The Next big Thing. Colorado Space Grant Consortium Seminar. Dr. James R. Stuart

Transcription

1 The Next big Thing Colorado Space Grant Consortium Seminar Dr. James R. Stuart 11 November 2010

2 Brief History of Space Commercial Space Achievements by Government and Big Corporations Beginnings of Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Visionary Space Entrepreneurs and their Projects

3 1813 William Moore 1903 Konstantin Tsiolovsky 1915 NACA formed 1926 Robert Goddard - first liquid rocket 1938 Werner von Baun - V2 rocket prototype 1945 Arthur C. Clarke - Extra-Terrestrial Relays 1957 USSR Sputnik 1958 NASA formed Sputnik

4 Brief History of Space (cont d) 1957 Vanguard Dr. Bill Pickering 1958 NASA/JPL s Explorer-1 Dr. Jim Van Allen Dr. Wernher von Braun 1960 von Braun - Director of NASA MSFC 1961 Yuri Gregarin - 1st tourist orbits Earth 1961 Alan Shepard - 1st USA suborbital 1962 John Glenn - orbits Earth

5 Brief History of Space (cont d) 1962 AT&T Telstar satellite 1963 Joe Walker - X-15 to 67 miles Telstar-2 5/63 Syncom Intelsat formed countries 1969 Moon Landing

6 Brief History of Space (cont d) 1981 First Shuttle Launch 1984 Challenger Dr. Joe Allen 1984 Columbia 2003

7 Brief History of Space (cont d) USSR/Russian MIR Space Station

8 Brief History of Space (cont d) 1998-Present International Space Station Oct. 15, 2010 Raffaello module Cupola Observatory

9 Brief History of Space (cont d) International Space Station

10 Brief History of Space (cont d) 1997 Mars Rover - Pathfinder 2004 Mars Rovers - Spirit and Opportunity

11 Brief History of Space (cont d) 2005 Saturn s Titan Lander - ESA Huygens 2006 Saturn s Enceladus o WATER Underground Water Ocean Cassini Flew through Water Geysers

12 Brief History of Space (cont d) 2008 Titan 2nd Underground Ocean Discovered Surface Ice Volcanoes,» Weather, Rivers, Methane Lakes Underground Water Ocean Surface Methane Lakes: 2008 Mars Lander Phoenix Water Ice and Ice Crystal Snowfall 2009/10 Lunar Ice In South Pole Craters (~Great Salt Lake) In North Pole Craters (600M MT) Global thin H 2 O film layer Cabeus Crater LCROSS 10/09

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14 GPS o o o 1960 s TRANSIT 1972 developmental flight tests at White Sands 1978 launch of first Block-I GPS satellite o > 70 B$ global commercial revenues by 2013 DirecTV, Liberty, EchoStar, etc. o Dr. John Malone Yale BA EE/Econ, JHU MSIM, PhD OR 1973 CEO of TCI 1998 sold for 48B$ Dr. John Malone (68) o Charlie Ergen MBA, Professional Gambler 1970 s: sold Big dishes 1980 founded Echostar Value >6B$ Orbital Sciences Corp. Founded 1983 Charlie Ergen (56)

15 Rene Anselmo - Maverick Privatized Sat Com Industry Truth and Technology will Triumph Over Bullshit and Bureaucracy o 1963 Founded Spanish International Network o 1984 Founded PANAMSAT o 1987 Sold SIN (UNIVISION) for $80M o 1988 Launched PAS-1 Refurbished Satellite, 1st Ariane 4 Launch Broke INTELSAT Monopoly 1991 NYT Cartoon Ad - My Dog Spot Urinating on legs of problem politicians o 1995 Died at 69 (2 days before IPO) o 2004 PANAMSAT sold for $2.6B Rene Anselmo

