse y R ive r W a te rfro n t, L ive rp o o l, U K Track RENEWING SCENARIO PLANNING AND FORESIGHT PROCESSES Track chairs Ian Miles, University of Manchester, Manchester Business School ian.miles@mbs.ac.uk Fabrice Roubelat, University of Poitiers, Graduate School of Business froubelat@iae.univ-poitiers.fr The track offers a location for presentation and discussion of papers which provide innovative thinking in the field of scenario planning and foresight processes. Contributions will cover areas such as methodological advances in foresight and scenario planning, in-depth analysis of foresight processes and thinking, prospective models of strategic change.

2 PROGRAMME Session 1 The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight: Insights From an Empirical Study Among Large European Companies Jan Oliver Schwartz, Berlin University of the Arts, jan.schwarz@gmx.de René Rohrbeck, Berlin University of Technology, Rene.Rohrbeck@telekom.de Causal Texture Theories of Turbulence & The Growth and Role of Scenario Practices Rafael Ramirez, HEC Paris and University of Oxford, rafael.ramirez@sbs.ox.ac.uk John Selsky, University of South Florida, jselsky@poly.usf.edu Kees van der Heijden, University of Oxford, keesvdh@aol.com Open Foresight: A Scenario Approach to Support SME in Strategic Planning Dana Mietzner, University of Postdam, Dana.Mietzner@uni-potsdam.de Guido Reger, University of Postdam, Guido.Reger@uni-potsdam.de Session 2 Searching for Country-Level Development Alternatives Erik Terk, Estonian Institute for Futures Studies, erik@eti.ee Networks Have Futures too. Action Based Lessons from Polar Historical Cases Anne Marchais-Roubelat, Cnam-Paris, anne.roubelat@cnam.fr Fabrice Roubelat, University of Poitiers, froubelat@iae.univ-poitiers.fr The Future of Hungarian Pension System with Scenario Analysis and Weak Signal Research Helga Veigl, Corvinus University of Budapest, veiglhelga@gmail.com Session 3 Forecasting the Rise and Decline of Societies in Ibn Khaldun's Work, from Subjective to Objective Indicators Kais Hammami, Cnam-Lipsor, kais.hammami@cnam.fr The Evolution of Sport Organizations Strategic Management over Time Claude Legrand, University of Poitiers, claude.legrand@univ-poitiers.fr Session 4 FCM-Based Scenarios: a Study of PV Panels Antonie Jetter, Portland State University, jettera@cecs.pdx.edu Kelly Cowan, Portland State University, kcowan@pdx.edu An Industrial Implementation of the Delphi Method: Possible Futures of Materials Surface Hardening Technologies Jean-Marc Belot, CETIM, jean-marc.belot@cetim.fr 2

