INTERNAL AUDITING & RISK MANAGEMENT

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2 INTERNAL AUDITING & RISK MANAGEMENT Revistă trimestrială editată de Universitatea Athenaeum & Centrul de Excelenţă în Managementul Financiar şi Audit Intern ANUL V, NR.2(18), IUNIE 2010 Quarterly journal published by the "Athenaeum" University & Centre of Excellence in Financial Management and Internal Audit YEAR V, NO.2 (18), JUNE 2010

3 INTERNAL AUDITING & RISK MANAGEMENT Revistă trimestrială editată de Universitatea Athenaeum & Centrul de Excelenţă în Managementul Financiar şi Audit Intern ANUL V, NR.2(18), IUNIE 2010 COLEGIUL DE REDACŢIE / EDITORIAL BOARD: Director editorial / Editorial Director: Prof.univ.dr. Emilia VASILE Secretar general de redacţie / Executive Editor: Conf.univ.dr. Marin POPESCU Membri / Members: Redactor şef / Editor chief: Prof.univ.dr. Ion NIŢU Prof.univ.dr.Aron Liviu DEAC Lector dr.daniela MITRAN Conf.univ.dr.Mariana BĂLAN Lector dr.nataliţa HURDUC COLEGIUL ŞTIINŢIFIC / ADVISORY BOARD: Academician Ion Păun OTIMAN, Secretar General al Academiei Române Academician Iulian VĂCĂREL Prof.univ.dr.Gheorghe ZAMAN, Membru corespondent al Academiei Române Prof.univ.dr. Eden ALI Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti Prof.dr.ing. Petru ANDEA Universitatea Politehnică din Timişoara Prof.univ.dr. Horia CRISTEA Universitatea de Vest Timişoara Prof.univ.dr. Ion CUCUI Universitatea Valahia din Târgovişte Prof.univ.dr. Mariana MAN Universitatea din Petroşani Prof.univ.dr. Dumitru MĂRGULESCU Universitatea Athenaeum din Bucureşti Prof.univ.dr. Pavel NĂSTASE Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti Prof.univ.dr. Verginia VEDINAŞ Universitatea Bucureşti Adrian VASILESCU Consilier Banca Naţională a României Prof.univ.dr. Robert ANCIAUX Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgia Prof.univ.dr. Basil NEACŞA Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgia Prof.univ.dr.Shawki SAID MOHAMED ALI-University for Science and Technology Egypt Prof.univ.dr.Emad EL DIN MAHMOUD ALI EID Al Zarka High Institute for Computer and Business Administration Egypt Tehnoredactare / Made-up: Mariana Geantă Adresa redacţiei / Editorial Office: Universitatea Athenaeum din Bucureşti BUCUREŞTI, Str.Giuseppe Garibaldi nr.2a, sector 2 Telefon: ; ; Fax: ; biblioteca@univath.ro; secretariat@univath.ro ISSN (print) ISSN (online) Revistă evaluată de Consiliul Naţional al Cercetării Ştiinţifice din Învăţământul Superior şi clasificată în categoria B+, indexată în Bazele de date internaţionale DOAJ, ULRICH, EBSCO.

4 C U P R I N S C O N T E N T S 1. Crearea Uniunii Economice şi Monetare în Europa, premiză a eficienţei şi stabilităţii sistemului financiar individual şi de grup... Ion NIŢU Nataliţa HURDUC Nicoleta HURDUC Creating the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, a requisite for maintaining the efficiency and stability of the individual and the group financial system... Ion NIŢU Nataliţa HURDUC Nicoleta HURDUC 2. Un model fuzzy pentru estimarea economiei subterane în România Corina - Maria ENE Nataliţa HURDUC A fuzzy model to estimate Romanian underground economy... Corina - Maria ENE Nataliţa HURDUC 3. Riscul de mediu in podgoriile româneşti... Mariana BRAN Dan BOBOC Raluca Andreea ION Bebe NEGOESCU Environmental risk in romanian vineyards Mariana BRAN Dan BOBOC Raluca Andreea ION Bebe NEGOESCU 4. Misunderstanding of role and position of accounting standard setting authorities to reduce information asymmetry: Empirical evidence of Iran... Hamidreza VAKILIFARD Hashem NIKOOMARAM Vahab ROSTAMI Mahdi SALEHI Daniela MITRAN

5 CREAREA UNIUNII ECONOMICE ŞI MONETARE ÎN EUROPA, PREMIZĂ A EFICIENŢEI ŞI STABILITĂŢII SISTEMULUI FINANCIAR INDIVIDUAL ŞI DE GRUP Prof.univ.dr. Ion NIŢU Universitatea Athenaeum Lector dr.nataliţa HURDUC Universitatea Athenaeum Drd.Nicoleta HURDUC Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti Abstract: Eurosistemul este un factor activ în consolidarea măsurilor care contribuie la stabilitatea financiară nu numai în zona euro ci şi la nivelul Uniunii Europene. Acest lucru a devenit necesar urmare integrării tot mai accentuate şi a evoluţiei tot mai rapide a pieţelor financiare din Europa. În domeniul gestionării crizelor financiare, Eurosistemul, prin BCE efectuează anual evaluări macroprudenţiale şi structurale ale sectorului bancar din UE şi promovează încheierea unor acorduri voluntare de cooperare între autorităţi. Pentru consolidarea stabilităţii financiare însă, este necesară îmbunătăţirea constantă a măsurilor şi politicilor monetare pentru a răspunde provocărilor care decurg din complexitatea cadrului institutional al UE. Cuvinte cheie: Uniunea Europeană, Eurosistem, politica monetară, stabilitate financiară. Clasificare JEL: E52, E58, G21 I. Introducere 1 I.1. Integrarea Europeană Crearea uniunii economice şi monetare în Europa a fost anticipată o dată cu înfiinţarea în anul 1952 a Comunităţii Europene a Cărbunelui şi Oţelului (CECO), din care făceau parte şase state europene: Belgia, Germania, Franţa, Italia, Luxemburg şi Tarile de Jos. In anul 1958 aceleaşi şase ţări au fondat Comunitatea Economică Europeană (CEE) şi Comunitatea Europeană a Energiei Atomice (CEEA). In timp, o dată cu consolidarea relaţiilor interstatale, s-a fondat Comunitatea Europeană (CE), iar în anul 1993 odată cu adoptarea Tratatului de la Maastricht, s-a înfiinţat Uniunea Europeană. 1 The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks (april, 2009); 1

6 În perioada anilor , numărul statelor membre ale Uniunii Europene a crescut la 27, prin aderarea următoarelor ţări: Danemarca, Irlanda şi Regatul Unit al Marii Britanii (1973), Grecia (1981), Portugalia şi Spania (1986), Austria, Finlanda şi Suedia (1995), Republica Cehă, Estonia, Cipru, Letonia, Lituania, Ungaria, Malta, Polonia, Slovenia şi Slovacia (2004), Bulgaria şi România (2007). I.2. Condiţii de aderare la Uniunea Europeană (UE) Ţările care doreau să adere la UE, trebuiau să îndeplinească în prealabil, o serie de condiţii, denumite Criteriile de la Copenhaga, care prevăd ca viitoarele state membre să dispună de: - instituţii stabile care să garanteze democraţia, statul de drept, drepturile omului, precum şi respectarea şi protecţia minorităţilor; - o economie de piaţă funcţională şi capacitatea de a face faţă presiunilor concurenţiale. I.3. Etapele parcurse în realizarea Uniunii Economice şi Monetare Realizarea Uniunii Economice şi Monetare a presupus parcurgerea a trei etape : prima etapă realizată între anii 1990 şi 1993, s-a caracterizat în principal prin definirea pieţei unice europene, ca urmare a înlăturării tuturor barierelor interne în calea liberei circulaţii a persoanelor, mărfurilor, capitalurilor şi serviciilor în Europa; a doua etapă realizată între anii 1994 şi 1998, a început cu înfiinţarea Institutului Monetar European şi s-au făcut pregătiri de ordin tehnic pentru adoptarea monedei unice, evitării deficitelor excesive şi intensificării procesului de convergenţă a politicilor economice şi monetare ale statelor membre (în vederea asigurării stabilităţii preţurilor şi solidităţii finanţelor publice); a treia etapă a început la 1 ianuarie 1999, prin fixarea irevocabilă a cursurilor de schimb, transferarea către Banca Centrală Europeană a competenţelor în domeniul politicilor monetare şi introducerea monedei euro, ca monedă unică. Prin aderarea la Uniunea Europeană, statele membre se angajează să adopte moneda euro, într-un anumit număr de ani, atunci cand vor îndeplini anumite criterii de convergenţă. I.4. Criteriile de convergenţă pentru adoptarea monedei unice euro Tratatul de la Maastricht prevede ca ţările care doresc adoptarea monedei unice euro trebuie să îndeplinească anumite criterii, care să demonstreze un nivel ridicat de,,convergenţă durabilă. Criteriile de convergenţă sunt următoarele: 2

7 - un grad înalt de stabilitate a preţurilor; - finanţe publice solide; - un curs de schimb stabil; - rate scăzute şi stabile ale dobănzilor pe termen lung; - independenţa băncii centrale a statului. Aceste criterii pot fi realizate doar de acele state care promovează politici economice orientate către stabilitate şi care prezintă un istoric de stabilitate a preţurilor. II. Eurosistemul şi Sistemul European al Băncilor Centrale Naţionale 1 Eurosistemul cuprinde Banca Centrală Europeană şi Băncile Centrale Naţionale ale statelor membre care au adoptat euro (în prezent sunt 16 state). Sistemul European al Băncilor Centrale (SEBC) este format din Banca Centrală Europeană şi băncile centrale naţionale ale tuturor statelor membre ale UE. Băncile Centrale Naţionale ale statelor membre care nu au adoptat moneda unică îşi menţin propriile competenţe în domeniul politicii monetare, în conformitate cu legislaţia naţională (Banca Naţionala a României face parte din SEBC). II.1. Atributiile Eurosistemului Eurosistemul are patru atributii majore : 1. aplicarea politicii monetare adoptate de către BCE (de exemplu: decizii privind ratele dobânzilor reprezentative, decizii referitoare la obiectivele monetare şi furnizarea de lichiditate); 2. derularea operaţiunilor valutare; 3. deţinerea şi administrarea rezervelor oficiale ale statelor din zona euro; 4. promovarea bunei funcţionări a sistemelor de plăţi. Alte atribuţii: realizarea supravegherii financiare, elaborarea statisticilor monetare şi financiare, consilierea legislatorilor în sfera sa de competenţă, emiterea de bancnote euro. Trebuie remarcat în mod deosebit faptul că Eurosistemului îi este interzis în prezent acordarea de credite organismelor comunitare sau entităţilor din sectorul public naţional, fapt care îi sporeşte independenţa, protejându-l de orice tip de influenţă exercitată de către autorităţile publice. Ca urmare a crizei financiare din Grecia (2010), au apărut susţinători ai ideei formării unui organism european nou, a unui Fond Monetar European, care ar urma să acorde sprijin ţărilor membre Eurosistemului, ţări aflate în dificultate (ceea ce în prezent îi este interzis Eurosistemului). 1 The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks (april, 2009); 3

8 II.2. Obiectivele Eurosistemului Obiectivul principal al Eurosistemului este menţinerea stabilităţii preţurilor. Celelalte obiective ale Eurosistemului (progresul economic şi social, un grad ridicat de ocupare a forţei de muncă, o dezvoltare durabilă şi echilibrată) se pot realiza doar prin menţinerea stabilităţii preţurilor. Inflaţia şi deflaţia reprezintă fenomene economice importante, care pot avea consecinţe negative asupra economiei. Inflaţia este definită ca o creştere generală a preturilor bunurilor şi serviciilor pe o perioadă îndelungată, care conduce la scăderea valorii banilor şi deci a puterii de cumpărare a acestora. Deflaţia este definită ca o scădere generală a preţurilor pe o perioadă îndelungată. In absenţa inflaţiei sau deflaţiei, putem spune că apare stabilitatea preţurilor, perioada în care preţurile rămân stabile în timp. Este important să se facă distincţia între variaţiile preţurilor oricăror bunuri sau servicii considerate individual şi cele ale nivelului general al preţurilor. Modificările frecvente ale preţurilor individuale sunt relativ normale în economiile de piaţă, chiar şi atunci când preţurile sunt stabile în ansamblu. Modificarea condiţiilor privind cererea şi/sau oferta de diferite bunuri sau servicii considerate individual conduce la variaţii ale preţurilor. Pentru măsurarea inflatiei, de obicei se utilizează indicatorul indicele preţurilor de consum. In acest scop, se analizează tiparele de cumpărare ale consumatorilor pentru a identifica articole de bunuri şi servicii pe care aceştia le cumpără în mod obişnuit şi care pot fi considerate ca fiind reprezentative pentru consumul mediu într-o economie. Înscrierea acestor articole intr-o listă de cumpărături şi ponderarea lor în funcţie de importanţa în bugetele consumatorilor conduc la elaborarea a ceea ce este cunoscut drept coşul de consum. Trebuie spus însă că evoluţia nivelului preţurilor identificată prin intermediul acestui coş, reflectă numai situaţia unui consumator,,mediu. Altfel spus, inflaţia măsurată cu ajutorul indicelui reprezintă doar o măsurare aproximativă a situatiei medii din economie, care nu este identică cu variaţiile nivelului general al preţurilor cu care se confruntă fiecare consumator. II.2.1. Avantajele principale ale stabilităţii preţurilor 1. Stabilitatea preţurilor permite populaţiei şi întreprinderilor să identifice cu uşurinţă variaţiile la nivelul preţurilor bunurilor în raport cu alte bunuri putând lua decizii legate de consum şi investiţii în cunoştinţă de cauză. 2. Stabilitatea preţurilor permite creditorilor să renunţe la solicitarea primei de risc de inflaţie pentru compensarea riscurilor inflaţioniste asociate deţinerii de active nominale pe termen mai lung. Astfel, debitorii profitând de scăderea ratelor de plată, îşi folosesc resursele mai eficient, în investiţii care pot favoriza crearea de locuri de muncă şi realizarea unei prosperităţi economice în general. 4

9 3. Stabilitatea preţurilor motivează persoanele fizice şi întreprinderile să nu deturneze resurse din sfera productivă, pentru a se proteja împotriva inflaţiei sau a deflaţiei (de exemplu, indexarea veniturilor nominale la evoluţia preţurilor), contribuind astfel la dezvoltarea economică. 4. Stabilitatea preţurilor previne apariţia unor probleme majore de ordin economic, social şi politic legate de distribuirea arbitrară a avuţiei şi a veniturilor, observată în perioadele de inflaţie şi de deflaţie. De exemplu, în perioada de inflaţie deţinătorii de economii la bănci se confruntă cu scăderea valorii reale a economiilor lor, în timp ce titularii de credite au de rambursat o valoare reală mai mică. In aceste situaţii apare fenomenul de transfer relativ de venituri de la deţinătorii de economii la titularii de credite. In perioade de deflaţie fenomenul este invers. 5. Reevaluările bruşte ale activelor, ca urmare a unor variaţii neprevăzute ale inflaţiei, pot compromite soliditatea bilanţului unei bănci. De exemplu, o creştere neprevăzută a inflaţiei va conduce la o scădere a valorii reale a activelor, iar banca se poate confrunta cu probleme de solvabilitate. Dacă prin politica monetară se menţine stabilitatea preţurilor, şocurile inflaţioniste sau deflaţioniste la adresa reală a activelor nominale sunt evitate, iar stabilitatea financiară este astfel consolidată. Prin menţinerea stabilităţii preţurilor, băncile centrale contribuie la realizarea obiectivelor economice generale, cum ar fi: nivel de trai mai ridicat, expansiunea mai stabilă a activităţii economice şi un grad mai ridicat de ocupare a forţei de muncă. II.3. Instrumentele de politică monetară care ajută Eurosistemul la realizarea obiectivelor sale 1 Pentru realizarea obiectivelor sale, Eurosistemul dispune de un set de instrumente de politică monetară: a. operaţiuni pe piaţa monetară; b. facilităţi permanente; c. constituirea de rezerve minime obligatorii. a. Operaţiuni pe piaţa monetară Operaţiunile pe piaţa monetară deţin un rol important în politica monetară a Eurosistemului, având drept scop ghidarea ratelor dobânzilor, gestionarea condiţiilor de lichiditate pe piaţă şi indicarea orientării politicii monetare. Pentru efectuarea operaţiunilor pe piaţa monetară sunt folosite cinci tipuri de instrumente: tranzacţiile reversibile (aplicabile pe baza contractelor repo sau a creditelor colateralizate), tranzacţii simple, emiterea de certificate de debit, 1 The implementation of monetary policy in the euro area General documentation on Eurosystem monetary policy instruments and procedures (november, 2008) 5