16 Rene Anselmo Maverick Privatized Sat Com Industry

17 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Drs. Joe Allen, Max Faget - First Private Space Station effort 1982 and 1984 Shuttle Astronaut 1985 Joined Space Industries Inc. Founded 1982 by Max Faget INDUSTIAL SPACE FACILITY Private/Government Partnership 1988 Reagan requested $700M No Congress Approval Max Faget Dr. Joe Allen

18 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Orbital Sciences Corp o 1982 Founding o 1984 $50M LP Raise o 1986 $160M in TOS Sales o 1990 Pegasus 1st Launch o 1990 IPO (NYSE: ORB) o 2009 Taurus II from Wallops Island (2010 New Competitor: LMA/ATK s resumed Athena 1c, 2c) o 2010 acquires GD sat mfg (Gilbert, AZ) TOS TOS Pegasus Pegasus OSC s Wallops Island, VA Taurus II LMA/ATK s at CCAFS (VAFB,

19 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Low Earth Orbit Constellations Bubble o Big Corporations - Spent $ Billions o BUBBLE BURST - No Market Uptake - Lost $ Billions 1991 Iridium - Motorola o 1998 Service Start 1999 Bankruptcy 1991 Globalstar - Loral and Qualcomm o 2000 Service Start 2002 Bankruptcy Globalstar 1991 Orbcomm - Orbital Sciences o 1996 Service Start 2000 Bankruptcy

20 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Teledesic - $10B Mega Constellation o 1990 Founded o 1997 Licensed Granted o 1998 IPO scheduled o 2003 Liquidated Bill Gates and Craig McCaw Bill Gates (now 55) Craig McCaw (now 61)

21 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) 1993 Leo ONE PANAMERICA o Jose Manuel Villalvazo Baz (was 38) o Mexico License granted 1995 Closed Leo ONE USA o David A. Bayer (was 51) o USA License granted 1998 Closed KiTcomm o H. James Kennett (was 36) KITcomm o Australian License granted 1997 Closed 2004 Leo One 1993 Athena 1, 2 Launcher o Lockheed Martin (Corp funded) o 7 Launches Cancelled 2001 Athena 1 From Kodiak Island 9/30/01

22 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble o Rotary Rocket Corp. Gary Hudson (was 45) Tom Clancy

23 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble (cont d) o American Rocket Company 1985: George A. Koopman ( ) Founder: Insgroup Inc. Produced: Movies, Books, Albums Founder: AmRoc (was 41) $20M invested: 300 rocket tests George Koopman 1998 IP Sold to SpaceDev

24 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Innovative Launchers Caught in Bubble o Kelly Space & Technology Astroliner Mike Kelly (was 39)

25 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Innovative Launchers (cont d) o VentureStar X-33 Dave Urie, Proj Mngr

26 Entrepreneurial Space Privatization Beginnings (cont d) Innovative Launchers (cont d) o DARPA s DC-X Delta Clipper Basis of Bezos Blue Origin

27 Space Tourism Businesses o Zero-G Flights o Space Prizes o Space Tourism Suborbital Flights Spaceports, Astronaut Dude Ranches o Space Tourism Orbital Flights o Orbital Space Hotels

28 1990 s Russians sold 5-10 trips to MIR o Foreign Astronauts, Japanese Reporter, UK Contest Winner Space Adventures - Eric Anderson (36) o Co-Founder Space Adventures 1997 (at 23) o Co-Founder Cosmopolis XXI 2007 Eric Anderson (36)

29 Space Tourists (cont d) 2001 Dennis Tito (now 68) o Ex-JPL, Orbit Analysis Software o Founder Wilshire Associates Dennis Tito

30 Space Tourists (cont d) 2002 Mark Shuttleworth (35) o UK, born South Africa o Founder Thawte Sold to VeriSign for $575M Mark Shuttleworth 2005 Greg Olsen (64) o Founder Sensors Unlimited Sold for $750M, Bought Back for $7M Resold to Goodrich during launch Greg Olsen