3 ABSTRACTS Session 1 THE VALUE CONTRIBUTION OF STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: INSIGHTS FROM AN EMPIRICAL STUDY AMONG LARGE EUROPEAN COMPANIES Jan Oliver Schwartz, Berlin University of the Arts, jan.schwarz@gmx.de René Rohrbeck, Berlin University of Technology, Rene.Rohrbeck@telekom.de While the necessity for Strategic Foresight appears to be obvious in the literature and in practice, corporations, in particular those considering to invest into Strategic Foresight, are faced with the question: what is the value contribution of Strategic Foresight? Two approaches are chosen in this paper to answer this question: First, a review of literature, second, a survey among 51 multinational companies, with Strategic Foresight functions, empirical evidence was collected what these companies view as being the value contribution of Strategic Foresight. Our discussion of these two approaches suggests that, while the literature emphasizes on organizational learning and strategic conversation, the detection of weak signals and the dealing with weak signals, along with gaining insights on the environment, are emphasized by the companies in the survey. CAUSAL TEXTURE THEORIES OF TURBULENCE & THE GROWTH AND ROLE OF SCENARIO PRACTICES Rafael Ramirez, HEC Paris and University of Oxford, rafael.ramirez@sbs.ox.ac.uk John Selsky, University of South Florida, jselsky@poly.usf.edu Kees van der Heijden, University of Oxford, keesvdh@aol.com We relate the causal textures theory of organizational environments in particular the turbulent texture- to scenario practices. This affords a contingency perspective of when it is advisable to use scenarios; it offers a first explanation as to why scenario use rose dramatically after 9/11, and comprises the first scholarly understanding of how scenarios help to address turbulent conditions. The paper is derived form a collective effort we designed, hosted, ran and documented in 2005, which is now available in the public domain, which seeks to relate rigorous academic thinking to the reflective practices of scenario workers. OPEN FORESIGHT: A SCENARIO APPROACH TO SUPPORT SME IN STRATEGIC PLANNING Dana Mietzner, University of Postdam, Dana.Mietzner@uni-potsdam.de Guido Reger, University of Postdam, Guido.Reger@uni-potsdam.de The study deals with a scenario based open foresight approach which is implemented for High-Tech SME. Open Foresight can be described as the wider opening of the strategic foresight process. Future knowledge is generated in this approach outside the company in networks together with other market actors of the same or related branches, research institutes, networks and/or policy actors. In order to learn more about the practice of strategic foresight in SME, firstly case studies in 30 High-Tech SME are conducted. Secondly, the study shows how a scenario based 3

4 open foresight approach can be implemented in SME as a concept to develop knowledge about the future. This part of the study is based on action research in order to develop a deep understanding about the implementation of scenario analysis for SME, its strengths and limitations. The discussion of supporting factors and suggestions for implementation allows the development of an understanding about the process design and implementation of scenario projects in a certain context. As supporting factors for scenario analysis could be identified (1) the design of the analysis, (2) commitment and acceptance, (3) systematic review of the actual situation and (4) scenario communication. The results of this study are a contribution to reduce the implementation gap of scenario analysis in SME. Session 2 SEARCHING FOR COUNTRY-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES Erik Terk, Estonian Institute for Futures Studies, erik@eti.ee This paper discusses the experience of scenario building and the organisation of a social and political discussion based on the scenarios in Estonia. This process, which lasted several years, is looked back at from a perspective of ten years. The paper attempts to determine, what worked in the scenarios and what did not, to specify the lessons learned from the use of the method and organising discussion process on alternatives, which could be of interest to other countries. The article ends with some positions on the institutional organisation of development planning in general. NETWORKS HAVE FUTURES TOO. ACTION BASED LESSONS FROM POLAR HISTORICAL CASES Anne Marchais-Roubelat, Cnam-Paris, anne.roubelat@cnam.fr Fabrice Roubelat, University of Poitiers, froubelat@iae.univ-poitiers.fr As they seem more flexible than classic organisational structures, networks look so adapted to manage risky futures that they became a major field of research. However, this ability to cope with various contexts does not mean that networks remain unchanged. To explore the transformations of networks, we propose to formalize their dynamics through an action-based model combining three rules. First, a strategic rule discusses the establishment and the disuse of the aim shared by all network members. Second, an organising rule analyses the function and dysfunction of membership practices. Third, a contextual rule explores how a network creates new connections in its environment and how disconnections occur. Two historical polar cases help to discuss the way these rules appear and change : the rise and the changes which occured in the medieval Roman Catholic Order of Cîteaux on the one hand and power and automation ABB company on the other hand. The action-based model is discussed to provide a conceptual framework to anticipate how organisations move and how shifts and disruptions occur, as to avoid anachronims in scenario planning and foresight. 4