10 operatiuni de swap valutar şi atragerea de depozite la termen. Operaţiunile de piaţă monetară sunt iniţiate de BCE, derulate de către băncile naţionale membre ale Eurosistemului şi se pot realiza prin licitaţii standard, licitaţii rapide sau proceduri bilaterale. Clasificarea operaţiunilor de piaţă monetară ale Eurosistemului, în funcţie de obiective, periodicitate şi procedurile lor, este următoarea: - operaţiuni principale de refinanţare, care sunt tranzacţii reversibile, periodice, în vederea furnizării de lichiditate, efectuate cu frecvenţa săptămânală şi cu scadenţa, în general, de o săptămână; - operaţiuni de lichiditate, de refinanţare pe termen mai lung, care sunt tranzacţii reversibile în vederea furnizarii de lichiditate, efectuate cu frecvenţa lunară şi având în mod obişnuit scadenţa de trei luni; - operaţiuni de reglaj fin, care se execută ad-hoc, în scopul gestionării lichidităţii pe piaţă şi al orientării ratelor dobânzilor, în special pentru a atenua efectele exercitate asupra ratelor dobânzilor de fluctuaţiile neanticipate ale lichidităţii pe piaţă. Aceste operaţiuni sunt executate, în mod obişnuit de către băncile centrale naţionale, prin licitaţii rapide sau proceduri bilaterale; - operaţiuni structurale, care se realizează prin emiterea de certificate de debit, tranzacţii reversibile şi tranzacţii simple. Aceste operaţiuni sunt executate atunci cand BCE vizează ajustarea poziţiei structurale a Eurosistemului faţă de sectorul financiar, fiind executate prin proceduri bilaterale. b. Facilităţi permanente Facilităţile permanente sunt administrate în mod descentralizat de către băncile centrale naţionale. Scopul facilităţilor permanente este de a furniza şi de a absorbi lichiditate overnight, de a indica orientarea generală a politicii monetare şi de a limita fluctuaţia ratelor dobânzilor overnight de pe piaţă. Aceste facilităţi sunt: - creditarea marginală, utilizată pentru a obţine lichiditate overnight de la băncile centrale naţionale în schimbul unor active eligibile; - facilitatea de depozit, pentru a plasa depozite overnight la băncile centrale naţionale. c. Rezerve minime obligatorii Regimul rezervelor minime obligatorii (RMO) al Eurosistemului se aplică instituţiilor de credit din zona euro şi are drept scop principal stabilizarea ratelor dobânzilor pe piaţa monetară şi crearea unui deficit structural de lichiditate. Rezervele minime obligatorii se determină pentru fiecare instituţie în funcţie de elementele din bilanţul acesteia. RMO sunt remunerate la rata dobânzii aferentă operaţiunilor principale de refinanţare ale Eurosistemului. 6

11 III. Gestionarea crizelor financiare 1 Distribuirea responsabilităţilor de gestionare a crizelor între Eurosistem, băncile centrale naţionale, autorităţile de supraveghere şi ministerele de finanţe depinde de natura crizei (de lichiditate sau de solvabilitate). In cursul unei crize generale de lichiditate, BCE poate contribui la restabilirea funcţionării eficiente a pieţei monetare, prin intermediul operaţiunilor de furnizare de lichiditate, utilizând procedurile operaţionale convenite la nivelul Eurosistemului. Instituţiile de credit care nu dispun de lichidităţi, dar sunt solvabile, pot apela, temporar şi în schimbul unor garanţii corespunzatoare, la facilitatea de urgenţă (emergency liquidity assistance) oferită de Banca Centrală Naţională, doar în cazuri de prevenire sau limitare a efectelor sistemice potenţiale generate de contagiunea între alte instituţii financiare. În cazul unei crize de solvabilitate, principala responsabilitate pentru gestionarea şi soluţionarea crizei îi revine ministerului de finanţe, care decide asupra acordării/neacordării de sprijin financiar şi autorităţilor de supraveghere, care pot lua măsuri excepţionale de supraveghere în vederea stabilizării instituţiei aflate în dificultate sau pot decide lichidarea acesteia. Indiferent de natura unei crize financiare (de lichiditate sau de solvabilitate), Eurosistemul poate susţine eforturile de gestionare a crizelor datorită experienţei şi cunoştinţelor analitice rezultate din monitorizarea stabilităţii financiare şi din evaluarea potenţialelor canale de propagare a dezechilibrelor financiare în cadrul sistemului financiar şi a posibilelor implicaţii asupra stabilităţii acestuia. În ultimul deceniu au fost făcute numeroase demersuri în vederea consolidării acordurilor comunitare privind gestionarea crizelor. Eurosistemul a contribuit în mod activ în trei domenii principale : a. clarificarea cadrului legislativ privind gestionarea crizelor, prin Directiva de adecvare a capitalului (2006) şi Directiva privind conglomeratele financiare (2002); b. extinderea şi îmbunătăţirea permanentă a acordurilor de cooperare voluntară între autorităţi, sub forma acordurilor de cooperare la nivelul UE; c. exerciţii de simulare a crizelor la nivelul UE şi a Eurosistemului în vederea consolidării legislaţiei existente, a acordurilor neoficiale şi a îmbunătăţirii nivelului de pregătire pentru soluţionarea crizelor. În ceea ce priveşte consolidarea acordurilor de stabilitate financiară în zona euro şi în UE, Eurosistemul a contribuit astfel: 1. eurosistemul a întreprins demersuri la nivelul zonei euro în vederea stimulării şi menţinerii stabilităţii sistemului financiar, vizând monitorizarea şi evaluarea stabilităţii financiare, precum şi operaţiunile 1 Monthly Bulletin-10 th anniversary of the ECB (may, 2008) 7

12 de piaţă destinate remedierii şocurilor financiare şi limitării tensiunilor pe piaţa monetară din zona euro; 2. eurosistemul susţine politica autorităţilor naţionale cu privire la monitorizarea şi evaluarea stabilităţii financiare, la reglementarea şi supravegherea financiară şi la gestionarea crizelor. În anul 2005 şi ulterior prelungit şi actualizat în anul 2008, s-a încheiat între BCE şi statele membre UE un acord (la care şi Banca Naţională a României este parte), intitulat Acordul de cooperare între autorităţile de supraveghere financiară, Băncile Centrale şi Ministerele de Finanţe din Uniunea Europeană privind stabilitatea financiară transfrontaliera a cărui obiectiv este de a asigura cooperarea în crizele financiare între Autorităţile de supraveghere financiară, Băncile Centrale şi Ministerele de finanţe prin proceduri adecvate de schimb de informaţii şi evaluări, cu scopul de a facilita îndeplinirea funcţiilor lor şi de a păstra stabilitatea sistemului financiar al Statelor Membre individuale şi a UE ca întreg. Cooperarea între Părţi (prevăzută de Acord) 1, atât în perioade normale, cât şi în crize financiare va implica: - stabilirea unui cadru potrivit de cooperare cu scopul de a pregăti soluţii şi acţiuni comune pentru a gestiona potenţialele efecte negative ale unei crize; - schimbul de informaţii relevante pentru preîntâmpinarea, gestiunea şi rezolvarea unei crize financiare sistemice transfrontaliere, inclusiv evaluări ale situaţiei pentru a permite Părţilor relevante evaluarea promptă a naturii sistemice şi a implicaţiilor transfrontaliere ale crizei, prin folosirea cadrului comun pentru evaluări sistemice; - coordonarea comunicărilor cu publicul; - stabilirea planurilor de urgenţă, inclusiv teste de rezistenţă şi exerciţii de simulare. IV. Provocări ale viitorului Cadrul UE privind stabilitatea financiară se află în continuă dezvoltare şi necesită îmbunătăţiri suplimentare pentru a fi în concordanţă cu progresul înregistrat de integrarea şi inovaţia financiară. Astfel, în viitor Eurosistemul îşi propune să accentueze următoarele abordări: - înţelegerea corespunzătoare a sistemului financiar, care este complex şi supus unor modificări rapide; adoptarea de măsuri care să permită realizarea unei analize mai cuprinzătoare a interdependenţei între sectoarele economice şi financiare, precum şi a progreselor consemnate de tehnicile de simulare a crizelor la nivel macro; 1 Acordul de cooperare intre autoritatile de supraveghere financiara, bancile centrale si ministerele de finante din Uniunea Europeana, privind stabilitatea financiara transfrontaliera Bruxelles, 1 iunie

13 - creşterea rolului activ în asigurarea de consultanţă de calitate cu privire la dezvoltarea acordurilor comunitare de reglementare şi supraveghere financiară; - menţinerea ritmului de îmbunătăţire a acordurilor comunitare privind gestionarea crizelor; - stimularea permanentă a cooperării între băncile centrale şi autorităţile comunitare de supraveghere, mai ales în ceea ce priveşte principalele grupuri financiare care efectuează tranzacţii transfrontaliere. Schimbul rapid de informaţii privind evoluţiile importante şi profilul de risc al acestor grupuri trebuie să aibă continuitate, fiind necesar pentru gestionarea situaţiilor de criza. Criza mondială economico-financiară (în particular, criza financiară din Grecia), poate fi cea mai mare provocare a Uniunii Europene şi tocmai de aceea se poate spune că modelul european, ce presupune implicarea semnificativă a guvernelor în economie, supravegherea atentă a sistemului financiar, industriei şi pieţei muncii, sisteme de asigurări de sănătate şi pensii de stat, înseamnă de fapt creşterea capacităţii de rezistenţă financiară şi economică a ţărilor membre. BIBLIOGRAFIE 1. European Central Bank (March, 2010) - Strengthening macro and microprudential supervision in EU candidates and potential candidates European Central Bank (April, 2009) - The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks Anthony Saunders, Marcia Millon Cornett - Financial Institutions Management (sixth edition) - McGraw-Hill, 2008; 4. Didier Marteau Monnaie, Banque et Marches Financiers Editura Economică, 2008; 5. Dieter Gerdesmeier (2009) - The European Central Bank - Price stability : why is it important for you? 6. European Central Bank (November, 2008) The implementation of monetary policy in the euro area: General documentation on Eurosystem monetary policy instruments and procedures 7. European Central Bank (May, 2008) - Monthly Bulletin - 10 th anniversary of the ECB Acordul de cooperare intre autoritatile de supraveghere financiara, bancile cntrale si ministerele de finante din Uniunea Europeana, privind stabilitatea financiara transfrontaliera (1 iunie 2008) Bruxelles,

14 CREATING THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION IN EUROPE, A REQUISITE FOR MAINTAINING THE EFFICIENCY AND STABILITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL AND THE GROUP FINANCIAL SYSTEM Ph.D. Ion NIŢU Athenaeum University Ph.D. Nataliţa HURDUC Athenaeum University Ph.D. Student Nicoleta HURDUC Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest Abstract: The Eurosystem in an active factor in consolidating the measures which contribute to the financial stability of both the euro area and the European Union, generally, and it has become more and more necessary due to the ever stronger tendency towards integrating and developing the financial markets in Europe. In the field of financial crisis management, through the BCE, the Eurosytem performs annual macro-prudential and structural appraisals of the banking system in the EU and promotes closing voluntary cooperation agreements between the authorities. In order to consolidate financial stability, a constant improvement of the monetary policies is necessary to respond to the challenges arising from the complexity of the EU institutional framework. Key words: the European Union, the Eurosystem, monetary policy, financial stability. JEL classification: E52, E58, G21 I. Introduction 1 I.1. European Integration The process of creating the economic and monetary union in Europe was anticipated by the setting up of the Coal and Steel European Community (CSEC) in 1952, which was made of six European states: Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg and the Netherlands. În 1958, the same six states founded the European Economic Community (ECC) and the European Community of Atomic Energy (ECAE). In time, after consolidating the interstate relationships, there appeared the European Community 1 The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks (April, 2009); 10

15 (EC) and in 1993, after adopting the Maastricht treaty, the European Union was born. Between , the number of the member states of the European Union increased to 27, after the following countries joined in: Denmark, Ireland, the UK (1973), Greece (1981), Portugal and Spain (1986), Austria, Finland and Sweden (1995), the Check Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia (2004), Bulgaria and Romania (2007). I.2. The terms for joining the European Union (EU) The countries that wished to join the EU had to meet some requirements called the "Copenhagen criteria", which stated that the future member states: should have stable institutions to guarantee democracy, the lawful state, the human rights as well as respect and protect the minorities; should have a functional market economy and the capacity to face competitive pressures. I.3. The stages towards creating the Economic and Monetary Union The following stages led to the formation of the European and Monetary Union: 1. the first stage spanned 3 years, between , and was characterized by the definition of the unique European market after knocking down the barriers against the free circulation of the people, goods, capital and services in Europe; 2. the second stage lasted four years, between , and started by setting up the European Monetary Institute and preparing technically to adopt the unique currency, to avoid excessive deficits and to increase the convergence of the economic and monetary policies of the member states (with a view to stabilizing the prices and ensuring the soundness of public finances); 3. the third stage started on January 1st 1999 by irrevocably fixing the exchange rates, transferring the competencies in the field of monetary policies and introducing the euro as a unique currency. By joining the EU, the member states take on the responsibility of adopting the euro in a definite number of years necessary to meet the convergence criteria. I.4. The convergence criteria for the unique currency The Maastricht treaty stipulates that the states wanting to adopt the unique currency must meet certain criteria to demonstrate a high level of "durable convergence", such as: a high level of price stability; solid public finances; a stable exchange rate; a low and stable long-term interest rate; the independence of the state central bank; 11

16 These criteria can only be met by those states that promote economic policies oriented towards stability and present a long history of price stability. II. The Eurosystem and the European System of the National Central Banks 1 The Eurosystem is represented by the Central European Bank and the National Central Banks of the member states that have adopted the euro (16 states at present). The Central Banks European System of the (CBES) is made of the Central European Bank and the national central banks of all the member states of the EU. The Central National Banks of the member states that have not adopted the unique currency have their own monetary policy competencies, according to their national legislation. (The Romanian National Bank is part of the CBES.) II.1. The responsibilities of the Eurosystem The Eurosystem has four main responsibilities: 1. to enforce the monetary policy adopted by the Central European Bank (for instance, the decisions about the rates of the representative interests, the decisions regarding the monetary objectives and the cash flow) 2. to perform currency operations 3. to administer the official resources of the states belonging to the euro area 4. to promote the good functioning of the payment systems (Other responsibilities: financial supervision, elaborating monetary and financial statistics, counseling legislators in its competency area, issuing euro notes.) Special attention should be paid to the fact that the Eurosytem is not allowed to give loans to communitarian institutions or entities in the national public sector, which enhances its independence and protects it from any type of influence from the public authorities. Following the Greek financial crisis (2010), there appeared the idea of setting up a new European organism, a European Monetary Fund, meant to give support to the member states of the Eurosystem that are in need of immediate help (at present the Eurosystem is not allowed to back them up). II.2. The Objectives of the Eurosystem The main objective of the Eurosystem is to maintain price stability. The other objectives (social and economic progress, high employability of the work force, a durable and well-balanced development) can only be attained by maintaining price stability. 1 The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks (April, 2009); 12

17 Inflation and deflation are important economic phenomena that can have a negative influence on economy. Inflation is defined as a general long-term increase in prices and services which leads to money devaluation and thus to a low purchasing power. Deflation is defined as a long-term price decrease. Price stability is characteristic for a period affected by neither inflation nor deflation. It is important to distinguish between the price variations for individual commodities and services and the general price level. Frequent alterations of the individual prices are quite normal in a market economy, even during general price stability. Changing the terms for the demand and supply of the individual goods and services leads to price variations. Inflation is usually measured by the "consumer price indicator". The consumer purchase patterns are analysed to identify the commodities and services usually purchased by the consumers and considered representative for the average consumption in a certain economy. Listing these items under "most purchased" and pondering them according to their importance in the consumer budget leads to what is called "the consumer bare necessities". It must be mentioned that price evolution approached in this way represents only "the average" consumer. To put it differently, inflation measured by means of the indicator is only an approximation of the average economic situation which does not equal the variations of the general price level each consumer faces. II.2.1. The main advantages of price stability 1. Price stability enables the population and companies to identify some commodities price variations and compare them, thus being able to make their own decisions regarding consumption and investments. 2. Price stability allows creditors to give up the "inflation risk premium" to compensate for the inflation risk associated with long-term nominal assets. Taking advantage of the premiums decrease, the debtors can use their resources more efficiently to invest in creating more jobs and developing general economic prosperity. 3. Price stability motivates individuals and companies not to use production resources to protect themselves against inflation or deflation (for instance, adjusting nominal income to price evolution), thus contributing to economic development. 4. Price stability prevents major economic, social and political problems regarding random wealth and income distribution observed during inflation and deflation. For instance, when inflation is high, people putting money into banks are confronted with a decrease of the real value of their savings, while loan takers have 13

18 to reimburse a smaller real amount. There appears thus a relative transfer of goods from bank savers to loan takers. Deflation is characterized by the opposite transfer. 5. Abrupt reevaluation of the assets following an unpredictable variation of inflation can compromise the solidity of a bank balance sheet. For instance, an unpredictable rise in the inflation rate will lead to the decrease of the assets' real value, and the bank can face solvability problems. If price stability is maintained through the monetary policy, inflation or deflation shocks aiming at the nominal assets real value are avoided, financial stability being thus consolidated. By maintaining price stability, central banks contribute to reaching the general economic targets, such as: a higher life standard, a more stable expansion of economic activity and higher employability of the labour force. II. 3. The instruments of monetary policy helping the Eurosystem to reach its targets 1 To reach its targets, the Eurosystem has a set of monetary policy tools, such as: a. operations on the monetary market b. permanent facilities c. minimal obligatory resources a. Operations on the monetary market The operations on the monetary market play an important part in the monetary policy of the Eurosystem and their aim is to guide the interest rates, to set the cash terms on the market and the directions of the monetary policy. There are five types of instruments used for operations on the monetary market: reversible transactions (applicable through repo contracts and collateral loans), simple transactions, issuing debt certificates, currency swap operations and attracting term deposits. The operations on the monetary market are initiated by CBE and unfolded by the national banks of the Eurosystem and they can be achieved by standard auctions, fast auctions or bilateral procedures. The operations on the monetary market of the Eurosystem fall under the following categories, according to their objectives, their timing and procedures, as follows: main refinancing operations, which are reversible and periodical, with a view to getting liquidity, performed on a weekly basis and generally reimbursed in a week; liquidity operations and long-term refinancing, which are reversible, with a view to getting cash, performed on a monthly basis and generally reimbursed in three months; 1 The implementation of monetary policy in the euro area General documentation on Eurosystem monetary policy instruments and procedures (November, 2008) ; 14

