Natural Disaster Prediction NADIP 2005

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1 1 Natural Disaster Prediction NADIP 2005 Earthquake Early Warning System Principle Summary Tel Aviv: 19 June, 2006

2 2 Content Introduction Earthquake Hazards The Infra-Sonic Phenomena in Earthquakes Infrasonic Wave Influence on Ionosphere Linkage between Distortion & Earthquake Ionosphere Distortion Detection Earthquake Early Warning System Development Goals & Financial data

3 3 Introduction (1) Earthquakes prediction is feasible. The method and algorithm of the Ionosphere structure analysis and interpretation were developed by Prof. Nathan Blaunstein, being member of Ionospheric Section of Academy of former USSR. Responsible on radar Ionosphere scanning and ionosondes is Prof. Bodo Reinisch, of the University of Massachusetts Lowell, USA.

4 4 Objective Radiophysical methods of earthquake investigation have been intensively developed during the last twenty years by use of modern distance radiowave methods of ionosphere diagnostics with help of vertical and oblique ionosondes. Using such ground-based facilities, the new ionosheric parameters critical to the seismic events can be elaborated.

5 5 At the present time the strategy of short-term prognosis of earthquakes consists of using the whole set of critical parameters, the precursors og the earthquake, including the magnetosphere, ionosphere, troposphere and the Earth s crust. The latest researches show that in the processes of earthquake preparation there appear perturbations of different types not only in immediate proximity to the epicenter, but also in the heights of the lower and upper ionosphere. Radio physical methods of earthquake investigation have been intensively developed during the last twenty years by use of modern distance radio wave methods of ionosphere diagnostics with help of vertical and oblique ionosondes. Using such ground-based facilities the new ionosphere parameters critical to the seismic events can be elaborated.

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7 7 Earthquake Hazards - Prevention Action 2 main subjects in question: When to start residents evacuation When and where to deploy the special forces Information needed: Earthquake epicenter Earthquake magnitude Earthquake time

8 8 A close correlation between ionospheric plasma density disturbances and seismic events was shown: At the end of 70th this effect was shown in Asia regions of former USSR Tadgikistan and Uzbekistan) by Drs. Aminov and Avazgel diev and their colleagues; At the end of 80th this effect was shown simultaneously by Prof. Gokhberg and his group from Institute of Earth (Moscow) using ground-based facilities and by Prof. Gal perin and his group from Institute of Space Research (Moscow) using satellite observations. The same effect was observed after a series of artificial exposures carried out in Kazakhstan (MASSA Project).

9 9 Ionospheric Experiments ( ) Were used: Oblique and vertical ionosondes at HF-frequency (5-30 MHz) band with power of W. Have been obtained: A new anomalous effect of ionospheric plasma quasi-regular structure stratification and of additional sporadic layers generation in the whole thickness of the ionosphere is observed hours before the seismic event. The same anomalous effect was observed during 9-11 May 1999, two days before seismic event in Taiwan.

10 10 Preliminary Ionospheric Experiments - Expertise

11 11 EXPERIMENTS Preliminary Experiments ( ) Were used: Broadcasting stations with radio path covered the Vrancha Region(Romania): Bucharest-Beltsy, passing above the Vrancha epicenter, Budapest-Beltsy, Moscow-Beltsy and others area there are not above the Vrancha ranges. Have been obtained:, Irregular flashes of broadcasting signals passing through the disturbed ionosphere were observed 3-4 hours before the seismic event. Sharp fading of receiving signal amplitude were observed 3-4 hours before Zhe seismic event.

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21 Theoretical Models (1992-1995) 3D-model of interaction of acoustic waves with cold dense ionospheric plasma and 3D-model of scattering of probing waves from the disturbed ionosphere to obtain the

21 21 Theoretical Models ( ) 3D-model of interaction of acoustic waves with cold dense ionospheric plasma and 3D-model of scattering of probing waves from the disturbed ionosphere to obtain the parameters of ionosphere critical to seismic event: the disturbances of plasma density, δn; the area of maximum δn N (to find the location of the epicenter at the ground surface); the amplitude of the acoustic waves δa A (to find the magnitude of sesmic event). All these parameters are presented in the final patent in form of algorithm:

22 22 Infrasonic Phenomena Movement of tectonic plates emits infrasonic energy waves

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30 30 Influence on Ionosphere Distortion of the normal patterns of ionosphere Changes on normal patterns direction Effects especially the lower layers

31 31 Linkage with Earthquake Interpretation of the ionosphere disorder mapping indicates: Earthquake epicenter Earthquake magnitude Earthquake time The information enables authorities to: Time residence evacuation Coordinate deployment of special forces

32 32 Test Experiments (1992) Have been measured: a) Relative fluctuations of plasma density in the disturbed area above the epicenter. b) The working volume and area of disturbed ionosphere above the epicenter. Was estimated: Relative fluctuations of plasma density in the disturbed area above the epicenter caused by seismic waves: < Ν/Ν 0 < 910 seismic Comparison: With HE-inhomogeneities N N < / < H E With heating induced inhomogeneities < N N0 < heat 10 / 10

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34 34 Ionosphere Distortion Detection Distortion Detection HF Transmitter HF Receiver

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37 37 Early Warning System - Principle Radio station (T/R3) constantly operational Preliminary detection of Ionosphere distortion: Power on of Ionosphere Scanning System Transmitting RDR (T/R1) Receiving RDR (T/R2) Scanning & mapping the Ionosphere for distortion Applying algorithm on the mapping results Determining Epicenter, Magnitude, Time

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41 41 Early Warning System - Schematic ~ 500 Km Area above the epicenter Volcan B

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43 43 Development Goals Conducting a full scale system operation: At a high frequency earthquake area Operating the system 3-6 month Monitored by well recognized scientific institutes Concluding as a full scale model for: Algorithm and equipment - Prof. N. Blaunstein Logistical and Marketing Col. Res. E. Oliver

GLOBAL SATELLITE SYSTEM FOR MONITORING

MEETING BETWEEN YUZHNOYE SDO AND HONEYWELL, International Astronautical Congress IAC-2012 DECEMBER 8, 2009 GLOBAL SATELLITE SYSTEM FOR MONITORING YUZHNOYE SDO PROPOSALS FOR COOPERATION WITH HONEYWELL EARTH