31 2006 Anousheh Ansari (42) Space Tourists (cont d) o Founder Prodea Systems, telecon technologies o Sold for $550M to Sonus Networks o Ansari X-Prize Anousheh Ansari 2007, 2009 Dr. Charles Simonyi (61) o Microsoft since 1981 (WORD, EXCEL) o 3/09 2 nd flight to ISS (35M$) Dr. Charles Simonyi

32 Space Tourists (cont d) 2007 Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor (38) o Malaysian Orthopedic Surgeon o Angkasawan Spaceflight program Bundled with 18 Russian SU30 MKM Figher Jet deal Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor 2008 Richard Garriott (47) o Founded ORIGIN, ULTIMA o Sold to Electronic Arts Guy Laliberté 2009 Guy Laliberté (51) o Founder Cirque du Soleil o Paid 35 M$ Backup: Barbara Barrett Former Dep Admin FAA Husband ex-chairman, CEO Intel Richard Garriott 3/10/10 End of Soyuz rides

33 Space Tourists (cont d) ~2011 Sergey Brin (35) o Co-Founder Google o Space Adventures Investor o Cosmopolis XXI Sergey Brin ~2011/12 Vladimir Gruzdev (42) o Founder Largest Retailer in Russia o Explorer, Parliament Waiting in line for Soyuz to resume Vladimir Gruzdev

34 Dr. Peter Diamandis (now 49)

35 100 Aviation Prizes offered o $25k Orteig Prize: 1927 Charles Lindbergh to Paris Space Prizes o SFF Cheap Access to Space (CATS) Prize o Heinlein Prize o Planetary Society Asteroid Tagging Prize o Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Prize: o NASA Centennial Challenges o Florida $40M RLV Prize $10M Ansari X-Prize 3 people to 100 km (62 miles), Repeat within 2 weeks $30M Google Lunar X-Prize Land on Moon, Traverse, Snap Photos, Transmit $50M Space America Prize 5 people to 400km, 2 orbits, Repeat within 60 days John Cusack s Armadillo Aerospace Lunar Lander Entry

36 John Cusack (40) o Co-founder id Software (at 21) Games: Doom 1-4, Rage, Quake 1-4, etc. Doom RPG for iphone Engines: Half-Life, Call of Duty, Medal of Honor, etc. 4th person inducted into AIAS Hall of Fame (Academy of Interactive Arts and Sciences) o Founder Armadillo Aerospace (2001) Lunar Lander Challenge: Won 350k$ prize 10/08 Qualified for 1M$ prize 9/09 Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Entry

37 Peter Diamandis (48) o Co-Founder of SEDS (at 19) o Founder of International Space University (at 26) o Founder Zero-G (at 32) o Co-Founder of Angel Technologies (at 35) o Founder of X-Prize Foundation (at 35) o Co-Founder of Space Adventures (at 37) o Founder X-Cup (at 44) o Founder Rocket Racing League (at 45) Dr. Peter Diamandis

38 2004 $10M won by Paul Allen and Burt Rutan

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40 Ansari X-Prize (cont d) Paul Allen (now 57) o Co-Founder Microsoft o Experience Music Project o Sci Fi Museum o Co-Founder Space Ship Company o Owns Trailblazers, Seahawks and Sounders Paul Allen Burt Rutan

41 Burt Rutan (67) Ansari X-Prize (cont d) o Founder Scaled Composites o Co-Founder Space Ship Company Burt Rutan Just Announced Retiring 4/11

42 Larry Page (36)

43 Bob Bigelow (now 57) o Founder Budget Suites of America o Founder Bigelow Aerospace o Founder National Institute for Discovery Science Bob Bigelow

44 Virgin Galactic Sir Richard Branson (60) Abu Dhabi Group invests 8/09 280M$ (32%) Completed Captive-Carry Flight Test: 3/10 Passenger Flights to begin: 1Q12

45 George French o Founder Space Explorers o Rocketplane o Kistler George French

46 BSC DreamChaser - Jim Benson o Founder CompuSearch (at 38) o Founder ImageFast (at 44) o Founder Space Development Corp (at 52) o Founder Benson Space Company (at 61) Jim Benson (died at 63) DreamChaser purchased with SDC by Sierra Nevada Corp. (Louisville, CO division)