19 fine tuning operations, performed on the spot, with a view to getting cash on the market and orienting the interest rates, meant to minimize the effects on the interest rates by the unanticipated fluctuations of the liquidity on the market. These operations are generally performed by the national central banks by fast auctions and bilateral procedures; structural operations, which are performed by issuing debt certificates, reversible and simple transactions. These operations are performed when BCE aims at adjusting the structural position of the Eurosystem according to the financial sector and are solved by bilateral procedures b. Permanent facilities The permanent facilities are administered in a de-centralised way by the national central banks. The aim of the permanent facilities is to provide and absorb overnight liquidity, to set the general direction of the monetary policy and to limit the fluctuation of the overnight interest rates on the market. They are: marginal crediting, used to get overnight liquidity from the national central banks in exchange for eligible assets; facilitating deposits, used to place overnight deposits in the national central banks. c. Minimal obligatory stocks The minimal obligatory stocks of the Eurosystem (MOS) are applicable to the crediting institutions in the euro area and aim at stabilizing the interest rates on the monetary market and creating a structural cash deficit. The minimal obligatory stocks are determined for each institution according to the elements present in their balance sheet. They are remunerated respecting the interest rate corresponding to the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem. III. Managing financial crises 1 The crisis type (liquidity or solvability) determines the distribution of the responsibilities for crisis management among the Eurosystem, the national central banks, the monitoring authorities and the finance ministers. During a general liquidity crisis, the CBE can contribute to a reset of the efficient functioning of the monetary market by means of the operations of getting cash and by using the operational procedures settled by the Eurosystem. The crediting institutions lacking liquidity, though being solvable, can resort temporarily and in exchange for appropriate guarantees to the emergency facility (emergency liquidity emergency) offered by the Central National Bank to prevent and limit the potential systemic effects generated by the contagion among other financial institutions. 1 Monthly Bulletin-10 th anniversary of the ECB (May, 2008) ; 15

20 In the event of a crisis of solvability, the main responsibility for managing and solving the crisis is held by the finance minister, who decides on providing or refusing the financial help, and by the supervision authorities, which can take exceptional measures of supervision to stabilize the institution in need or can decide to liquidate it. Irrespective of the nature of the financial crisis (of liquidity or solvability), the Eurosystem can back up the efforts of managing the crisis because of its expertise and analytical knowledge obtained by monitoring the financial stability and by evaluating the potential channels of the financial unbalance inside the financial system and the possible effects on its stability. During the past ten years, there have been taken measures to consolidate the communitarian agreements regarding crisis management. The Eurosystem has contributed actively to three main domains: 1. the clarification of the legislative framework regarding crisis management, by the Order for capital activation (2006) and the Order concerning financial conglomerates (2002); 2. the permanent spread and improvement of the voluntary cooperation agreements among the authorities as cooperation agreements at the level of the EU; 3. crisis simulation exercises at the level of the EU and the Eurosystem in order to consolidate the existing legislation, the non-official agreements and the improvement of the crisis solving knowledge. As for the consolidation of the financial stability agreements in the euro area and in the EU, the Eurosystem has had the following contribution: 1. the Eurosystem has taken action at the level of the euro area to stimulate and maintain the stability of the financial system, to monitor and evaluate the financial stability as well as the market operations meant to limit the financial shocks and the tensions on the monetary market in the euro area; 2. the Eurosystem backs up the policy of the national authorities regarding the monitoring and evaluation of the financial stability, financial supervision and crisis management. In 2005 there was concluded an agreement between CBE and the EU state members (updated in 2008) called "The cooperation agreement among the financial supervision authorities, the Central Banks and the Finance Ministries in the EU regarding the transnational financial stability "whose objective is to assure cooperation in case of financial crisis among the supervision Authorities, the Central Banks and the Finance Ministries by appropriate procedures of exchanging information and evaluation, with a view to facilitating their functions and to preserving the stability of the financial system of the individual Member States and of the EU as a whole. 16

21 The cooperation between the Parties (stipulated in the Agreement) 1, both in time of crisis and in normal times, will imply: setting an appropriate framework for cooperation in order to prepare common solutions and actions able to manage the potential negative effects of a crisis; exchanging relevant information to prevent, manage and solve a systemic transnational crisis, including evaluations that can enable the relevant Parties to assess promptly the systemic nature and the transnational implications of the crisis by using the common framework for systemic assessment.; coordinating public communication; setting up emergency plans, resilience tests and simulation exercises included. IV. Future challenges The financial stability of the EU is developing and needs extra improvement to be in accordance with the progress of financial innovation and integration. In the future, the Eurosystem is planning to focus on the following approaches: the appropriate understanding of the financial system, which is very complex and prone to fast changes; the adoption of measures that enable a more profound analysis of the interdependence of the economic and financial sectors, as well as the progress of the macro crisis simulation techniques providing quality consultancy regarding the development of the communitarian agreements of financial supervision and regulation; keeping the good pace of the communitarian agreements regarding crisis management; stimulating permanent cooperation between the central banks and the communitarian authorities, especially concerning the main financial groups that perform transnational transactions. The fast information exchange regarding the important evolutions and the risk profile of these groups must be a continuum as it is an essential part in crisis management. The world economic and financial crisis (especially the Greek one) can be the greatest challenge for the EU and that is why the "European model", which supposes the active involvement of governments in economy, in the supervision of the financial system, of the industry and the labour market, of the health insurance and the pensions system, translates in fact the financial and economic ability of the member states to face it. 1 The cooperation agreement among the financial supervision authorities, the central banks and the finance ministers in the EU regarding transnational financial stability Bruxelles, 1 June

22 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. European Central Bank (March, 2010) - Strengthening macro and microprudential supervision in EU candidates and potential candidates European Central Bank (April, 2009) - The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks Anthony Saunders, Marcia Millon Cornett - Financial Institutions Management (sixth edition) McGraw - Hill, 2008; 4. Didier Marteau Monnaie, Banque et Marches Financiers Ed.Economica, 2008; 5. Dieter Gerdesmeier (2009) - The European Central Bank Price stability : why is it important for you? 6. European Central Bank (November, 2008) The implementation of monetary policy in the euro area : General documentation on Eurosystem monetary policy instruments and procedures ; 7. European Central Bank (May, 2008) Monthly Bulletin-10 th anniversary of the ECB The cooperation agreement among the financial supervision authorities, the central banks and the finance ministers in the EU regarding transnational financial stability - Bruxelles, 1 June

23 UN MODEL FUZZY PENTRU ESTIMAREA ECONOMIEI SUBTERANE ÎN ROMÂNIA Lector drd. Corina - Maria ENE Universitatea Hyperion din Bucureşti Lector dr. Nataliţa HURDUC Universitatea Athenaeum din Bucureşti Abstract: Mi-am propus elaborarea unui model bazat pe logica fuzzy care să permită cuantificarea economiei subterane. Am iniţiat acest demers pornind de la modelul MIMIC de estimare a economiei subterane şi de la premisa că poate fi stabilită o asociere pozitivă între o serie de variabile cauzale şi dimensiunea economiei subterane. Modelul utilizează un set de variabile, a căror alegere are la bază atât teoria economică cât şi observaţiile empirice, considerate a fi determinante ale activităţilor de natură subterană. Alegerea acestor variabile poate fi considerată subiectivă, dar setul de variabile de intrare poate fi modificat în funcţie de disponibilitatea datelor necesare calculelor. Oricum, trebuie subliniat faptul că fiecare dintre variabilele abordate îşi aduc aportul, într-o măsură mai mică sau mai mare la dezvoltarea activităţilor economice subterane. Legat de acest aspect, în limbajul logicii fuzzy putem formula, de exemplu, următoarea regulă: dacă rata fiscalităţii este mare, atunci economia subterană este mare etc. Folosind serii statistice pentru o perioadă dată se poate stabili o valoare de bază considerată normală în funcţie de care poate fi calculată magnitudinea tuturor variabilelor. Pentru fiecare serie şi pentru fiecare an valoarea normală reprezintă de fapt o medie a valorilor înregistrate într-un interval de timp precedent. Regulile care pot fi formulate sunt foarte numeroase şi depind de numărul variabilelor modelului şi de valorile care pot fi atribuite acestora. Cuvinte cheie: logică fuzzy, variabile lingvistice, model fuzzy, economie subterană, politică fiscală, modelarea economiei subterane, rata fiscalităţii, informalizarea activităţii economice. Clasificare JEL: C13, C61, D03, D84, E62, H30, O Introducere Politica fiscală, având ca parametru esenţial rata fiscalităţii este considerată instrument principal al oricărui program de stabilizare sau relansare economică. Creşterea ratei fiscalităţii poate limita însă investiţiile private şi încurajează migraţia activităţii economice din sectorul vizibil spre cel invizibil. Intensitatea 19

24 acestui transfer, precum şi evaluarea parametrilor esenţiali, respectiv a factorilor economici sau non-economici care intervin, reprezintă de fapt scopul principal al modelării economiei subterane. Estimarea dimensiunii economiei subterane este dificilă, însă nu imposibilă. Ea reprezintă o adevărată provocare la adresa experţilor în domeniu, care au ajuns la concluzia că orice modificare a dimensiunii economiei subterane este reflectată printr-o modificare a principalilor indicatori macroeconomici. Pornind de la aceste considerente au fost elaborate o serie de modele menite să faciliteze evaluarea cauzelor şi efectelor informalizării activităţii economice, respectiv să estimeze dimensiune şi dinamica economiei subterane. 2. Logica fuzzy şi premisele aplicării sale în economie Universul este alcătuit dintr-o serie de elemente care nu pot fi strict definite sau delimitate. Pornind de la o astfel de observaţie, Lotfi Zadeh (considerat părintele logicii fuzzy) a decis să extindă cele două valori logice definite de perechea {0, 1} la un interval continu [0,1], introducând o tranziţie graduală dinspre fals spre adevărat 1. Mulţimile fuzzy reprezintă de fapt o extensie a conceptului matematic de mulţime. O mulţime este o colecţie de obiecte care au în comun cel puţin o caracteristică. În cazul mulţimilor fuzzy criteriul de apartenenţă la mulţime nu este limitat la o singură condiţie. De exemplu, mulţimea persoanelor active din economie. Un tânăr având vârsta de 30 de ani face parte clar din această mulţime, pe când o persoană în etate este exclusă. Dar cum rămâne cu persoanele având vârsta de 40, 50, 60 şi chiar 70 de ani? Zadeh a introdus în acest sens noţiunea de grad de apartenenţă care permite tranziţia graduală între calitatea de membru al unei mulţimi şi lipsa acestei calităţi. Gradul de apartenenţă al elementelor unei mulţimi la acea mulţime caracterizează o mulţime fuzzy. Cu toate că gradul de apartenenţă este precis, el reprezintă o mărime subiectivă care depinde de un anumit context. Similar variabilelor algebrice, care au ca valori numere, variabilele lingvistice, specifice mulţimilor fuzzy, au ca valori cuvinte sau propoziţii. Mulţimea acestora este denumită generic mulţime a termenilor. Fiecare valoare din mulţimea termenilor este o variabilă fuzzy definită pe o variabilă-bază. Logica binară a apărut odată cu studiul limbajului. Propoziţiile reprezintă, în logică, aserţiuni care pot fi adevărate sau false, însă nu ambele în acelaşi timp. În logica fuzzy însă, o propoziţie poate fi adevărată sau falsă, sau poate avea o valoare de adevăr intermediară, ca de exemplu, aproape adevărată. Teoria mulţimilor fuzzy şi funcţiile fuzzy se aplică pe scară largă în ştiinţa computerelor, în analiza sistemelor, în ingineria electrică şi electronică, precum şi în domenii complementare acestora. Odată cu dezvoltarea sistemelor expert, logica 1 Jantzen Jan Tutorial on Fuzzy Logic, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Automation, Tech. Report no 98-E 868, 19 August 1998, pag

25 fuzzy şi-a făcut loc în viaţa noastră chiar fără a ne da seama (se regăseşte sub forma unor aplicaţii în industria automobilistică, în aparatura casnică etc). Deşi intens folosită în ştiinţele exacte, aplicarea facilităţilor oferite de logica fuzzy în ştiinţele sociale a fost limitată din raţiuni mai mult sau mai puţin psihologice. Este şi cazul ştiinţelor economice. Încercări timide de folosire a teoriei mulţimilor fuzzy în econometrie 1 au apărut abia după mijlocul anilor 90. Este perioada în care s-a încercat fuzzificarea regresiei în contextul modelării nonliniarităţilor şi utilizarea analizei fuzzy pentru a prognoza comportamentul investiţional, având ca bază nivelul ratei dobânzii şi volumul schimburilor care au loc în economie Aspecte metodologice Mi-am propus măsurarea economiei subterane în România folosind o metodă exploatată mult prea puţin în analiza problemelor de natură economică. Este vorba despre tehnica bazată pe mulţimi fuzzy. Metodologia pe care aceasta o presupune este complet diferită de toate celelalte metode utilizate în acelaşi scop. Metoda are la bază aplicarea unor premise inductive de genul dacă valoarea produsului intern brut pe locuitor este mare, atunci economia subterană este mare sau dacă impozitarea este excesivă, evaziunea fiscală este ridicată. Asocierea gradelor de aparteneţă unor astfel de variabile subiective depinde în mare măsură de experienţa celui care aplică metoda. În demersul pe care l-am iniţiat conceptele folosite au fost preluate din modelul MIMIC. Este vorba despre variabilele cauzale prelucrate, respectiv ponderea impozitelor directe în PIB (DIR), ponderea impozitelor indirecte în PIB (INDIR), indicele PIB/locuitor exprimat în USD (PIBL), rata şomajului (SOM) şi indicele percepţiei corupţiei (IPC). Perioada de analiză este Valoarea economiei subterane obţinută ca urmare a aplicării metodei fuzzy este aferentă perioadei , deoarece datele aferente anilor 1990 şi 1991 au fost destinate construirii mediei aritmetice şi armonice, necesare analizei. Alegerea variabilelor prezentate mai sus nu are o motivaţie obiectiv ştiinţifică, ci a fost influenţată de aplicarea modelelor precedente. Am presupus că între acestea şi economia subterană există o relaţie de interdependenţă. În acest sens, am considerat că dacă impozitarea este mare şi dacă rata şomajului este mare şi dacă indicele de percepţie este mare (birocraţie mare) şi dacă PIB pe locuitor este redus, atunci economia subterană este mare. Aceasta este doar una dintre specificaţiile modelului, putându-se creea diferite variante: 1 În acest sens este cunoscută lucrarea de pionierat în domeniu aparţinând lui Lindstrom T., A fuzzy Design of the Willingness to Invest in Sweden, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, 36, 1-17, Draeseke Robert, Giles David E.A. A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy, WP, Department of Economics, University of Victoria Research Grant # , Canada, 2000, pag

26 - dacă impozitarea este mare şi dacă rata şomajului este medie şi dacă PIB pe locuitor este mediu şi dacă indicele percepţiei corupţiei este mic, atunci economia subterană este medie ; - dacă impozitarea este medie şi dacă rata şomajului este mică şi dacă PIB pe locuitor este mare şi dacă indicele percepţiei corupţiei este mic, atunci economia subterană este mică ; - dacă impozitarea este excesivă şi dacă rata şomajului este mare şi dacă PIB pe locuitor este mediu şi dacă indicele percepţiei corupţiei este excesiv, atunci economia subterană este mare etc. Nu numai alegerea variabilelor cauzale este subiectivă, ci şi specificarea limitelor mulţimilor fuzzy. Pragul dincolo de care impozitarea se transformă din mare în excesivă este determinat de opţiunea personală. Ţinând cont de precizările de mai sus, am definit mulţimi fuzzy asociate variabilelor cauzale menţionate. Apoi am asociat valorilor nivele subiective. Următorul pas a fost formularea regulilor de decizie şi stabilirea nivelului subiectiv al economiei subterane folosind operatori fuzzy. Aceste etape au fost parcurse pentru fiecare an al seriei de date analizate. Am început prin a crea o scală care să permită identificarea nivelelor subiective foarte mare, mare, normal, scăzut, foarte scăzut. În acest scop am utilizat procedeul mediei mobile. Pentru că nu am ţinut cont de posibilele cicluri numerice care intervin în seria de date, nivelul final al economiei subterane pentru perioada a fost ulterior ajustat. Pentru fiecare serie şi pentru fiecare an, media perioadei anterioare a fost considerată valoare normală. De exemplu, valoarea normală aferente unei variabile pentru anul 2000 este reprezentat de media valorilor variabilei respective din perioada Nivelele din jurul valorii normale au fost obţinute astfel: - mare : valoarea normală + deviaţia standard ; - foarte mare : valoarea normală + de două ori deviaţia standard ; - scăzut : valoarea normală - deviaţia standard ; - foarte scăzut : valoarea normală - de două ori deviaţia standard. Altfel spus, algoritmul general este de tipul: Foarte scăzut (FS) Media t 2*DEV.ST. Scăzut (S) Media t DEV.ST. Normal Mare (N) (M) Media t Media t + DEV.ST. Foarte mare (FM) Media t + 2*DEV.ST. 22