5 THE FUTURE OF HUNGARIAN PENSION SYSTEM WITH SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND WEAK SIGNAL RESEARCH Helga Veigl, Corvinus University of Budapest, The aim of the paper is to analyse the Hungarian pension system with scientific tools creating alternatives for decision makers. The results of the environmental scanning and weak signal research are channelled in a model, distinguishing the endogenous and exogenous factors. The interconnections of the components of the model are analysed with System Dynamics, and its results are used in scenario analysis. The study point out that there is no hopeless pension system, only one-minded decision makers and ignoring participants. Session 3 FORECASTING THE RISE AND DECLINE OF SOCIETIES IN IBN KHALDUN'S WORK, FROM SUBJECTIVE TO OBJECTIVE INDICATORS Kais Hammami, Cnam-Lipsor, kais.hammami@cnam.fr Ibn Khaldun ( ) was an intellectual who dominated his era, and is among the most important and perhaps the most recent of a long line of Arab thinkers concerned with the future in a macro-historical sense. Ibn Khaldun was primarily a historian and philosopher of history. His monumental work was the Muqaddimah which describe the natural laws that determine the growth and decline of nations. He hastens to clarify that seen from the inside, history has another meaning. History allows for a reflection on the causes and origins of the facts, their meaning in the highest sense of the term in its orientation towards the future. An inventory of events or how and why events occur is not enough. Historians must reflect upon the patterns which lead to a future. This is not prediction but rather careful consideration. Regarded today as the father of sociology, Ibn Khaldun was aware of the importance of his work. Khaldun tried to investigate the historical causes of actions and drivers for the future. THE EVOLUTION OF SPORT ORGANIZATIONS STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OVER TIME Claude Legrand University of Poitiers, claude.legrand@univ-poitiers.fr In order to anticipate shifts and evolutions in their environments that occur in sporting competition, sport organizations could derive maximum benefit from integrating time in their strategic management approach. This paper examines a process of change that has been occurring in sporting competition. Using the theoretical approaches found in work on leadership, stakeholder theory and contextualism, the paper shows how these approaches explain different aspects of the change process. It also shows how a more complete understanding of change may be gained by using dynamic perspective. Using basketball club as an illustration, this study identified several key elements to uncover the types of evolutions that could be considered by organizations engaged in sporting competitions. 5

6 Session 4 FCM-BASED SCENARIOS: A STUDY OF PV PANELS Antonie Jetter, Portland State University, jettera@cecs.pdx.edu Kelly Cowan, Portland State University, kcowan@pdx.edu Good scenarios are surprising because they do not simply extrapolate the status quo, but challenge paradigms. Scenarios should therefore be created by diverse groups with multiple perspectives and information sources and be based not only on aspects that are well understood, but also on weak and possibly conflicting early information. This does, however, increase complexity and the need for analytical tools that help scenario planners to make sense of the many information inputs. In this paper, we are proposing a novel method for scenario building, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). It integrates the qualitative and partial knowledge of many and helps scenario planners to overcome cognitive and information-processing limitations through formal, quantitative analysis. A simple scenario on solar photovoltaic panels is used to illustrate the approach. AN INDUSTRIAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DELPHI METHOD : POSSIBLE FUTURES OF MATERIALS SURFACE HARDENING TECHNOLOGIES Jean-Marc Belot, CETIM, jean-marc.belot@cetim.fr The Coatings and Surface Treatments professionals have requested to take some action regarding the future prospect of hard chromium and other deposits. They need having a prospective vision of the sector and its technical and economic changes during the next decade so as to be able to anticipate them. A prospective survey has been realized, consisting in a two-turns Delphi inquiry, ending with a voting meeting, and 4 scenarios (1 What is technically and economically feasible; 2 The lowest cost; 3 University and industry cooperate; 4 Environmental management and energy savings). 75 experts has taken part to this study. The future is open to suppositions, from the worst to the most optimistic. One often hears contradictory information. During the plenary meeting, someone who knows discloses that the ban on chromium is unavoidable. On the next day, another expert who knows, too, explains that chromium still has a day as it is harmless owing to the high rate and greater hardness that have been obtained. In reality, the future is not yet written. It is a matter of will. However, when one is not sure of one s grounds, it would be better to check the information received. The sector is uneasy as it has as many parts that it has techniques (chromium, PVD, thermochemical, duplex, spray coating, laser) and as no expert claims for a general view. This case study shows that it is possible to use advanced forecasting methods in industry. 6