Using Foresight and Scenarios for Anticipation of Skill Needs

Transcription

1 Using Foresight and Scenarios for Anticipation of Skill Needs Martin Bakule National Training Fund National Observatory for Employment and Training

2 Methods in Skills Needs Anticipation: A Guide on Foresights, Scenario Analyses and Quantitative Forecasting Part A: Foresight

3 FORESIGHT GUIDE Why such guide? To provide information on methodologies and different implementation aspects of mid to long term foresight approaches for skill needs Information based on good practice from other countries Support awareness and learning process from the experience of many other countries across the world Help to develop country s own specific skills anticipation system

4 FORESIGHT GUIDE Case selection Foresight processes on skills are in place in the country; Available information gives a picture comprehensive enough; The processes are able to create foresight products; The products are used by their potential users. Brazil, Germany, Finland, Japan, Korea, Russia, Australia, United Kingdom, United States.

5 FORESIGHT GUIDE For whom? Countries which are starting to develop systems of skills needs anticipation Sponsors of skills anticipation activities that can initiate or promote the processes and foster implementation of the necessary structures Broad range of stakeholders (policy makers, education and training providers, public employment services, social partners, research and specialist organisations etc.)

6 FORESIGHT GUIDE What does it contain? A. What is foresight? B. Skills in foresight activities C. Review of methods used D. Key implementation steps E. Case studies.

7 FORESIGHT What is foresight? Systematic, future intelligence gathering and medium to long term vision building process aimed to identify opportunities and areas of vulnerability to assist present-day decision-making

8 SKILL NEEDS IN FORESIGHT Skills are key element of social futures which is often neglected in foresight programmes Foresight generation typology Third and fourth generation suitable for addressing skills issues

9 FORESIGHT METHODS Comparative review of foresight methods Most frequently used methods in skills foresight Typology and detailed description (pros and cons) Patterns of application Exploratory Normative Supplementary

10 FORESIGHT METHODS Exploratory methods A. Expert panel B. Delphi method C. Horizon scanning D. Scenarios E. Cross impact analysis

11 FORESIGHT METHODS Normative methods A. Backcasting B. Morphological analysis C. Relevance tree D. Roadmapping

12 FORESIGHT METHODS Supplementary methods A. Literature and statistics review B. SWOT analysis C. Brainstorming D. Focus group

13 FORESIGHT METHODS Criteria for combining methods 1. Available resources (time, money, expertise etc.), 2. Nature of desired participation, 3. Suitability for combination with other methods; 4. Desired outputs of a foresight exercise, 5. Quantitative/qualitative data requirements of methods and 6. Methodological competence.

14 FORESIGHT METHODS Method Type Suitability for skill needs anticipation Used in countries Backcasting Normative Brainstorming Supplementary ++++ Japan, USA Cross-impact analysis Exploratory ++ - Delphi method Exploratory Brazil, Germany, Finland, Japan, Korea Usually used together with: Literature and statistics review Expert panel, Delphi method Literature and statistics review, Delphi method Literature and statistics review, Brainstorming, Scenarios Expert panel Exploratory Brazil, Canada, Germany, Finland, Japan, Korea Scenarios, Brainstorming, SWOT analysis Focus group Supplementary Scenarios Horizon scanning Exploratory +++ United Kingdom Scenarios Literature and statistics review Supplementary ++++ Korea Scenarios, Backcasting, Delphi method Morphological analysis Normative ++ - Relevance tree, Scenarios Relevance trees Normative ++ - Morphological analysis Scenarios Exploratory Brazil, Germany, Japan, Korea, United Kingdom Literature and statistics review, SWOT analysis, S&T Roadmapping S&T Roadmapping Normative + - Scenarios SWOT analysis Supplementary Scenarios, Expert panel, Delphi method

15 KEY IMPLEMENTATION STEPS Key steps for implementation of a foresight programme 1. Define foresight area to be considered 2. Clarify the purpose of the foresight exercise Consider key context factors! (Country size, level of economic development and main economic and social challenges, political stability and culture, openness and vulnerability to external changes, cultural context, institutional background and resources)

16 KEY IMPLEMENTATION STEPS 3. Clarify the key programme design elements (Objectives, scope, stakeholders/target audience, outcomes, time horizon and the expected duration of the exercise) 4. Clarify the key questions and define the best way to find answers (Methodology method mix)

17 KEY IMPLEMENTATION STEPS 5. Manage the foresight exercise Organisational structures Implementation plan Managing time and people! 6. Ensure the use of results Follow-up activities Lessons learned Evaluation

18 KEY IMPLEMENTATION STEPS Key success factors A. Setting reasonable goals and scope of activities B. Adequate institutional framework in place C. Engaged stakeholders D. Efficient use of available resources E. Adequate methods F. Effective dissemination of results

19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Martin Bakule National Training Fund National Observatory for Employment and Training