27 Datele prezentate în tabelul 1 reprezintă calculul nivelurilor aferente variabilei ponderea impozitelor indirecte în PIB (INDIR). Pentru celelalte variabile cauzale, calculele sunt similare.celulele colorate semnifică posibilele niveluri de apartenenţă ale variabilei INDIR. În anul 1992, spre exemplu, valoarea reală a variabilei este 24,99%. Această valoare trebuie încadrată corespunzător nivelului său de apartenenţă: Foarte scăzut (FS) Scăzut (S) Normal (N) Mare (M) Foarte mare (FM) Stabilirea nivelurilor subiective aferente variabilei INDIR Tabelul 1 Foarte scăzut (FS) Scăzut (S) Normal (N) Mare (M) Foarte mare (FM) Seria iniţială (%PIB) Sursa: calcule proprii. Se observă însă că valoarea reală poate fi plasată undeva între nivelul normal şi nivelul mare. Intervine aici unul dintre avantajele logicii fuzzy, respectiv faptul că nu impune alegerea unui singur nivel, ci permite alegerea a două sau mai multe, făcând distincţia între diferite încadrări prin intermediul gradelor de apartenenţă sau a coeficienţilor de certitudine. Stabilirea coeficienţilor de certitudine este un alt element subiectiv inclus în analiză. 23

28 Pentru a asocia valori nivelurilor de apartenenţă am folosit media armonică. Pentru variabila INDIR valorile asociate nivelurilor de apartenenţă sunt: Foarte scăzut (FS) Scăzut (S) Normal (N) Mare (M) Foarte mare (FM) Suma valorilor asociate este egală cu unitatea. Valorile observaţiilor care depăşesc limita superioară sau sunt mai mici decât limita inferioară sunt asimilate limitelor extreme. Valoarea 1 asociată unui nivel reflectă apartenenţa perfectă (completă), iar valoarea 0 indică lipsa de apartenenţă. Următoarea etapă în aplicarea metodei constă în construirea regulilor de producţie. Acestea vor determina nivelurile de apartenenţă individuale pentru fiecare variabilă, iar din combinarea lor va rezulta nivelul economiei subterane. Construirea regulilor de producţie este arbitrară. În tabelul 2 sunt prezentate câteva dintre posibilele reguli de producţie aferente variabilelor cauzale pentru anul Reguli de producţie aferente anului 1992 Tabelul 2 Regula Variabile cauzale ECINF Coeficient DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC de certitudine 1 FM N FS N M R FM N FS N FM ME 1 3 FM N FS M FM R FM N FS M M ME FM N S N M ME FM N S N FM R FM N S M FM R 1 8 FM N S M M ME FM M FS N M ME 1 10 FM M FS N FM ME FM M FS M FM R FM M FS M M R FM M S N M ME FM M S N FM R 1 15 FM M S M FM R 1 16 FM M S M M ME 1 Sursa: calcule proprii. DIR - ponderea impozitelor directe în PIB, INDIR - ponderea impozitelor indirecte în PIB, PIBL - indicele PIB/locuitor exprimat în USD, SOM - rata şomajului, IPC - indicele percepţiei corupţiei; FS foarte scăzut, S scăzut, N normal, M mare, FM foarte mare, E extrem de ridicat, R ridicat, ME mediu, RE redus, FR foarte redus. 24

29 Fiecare regulă am interpretat-o folosind criteriul decizional dacă - atunci, menţionat în paragrafele anterioare. De exemplu, potrivit regulii numărul 1, dacă ponderea impozitelor directe în PIB este foarte mare şi dacă ponderea impozitelor indirecte în PIB este normală (presiune fiscală ridicată) şi dacă PIB pe locuitor este foarte scăzut şi dacă şomajul este în limite normale şi dacă indicele percepţiei corupţiei este mare, atunci economia subterană are un nivel ridicat. Similar am încercat să interpretez cât mai pertinent fiecare dintre regulile expuse. Similar, am creat astfel de reguli pentru fiecare an al perioadei de analiză, însă consider că lipsa expunerii lor în aceste pagini (analiza este foarte vastă) nu afectează înţelegerea şi pertinenţa rezultatele demersului propus. Ultima coloană a tabelului 2 prezintă coeficienţii de certitudine asociaţi economiei subterane, în funcţie de intensitatea regulii aferente. Şi în acest caz intervine intuiţia şi judecata personală. De exemplu, prima regula evidenţiază faptul că economia subterană nu este asociată perfect nivelului ridicat, ci în proporţie de 80%. Ultima etapă a presupus construirea seriei numerice aferente variabilei ECINF (economia subterană). În acest scop am atribuit următoarele valori nivelurilor de apartenenţă ale variabilei mai sus menţionate: - extrem de ridicat: E = 0.5; - ridicat: R = 0.35; - mediu: ME = 0.20; - foarte redus: FR = redus: RE = 0,10; Menţionez încă odată că această alegere a fost arbitrară, iar modificarea valorilor aferente nivelurilor de apartenenţă conduce la modificarea valorilor corespunzătoare economiei subterane. Informaţiile prezentate în tabelul 2 au fost prelucrate cu ajutorul operatorilor fuzzy MIN şi MAX, aşa cum este prezentat în tabelul 3. Stabilirea mărimii economiei subterane (variabila ECINF) Tabelul 3 Regula Variabile cauzale DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC Valoarea minimă a Variabilelor cauzale 1 ECINF 1 FM N FS N M R 2 FM N FS N FM ME 3 FM N FS M FM R 4 FM N FS M M ME 5 FM N S N M ME 6 FM N S N FM R 7 FM N S M FM R 1 Se calculează valoarea funcţiei MIN (DIR, INDIR,PIBL,SOM,IPC). Valoarea astfel obţinută se multiplică cu valoarea coeficientului de certitudine. 25

30 Regula Variabile cauzale DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC Valoarea minimă a Variabilelor cauzale 1 ECINF 8 FM N S M M ME 9 FM M FS N M ME 10 FM M FS N FM ME 11 FM M FS M FM R 12 FM M FS M M R 13 FM M S N M ME 14 FM M S N FM R 15 FM M S M FM R 16 FM M S M M ME Sursa: calcule proprii. 4. Estimarea dimensiunii economiei subterane în România Am determinat valoarea maximă înregistrată de variabila ECINF pe fiecare nivel de apartenenţă (R şi ME, în cazul anului 1992), după cum urmează: - Nivel R: max ( , , , , , , , ) = ; - Nivel ME: max ( , , , , , , , ) = Valorile astfel obţinute au fost multiplicate cu valorile conferite nivelurilor de apartenenţă ale variabilei semnificând economia subterană: Nivel Valoare maximă variabilă Valoare nivel de apartenenţă R ME În aceste condiţii, valoarea procentuală a economiei subterane (ca pondere din PIB) aferentă anului 1992 este: = 0.275, respectiv 27,5% Procedura de lucru prezentată pentru seria de date aferente anului 1992 a fost aplicată şi pentru ceilalţi ani ai perioadei analizate. Rezultatele obţinute sunt prezentate sinoptic în figura 1. 26

31 Figura 1 Evoluţia economiei subterane în România în perioada (model fuzzy) Sursa: calcule proprii Valoarea medie a economiei subterane în România, în perioada analizată este de 33,76%. 5. Concluzii Desigur, nu putem determina care dintre metodele utilizate furnizează soluţia cea mai bună sau care dintre valorile ce caracterizează nivelul economiei subterane prezintă cel mai ridicat grad de certitudine, deoarece prin însăşi natura sa, evoluţia economiei subterane stă sub semnul incertitudinii. Cu toate acestea, consider că tehnica fuzzy prezentată aici poate constitui o alternativă acceptabilă a analizelor bazate pe ecuaţii de regresie. Datorită naturii sale clandestine, ascunse, măsurarea economiei subterane este o chestiune nesigură şi dificilă, totodată. Fragilitatea metodelor, lipsa instrumentelor de măsură, dar şi natura intrinsecă a fenomenului îngreunează atât abordarea cantitativă, cât şi cea calitativă, lăsând loc aproximărilor şi cifrelor incerte. Întrebarea care se impune este dacă aceste cifre sunt în limite considerate normale având în vedere situaţia economică a ţării noastre, sau dacă exced limitele şi periclitează sau aduc prejudicii extrem de grave economiei naţionale. Răspunsul la această întrebare trebuie căutat prin comparaţii internaţionale, cel puţin cu ţări asemănătoare ca structură economică. 27

32 BIBLIOGRAFIE SELECTIVĂ: 1. Draeseke Robert, Giles David E.A. (2000): A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy, WP, Department of Economics, University of Victoria Research Grant # , Canada; 2. Ene Corina Maria, Mitroi Andreea (2008): Two Sides of the MIMIC Model of the Underground Economy, Econophysics, New Economics & Complexity International Conference, ENEC Working Papers Book, May 2008, ISBN ; 3. Feige Edgar L. (1989): The Underground economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion, Cambridge University Press; 4. Feige Edgar L. (1989): The Meaning and Measurement of the Underground Economy, in The Underground Economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion, Edited by Edgar L. Feige, Cambridge University Press, 1989; 5. Feige Edgar L., Katarina Ott (1999): Underground Economies in Transition. Unrecorded Activity, Tax Evasion, Corruption and Organized Crime, Ashgate Publishing Ltd.; 6. Jantzen Jan (1998): Tutorial on Fuzzy Logic, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Automation, Tech. Report no 98-E 868, 19 August; 7. Lindstrom T. (1998): A Fuzzy Design of the Willingness to Invest in Sweden, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, 36, 1-17; 8. Losby J.L., Else J.F., Kingslow M.E., Edgcomb E.L., Malm E.T., Kao V. (2002): Subteran Economy Literature Review, ISED Consulting and Research & The Aspen Institute, Grant from the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, December; 9. *** Institutul Naţional de Statistică Anuare statistice; 10. *** Transparency International Romania National Report on Corruption 2008; 11. *** Transparency International Romania Report on Global Corruption Barometer, Policy and Research Department, December

33 A FUZZY MODEL TO ESTIMATE ROMANIAN UNDERGROUND ECONOMY Ph.D. Student Corina-Maria ENE Hyperion University Bucharest Ph.D. Nataliţa HURDUC Athenaeum University Bucharest Abstract: I propose here a model based on fuzzy logic in order to quantify Romanian underground economy. This approach starts from MIMIC model variables used by many authors in estimating underground economy in all over the world. I also assumed there can be establish a positive relation between a number of causal variables and underground economy. The model uses a set of variables whose choice is based on both economic theory and empirical observations. These variables determinate underground activities. The choice of variables can be considered subjective and the input variables set can be modified depending on the availability of data need. However, it should be noted that each of these variables have a lesser or greater contribution to underground activities development. Fuzzy logic language permits us to formulate rules such as if the taxation rate is high, then the underground economy is large. Using statistical series it can be establish a basic normal value for a given period against which all the variables magnitude can be calculated. The normal value for each series and each year is actually an average of previous time values. Many rules can be formulated, but they depend on number and values of variables considered. Keywords: fuzzy logic, linguistic variables, fuzzy model, underground economy, fiscal policy, underground economy fuzzy modelling, taxation rate, informal economic activities. JEL Classification: C13, C61, D03, D84, E62, H30, O Introduction Taxation rate as a key parameter of fiscal policy is considered the main instrument of any economic stabilization and recovery program. Increasing tax rates may limit private investments and encourage business migration from formal to informal sector. The intensity of this transfer and evaluation of main parameters involved (economic and non-economic factors) represent the main purpose of underground economy modelling. 29

34 Underground economy estimation is difficult but not impossible. It is a real challenge for economic experts who concluded that any change in underground economy size is reflected by a change of main macroeconomic indicators. Based on these considerations there have been developed various models in order to facilitate the evaluation of causes and effects of informal economic activities and to estimate the size and dynamics of underground economy. 2. Preconditions of fuzzy logic application in economics The universe is composed of several elements that can not be strictly defined or delimited. Starting from such observation, Lotfi Zadeh (considered the father of fuzzy logic) has decided to extend the two logical values defined by the pair {0, 1} to a continuous range [0, 1] by using a gradual transition from false to true 1. Fuzzy sets are actually an extension of the mathematical set concept. A mathematical set is a collection of same feature objects. Fuzzy sets use more than one condition to establish a belonging criterion. Let s see the set of active persons from economy. A young man of 30 years old is certainly a part of this set, but an old person is excluded. What about persons of 40, 50, 60 or even 70 years old? Zadeh introduced the concept of membership level that allows a gradual transition from a set to another. The membership degree to a set is the main feature of a fuzzy set. The membership degree is a precisely concept, but represents a subjective indicator depending on a certain context. Linguistic variables are another feature of fuzzy sets. Similar to arithmetical variables which are numerical values, fuzzy variables are specific values as words or sentences. The set of linguistic variables is generally named terms. Each member from a set of terms is a fuzzy variable defined on a basic variable. Binary logic has emerged with language study. Sentences are true or false assertions, but not both simultaneously. However, a fuzzy logic sentence can be true or false, but it may have an intermediate value as almost true, for example. Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy functions are widely applied in computer science, systems analysis, electrical and electronic engineering and other complementary fields. Expert systems development supported fuzzy logic which has already taken place in our lives without even realize (automotive industry applications, domestic electronics etc.). 1 Jantzen Jan Tutorial on Fuzzy Logic, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Automation, Tech. Report no 98-E 868, 19 August 1998, pag

35 Although mostly used in sciences, the convenience of applying fuzzy logic in the social sciences has been limited for more or less psychological reasons. This is the case of economics. Timid attempts to use the theory of fuzzy sets in econometrics 1 occurred only after the mid-90s. This is the period when it has been tried to use fuzzy logic for non-linearity regression modelling and for investment behaviour prediction on a base of interest rate and transactions Methodological aspects I ve proposed to measure Romanian underground economy using a method not frequently exploited by economic problems analysis. I m taking about a technique based on fuzzy sets. It requires a completely different methodology than all the other methods used for the same purpose. The method is based on inductive premises like if GDP per capita is high, then the underground economy is large or if taxation is excessive, tax evasion is high. To confer a membership degree to such as subjective variables depends largely on user experience. This approach uses some concepts taken from MIMIC model. I refer to causal variables processed, namely the share of direct taxation in GDP (DIR), the share of indirect taxation in GDP (INDIR), GDP per capita Index in USD (PIBL), unemployment rate (SOM) and the corruption index (IPC). The analysed period is 1990 to The results of fuzzy approach are represented by underground economy size for periods. Data corresponding to 1991 and 1992 are use to built arithmetic and harmonic means. Choosing the variables listed above are not scientific motivated, but it is influenced by earlier models. I have assumed there are an interdependence relationship between these variables and underground economy. I consider that if taxation is high and unemployment rate is high and corruption index is high and GDP per capita is low then underground economy is certainly large. This is only one of model specification, but we could create a lot of different versions: If taxation is high and unemployment rate has a medium level and corruption index is slow then underground economy is medium size ; 1 First paper in economic fuzzy logic was published by Lindstrom T., A fuzzy Design of the Willingness to Invest in Sweden, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, 36, 1-17, Draeseke Robert, Giles David E.A. A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy, WP, Department of Economics, University of Victoria Research Grant # , Canada, 2000, pag

36 If taxation is medium and unemployment rate is slow and GDP per capita is high and corruption index is low then underground economy is certainly insignificant ; If taxation is excessive and unemployment rate is high and corruption index is excessive and GDP per capita is medium then underground economy is large. The choice of causal variables is subjective, but also subjective is fuzzy sets limits specification. The border between a high taxation and an excessive taxation is determined by personal choice. Given the explanations above, I defined fuzzy sets for each of mentioned causal variables. Then I associated subjective levels with subjective values. The next step was to formulate decision rules and to establish the subjective level of underground economy using fuzzy operators. These steps were followed for each year of the data series. Using moving average process I created a scale and I identified the subjective levels excessive, high, normal, low, very low. The final level of underground economy for period was subsequently adjusted because I did not take account of possible cycles that could occur in numerical data series. The average value of the prior period was considered a normal value for each series. For example, the normal related to a variable for 2000 is the average value of the period from 1990 to Levels around normal value were obtained as follows: - high : normal value + standard deviation ; - excessive : normal value + 2 x standard deviation ; - low : normal value - standard deviation ; - very low : normal value - 2 x standard deviation. In other words, the algorithm is generally as: Very low (FS) Average value 2*ST.DEV. Low (S) Average value ST.DEV. Normal (N) Average value High (M) Average value + ST.DEV. Excessive (FM) Average value + 2*ST.DEV. Table 1 represents levels corresponding to INDIR variable (the share of indirect taxation in GDP). The calculation of levels for other variables is similar. The coloured cells means possible membership levels for variable INDIR. 32

37 In 1992, the real value of this variable is 24.99%. This value must be properly framed on the membership levels: Very low (FS) Low (S) Normal (N) High (M) Excessive (FM) Fixing subjective levels for variable INDIR Table 1 Very low (FS) Low (S) Normal (N) High (M) Excessive (FM) Original series (%GDP) Source: own calculation. Anyone could note that the actual real value (corresponding to 1992) can be placed somewhere between normal and high. What can we do? One of fuzzy logic advantage is that not required choosing a single level, but provides a choice of two or more. I established confidence rates, another subjective element. These membership degrees or confidence rates were built using harmonic mean. 33