47 Blue Origin - Jeff Bezos (47) o Founder Amazon (at 30) o Founder Blue Origin (at 40) Jeff Bezos (47) New Shepard Experiments - remote control in 2011 Experiments - ride along in 2012

48 New Mexico - Spaceport America Oklahoma Texas California Florida Hawaii Dubai, etc. Spaceport America

49 SpaceX - Elon Musk (39) o Co-Founder Zip2 (at 24) o Co-Founder PayPal (at 27) o Founder Space Exploration Technologies (at 31) o Co-Founder Tesla Motors (at 32) o Co-Founder Solar City (at 35) 10/29/09 Tesla Gallery opened Boulder, CO Elon Musk 9/28/08 4 th Falcon 1 - First private liquid rocket into orbit 7/14/09 5 th Falcon 1 - Launch of RazakSat Kimbal Musk: March 2010 Falcon 9 Erected at CCAFS for Inaugural Launch w/dragon Capsule CEO, OneRiot Chef, Kitchen Restaurant (Boulder, CO) Sched. Launch: Dec. 7, 2010 Dragon Capsule Dragon Capsule

50 Bigelow Aerospace Corp.- Bob Bigelow (58) o 180 M$ invested through 2009 ( up to 500M$ to 2015) o Sundancer to launch on Falcon 9 ~ person space station module Sundancer To launch 2014 Genesis 2 Genesis 1 Launched 6/07 on Dnepr Launched 7/06 on Dnepr (SS- 18)

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52 About Author: Dr. James R. Stuart is an independent, internationally recognized consultant specializing in the development of new technologies, advanced systems and commercial businesses, an inventor and a serial entrepreneur. He has consulted to over 100 companies in the past 30 years. Dr. Stuart holds 18 patents in space vehicles design, satellite telecommunications, launchers, personal computing, wireless communications, digital rights management and RFID s (another 9 are pending). He is currently a Board Director of 4 entrepreneurial, high-technology companies, a member of Louisville s Board of Adjustment, and President of Boulder/Front Range Mensa. He has been a Board Director of 35 companies and an Advisory Board member of 18 companies. Dr. Stuart has been a professional expert witness in 4 major space industry litigations. Dr. Stuart has held positions as the President of IOSTAR Corp. (development of commercial nuclear-powered space vehicles) in Salt Lake City, UT, the CEO of SkyVault Secure Digital Distribution, Inc. in Carmel, CA, the CEO and President of Kitcomm Satellite Communications Ltd. in Hamilton, Bermuda, the Vice President and Chief Architect of Teledesic Corp. in Bellevue, WA, and as the Chief Scientist and the Chief Engineer at Ball Aerospace in Boulder, CO. He was previously the founding Chief Engineer of Orbital Sciences Corporation (ORB: NYSE), the Assistant Laboratory Director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), and the Development and Flight Program Manager at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of both the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Mission (launched 1981) and the Mars Observer Mission (launched 1992). Dr. Stuart was a member of three graduate engineering faculties of the University of Colorado at Boulder for 19 years, in the Electrical Engineering, the Telecommunications and the Aerospace Engineering Sciences Departments. He has been a regular lecturer at various universities, including the Stanford University Graduate School of Business and the Naval Postgraduate School. He received his Ph.D. in Systems Engineering (1979), M.S. in Operations Research (1977), and M.S. in Electrical Engineering (1974) from the University of Southern California, and his B.S. in Physics (1968) from the University of Washington. Dr. Stuart has received numerous professional awards, including NASA's Exceptional Service Medal for his project management of JPL s Solar Mesosphere Explorer Project. He has been listed in Via Satellite's "Top 100 Executives in the Satellite Communications Industry". He was the author of a graduate engineering, two-volume text entitled Satellite Communications Systems, co-author of Telecommunications: An Interdisciplinary Text, and has published over 165 professional papers.