Horizon Scanning. Why & how to launch it in Lithuania? Prof. Dr. Rafael Popper
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1 VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD Horizon Scanning Why & how to launch it in Lithuania? Prof. Dr. Rafael Popper Principal Scientist in Business, Innovation and Foresight VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Finland + Professor of Foresight and STI Governance National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia + Director of Executive Education in Foresight & Honorary Research Fellow Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK
2 Outline On VTT s foresight & innovation solutions On horizon scanning & foresight processes and concepts On healthcare innovations & horizon scanning: The CfWI case On healthcare innovations & horizon scanning: The VTT Lighthouses case On why and how to launch a horizon scanning system in Lithuania? 2
3 On VTT s foresight & innovation solutions A leading R&D organisation in Nordic countries We contribute to better understanding of the societal, economic and policy context of innovation activities and research work. Business, innovation and foresight research is our focus area, supported by both qualitative and quantitative methodological competences, as well as the technology know-how of the VTT team. On customer side, we provide evidencebased decision-making support, strategy work and agenda creation for governmental actors like the Finnish ministries and international organisations like the European Commission. TOP 1 VTT is the most active patenting organisation in Finland (2017) 36% of Finnish innovations include VTT expertise We use 4 million hours of brainpower a year to develop new technological solutions
4 On horizon scanning & foresight processes and concepts
5 Foresight is a future oriented SMART process Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental / horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming (ART) technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE) futures. Scoping Futures Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues Environmental Scanning Horizon Scanning ART Anticipating Recommending Transforming Transforming Futures Recommending Futures Anticipating Futures Mobilising Futures TEEPSE futures Technological Economic Environmental Political Social Ethical Source: R. Popper (2011) 5
6
7 Foresight and horizon scanning methods and tools
8 On healthcare innovations & horizon scanning: The CfWI case
9 UK Healthcare Horizon Scanning Key objectives of The technology horizon exercise The main objective of the health Technology Horizon study was: To identify technologies that may have high impact on the services delivered by the health and social care workforce, and analyse their future implications. The exercise helped to anticipate future workforce demands and brought into the focus the workforce related discussions important policy aspects about education and training requirements, as well as ethical concerns. 9
10 UK Healthcare Horizon Scanning The process of The technology horizon exercise 10
11 UK Healthcare Horizon Scanning Key outcomes of The technology horizon exercise The results were reported in The technology horizon: preliminary review on technologies impacting the future health and social care workforce (2013). The report informed multi-level advice and thinking on the future of health and social care technologies, thus contributing to define workforce related policy priorities by anticipating potential changes in education or training. The study was structured into 5 technology areas: Therapeutic Diagnostic Enabling Preventive Organisational Top 10 health technologies Therapeutic technology Regenerative medicine Minimally invasive procedures Diagnostic technology Nanotechnology Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics Enabling technology Mobile technology Wearable health monitors Assistive technologies Preventive technology Genomics Gaming and education Organisational technology Integrated big data 11
12 The Health Technology Horizon Tools of The technology horizon exercise 12
13 On healthcare innovations & horizon scanning: The VTT Lighthouses case
14 Good life lighthouse DISRUPTION OF WORK CITIZEN CENTRIC CARE SMART BUILT ENVIRONMENT #GOODLIFEVTT NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR BETTER LIFE Growing healthcare costs together with aging population demand for a paradigm shift for prevention of non-communicable diseases and a new kind of participatory healthcare. Disruption of work robotization beyond factories is making many current jobs obsolete. The overload of human-technology relation, manifesting itself clearly in the gadgets we use in our work and free time, is increasing stress when it should make life easier. Urbanization and strained infrastructures pose pressures towards design of our living environment. Finland has the ability to answer these challenges because of well educated population, high trust level in society and a number of growth oriented companies. VTT develops new technology, service concepts and business models for the benefit of the individual in the future society.
15 Citizen centric care ENABLERS OPPORTUNITY DRIVERS PATHWAYS Increasing cost of healthcare Self-diagnostics and home monitoring Point-of-care diagnostics Evidence-based cost-effectiveness assessment Artificial intelligence Big Data Personalized nutrition Disease risk assessment Lean healthcare process Biosensors and devices Wearables Aging Chronical diseases Obesity Depression Decision support systems for citizens Bio-infobanking Decision support systems for healthcare professionals and policy makers TIME - AMBITION - VALUE ADDED Internet of medical things 5G technologies New clinical procedures ICT technologies Technologies for behaviour change Predictive health management services Virtual hospitals Molecular biology Medical technologies MUST WINS: Ensure health data analytics competence and capacity, clinical validation of technologies already during research projects, interplay between medical, bio- and ICT technology developers Preventive health support Predictive diagnostics and care Healthcare process optimization
16 On why and how to launch a horizon scanning system in Lithuania?
17 On why & how to launch a horizon scanning system in Lithuania? Healthcare and social care workforce, as well as service users will need to develop new skills for data gathering, analysis and management. Need for new education and training curricula Technological and infrastructure convergence will need to be carefully planned (possibly at local, national, European or global levels) and managed. Multi-disciplinary and multi-functional teams will be needed to successfully integrate Future Emerging Technology (FET) solutions into healthcare and social care system. Professional and peer-led information will need to be well identified and managed. 17
18 Thank you TECHNOLOGY FOR BUSINESS
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