38 The assigned values for variable INDIR confidence rates are: Very low Low Normal High Excessive (FS) (S) (N) (M) (FM) The associated values sum equal to 1. Observations values exceeding the upper or lower limit are treated as extreme limits. Perfect membership (complete membership) is reflected by value 1, and 0 indicates lack of belonging. The next step is to formulate the production rules. They will determine the individual membership level for each variable. By combining these levels it will be generated underground economy size. The production rules are arbitrary. Table 2 offer some possible production rules corresponding to causal variables for 1992: Table 2 Possible production rules (1992) Rule number Causal variables ECINF Membership degree DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC (Confidence rate) 1 FM N FS N M R FM N FS N FM ME 1 3 FM N FS M FM R FM N FS M M ME FM N S N M ME FM N S N FM R FM N S M FM R 1 8 FM N S M M ME FM M FS N M ME 1 10 FM M FS N FM ME FM M FS M FM R FM M FS M M R FM M S N M ME FM M S N FM R 1 15 FM M S M FM R 1 16 FM M S M M ME 1 Source: own calculation Note: DIR - the share of direct taxation in GDP, INDIR - the share of indirect taxation in GDP, PIBL - GDP per capita Index in USD, SOM - unemployment rate, IPC - the corruption index; FS very low, S low, N normal, M high, FM excessive, E extremely high, R very high, ME medium. 34

39 The rules interpretation was made by using if-then criterion. According to rule 1, if the share of direct taxation in GDP is excessive and the share of indirect taxation in GDP is normal (general taxation rate is high) and GDP per capita index is very low and unemployment rate is normal and the corruption index is high then the underground economy is very high. The other rules were interpreted in the same manner. There are similar rules for each year analyzed, not exposed in these pages because the analysis is too wide. I think this fact does not affect the understanding and the relevance of the proposed approach results. The last column of Table 2 represents the confidence rates associated to underground economy, according to the intensity of the related rule. The personal intuition and trial are involved. For example, rule 1 suggests that underground economy is not perfectly associated with level very high. It suits this level in a proportion of 80 percents. The last phase was to write the numerical series related to variable ECINF (underground economy). For this reason I assigned the following values (subjective values) to membership levels referred to underground economy: - extremely high: E = 0.5; - very high: R = 0.35; - medium: ME = 0.20; - low: S = 0.10; - very low: FS = I mentioned again that these values choice was arbitrary. Assigning other values to membership levels, the related underground economy values will be changed. Table 3 presents some processed information obtained by using fuzzy operators MIN and MAX: Table 3 Setting underground economy size (ECINF) Rule number Causal variables DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC Minimum causal variables value * ECINF 1 FM N FS N M R 2 FM N FS N FM ME 3 FM N FS M FM R 4 FM N FS M M ME 5 FM N S N M ME 6 FM N S N FM R 7 FM N S M FM R 35

40 Rule number Causal variables DIR INDIR PIBL SOM IPC Minimum causal variables value * ECINF 8 FM N S M M ME 9 FM M FS N M ME 10 FM M FS N FM ME 11 FM M FS M FM R 12 FM M FS M M R 13 FM M S N M ME 14 FM M S N FM R 15 FM M S M FM R 16 FM M S M M ME Source: own calculation * represents MIN function values multiplied with confidence rate. 4. Estimating Romanian underground economy I calculated the maximum value recorded by variable ECINF (for the year 1992) on each membership level, as follows: - Level R (very high): max ( , , , , , , , ) = ; - Level ME (medium): max ( , , , , , , , ) = These maximal values were multiplied with confidence rates values corresponding to underground economy. Level Maximal value Membership level value R ME Finally, I determined the size of underground economy corresponding to year 1992 (as a share of GDP): = In 1992 romanian underground economy represented 27.5% from official GDP. 36

41 This working procedure has been applied to all years of the analyzed period. Summary results are presented in Figure 1. 27, ,2 33,43 32,5 33,43 31, ,8 37,5 37, , ,61 35, Figure 1 Romanian underground economy evolution using a fuzzy model Source: own calculations 33.76% is the average value of underground economy in Romania in the period review. 5. Conclusions No one can sustain that a method or a model is better than other. No one can determine which methods provide the best solution, the best value or the highest confidence degree for underground economy size estimation. Why not? The nature of underground economy stays uncertain itself. However, I believe that fuzzy technique presented here may be an acceptable alternative to regression equations analysis. Due to its clandestine or hidden nature, underground economy measurement is an uncertain and difficult matter. The fragility of methods, lack of measuring instruments and also the inherent of phenomenon nature make it difficult to use both quantitative and qualitative analysis, giving only approximations and uncertain figures. The question is if these values may be consider being normal for our country economy or exceeding the limits and endanger very seriously our national economy. The answer is given by international comparisons with similar economic structure countries. 37

42 SELECTIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY: 1. Draeseke Robert, Giles David E.A. (2000): A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy, WP, Department of Economics, University of Victoria Research Grant # , Canada; 2. Ene Corina Maria, Mitroi Andreea (2008): Two Sides of the MIMIC Model of the Underground Economy, Econophysics, New Economics & Complexity International Conference, ENEC Working Papers Book, May 2008, ISBN , ; 3. Feige Edgar L. (1989): The Underground economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion, Cambridge University Press; 4. Feige Edgar L. (1989): The Meaning and Measurement of the Underground Economy, in The Underground Economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion, Edited by Edgar L. Feige, Cambridge University Press, 1989; 5. Feige Edgar L., Katarina Ott (1999): Underground Economies in Transition. Unrecorded Activity, Tax Evasion, Corruption and Organized Crime, Ashgate Publishing Ltd.; 6. Jantzen Jan (1998): Tutorial on Fuzzy Logic, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Automation, Tech. Report no 98-E 868, 19 August; 7. Lindstrom T. (1998): A Fuzzy Design of the Willingness to Invest in Sweden, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 36, 1-17; 8. Losby J.L., Else J.F., Kingslow M.E., Edgcomb E.L., Malm E.T., Kao V. (2002): Subteran Economy Literature Review, ISED Consulting and Research & The Aspen Institute, Grant from the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, December; 9. *** Institutul Naţional de Statistică Anuare statistice; 10. *** Transparency International Romania National Report on Corruption 2008; 11. *** Transparency International Romania Report on Global Corruption Barometer, Policy and Research Department, December

43 RISCUL DE MEDIU IN PODGORIILE ROMÂNEŞTI Prof.univ.dr.Mariana BRAN Prof.univ.dr.Dan BOBOC Lector dr.raluca Andreea ION Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti Conf.univ.dr. Bebe NEGOESCU Universitatea Athenaeum din Bucureşti Abstract Activitatea agricolă, spre deosebire de celelalte domenii economice, este însoţită de un grad ridicat de risc şi incertitudine, determinat, în principal, de factorii de mediu. Influenţa condiţiilor meteorologice asupra proceselor de creştere şi dezvoltare a culturilor de câmp şi vitipomicole este studiată de agrometeorologie, ştiinţa care studiază şi determină necesarul biotopului agricol pentru atingerea productivităţii biologice optime. Astfel, agrometeorologia implică gestionarea şi conservarea resurselor agroclimatice în dezvoltarea procesului de producţie agricolă (aprofundarea relaţiei vreme-recoltă). Agricultura, ca utilizator al informaţiilor agrometeorologice, valorifică combinarea acestora cu informaţiile specializate (agricole, tehnologice, economice etc.) în scopul prevenirii şi diminuării riscului meteorologic asupra speciilor vegetale, dar şi în vederea stabilirii strategiilor de dezvoltare durabilă. În vederea preîntâmpinării şi diminuării impactului negativ asupra producţiei viticole, este necesar a se prevede şi monitoriza fenomenele meteorologice periculoase, pentru realizarea sistemului decizional de protecţie şi asigurare a producţiei vitivinicole. Cuvinte cheie: riscuri naturale, trasabilitate, monitorizare agrometeorologică, managementul riscului. Clasificare Jel: Q10, Q13, Q51, Q56. Introducere Riscul şi managementul lui abordează problematici şi terminologii de identificare, măsurare şi tratament al expunerilor la pierderi accidentale potenţiale. Chiar dacă nu sunt dramatice, mai multe evenimente negative de mică amploare acumulate pot ameninţa, în cazul nostru, supravieţuirea afacerii vitivinicole, prin scăderea producţiei de struguri sub nivelul acceptat, întrerupând operaţiunile curente sau încetinind creşterea economică. 39

44 Riscul, aflat la cumpăna certitudine / incertitudine, este, teoretic, fenomenul ce provine din circumstanţe pentru care decidentul este în măsură să identifice evenimente posibile, şi chiar probabilitatea materializării acestora, însă, fără a fi în măsură să precizeze cu exactitate care dintre aceste evenimente se va produce.. Conceptul de risc se foloseşte pentru a descrie situaţii sau evenimente cu rezultate sau consecinte incerte. Analiza riscurilor, în mod curent, porneşte de la clasificarea pe domenii - riscuri naturale, riscuri politice, riscuri sociale, riscuri juridice, riscuri tehnologice şi riscuri economice. Riscurile naturale, produse de factorii naturali, afectează în mod direct producţia de struguri şi indirect producţia de vin. În urma pagubelor pe care le produc diverse fenomene extreme (seceta prelungită, inundaţiile, grindina, temperaturile extreme) asupra principalei surse de aprovizionare, respectiv producţia viticolă, apare o propagare a efectelor negative în avalul canalului de distribuţie a acestora. Înregistrarea unei producţii viticole mai mici decât cea previzionată poate avea ca efect scăderea încasărilor din industria vinului, de exemplu, chiar dacă preţurile sunt majorate. În România, riscurile naturale asupra producţiei agricole sunt foarte mari datorită succesiunii perioadelor de secetă cu cele de inundaţii. Alti factori de risc natural ce pot afecta sectorul vitivinicol sunt cei biologici, respectiv insecte, viruşi, bacterii etc., ce pot afecta produsul în orice stadiu al prelucrării sale. În sectorul viticol, riscurile tehnologice sunt generate, în primul rând, de modificările accidentale ale condiţiilor de mediu. Materialul şi metoda de lucru Factorii de mediu - temperaturi prea ridicate sau prea reduse, vânturi puternice, umiditate excesivă sau prea redusă, ploi abundente, secetă, îngheţuri timpurii de primăvară sau brume târzii de toamnă etc. - cu acţiune negativă asupra culturilor agricole şi, implicit, asupra plantaţiilor viticole, reprezintă permanent un risc asupra producţiei vitivinicole, cu trimitere la posibilitatea şi probabilitatea unor variaţii ale rezultatelor faţă de valorile sau nivelurile estimate iniţial. Condiţiile climatice şi pedologice, hotărâtoare alegerii terenului pentru înfiinţarea unei plantaţii viticole, se referă la suma gradelor de temperatură (peste 2500 o C, respectiv 1400 o C temperatură utilă), temperatura minimă absolută (- 35 o C), durata de strălucire a soarelui (peste 2500 ore în perioada de vegetaţie), precipitaţiile anuale favorabile ( mm, d.c mm în perioada de vegetaţie). Aceste informaţii favorabile sunt completate de alegerea terenului, care trebuie să fie ferit de grindină, de îngheţuri târzii de primăvară şi timpurii de toamnă. Terenurile cu expoziţie sudică, sud-estică sau sud-vestică sunt preferate, 40

45 deoarece dispun de mai multă radiaţie şi lumină solară. De asemenea, se preferă terenurile cu conţinut moderat de calciu, panta de cel mult 24% şi altitudinea de m, cu apa freatică la adâncimi mai mari de 2-3 m. Iniţial, amplasarea şi amenajarea unei plantaţii viticole se realizează după un studiu prealabil al condiţiilor de mediu în concordanţă cu pretabilitatea speciei faţă de acestea. Aspectul este de maximă importanţă, având repercusiuni asupra produsului şi producţiei, reprezentând, totodată, şi punctul de plecare în realizarea trasabilităţii. Într-un studiu de specialitate realizat, pe bază de chestionar şi folosind scala diferenţială semantică, în zona Dobrogei, a rezultat că factorii care afectează cel mai puternic producţia de struguri sunt ploile abundente şi seceta (tabelul 1). Aprecierea impactului negativ al factorilor restrictivi de mediu asupra producţiei de struguri Tabelul 1 Factorul de mediu Scala diferenţială semantică (1-5) * Secetă 3,8 Ploi abundente 3,6 Îngheţuri 3,4 Vânturi puternice 2,2 * Notă: 1- f. puţin puternic; 2 puţin puternic; 3 moderat; 4 puternic; 5 f. puternic Sursa: Boboc D., Manole V. şi Raluca Andreea Ion, Cercetări privind riscul datorat condiţiilor de mediu în plantaţiile viticole din România. Studiu de caz zona viticolă a Dobrogei În acelaşi perimetru, dar folosind scala de ordonare, aprecierea sensibilităţii viţei de vie la condiţiile restrictive de mediu a fost cea din tabelul 2, rezultând că viţa de vie este sensibilă la secetă şi temperaturi joase. Sensibilitatea vitei de vie la conditiile meteorologice din Dobrogea Factorul de mediu Scala de ordonare: sensibil, moderat, suportabil Secetă 2,4 Ploi abundente 2,2 Băltire 1,2 Vânturi puternice 2 Temperaturi ridicate 1,6 Temperaturi joase 2,4 Tabelul 2 Sursa: Boboc D., Manole V. şi Raluca Andreea Ion, Cercetări privind riscul datorat condiţiilor de mediu în plantaţiile viticole din România. Studiu de caz zona viticolă a Dobrogei 41

46 Studiul, care poate fi extins şi la nivelul altor regiuni viticole, facilitează formarea imaginii privind acţiunea factorilor climatici asupra culturii viţei de vie, la nivel naţional. Conceptul de risc, după Borter, 1999, este definit prin componentele sale (fig. 1). Analiza riscului reprezintă demersul sistematic de caracterizare şi, dacă este posibil, de cuantificare a unui risc, din perspectiva probabilităţii de producere şi a dimensionalităţii consecintelor sale. Evaluarea riscului este etapa de decizie a semnificaţiei riscurilor acceptabile, pe baza comparării avantajelor şi dezavantajelor implicate de un posibil eveniment. Managementul riscului este etapa de implementare a măsurilor şi metodelor necesare atingerii nivelului de siguranţă propus, în contextul adaptării la transformările de mediu. Ce se poate întâmpla?! Ce reprezintă siguranţă?! Ce are voie să se întâmple?! analiza riscului Ce trebuie făcut?! evaluarea riscului MANAGEMENTUL RISCULUI Fig. 1 - Structura conceptului de risc (prelucrare după Borter, 1999) Riscurile pot să fie asigurabile, pentru că se pot calcula 1 : risc = p ei x a p/c în care: p ei = probabilitatea producerii evenimentului i, a p/c = amplitudinea pierderii sau câstigului asociat afacerii, în cazul producerii evenimentului i. 1 Popescu Nela, Noi tendinte în analiza riscului afacerilor comerciale, Teză de doctorat,

47 Spre deosebire de risc, incertitudinea apare atunci când cel puţin una din acţiunile agentului economic are asociate mai multe consecinţe posibile, principalul motiv fiind acela că producătorul agricol nu poate controla perfect mediul în care îşi desfăşoară activitatea. Modelarea incertitudinii este un demers ştiinţific care face apel la cunoştinţe de teoria probabilităţilor. Oricărui eveniment incert i se asociază o probabilitate de apariţie. Din punct de vedere teoretic, se admite faptul că fiecare agent are propria sa lege de probabilitate individuală 1. Astfel, se poate nota cu x ( x x,... ) = 1, 2 x n vectorul de câştiguri monetare x i pentru fiecare stare a naturii I = 1, 2, 3,..., n; vectorul x se numeşte suportul n = 1, 2 p n, p i i= 1 distribuţiei. Sau, cu p ( p p,..., ) = 1, se poate nota vectorul de probabilităţi. Specialiştii fac distincţie între noţiunea de risc şi cea de incertitudine. Knight consideră că riscul acoperă cazul în care distribuţiile de probabilitate ale perspectivelor aleatoare pe care agentul trebuie să le compare sunt cunoscute acestuia. În cazul incertitudinii, dimpotrivă, distribuţiile de probabilitate ale acestor perspective sunt necunoscute decidentului. Cele mai cunoscute criterii de apreciere a perspectivelor aleatoare sunt: criteriul speraţei matematice a câştigului, criteriul speranţă-varianţă şi criteriul speranţei de utilitate. Dintre acestea, criteriul speraţei matematice a câştigului este cel mai simplu. În acest model, se consideră că toate distribuţiile de probabilitate relative la consecinţele monetare pot fi caracterizate printr-un singur număr: n speraţa matematică a câştigului (media). Astfel, dacă a = [ x; p], x, p R este o loterie, speranţa matematică a câştigului este numărul E( a) = n i= 1 p i x i. Producătorul agricol, aflat în ipostaza de a alege între două situaţii (loterii!?), compară speranţele matematice ale acestora şi alege pe cea care oferă câştigul cel mai mare, deci optează pentru criteriul maximizării speranţei matematice (criteriul E) 2. 1 Gheorghiţă, M., Modelarea şi simularea proceselor economice, Editura ASE, Bucureşti, Gheorghiţă, M., Modelarea şi simularea proceselor economice, Editura ASE, Bucureşti,

