Software Apocalypse. As a Don Quixote we regard an increasing flock of sheep as an army of professionals. 19 April 2018
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1 Software Apocalypse As a Don Quixote we regard an increasing flock of sheep as an army of professionals 19 April 2018 W.T. (Wim) Goes Directeur Valori Software Improvement VALORI Orteliuslaan 1000 Utrecht NL M E WIMGOES@VALORI.NL
2 Contents The increasing risk of software failure What measures do we have in place? The road ahead Questions / Discussion Software Apocalypse 19 April
3 The increasing risk of software failure A first example The Mars Climate Orbiter We all know the examples of failing IT systems. Failing IT systems are an increasing risk for our society and will cost us more and more. Our exploration of failing IT systems starts with a classic example, the Mars Climate Orbiter. The Mars Climate Orbiter was a robotic space probe launched by NASA on December 11, 1998 to study the Martian climate, Martian atmosphere, and surface changes. NASA lost a $125 million Mars orbiter because a Lockheed Martin engineering team used English units of measurement while the agency's team used the more conventional metric system for a key spacecraft operation. With two teams following different unit systems and no strict conversion checks in place, this is a textbook example of why interface documents have to be precise. The end result was that the module came in too low and too fast and disintegrated. Software Apocalypse 19 April
4 The increasing risk of software failure What did NASA do to prevent bugs and failures? Defects in software are called bugs. Constructing software is very time consuming and error prone. The first bug (1946) in the Harvard Mark II computer Intrinsic complexity of software development The trouble with making things out of code, as opposed to something physical, is the invisibility to the eye. "No one's skull is really big enough to contain a modern computer program" (Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer, 1972) Software has enabled us to make the most intricate machines that have ever existed. And yet we have hardly noticed, because all of that complexity is packed into tiny silicon chips as millions and millions of lines of code. But just because we can t see the complexity doesn t mean that it has gone away. Software Apocalypse 19 April
5 The increasing risk of software failure What did NASA do to prevent bugs and failures? Organizational Context & Constraints Development Team and Processes Quality norms for all development products Best 600* Average Worst Defect inser+on rate (Construc+on Ac+vi+es) Best 725 Average Worst Best 975 Average Worst Best 200 Average 400 Worst 720 Reqs Design Coding Tes+ng Best 517 Average 924 Worst? Best 690 Average Worst? Best Average Worst? Defect removal rate (Quality Ac+vi+es) Best 156 Average 280 Worst? Delivered Defects Best 100 Average 712 Worst Rela5ve cost of a bug fix *Based on a system of function points Software Apocalypse 19 April
6 The increasing risk of software failure What did NASA do to prevent bugs and failures? Guidelines and best practices for development processes and software work products Software Apocalypse 19 April
7 The increasing risk of software failure What did NASA do to prevent bugs and failures? Guidelines and best practices for development processes and software work products Software Apocalypse 19 April
8 The increasing risk of software failure What about our modern society? Smart Contracts Everything Connected Mobile Medical Devices Software Apocalypse 19 April
9 The increasing risk of software failure What about our modern society? May 6, 2010, the Flash Crash, was a United States trillion-dollar stock market crash, which lasted for approximately 36 minutes Just prior to the Flash Crash, the trader placed thousands of future contracts which he planned on canceling later. Computer based trading algorithms reacted on a spoofing algorithm used by a trader. Software Apocalypse 19 April
10 The increasing risk of software failure What about our modern society? Be prepared for normal accidents when Systems are tight coupled, and Have complex interactions Software Apocalypse 19 April
11 What measures do we have in place? What did we learn so far? Software enables us to build the most complex machines ever It is hard to build high quality, even the best in class teams leave defects in software There are many standards and guidelines for building (safety) critical software In our increasing connected world, system failures have increasing impact, normal accidents More and more systems and their connections become critical for our society and our lives So, How do we develop our professional workforce to cope with this increasing complexity and criticality? Software Apocalypse 19 April
12 What measures do we have in place? Do we trust the programmer? Software Apocalypse 19 April
13 What measures do we have in place? Do we trust programmers and IT management? Learning how to program is still the largest obstacle in higher education. Still the number of programmers roughly doubles every five year. Where do those programmers come from? So the market offers different possibilities to become a programmer When you go to the website icttrainingen.nl you can apply for title Certified Java Programmer. It will cost you 40 hours of study and paying for the exam. When you pass the exam you receive the certificate Programit.nl offers three month courses to become a junior C# or Java developer. And they are hired Software Apocalypse 19 April
