I find my greatest pleasure, and so my reward, in the work that precedes what the world calls success. ~Thomas Edison

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Friday, January 18, 2019: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Friday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** I find my greatest pleasure, and so my reward, in the work that precedes what the world calls success. ~Thomas Edison 5:40 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:28 JerryH: GM All 7:45 MB: GM traders 7:45 chicky527: gm everyone ;) 7:46 Deni: morning team 8:02 tsurf: Happy Friday all! 8:04 CRH: Good morning 8:04 Andy: gm 8:05 Jenna: good morning team 8:05 DRich: GM everybody 8:08 Cynthia E: Good Morning Traders! 8:08 Cynthia E: Happy ROCKIN' Friday! 8:09 Cynthia E: Let's get started! 8:09 Andy: I got caught on the C period breakout yday 40 second 6 pt drop, then the invisible hand gives it all back to me on the L period rip... 8:10 Cynthia E: Nice Andy 8:10 Cynthia E: 1

2 8:10 Cynthia E: Here is the overnight histogram. 8:11 Cynthia E: Inventory is 100% long with price set to open with a small upward gap. 8:11 tsurf: wow, a little excitement there Andy 8:11 Cynthia E: As usual, with inventory long, we'll need to monitor to see if there is a long liquidation correction to rebalance and adjust the overnight trade. 8:12 Andy:...lol, I can do without it ;) 2

3 8:12 Cynthia E: On any pull back we'll be watching for support at the YH and/or the upper balance high to see if the market is going to maintain it's bullish stance. 8:12 Cynthia E: If support holds, then we would expect further upward extension on toward and the weekly swing high at :13 Cynthia E: If the support tests fail and there is more momentum in the long liquidation, then balance rules will be in play. 8:13 Cynthia E: Re-entry into the YH / YL zone will set the target for the YL (big picture), and re-entry into the upper balance sets the destination target for the upper balance low at :14 Cynthia E: 8:15 Cynthia E: On 14400, we can see that yesterday's overnight selloff was immediately reversed in yesterday's open, and from there, the market has been back on the UPTREND path. 8:15 Cynthia E: The pull back in M period yesterday held Wednesday's high as support. 8:15 Cynthia E: That was a nice solid HIGHER LOW 8:16 Cynthia E: Now the overnight range this morning has successfully extended the run to a new HIGHER HIGH. 8:16 Cynthia E: So let's look at 3600 and start to set up our levels. 8:17 Cynthia E: 3

4 8:18 Cynthia E: On 3600, we can see the M period swing low, and since then the overnight range has been on a steady uphill march. 8:19 Cynthia E: Notice however, that price is currently at the highs. 8:19 Cynthia E: Price, the ST STO, and the ERG are extended up. 8:19 Cynthia E: There is no CLEAR swing HIGH. 8:19 Cynthia E: In order to have a level of RESISTANCE, price must first show resistance by putting in a retracement. 8:20 Cynthia E: So as we set our levels, you should already be able to see that currently we do NOT have a green line in play. 8:21 Cynthia E: 4

5 8:21 Cynthia E: Here is the big picture start points 8:22 Cynthia E: The L period swing high is the LIKELY polarity test point at :22 Cynthia E: The primary swing low / RED line is at :22 Cynthia E: With yesterday's ONL below at :23 Cynthia E: As we open up, we'll start to look more carefully at some of the swings in the overnight range, and we'll watch for the development of a good solid GREEN line. 8:23 Cynthia E: Okay! 8:23 Cynthia E: Take the remaining few minutes to review and get set and ready to go. 8:27 Cynthia E: 3 mins to go 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: And we're off 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :31 Cynthia E: We are seeing an immediate start to the retracement (displayed on the ST STO and ERG pull backs) 8:34 Cynthia E: Now we have a GREEN line in place at :39 Cynthia E: The opening gap was pts. Let's see if they get overnight longs on the run and squeeze them to liquidate in this retracement (to fill the gap), or if the gap is left unfilled. 8:39 Cynthia E: Gap rules are in play here! 8:39 Cynthia E: Gap rules state that if the gap is left unfilled or just filled, that odds favor a directional move in the original direction of the gap later in the day. 8:43 Cynthia E: 5