48 Literatura de specialitate dezbate şi problema gradului aversiunii la risc, existând mai multe modele de măsurare a acestuia (ex. modelul Arrow-Pratt). În acest sens, agentul economic se poate exprima prin următoarele comportamente: aversiune la risc (riscofob), neutralitate la risc şi plăcere la risc (riscofil). Pentru prevenirea riscurilor de neobţinere a producţiei vitivinicole, producătorii trebuie să-şi asigure recoltele prin sistemul asigurărilor agricole. Rezultate şi discuţii Monitoringul agrometeorologic, ca soluţie a prevenirii riscurilor. Monitorizarea factorilor climatici intră în atribuţiile Administraţiei Naţionale de Meteorologie. Datele şi informaţiile necesare monitorizării se referă la caracteristici meteorologice şi agrometeorologice, particularizate pe regiuni viticole de referinţă, validate şi gestionate pe baza programelor informaţionale 1. Astfel, se recurge la monitorizarea zilnică a parametrilor agrometeorologici în vederea estimării gradului de favorabilitate agroclimatică pentru principalele culturi agricole din România. Se evidenţiază intervalele şi zonele agricole afectate de fenomene meteorologice extreme, precum şi impactul acestora asupra proceselor de creştere şi dezvoltare a culturilor de câmp şi vitipomicole. Informaţiile specializate se redau prin tabele sintetizatoare, grafice şi hărţi spaţiale reprezentative la nivelul întregului teritoriu agricol al ţării, fiind utilizate ca material de analiză şi interpretare în elaborarea buletinelor agrometeorologice (diagnoze şi prognoze săptămânale, lunare, sezonale). Modul de selectare, extragere şi procesare automată a datelor meteorologice (temperaturi minime şi maxime din aer, precipitaţii totale şi efective, umezeală relativă medie a aerului, durata de strălucire a soarelui şi viteza medie a vântului) se realizează din baza de date sinoptice (din tabela ORACLE cu date sinoptice), utilizând aplicaţia AGRO-SYNOP. Prelucrarea datelor agrometeorologice implică: - calculul unor indicatori agrometeorologici termici şi hidrici, specifici culturilor viticole, pe intervale caracteristice pentru anul calendaristic; - calculul evapotranspiraţiei potenţiale pe parcursul sezonului de vegetaţie, utilizand metoda Penman-Montheith inclusă în modelul CropWat; - detalierea spaţială a rezervelor de umiditate accesibilă plantelor, ce permit evaluarea curentă a gradului de aprovizionare cu apă al solurilor corelat cu cerinţele viţei de vie pe parcursul fazelor de creştere şi dezvoltare. 1 Administraţia Naţională de Meteorologie 44

49 Toate aceste informaţii identifică în timp util zonele agricole cele mai vulnerabile la producerea fenomenelor meteorologice nefavorabile, asigurându-se astfel informarea operativă şi asistarea fundamentată ştiinţific a deciziei manageriale privind apariţia şi extinderea situaţiilor de risc în domeniu. Programul agrometeorologic operaţional de analiză a dinamicii parametrilor meteorologici cu impact asupra viticulturii permite elaborarea de recomandări privind alegerea terenurilor de amplasare a viţei de vie şi folosirea de tehnologii şi practici alternative, în scopul prevenirii şi diminuării impactului fenomenelor meteorologice în viticultură. Concluzii România este o ţară viticolă prin tradiţie: produce struguri, îi procesează, dar se remarcă şi din punctul de vedere al consumului. Amplasarea şi amenajarea unei plantaţii viticole se realizează în concordanţă cu pretabilitatea speciei faţă de factorii de mediu, aspectul este de maximă importanţă învederea realizării trasabilităţii produsului. Agricultura şi, implicit, viticultura, este însoţită de un grad ridicat de risc, în principal de cel datorat factorilor climatici. Este necesar a se prevede şi monitoriza fenomenele meteorologice periculoase, pentru realizarea sistemului decizional de protecţie şi asigurare a producţiei vitivinicole. Factorii de mediu cu acţiune negativă intensă asupra producţiei de struguri sunt seceta şi ploile abundente, dar, dacă versantul nu este amenajat, există şi riscul erodării. Pentru prevenirea riscurilor de neobţinere a producţiei vitivinicole, producătorii trebuie să-şi asigure recoltele prin sistemul asigurărilor agricole. Prin particularităţile morfo-fiziologice, viţa de vie se poate aproviziona cu apă de la mare adâncime şi poate valorifica arealele nisipoase din zonele afectate de deşertificare. Cultura viţei de vie implică costuri de producţie reduse, potenţial pentru export (calitatea ridicată a produsului şi sortimentul variat îl face competitiv pe piaţa externă), generarea de venituri suplimentare sau economii de cheltuieli pentru cei ce nu au ca principală activitate agricultura etc. 45

50 BIBLIOGRAFIE 1. Gheorghiţă, M., Modelarea şi simularea proceselor economice, Editura ASE, Bucureşti, 2002; 2. Manole, V., Boboc, D., Istudor, N., Ion, Raluca, Andreea, Filiere agroalimentare, Editura ASE, Popescu, Nela, Noi tendinte în analiza riscului afacerilor comerciale, Teză de doctorat, * * * Administraţia Naţională de Meteorologie, 5. * * * Ofertă complexă CDI suport pentru Managementul strategic al refacerii patrimoniului şi creşterii competitivităţii economice a sectorului viticol din România în contextul Politicii Agricole Comune (2003) a Uniunii Europene, CEEX M I COMPLEXE, contract nr. 97/ * * * Proiectul Proiectarea sistemului informaţional de monitorizare a trasabilităţii produselor pe filiera vitivinicolă din România, finanţat prin proiectul MAKIS, Acord de Grant /

51 ENVIRONMENTAL RISK IN ROMANIAN VINEYARDS Ph.D.Mariana BRAN Ph.D.Dan BOBOC Lecturer Raluca Andreea ION Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest Ph.D.Bebe NEGOESCU Athenaeum University Bucharest Abstract: Agricultural activity, unlike other economic areas, is accompanied by a high degree of risk and uncertainty, caused mainly by environmental factors. The influence of weather on growth and developing processes of crops, orchards and vineyards is the science which studies and determines agricultural biotope necessary to achieve optimal biological productivity. Thus, agro meteorology involves agro-climatic resources management and conservation in developing agricultural production process (weather - deepening relationship). Agriculture, as user of agro meteorological information, recover their combination with specialized information (agricultural, technological, economic, etc.) for preventing and minimizing climatic risk upon plant species, but also for establishing sustainable development strategies. In order to prevent and reduce the negative impact on wine production, it is necessary to monitor weather forecasts and hazardous to achieve decision-making system of protection and assurance wine production. Keywords: natural hazards, traceability, agro meteorological monitoring, risk management. JEL Classification: Q10, Q13, Q51, Q56. INTRODUCTION The risk and its management approach issues and terminologies of identification, measurement and treatment of exposure to potential losses. Although they are not dramatic, many negative events of not such big amplitude that have been accumulated, can threaten, in this case, the survival of wine business by reducing the grape production under the agreed standard, breaking in the current operations or slowing down the economical development. The risk, found out at the limit between certainty and uncertainty, is, in theory, the phenomenon that derives from circumstances for which the manager is able to identify possible events and even the probability of their materialization, but, without being able to specify unequivocally which one of these events is going to happen. 47

52 The risk concept is used to describe situations and events with uncertain results. The analysis of a risk usually begins with classifying the domain natural risks, political risks, social risks, judicial risks, technological risks and economical risks. The natural risk, produced by natural agents, affects directly the grape production and indirectly the wine production. Because of the damages that certain extreme agents produce (the prolonged drought, flooding, hailstone, extreme temperatures) on the foremost source of supply, respectively the vine production, there appears a conduction of the negative events downstream of their distribution channel. The registration of grape production lower than expected may cause the decrease of the revenues in the wine industry, for example, even if the price is increased. In Romania, the natural risks on the agricultural production are very large because of the succession between the drought period and the overflow period. Other agents of natural risks that may affect the vine and wine sector are the biological ones, like insects, viruses and bacteria etc., affecting the product whatever its processing stage might be. In the vine sector, the technological risks are generated, first of all, by the accidental modifications of the environmental conditions. Material and method The environmental agents - too high or too low temperatures, strong winds, excessive or the shortened humidity, abundant rains, drought, the early frost of spring or late frost of autumn etc. - with negative action on the agricultural crops and, default, on the vine plantations, represent a permanent risk on the vine production referring to the possibilities and probabilities of some variations of the results compared to the values or levels evaluated initially. The climatic and soil conditions, decisive for choosing a place to establish a vine plantation, refer to the sum of the degrees (over 2500 o C 1400 o C, useful temperature), the absolute minimal temperature (-35 o C), the length of the sun shine, (over 2500 hours in the vegetation period), favourable annual precipitation ( mm., of which mm in the vegetation period). This favourable information is completed by the selection of the field that has to be saved from hailstone, late autumn frosts and early spring frosts. The fields with southern, south-eastern, or south-western exposure are the recommended ones because they dispose of more radiation and solar light. Also, the ideal fields are those with moderate calcium content, slope with at most 24% and m altitude with the underground water at depths more than 2-3 m. 48

53 Initially, the deployment and development of a vine plantation is carried out after a prior study of the environmental conditions congruent with the requirements of the species towards these. This aspect is of great importance, having repercussions on the product and the production, representing, therewith, the start of the traceability realization. In a specialized study, based on a questionnaire and using the differential semantic scale, in Dobrogea area, it turned out that the agents that affect the most the grape production are abundant rains and drought (table 1). The estimation of the negative impact of the restrictive environmental agents on the grape production Table 1 The environmental agent The differential semantic scale (1-5) * Drought 3,8 Abundant rains 3,6 Frosts 3,4 Strong winds 2,2 * Mark: 1- very low strength; 2 low strength; 3 average; 4 strength 5 very strength Source: Boboc D., Manole V. and Raluca Andreea Ion, Researches of risks caused by environmental conditions upon vine plantation in Romania. Case study vine area of Dobrogea In the same context, but using the ranking scale, the estimation of vine sensitivity to environmental restrictive conditions is presented in table 2. It results that vine is sensitive to drought and low temperatures. Vine sensitivity to weather conditions in Dobrogea Table 2 The environmental agent Ranking scale: Sensitive, average, tolerable Drought 2,4 Abundant rains 2,2 Abundant water on soil 1,2 Strong winds 2 High temperatures 1,6 Low temperatures 2,4 Source: Boboc D., Manole V. and Raluca Andreea Ion, Researches of risks caused by environmental conditions upon vine plantation in Romania. Case study vine area of Dobrogea. 49

54 The study that can be extended also at the level of other vine regions facilitates the formation of an overview regarding the action of the climatic agents on the grapevine culture at a macroeconomic level. The risk concept, by Borter, 1999, is defined through its components (fig. 1). The Analysis of the Risk represents its systematic characterization and, if possible, the quantification of a risk from the perspective of its happening probability and the perspective in terms of dimension of its consequences. The evaluation of the risk is the point of the significance of the agreed risks based on the comparison between the advantages and disadvantages involved by a possible event. The risk management is the implementation stage of the measures and methods necessary to the achievement of the proposed safety level, in the context of the adaptation to the environmental transformations. Fig. 1 Structure of the risk concept (adaptation after Borter, 1999) Risks can be insurable because they can be calculated 1 : risk = p ei x a p/c where: p ei = probability of the production of the i event a p/c = amplitude of the loss or the gaining associated with business, in the case of the production of the i event. 1 Popescu Nela, Noi tendinte în analiza riscului afacerilor comerciale, Teză de doctorat,

55 Unlike the risk, the uncertainty appears when at least one of the actions of the economical agent has associated more possible consequences, the main reason being the one that the agricultural producer cannot control perfectly the environment where he deploys his activity. Modelling uncertainty is a scientific demarche that involves knowledge about the theory of the probabilities. Every uncertain event is associated with a probability of apparition. Theoretically, it is conceded that every agent has its own low of individual probability. = 1, 2 x n the monetary gaining vector x i for each estate of the nature I = 1, 2, 3,..., n; the x vector is the distribution support. So, we mark with x ( x x,... ) n = 1, 2 p n, p i i= 1 Or: p ( p p,..., ) = 1 is used to note the probabilities vector. Specialists make a difference between the risk and the uncertainty notions. Knight believes that the risk covers the uncertainty notion when the probability distribution of the aleatory perspective that the agent must compare is known by him. In the case of uncertainty, contrariwise, the probability distribution of these perspectives is unknown to the agent. The most known appreciation criterions of aleatory perspectives are: criterion of mathematical hope of winning, criterion hope-variation and criterion of utility hope. Among these, criterion of mathematical hope of winning is the most simple. In this model, all the probability distribution relative to the financial consequences may be characterized by a single number: mathematical hope of n winning (the average). If a = [ x; p], x, p R represents a lottery, mathematical hope of winning is the number E( a) = n i= 1 p i x i. The agricultural producer has to choose between two situations (lotteries!?), so he has to compare their mathematical hope and chooses the one that offers the bigger gain, so he chooses the mathematical criteria of hope maximization (E criteria) 1. The literature also debates the issue of the point of aversion at risk; there are many models to measure it (ex. The Arrow-Pratt Model). To this end, the economical agent can express itself through behaviours like: aversion to risks (riskophobe), neutrality to risk, and enjoying of risk (riskophile). In order to forewarn the risks of the unprocurement of the grape production, the producer must ensure their harvest through the agricultural assurance system. 1 Gheorghiţă, M., Modelarea şi simularea proceselor economice, Editura ASE, Bucureşti,

56 Results and discussions The agro meteorological monitoring, as solution to forewarn the risks. The monitoring of the climatic agents is part of the National Weather Administration attributions. The data and information used for monitoring refer to agro meteorological and weather characteristics costumed in vine regions validated and administrated according to informational programs 1. This way, it is referred to daily monitoring of agro meteorological parameters to estimate the fortunately agro climatic point for the main agricultural cultures in Romania. It is marked out the intervals and agricultural regions affected by extreme weather phenomenon, and also their impact on the growth and development process of crops and vine cultures. The specialised information is reproduced using tables that synthesize graphics and representative spatial maps, at the whole agricultural territory of the country level, being used as analysis and interpretation material to frame a weather report (weekly, monthly and seasonal diagnosis and prognosis). The way of selection, drawing out and automatic procession of weather data (the minimal and the utmost temperatures in the air, total and actual precipitations, humidity relative average, the duration of sun shine and the average speed of the wind) are realized using the synoptic data base (from the ORACLE table with synoptic data), using the AGRO-SYNOP application. The adaptation of agro meteorological data involves: - the calculation of some agro meteorological indicators, particular to vine cultures, on characteristic intervals for the calendar year; - the calculation of potential vapour-perspiration along the vegetation period, using the Penman-Montheith method encompassed in the CropWat model; - the spatial detailing of humidity relays approachable to the plants, that allow the current evaluation of the ground water supply point correlated to the requirements of the vine along the growth and development phase. All this information identifies in due time the most vulnerable agricultural areas at unfavourable meteorological phenomenon, assuring the operative information and the scientific underpinning of the managerial decision regarding the emergence and the extending of risks situations in the domain. 1 Administraţia Naţională de Meteorologie 52

57 The operational analysis agro meteorological program of meteorological parametric dynamic with impact on the vine culture admits the elaboration of recommendations regarding the field selection to locate the grapevine and the use of alternative technologies and practices, with the aim of forewarn and decrease the impact of meteorological phenomenon in vine culture. Conclusions Romania is a vine culture country, a fact marked out through tradition: it produces grapes, it processes them, but it also comes to the fore because of the consumption. The location and development of a vine culture plantation are realized according to the suitability of the species towards the environmental agents; the aspect has a major importance to realize the traceability of the product. Agriculture, and, default, vine culture, is attended by a high risk point, mainly attended by a risk caused by climatic agents. It is necessary to forecast and to monitor the dangerous meteorological phenomenon, to realize the decisional protection system and to assure the vine culture. The environmental agents with intense negative action against the grape production are the drought and abundant rains, but, if the versant is not developed, there appears the erosion risk. To forewarn the unprocurement risk of vine culture, the producers must ensure their harvest through the agricultural assurance system. Through the morphological and physiological characteristics, the grapevine can supply itself with water from large depth and can turn to profit the sandy areas from regions affected by the phenomenon of transforming into desert. The grapevine culture involves low production costs, potential for export (the high quality of the product and the diversified assortment makes it competitive in the external market), and high revenues of additional income or expenditures economies for those who do not have as main activity agriculture etc. 53

58 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Gheorghiţă, M., Modelarea şi simularea proceselor economice, Editura ASE, Bucureşti, 2002; 2. Manole, V., Boboc, D., Istudor, N., Ion, Raluca, Andreea, Filiere agroalimentare, Editura ASE, 2005; 3. Popescu, Nela, Noi tendinte în analiza riscului afacerilor comerciale, Teză de doctorat, 2004 ; 4. * * * Administraţia Naţională de Meteorologie, 5. * * * Ofertă complexă CDI suport pentru Managementul strategic al refacerii patrimoniului şi creşterii competitivităţii economice a sectorului viticol din România în contextul Politicii Agricole Comune (2003) a Uniunii Europene, CEEX M I COMPLEXE, contract nr. 97/2005; 6. * * * Proiectul Proiectarea sistemului informaţional de monitorizare a trasabilităţii produselor pe filiera vitivinicolă din România, finanţat prin proiectul MAKIS, Acord de Grant /

