Technology Assessment. Global challenges and European prospects. Ortwin Renn June, 18, 2012 Copenhagen

Transcription

1 Technology Assessment Global challenges and European prospects Ortwin Renn June, 18, 2012 Copenhagen

2 Technology Assessment: Definition Systematic and comprehensive exploration and evaluation of technological, economic, environmental, social, psychological and cultural impacts of the development, production, use and disposal of emerging or re-emerging technologies and their respective contexts (i.e. innovation networks)

3 PART I Global Challenges

4 Ecological Challenge Since 1950s first time that global functioning of eco-services are challenged: Climate Change Water availability and desalination Dramatic decrease of biodiversity Implications for TA Trial and error not feasible any more Need for simulating errors Need for public accpeptance of anticipatory (hypothetical) interventions and actions

5 Economic challenges Globailisation of markets Fast knowledge application: key for competitiveness Interconnectivity among and between sectors, markets, politics and communication systems Emphasis on adaptive management and flexibility TA Implications TA needs to be included in the emerging phase of technologies (early warning) Need for interdisciplinary, cross-sectional analysis Adaptive management demands constant monitoring

6 Social and Cultural Challenges Loss of social cohesion (integration) Inequities between poor and rich increase Pluralism within societies (yet global universalism) Lack of consensus about global goals and means to reach them Implications for TA Emphasis on social impacts and perceptions not only physical outcomes Inclusion of tacit knowledge and plural values Orientation knowledge important aspect of TA

7 Connection to Sustainability Normative goals: System stability and integrity over time Social justice for present and future generations Assuring quality of life for all individuals Analytical prerequisites System knowledge about the interfaces between culture, society and nature Orientation knowledge about what to pursue Transformation knowledge of how to accomplish the desired goals

8 PART II How can TA Cope with these Challenges?

9 Potentials of TA Future is product of: Observed regularities and trends, Natural Technological Social Human decisions Individual Collective Random events (noise)

10 Technology Assessment: Evolution Observed regularities and trends Classic TA (Coats: US) Scientific analysis Expert judgment (Delphi) Human decisions (innovation network) Constructive TA (Dutch model) Inclusion of network partners Game theory + stakeholder involvement Human decisions (civil society) Participatory TA (Danish Model) Inclusion of value groups Discourse theory and practice

11 Potential Contributions of TA Enlightenment (causal connections) Understanding situation & context (diffusion) Instrumental Knowledge Strategic insights (what works best?) Economic potentials Incentives for modification Early warning (environmental, social) Sharpening of judgmental focus (orientation) Gaining of public support ( acceptance )

12 Responses to the Challenges Combination of all three schools of TA TA needs to be institutionalized rather than organized as an ad hoc activity It should be designed: to deal with emerging technologies combines systematic, orientational and transformational knowledge Interdisciplinary and systemic approach Inclusive of values and preferences

13 Conclusions TA is a strategic instrument to provide orientation for diverse actors in the field of technological changes and their impacts. TA is an appropriateand necessary tool to deal with the three major challenges of a globalized world (ecoology, economics, socio-cultural) TA provides orientation and instrumental knowledge for ermerging issues that rely on scientific knowledge, practical experiences and diverse value judgments

14 Quote Technology assessment does not help us to predict the future but to shape it (Joseph Coats)

15 EXTRA SLIDES

16 Major Instruments of TA Classic instruments Impact analysis Trend analysis Expert judgments (Delphi) Constructive instruments Simulation (Game theory) Scenario Construction Round Table/Stakeholder involvement Participative instruments Conflict analysis Discourse analysis Discourse practice

17 Dealing with random events Detection of structural or dynamic patterns and trends Actuarial analysis Probabilistic modeling and PRA Chaos theory Singular events Surprise scenarios Resilience based analysis Contingency planning

18 Clients for TA Studies Governments (Politics) Local Regional National Continental/global Administrations/agencies Enterprises and organizations Civil society actors (NGOs, science communities, associations) Media The Public at large