Soccer Cup 2018 simulation Johan Nordling. Unrestricted Siemens AG 2018
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1 Soccer Cup 2018 simulation Johan Nordling
2 Soccer Cup 2018 model Run in Maximized or Full screen mode Turn off all toolbars, explorer etc. Fits in 16x9 resolution Page 2
3 First simulation Open EventController and reduce speed heavily Explain the 8 groups (A-H) and that teams get put up on the field The match result is simulated and the outcome depends on the skill level of each team The whole simulation takes about 0.03 second, so play slow Page 3
4 The statistics behind Open the Start Here dialog Open the Team odds The Rate Column are the odds that this team will win the complete tournament this is used as the team Skill level The rates come from Bet365 on June 12, Feel free to update them on your own. Page 4
5 Focus Nation Select the team that you would like specific statistics from at the end of the simulation experiment This does not affect the Team Statistics, there is only data for Sweden at the moment. Please fill free to enter your own team. Page 5
6 1000 tournaments Explain that no simulation results can be trusted after only one simulation run, especially not when stochastic functions are used You have to run a larger number of experiments this is something our system is very good at! Open the Experiment Manager Show the 1000 observations this is how many tournaments we will run Press Reset and Start Running 1000 observations takes about seconds Page 6
7 Dynamic charts The number of total tournament wins are recorded for each nation as the simulation runs In the chart here, you can see that Brazil wins about 160 times out of 1000 Page 7
8 Report I At the end of the experiment, open the Report Now you can close the normal chart (it is found in the report as well) You can also see the input data (teams and odds) Page 8
9 Report II The second report page shows a graph from the focus nation you selected in the previous dialog In this example you can see that Sweden wins the cup in 0.4 % of the time (you see, its possible!!!) Page 9
10 Team statistics Open this view to have a look at individual players in a team Currently, only Sweden is implemented, but feel free to change that. Page 10
11 Team statistics Start by clicking Init in the Team_statistics dialog (this resets all results/charts) Click Start to open the EventController (not the same as in the other model) Reduce speed just a tiny bit (just to see the chart updating a bit more nicely) Page 11
12 Team statistics Open the Team Statistics chart and explain that we will analyze the individual players Start the simulation slowly and gradually increase speed The result will look something like this: Ok, but not really what it takes to win a tournament Explain that now it is the simulation engineers task to analyze the numbers and see where we can improve! Page 12
13 Team statistics Click the tick-boxes (Increase, Focus, Work) Press Set when you are done (this will set the right parameters Reset and Start the simulation again After a few seconds the chart will adjust itself and the flag will appear The players are now: Engaged Focused Working as a Team Page 13
14 Good Luck! Page 14
15 Alternate introduction When running this at a customer event, I started by introducing a normal demo and then changed the scope slightly (it was fun to see the audience go from confusion and boredom after slide 3 to a bit more enthusiastic!) I have a separate presentation for this: Page 15
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