59 MISUNDERSTANDING OF ROLE AND POSITION OF ACCOUNTING STANDARD SETTING AUTHORITIES TO REDUCE INFORMATION ASYMMETRY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF IRAN Ph.D. Hamidreza VAKILIFARD Islamic Azad University (IAU) Tehran, Iran Ph.D. student Vahab ROSTAMI Islamic Azad University (IAU) Tehran, Iran Ph.D. Daniela MITRAN Athenaeum University Bucharest Ph.D. Hashem NIKOOMARAM Islamic Azad University (IAU) Tehran, Iran Ph.D. Mahdi SALEHI Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Iran Abstract: Purpose - Critical role of accounting and financial reporting is providing useful information for different and entitled users to help them in making economical decisions. While repeatedly it is stressed that the quality of financial information is a function of both the quality of accounting standards and the regulatory enforcement, it is vital that standard setting authorities bodies to have independence and suitable enforcement power to guarantee their issued standards implementation with accountants in preparing and releasing accounting information, where their enacting mechanisms differ significantly across countries, even being non-existent in some countries. This study seeks with aid of Abdolmohammadi s enforcement powers classification of standards (2002) including: Reward, Legitimate, Referent, Expert and Coercive Powers, determine from perspective of respondents and current condition of accounting profession, which powers are dominant, besides it also tends to evaluate past performance of Iranian accounting regulatory. Design/methodology/approach - in order to test two main hypotheses of the study, a suitable questionnaire was used with some questions about current condition of enforcement ways of accounting standards in Iran. 281 questionnaires distributed among accounting related financial society members including: accountants, auditors, bank specialists, and accounting students as agents of financial society. After assuring of its validity and reliability, collected data tested by Kruskal-Wallis, Friedman, and T-test statistical methods. Findings - The results showed that among various enforcement accounting standards powers respondents believe coercive power is more apparent and main motivation for providing accounting formal reports in accordance to GAAP come 55

60 from managers concern of blocking their companies stock dealing by Tehran Stock Exchange organization, besides they accept standard setting professional abilities. Also respondents believe that Iran s Audit organization in standard setting process has had behaved unfairly and didn t pay attention to regulate accounting of governmental and Not-For-Profits parts as equal as large private corporation accounting. Research limitation/implication - A key technical result is that the five original powers of enforcement accounting standards don t have equal weight and influence on current accounting environment of Iran and to enhance disclosure quality and reduce information asymmetry, some work must been done to more highlight powers with positive and professional perspective. Practical implications - The paper will be of interest to standards setting authority bodies when regulating accounting information releasing process to achieve high level of market efficiency and also to academics investigating the reliability and value of current standard setting condition. Originality value - The paper reports an original application of accounting standard enforcement origins as a determinant level of dominance financial wisdom in financial society of Iran. Keywords: Accounting standard, enforcement powers, Information asymmetry, financial wisdom, and fairness in standard setting. Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In order to improve the financial reporting quality and providing useful information to investors and other entitled information users, all countries in worldwide, provide necessary regulation and had established professional authorities bodies which over time changed their structure and duties because of the environmental change. For long time in United States, Committee on Accounting Procedure (CAP), Accounting Principles Board (APB) and Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), respectively handled the accounting standard setting Steerage. Operation of forgoing bodies resulted in the increases of transparency same as reduction of information asymmetry level which in the end by enhancing market efficiency leads to optimal resource allocation. In the same way other countries take steps towards more regulation of financial information releasing process in their new organized capital markets and similar institutions was formed there. It seems in most of these countries as long as capital market enlargement and improvement financial reporting, the level of the public financial wisdom was also increased and they have sophisticated and correct perceptive about vital role and duties of accounting regulatory authorities and standard setting bodies such as FASB, Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) and 56

61 International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). In the other hand, in these countries, entities are willing to be in compliance with GAAP voluntary because they believe and accept that these institutions have sufficient expertise members and also public Consent to their operation and being in compliance with GAAP leads to maximizing social wealth and welfare. However these organizations have legal support for their issued rules and standards. In united states, for instance, FASB has coercive and legitimate powers for enforcement of it s issued standards and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dictated to all corporations which their stocks are dealing in capital markets, that they must provide financial statements in accordance with FASB standards (legitimate power) and those companies that have main departure and disagreement from this GAAP upon their auditors reports, SEC will prohibit and prevent of those companies stock deals in market and their accounting documents also wasn t used and accepted in calculating and determining income tax amount (coercive power). However there is also evidence that shows market has reacted to creative reports and stock price of such corporations will decrease (reward power of market). Moreover, because of the especial condition of the governmental entities and their accounting, their standard setting, needs necessary attention. By considering their importance in society, after more challenge finally the duties of providing necessary rules for these economic parties are taken up from FASB and shifted to new organized authorities body namely GASB which issued some special rules for Not-For-Profit and governmental organizations of United States so far, which lead to improvement of the financial reporting quality in this area. 2. Research problem Because of the vast consequences of accounting information releasing, especially from the economic perspective and also with attention to its wide affect on many parties, it is vertical that related authorities bodies have sufficient independence in standard setting and its implementation process. Also to assure that their rules have sufficient authority, it needs to be given suitable enforcement power for these professional bodies to guarantee their standards implementation in practice. The nature and degree same as ways of enacting of these regulation and enforcement powers differ significantly among countries. In some countries accounting standard setting duty is basically handled with governmental parties. So it seems that these organizations have sufficient power for enforcement of their standards, while in those countries that accounting standard setting duties are given up to private bodies, it needs heavy legal support for it s successful activation. However beyond the variation in standard setting mechanism, Abdolmohammadi (2002) classified enforcement powers of standards upon their force origin and nature in five categories below: 57

62 1. Reward Power: it is supposed that capital markets have sufficient ability to react to misleading implementation of GAAP by companies, and those companies that have had major departure from GAAP in providing accounting information, their stock prices get declined because of the market sophistication. 2. Legitimate Power: in those countries which standard setting duties are given up to private bodies, to guarantee their standards convenient implementation, sufficient enforcement legal power has been given them. For instance in united States, SEC surrendered this task to FASB which is basically a private institution, but SEC has obligated to support its standard practical implementation. 3. Referent Power: because of the election of the members of the standard setting by business society, they accept to behave in accordance on issued standard with this board. So this refers to another power of standard setting bodies for enforcement of their rules. 4. Expert power: in sophisticated societies and those countries with high level of the financial wisdom, members of the standard setting bodies are elected upon their professional same as experience merit and after that because of the professional abilities of these bodies, their issued standards very soon get common and accepted by public. 5. Coercive Power: for more guarantees to correct implementation of issued standards and to avoid any main devolution from GAAP, in most countries all over the world rigid law and serious penalty was issued for those companies which aren t in accordance with GAAP. For instance in United States, SEC would prevent stock dealing of those companies which haven t provided their financial statements in accordance with GAAP. Although all of forgoing powers are arranged in all countries, but the implemental abilities and importance of the forgoing five powers differs among various countries upon their environmental and social same as their political differences. In other hand, in those countries which supposed that have high level of the public financial wisdom, enforcement of the accounting standard because of public acceptance of positive role of these standard setting bodies to wide spreading transparency and reducing information asymmetry which in the end leads welfare enhancement of society, comes mainly from Expert, Referent and Reward Powers while enacting on Legitimate and Coercive Powers are not as important as forging three powers. In this study we seek to find out whether the level of the public financial wisdom is fairly sufficient so contributors in our financial activities have similar viewpoint about role of the Iran s Audit Organization as a unique accounting standard setting body in Iran. Hence, first question of the research is presented in this area below: 58

63 1. Is the level of our public financial wisdom sufficient so that financial society s members believe that main powers for enforcement accounting standards comparing to their Legitimate and Coercive Powers, come from public acceptance of their Expert, Referent and Reward Powers? To enrich the study and fully cover the subject we continued the research by evaluation of past performance of the Audit Organization of Iran upon public satisfaction of its past operation around fairly attention to regulation of accounting activities of all affected parties which this organization have accepted it s duties. By considering that in contrary to other countries, Iran s Audit Organization as a unique standard setting body in our country, handles the task of the accounting standard setting for both of the private and governmental parts and has accepted it s responsibility. However it seems because of the influences of the main groups on its activities this organization haven t had operated equally and in the fairness manner beyond the both forgoing parts needs and at least around the regulation of governmental parts financial reporting, haven t had done considerable effort so far, while un-similar to industrial countries more than half of the economic activities in our country are done by governmental and Not-For- profit organization. Moreover even between the companies, Iranian domestic accounting standards are willing to meet needs of large corporation which listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Organization while there are other entities except corporation that didn t give their needs weight. Thus another question of research is presented below: 2. Do the members of our financial society believe that Iran s Audit Organization s past performance around providing accounting rules and standards for both private and governmental parties have been in fairness manner and it have behaved in justice? 3. Objectives of the study The aim of the present study is determining the level and scope of the financial wisdom dominance and permanent in our financial society upon their members perception of the vital role and position of the accounting standard setting bodies to wide spread transparency and reducing information asymmetry. In other hand, in those condition which there is sufficient public financial wisdom, members perceptive of the role and position of accounting regulation authorities bodies comes from positive view and they accept the standard and implemented them in financial statements providing because they believe these standards are arranged by sophisticated professional bodies which have adequate Expert, Referent and Reward Power not necessarily from negative view of worries of legitimate and coercive Power of this organization that may take penalty for them. However there are evidences that show this last perception is dominant, it may reflect that the public financial wisdom isn t in high level in our society. Moreover, we tend to recognize and document the overall satisfaction of the past performance 59

64 of Iran s Audit Organization from the perspective of equal accomplish with both private and governmental accounting activities regulation. In summary, while the final goal of the current research is providing condition to understanding of the positive role of the accounting standard setting boards in improvement of the financial reporting quality and achieve to higher level of the capital market efficiency, the applied objective of this study is also to highlight the various parts needs to standard setting bodies which need more attention in this era. 4. Importance and necessity of the study While In recent years, the Iran economy has undergone a number of reforms, resulting in a more market-oriented economy and particularly the Government of Iran has taken steps towards liberalization of the economy, but it must be noted that more than half of economic recourses are still controlled by non-private entities and main part of the economic activities in our country were also done by those entities. However by considering the structure of the ownership of these entities which are public and don t have direct entitled users and demand for their financial information similar to owners and stockholders of the private companies, they don t have sufficient ability to influence the standard setting activities and require them for improvement of the quality of the their accounting and reporting standard, while there is a huge demand for improvement of the management s performance efficiency in this area. It is expected by regulating the accounting activities of this area, because of the increases of transparency in the society, besides the increasing the level of the management s responsibility, operational efficiency of these entities can be improved. Although Iran s Audit Organization has direct responsibility for providing and issuing the suitable accounting standards for this area which is extremely un-harmonized and inconsistent, but it hadn t have done considerable effort to achieve this goal yet. So each research which is done in this area for highlighting its problems must be supported and this study also tends to be done around these subjects. While the academic literature is intended foremost to inform the academic community, findings in the academic literature can certainly be relevant to regulators as well. 5. Theoretical issues In the 1970 decade three researchers, Michael Spence, George Akerlof and Joseph Stiylitz (2000a) created a theory about the information economic area that later was known as information asymmetry theory. Upon this theory Akerlof (2002) considers a market condition in which sellers have more information about traded commodity than buyers. Certainly in this position, prices aren t reflecting it s fair and intrinsic value and depending on informative awareness difference level are higher or lower than its fair values. Similarly in those capital markets which information distributed unequally, sellers willing to sale their stocks and securities 60

65 in high price, while in the other side, buyers because of inability to access to sufficient information for evaluation of those stocks and presence uncertainty about those securities, suggest low price to acquire those stocks. In financial literature, the abnormal Bid-Ask spread are proposed as position of dominance information asymmetry between buyers and sellers of securities and also the level of this spreading are reflecting the level of information asymmetry among dealers. However, it is known that the higher the information distributing unequally and with aid of informal ways such as inside trading, the higher the level of information asymmetry and the Bid-Ask spread prices. This topic is shown in the below equation: (1-1) Which in that: Spread= the level of difference between ask and bid prices AP= Ask Price BP= Bid Price 5-1. Role of accounting information to decrease the level of information asymmetry In order to protect investors rights and strengthen capital market, formerly, United States got steps to regulate financial reporting environment by issuing Truth-in-securities act in 1933 and establishing the SEC in the In the 1957 APB as an important standard setting body was replaced to CAP and issued the prime principles of accounting formally. From it s begining, APB was willing to provide conceptual postulates for its decisions and it must work in standards and concepts simultaneously so to be able to provide meaningful basic concepts for standards. The motive of FASB, which replaced to APB In the 1973, from preparing conceptual framework, could be seen in engaged problems that its pervious candidate, APB experienced. However, besides formation and establishing the various accounting standard setting and regulatory authority s bodies in worldwide, it also is considered that these organizations should have sufficient powers and ability to enact their issued rules for achieving the accounting main objective. The subject of enforcement of accounting standards has attracted increased attention in recent years and also enforcement mechanisms continues to differ significantly across countries, even being non-existent in some countries (Fee, 1999). Many scholars argue that the extents to which standards are enforced and violations prosecuted are as important as the standards themselves (e.g., Sunder 1997, p. 167). In particular, the quality of financial information is a function of both the quality of accounting standards and the regulatory enforcement or corporate application of the standards (Kothari 2000, P. 92). Absent adequate enforcement, even the best accounting standards will be inconsequential. If nobody takes action when rules are breached, the rules remain requirements only on paper. 61

66 In some environments, for example, firms behave towards mandatory requirements as if they were voluntary (Marston and Shrives 1996). To illustrate, even though accounting policy disclosures are required in most countries as well as by International Accounting Standards (IAS 1), (e.g., Saudagaran and Diga 1997), Frost and Ramin (1997) document considerable variation in accounting policy disclosures within and across countries. 6. Review of related literature While academics and practitioners agree on the importance of enforcement as an essential element of the financial reporting infrastructure, in comparison with huge amount of researches which were done in various accounting and financial reporting areas, there has been little, if any, research on enforcement in an international setting traceable. One potential explanation for this is that it is not easy to measure enforcement across countries. It is necessary also firstly to determine how to operationalize enforcement. Using a sample from 22 countries Hope and Rotman (2002) investigated the relations between EPS forecast accuracy and the degree of enforcement of accounting standards. They constructed a comprehensive measure of enforcement of five country-level factors including: audit spending; insider trading laws; judicial efficiency; rule of law; and shareholder protection law and find that strong enforcement is associated with higher EPS forecast accuracy. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that enforcement encourages managers to follow prescribed accounting rules, which, in turn, reduces analysts' uncertainty about future earnings. They also find evidence consistent with enforcement being more important when more choice among accounting methods is allowed. Cohen et al. (2004) examine whether financial reporting appears to have improved post-sarbanes Oxley. The authors have studied earnings management and relative earnings informativeness in two timeperiod regimes that they call the pre-sox period (1987 through the second quarter of 2002) and the post-sox period (the third quarter of 2002 through the end of 2003). The pre-sox period is then further divided into two periods: the prescandal period (1987 through the time of the Enron collapse) and the scandal period (the time of the Enron collapse through the passage of Sarbanes Oxley). The authors find evidence of increasing earnings management throughout the prescandal and scandal time periods, with the increases found primarily in poorly performing industries. The authors further find that the earnings management is positively associated with compensation derived from bonus and option compensation. Following the passage of Sarbanes Oxley, they find that the trend of increasing earnings management reversed abruptly. This evidence suggests that Sarbanes Oxley and heightened regulatory scrutiny has had a rigid impact. The 62

67 authors also have examined whether Sarbanes Oxley reforms led to more informative earnings announcements. After controlling the reduced earnings management, the authors did not find evidence suggesting that earnings announcements were more informative. Insider trading laws may deter managers from manipulating earnings to profit from trading in the firm's stock. Beneish and Vargus (2000) provide evidence that insider trading is related to earnings management. Bhattacharya and Daouk (2002) document that insider trading laws exist in 87 of the 103 countries in their sample, but enforcement (i.e. prosecutions) occurs in only 38 cases. Finally, Hung (2000) and Ball (2001) argue that strong shareholder protection should attenuate management opportunism in financial reporting. Managers in weak shareholder protection environments are more likely than managers in strong shareholder protection environments to manipulate earnings. For example, mechanisms by which shareholders might sue directors for losses incurred due to manipulated financial reports are more plentiful in the U.S. than in Germany (Hung 2000; La Porta et al. 1998). Hence, the higher anticipated cost to managers of engaging in manipulation in the U.S. might be expected to deter such behavior. Rezaee (2004) argues that conformity with existing regulations as well as recent reforms may not be sufficient to restore investor confidence. The author provides a supply chain paradigm with interrelated controls to make the reporting process more effective. Some best practices are also provided. Falkman and Tagesson (2004) also by using the lens of agency theory as well as institutional theory, and collecting data through a survey, documentary study and interviews, explored and explained the impact of the legislation and standard setting in the Swedish municipal sector. The overall results of their research showed that the reform has had a very limited impact on accounting practice and the compliance with accounting standards and legislation is in general poor. The study also shows that there are differences among the preparers. The supposition, suggested by institutional theory, that large municipalities should produce better accounting information more in line with generally accepted accounting principles, than the municipalities in general, could not be rejected. However it must be noted that the accounting profession is standing at the crossroads. The corporate world recently closed two decades of unprecedented greed and corruption. As accountants, we presently find ourselves with an overly complex rules-based, mixed-attribute accounting model, the future of which could reside in the public sector. We will be faced with numerous unresolved problems as we attempt to handle them. Some countries upon their environmental differences prefer to handle standard setting topic in public sector not necessarily in private sector or prefer principle-based comparing to rule-based standards. Wustemann and Kierzwk (2007) studied a central methodical and practical problem in three accounting regimes 63