14 What measures do we have in place? Do we trust programmers and IT management? Kind of software Throw Away Business Systems Mission Critical Safety Critical Example software Campaign Site Prototypes Excel calculations One time reports Internet site Inventory management Games Payroll system Embedded software Packaged software Software tools Web services Avionics software Embedded software Medical devices Operating systems Requirements Ad hoc, informal requirements Informal requirements Semiformal requirements As-needed requirements reviews Formal requirements Formal requirements inspections Design Design and coding are combined Design and coding are combined Architectural design Informal detailed design As-needed design reviews Architectural design Formal architecture inspections Formal detailed design Formal detailed design inspections Construction Individual coding No check-in procedure Pair programming or individual coding Informal check-in procedure or no check-in procedure Pair programming or individual coding Informal check-in procedure As-needed code reviews Pair programming or individual coding Formal check-in procedure Formal code inspections Testing & QA Trial and error No separate testing group Test-first development Little or no testing by a separate test group Test-first development Separate testing group Test-first development Separate testing group Separate QA group Software Apocalypse 19 April
15 What measures do we have in place? Do we trust the programmers and IT management? Example software Requirements Kind of software Throw Away Business Systems Mission Critical Safety Critical Campaign Site Prototypes Excel calculations One time reports Ad hoc, informal requirements Internet site Inventory management Games Payroll system Informal requirements Embedded software Packaged software Software tools Web services Semiformal requirements As-needed requirements reviews Avionics software Embedded software Medical devices Operating systems Development direction of the IT systems in our society Formal requirements Formal requirements inspections Design Construction Design and coding are combined Design and coding are combined Architectural design Informal detailed design As-needed design reviews Architectural design Formal architecture inspections Formal detailed design Formal detailed design inspections Individual coding Pair programming or individual Pair programming or individual Pair programming or individual No check-in procedure coding coding coding Development direction of programmer workforce Informal check-in procedure or Informal check-in procedure Formal check-in procedure no check-in procedure As-needed code reviews Formal code inspections Testing & QA Trial and error No separate testing group Test-first development Little or no testing by a separate test group Test-first development Separate testing group Test-first development Separate testing group Separate QA group Software Apocalypse 19 April
16 What measures do we have in place? Do we trust programmers and IT management? As a Don Quixote we regard an increasing flock of sheep as an army of professionals Kind of software Throw Away Business Systems Mission Critical Safety Critical Example software Campaign Site Prototypes Excel calculations One time reports Internet site Inventory management Games Payroll system Embedded software Packaged software Software tools Web services Avionics software Embedded software Medical devices Operating systems Development direction of the IT systems in our society Requirements Ad hoc, informal requirements Informal requirements Semiformal requirements Formal requirements As-needed requirements Formal requirements reviews inspections Design Construction Design and coding are Design and coding are Architectural design Architectural design combined combined Informal detailed design Formal architecture inspections As-needed design reviews Formal detailed design Formal detailed design inspections Development direction of programmer workforce Individual coding No check-in procedure Pair programming or individual coding Informal check-in procedure or no check-in procedure Pair programming or individual coding Informal check-in procedure As-needed code reviews Pair programming or individual coding Formal check-in procedure Formal code inspections Testing & QA Trial and error No separate testing group Test-first development Little or no testing by a separate test group Test-first development Separate testing group Test-first development Separate testing group Separate QA group Software Apocalypse 19 April
17 The rough road ahead Accidents will be increasingly normal so what to do next? Create awareness for the upcoming apocalypse Stimulate a Continuous dialog between developers and managers Create a craftsmanship culture High quality education, certification Master Apprentice model It will be hard work, requiring continuous attention Or stop writing source code Create less code, we humans are not fit to write code Develop new approaches to instruct machines Software Apocalypse 19 April
18 The rough road ahead.. Join the struggle for increasing craftsmanship! I am worried about the upcoming software apocalypse in a world which increasingly depends on software systems Increasing craftsmanship is required and should be created and promoted Will you join me? Wim Goes Valori Software Improvement E: WimGoes@valori.nl T: Software Apocalypse 19 April
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