68 including U. S. GAAP, IFRS and German GAAP which all of them pursue internal consistency. They investigated how management shall develop and apply accounting policies when specific guidance relating to particular transactions and events does not exist. With regard to the so-called filling of gaps, they showed that in an internally consistent regime management is required to choose and apply consistent accounting policies to comparable accounting issues in the absence of specific guidance. According to their analysis, the present IFRS regime fails to ensure this because IFRS dealing with comparable issues are partly inconsistent. They also documented that the complete elimination of rules and the reliance on principles only as requested by many in accounting theory is not an adequate solution since broad principles do not provide a sufficient structure to frame management s judgment in the choice of accounting policies. They propose that accounting regimes should consist of principles as well as of rules and that the rules shall be consistently derived from high-level principles. Due to the required consistency between standards addressing comparable issues, management s discretion in the choice of adequate accounting policies would be, from a normative perspective, ideally limited to one acceptable accounting treatment. In the other hand, while some disuse that adoption International Accounting Standards (IAS) by developing countries has the advantage of avoiding the high cost of setting up national standards, effectively using technical skills of other nations, but the result of the Chand s studies about the relevance of the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) in Fiji, by identifying the specific needs for accounting information in the domestic economyshowed that the needs and the nature of the social and economic systems of developed countries that are behind the formulation of the IFRSs are significantly different from those in developing countries especially Fiji. Since IFRSs are demonstrably designed primarily to suit the needs of developed countries and the relevance of implementation of IFRSs to emerging economies is in serious doubt (Chand 2005). Green and Reinstein (2004) examine whether increased regulation and public scrutiny in the banking industry changed the frequency and/or nature of observed bank frauds. They examine specific characteristics of enforcement actions against financial service organizations between for violations committee between 1982 and They find that the frequency of frauds did not change significantly across time. However, as regulatory oversight and public scrutiny increased, the frauds became increasingly likely to involve the withholding of information rather than creating fictitious information. The authors interpret their findings as suggesting that regulation and scrutiny can affect fraud strategies as much or more than fraud frequency. Tornqvist and Lumsden (2001) made a ranking of persons based on the number of years that the persons have held positions in standard- 64

69 setting bodies in Sweden during a period of ten years. This study shows that there are many persons who have held a position. However, there is a small group of persons who have held a position during many years and also in more than one body. Thus, they have had the opportunity to exercise larger influence than others. As these persons belong to various interest groups it becomes interesting to discuss potential effects for these groups. Furthermore, a comparison is made between the standard-setting bodies focusing the criteria used when selecting the members of the actual standard-setting units. This study shows the importance of considering political aspects when studying accounting standard-setting in Sweden. Historically, regulators have considered primarily the reliability of relevant information in deciding whether recognition or disclosure should be mandated. The SEC implemented Regulation Fair Disclosure in October This regulation prohibits firms from disclosing value relevant information to select capital market participants without simultaneously disclosing the same information publicly. Some were concerned that Regulation Fair Disclosure would cause a decrease in the quality and quantity of information about firms because managers: (1) would not want to divulge too much information broadly and risk that competitors would exploit the information and (2) would not want to risk legal liability from inappropriate disclosure. Studies published in the academic literature have provided some information about this issue. Heflin et al. (2003) examine whether information flow to the capital markets before earnings announcements is reduced after Regulation Fair Disclosure was implemented. The authors measure what they term the information gap for announcements before and after Regulation is implemented. The information gap is the difference between the pre- and postearnings announcement stock price after controlling for market-wide stock price movements. The authors compare three post- Regulation quarters (fourth quarter of 2000 and the first and second quarters of 2001) to the same quarters in the prior year, which are pre- Regulation. The final sample consists of 5,072 pairs of preand post- Regulation observations. The authors find a smaller information gap after Regulation Fair Disclosure was implemented. This suggests that the market actually had more overall information about the upcoming earnings announcements in the post- Regulation quarters.. Last, the authors find that firms more frequently offered voluntary earnings-related disclosures to the capital markets after Regulation Fair Disclosure was implemented. These findings suggest that Regulation Fair Disclosure did not cause a decrease in the overall amount of information made available to capital market participants. Gintschel and Markov (2004) use a sample of financial analysts earnings forecasts and stock recommendations between October 1999 and October 2001 showed that the stock price impact drop was especially large for stocks with the highest market-to-book 65

70 ratios. The authors believe that analysts would have required and received more specific and firm-internal knowledge from these high growth firms pre- Regulation. The authors interpret their findings in totality as evidence that Regulation Fair Disclosure has reduced selective disclosures to financial analysts. Jorion et al. (2005) use this unique setting to examine the change in the information environment post-regulation Fair Disclosure. The authors examine the change in the information content of ratings announcements post-regulation. They find that after Regulation Fair Disclosure was implemented, credit rating upgrades lead to larger stock price increases and downgrades lead to larger stock price drops. This evidence suggests that credit rating agencies actions do contain more new information post- Regulation. It follows that the information available to market participants (other than those privy to inside information such as ratings agencies) dropped. It also follows that the ratings agencies gained a strategic advantage from Regulation Fair Disclosure. In similar direction Irani and Karamanou (2003) examine the change in the number of analysts following a sample of firms and the dispersion of the analysts forecasts after Regulation Fair Disclosure was implemented. Using sample data from 1995 to 2001, the authors, measure end of quarter mean number of analysts following firms and the mean earnings forecast dispersion for the analysts that follow the firms. They find a decrease in the number of analysts following firms post-regulation and an increase in the forecast dispersion post-regulation Fair Disclosure. However the difficulty in measuring enforcement arises in part because enforcement takes different forms in different countries. As Ball (2001, 128) puts it, "the accounting infrastructure complements the overall economic, legal and political infrastructure in all countries". But we tend to engage in attitude from different view, especially from financial society members perception of importance and preferences of various mechanisms which countries enact their regulatory power to ensure that issued rules and standards are applied in real world beyond the ways of the setting accounting standards. For this purpose we used a classification of origin and ways of acting the enforcement accounting standards powers which provided by Abdolmohammadi (2002). These categories includes five distinct powers of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee to it s practical implementation including Reward Power, Legitimate Power, Referent Power, Expert Power and Coercive Power which their weight and importance are variant from one country to another upon their environmental, Economic and legal differences and main objective of this study is also to trace importance and dominances of those powers in Iran s financial society. The table 1 highlights this category s components. 66

71 Table 1 Origin of powers to enforcement accounting standards and guarantee to it s practical implementation Coercive Power of SEC to prevent stock dealing of those companies which didn t behave in accordance with GAAP Referent Power of standard setting bodies to enact their rules because of all acceptances to their activities Accountants and economic entities are influenced by various enforcement powers Reward Power of the market to negative reaction to misleading implementation of GAAP Expert Power of the standard setting bodies to assure that behaving in accordance with GAAP are resulted in wealth and welfare Maximization Legitimate Power of standard setting bodies that assures those entities not behaving in accordance with GAAP would not be used their accounting documents in tax calculation Powers and mechanisms of assuring correct implementation of GAAP Abdolmohammadi (2002) More over it seems that in various countries upon their market efficiency and also their members financial wisdom sufficiency, the importance and weight and influence abilities of forgoing five powers is different. Relation between these two variables and enacting those five enforcement powers are showed in table 2 below: Table 2 The relation between the level of the market efficiency and dominant of financial wisdom with importance of various enforcement powers to assure practical correct implementation of GAAP High level of society s Permanence of Permanence of financial wisdom Legitimate Power Expert Power Permanence of Referent Power Low level of society s Permanence of Permanence of financial wisdom Reward Power Coercive Power Weak level of capital market Strange level of capital market 67

72 7. Research hypotheses According to the research problem and objectives of the study two main hypotheses and several sub-hypotheses were postulated in the study as following: Hypothesis 1: The level of our public financial wisdom is sufficient that members of financial society believe that main powers for enforcement accounting standards comparing to their Legitimate and Coercive Powers, comes from public acceptance of their Expert, Referent and Reward Power. Sub-hypothesis 1: Five powers of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation including: Reward, Legitimate, Referent, Expert and Coercive Powers don t have equal weight and level of influences. Sub-hypothesis 2: Main power of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation drives from market Reward Power. Sub-hypothesis 3: Main power of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation drives from accounting regulatory bodies Legitimate Power. Sub-hypothesis 4: Main power of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation drives from accounting regulatory bodies Referent Power. Sub-hypothesis 5: Main power of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation drives from accounting regulatory bodies Expert Power. Sub-hypothesis 6: Main power of enforcement accounting standards and guarantee its practical implementation drives from accounting regulatory bodies Coercive Power. Hypothesis 2: Respondents believe accounting regulatory bodies don t pay attention in expected level to regulate governmental and Not-for-Profit and small Organizations accounting as part of their duty. 8. Research methodology Because this study tends to determine and describe the level and scope of the financial wisdom dominance in our financial society upon their members perception of the vital role and position of the accounting standard setting bodies, it is classified as applied research. Moreover, by considering that the current researches focuses on abilities of various powers to enact accounting enforcement rules and we are associating with numerous individuals of accounting environment and system, hence the research method in this study is descriptive. For determining study domain, Social theories generally and organization theories specially are analysis in three levels including; micro, macro and medium. The level of analysis of this study upon its captured individuals is macro. Also for handling troublesome attitudes which is the case of hypothesis in this study, the focus of analysis is determining level of influence of financial wisdom in our society. Finally similar to 68

73 other Survey studies that unit of analysis is human; in current study also the unit of analysis is the entire engaged individuals in providing, handling, controlling, disclosure same as using of accounting information process Data Collection and sample In order to test the hypotheses, financial society of Iran constitutes our statistic population, so we considered accountants, auditors, stock analysts, bank specialists and accounting students as agents of financial society. By considering the research methodology and objective of the study condition, the suitable tool for gathering such data is questionnaire. So for getting accurate answers to the study questions, the authors design and developed a questionnaire which is the most suitable for this study. The questionnaire contains two parts namely (A) bio-data and (B) this section includes several questions regarding the condition of the accounting standard setting and enforcement of those standards and also level of satisfaction from their bodies past performance in Iran. Five-Point Likert Scale questionnaire was employed in this research. The Five-Point Likert s scale having the ratings of strongly disagree (1) and strongly agree (5) were used. Before distributing the questionnaires with using of Delphi and getting aid of experts we get assured of validity of questionnaire. After that in order to test its permanence Cranach s Alpha method was employed. Because the results of Cranach s Alpha stood at 0.89 that is larger than minimum level of 0.7 so it shows that the study questionnaire has sufficient Reliability. 9. Results of analyses Out of 400 questionnaires which distributed for gathering data, 281 usable questionnaires were collected from the different participants. 233 questionnaires were collected from B.A degree students and 48 questionnaires were collect from M.A and PhD students. Table 3 shows the general information of the participants. Demographic information of participants The age of participants Overall frequency Percentage Under % Between 26 to % Between % Over % Gender of participants Overall frequency Percentage Male % Female % Educational background Overall frequency Percentage Bachelor degree % Master & PhD degree 48 17% Field of study Overall frequency Percentage Accounting % Management & Economic 86 30% 69 Table 3

74 Experience Overall frequency Percentage Less than % Between % Between % More than % Work area Overall frequency Percentage Accountant & manager % Stockholder & analyst 10 4% Bank specialist 26 10% Auditor 35 12% Accounting student 16 5% According to this table, majority of participants, 109 participants have age of between 26 to 30 years old (39 per cent); further 63 per cent of participants were male in contrast only 37 per cent of participants were female. Also 194 participants are working as accountants and financial managers (69 per cent). To conclude that majority of the participants were male as well as they were accountants of entities. As mentioned before, in present study two main hypotheses as well as several sub-hypotheses were postulated; hereunder the testing of hypotheses is elaborated. Testing of hypothesis 1: 9-1. Testing of first sub- hypothesis: First sub-hypothesis tends to determine whether there is sufficient financial wisdom in our financial society that they believe main powers for enforcement accounting standards comparing to their Legitimate and Coercive Powers comes from public acceptance of their Expert, Referent and Reward Powers. In the other hand, form various respondents viewpoints about five powers of enforcement accounting standards including: Reward, Legitimate, Referent, Expert and Coercive Powers don t have equal weight and merit. Statistical expression of this sub-hypothesis is presented in below: H 0 : µ 1 = µ 2 = µ 3 = µ 4 = µ 5 H 1 : there is at least a case that differs from other Where µ 1, µ 2 and so on are reflecting median answers of respondents of importance of enacting forgoing powers to assure practical implementation of issued standards. Because of ordinal scale of the study s data, for analyzing this hypothesis we employed Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric statistical methods. Table 4 shows the result of Kruskal-Wallis test below: 70

75 Number of Compared groups Number of each Groups respondents Result of the Kruskal-Wallis test Chi-Square df Sig. P-Value Table 4 Result of the test H 0 Rejected As the result of the Kruskal-Wallis test showed that P-Value is less than α (P-Value=0.00< α =0.05). So, for this sub-hypothesis the H0 rejected and there is at least a case that its mean is different from others. Remainder second to sixth subhypotheses seek by ranking the weight of five forgoing powers with aid of Friedman ranking test, besides recognizing case which make differences, determine importance and, level of influences of each power in enforcement standard process. Testing of second to sixth sub- hypotheses: In order to test these hypotheses and ranking the importance and preferences of forgoing powers we used Friedman test which result of this test is presented below: H 0 : five powers for enforcement accounting standards have same rank. H 1 : five powers for enforcement accounting standards don t have same rank. Upon the result of Friedman test, P-Value of these hypotheses test is less than α (P-Value=0.000 < α=0.05), thus in the significant level of the.5, H0 rejected and there is meaningful difference among five compared powers rank which result of test is summarized in Table 5, below: Result of Friedman ranking test Compared enforcement powers Mean rank Rank result Reward Power Legitimate Power Referent Power Expert Power Coercive Power Table 5 Upon the Friedman ranking test results among various enforcement accounting standards powers respondents believe coercive power is more apparent while they accept sufficient experience and public agreement for their operation is in later level of importance. In the other hand result of Friedman test shows that the main origin and motivation for preparing accounting reports in accordance to GAAP comes from managers concern of blocking and preventing their 71

76 companies stock dealing by Tehran security Exchange organization besides accepting standard setting professional abilities. Hence by considering the ways of arranging sub-hypothesis 2 to 6 only for sixth sub-hypothesis are null hypothesis is rejected in significant level of.95, and for remainder of sub-hypotheses H 1 are rejected Testing of hypothesis 2 This hypothesis is tend to document that respondents believe accounting regulatory bodies don t pay attention in expected level to regulate governmental same as Not-for-Profit Organizations accounting as part of their duty. For testing this hypothesis because of the quality of the data gathering with aid of Five-Point Likert Scale questionnaire, we suppose that in condition when the mean answers of the respondents is less than 3, so they are satisfied about last performance of the Audit Organization from perspective of behaving fairly with both private and governmental parts regulation and vies versa. Statistical expression of this hypothesis is also presented below: H 0 : µ 3 H 1 : µ > 3 Where, µ is median answers of respondents about degree of injustice and unfairly behaving of Audit organization in relation regulatory process of governmental and also Not-For-Profit entities same as private large corporation entities. However we employed T-test method to test this hypothesis which results are shown in table 6, below: Results of testing of second hypothesis with T-test method Table 6 Number of Participants Mean Std. Deviation T-Value d.f Sig. P-Value Result of the test H 0 Rejected As result of inferential statistics in Table 6, H 0 rejected in 0.95 meaningful levels (α=.05> P-Value=00). In the other hand, respondents believe that Iran s Audit organization in standard setting process has had behaved unfairly and don t pay attention to regulation of government and Not-For-Profits parts accounting as equal as private entities accounting. 72

77 10. Conclusion In order to reduce negative consequences of information asymmetry in capital markets, accounting system and respectively accounting profession get responsible to provide necessary regulation and mechanism to meet financial informational needs of the contributors in capital market in world wide. As long as market enlargement, duties and role of accounting profession and it s standard setting bodies has changed and increased and for assuring of practical implementation of their rules are given necessary enforcement powers to these bodies. However the present structure of financial reporting system and its usefulness is universal in the sense that it meets the requirements of users independent of culture. The results of this survey showed, level of our public financial wisdom isn t as expected as adequate in our financial society and their members believe that main power and motivation for implementation of accounting standards by entities managers comes from their concern of blocking their companies stock dealing by Tehran security Exchange organization, instead of accepting standard setting professional abilities or referent power of this boards and this last powers has placed in later importance. Moreover upon the result of the second hypothesis test, respondents believe accounting regulatory bodies don t pay attention in expected level to regulate governmental and Not-for-Profit Organizations accounting as part of their duty and at least around the providing necessary accounting rules for governmental and public sector haven t had done remarkable work so far Suggestions With due attention to results, in order to enhance disclosure quality and reduce information asymmetry, some work is necessary to be done in two distinct areas, simultaneously. Firstly, it needs to wide spread and strengthen general knowledge and awareness about vital role and position of the accounting standard setting in our society. However in the other side, it seems that it is necessary to revaluate the operational objectives and aims of standard setting bodies, at least there needs to be a periodical oversight on activities of this organization to assure they operate along their stated goals. While some have justified that for achieving equal and perpetual development in accounting regulation process, it is probably preferable with aid of other countries experiences, to establish a new especial standard setting bodies for governmental and Not-For-Profit organizations, similar to GASB in United state and dividing governmental entities standard setting duties from private ones entirely, but because of Iran s entities environmental operating differences it needs some more work in this area. However to achieve to high level of financial transparency goal in our country in future is highly depended to handle this problem. 73

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