6 8:43 Cynthia E: I want everyone to look at your PRICE and indicators here - before and after! 8:43 Cynthia E: This teaches you A TON about market action and TREND. 8:44 Cynthia E: THIS is precisely what I was meaning. 8:44 Cynthia E: In the picture on the left we have NO IDEA if the market has reached a TOP or a defined level of resistance. 8:44 Cynthia E: The price is just heading UP, the indicators are pegged HIGH in their range. 8:44 Cynthia E: We have NO way of knowing if the market will just continue higher or head down. 8:44 Cynthia E: This is WHY we had NO GREEN line in place. 8:44 Cynthia E: NOW look at how it changed. 8:45 Cynthia E: You have a level of KNOWN resistance because you have a swing HIGH or market TOP that is CLEAR there just as the bell rang. 8:45 Cynthia E: In addition, your indicators are CONFIRMING the retracement phase. 8:45 Cynthia E: You have a nice LARGE dip off the highs of the indicators ranges in the ST STO and ERG. 8:46 Cynthia E: When I say 'watch for your cycles' to establish your levels - THIS is what I mean. 8:46 Cynthia E: We cannot have a defined resistance without the market first going DOWN to create a TOP or CEILING. 8:46 Cynthia E: And we cannot have a defined support without the market first going UP to create a BOTTOM or FLOOR. 8:46 Cynthia E: Does this make sense? 6

7 8:46 Andy: y 8:46 JerryH: yes 8:46 tsurf: yes 8:46 DRich: Yes 8:47 MB: yes 8:47 Cynthia E: When you come in and you see the indicators pegged high like that or low in their range - then you KNOW that the market is actually in position to MAKE a retracement. 8:47 Cynthia E: You don't how when or what size it will be, but you know 100% for sure that if you just jump in LONG in this case that you are chasing the market, and you are potentially entering at the HIGH just before a retracement starts. 8:47 Cynthia E: You'll be TRAPPED on the WRONG side of price action. 8:48 Cynthia E: So in other words, if we had just said, "hey the market is on its way up, I think I'll go LONG at the open and go with it... WRONG - trap! 8:48 Cynthia E: This is why we use our indicator set. 8:49 Cynthia E: To act as a guideline to SHOW us WHERE we are within our price action CYCLES> 8:49 Cynthia E: And that helps us define where our TRADE opportunities start to present themselves! ;) 8:50 Cynthia E: Now due to the bounce UP off CL - we have a Mini - RED line forming at :50 Cynthia E: The downside target there on any break below will be the gap fill 8:53 Cynthia E: No go - 1 tick close below RED 8:54 MB: my close was on sierra 8:55 tsurf: 49 here 8:55 Deni: 49 here also 8:56 JoJo: yep same 8:56 Cynthia E: I just refreshed - matching now 8:56 Cynthia E: There is the subsequent CLOSE below as well 8:57 Andy: time change 3m 8:57 tsurf: either way -.75 on it 9:00 Cynthia E: Stepped out there :00 JoJo: out :00 Cynthia E: Nice mgmt Jojo 9:01 tsurf: yes, good on ya JoJo 9:01 JoJo: volume today best this week 9:01 Cynthia E: Great observation Jojo 9:01 MB: tricky price action, lost a tic 9:02 tsurf: good management MB, yes wanting to jump around here 9:04 Cynthia E: There is an example of the 'don't get hammered rule'! ;) Solid Hammer Doji close on that last bar 9:06 Andy: price pulled back and retraced into B period & trapped eager shorters 9:06 Cynthia E: New RED trying to develop at 48.75, but we haven't bounced high enough yet to confirm it just yet 9:06 Cynthia E: Yes Andy! And keep in mind here team we are still ABOVE YH which means we are 'out of balance to the UPSIDE' 9:06 Cynthia E: Internals still quite positive here 9:09 rstrader: gap holding so far 9:09 Cynthia E: Remember relative to yesterday's BULLISH OUTSIDE DAY we are looking for "exceptional bullish performance" 9:09 Cynthia E: So far all action has been a retracement phase below the ONH swing high 9:10 Cynthia E: Yes! The gap is holding, and we are still above YH, but buyers will have to prove themselves here or the 'even larger reversal' becomes part of the high probabilities. 9:12 JoJo: VPOC 46.5 still has been touched 9:14 JoJo: has not* 9:18 Cynthia E: Yes - it was missed yesterday by a very small margin 9:18 Cynthia E: Now we have a New RED line level at :19 Cynthia E: GREEN is still at :20 JoJo: wow 9:20 JoJo: whoever got in that your are GOOD 9:20 tsurf: charts not even close 9:20 Cynthia E: We have a small swing high at , but this is again one of those situations where if you WAIT for a close above 54.50, that there wouldn't be enough room to 57 for the trade 7

8 9:20 Cynthia E: OUT B/E again 9:20 Cynthia E: Caution now - seeing some unusual volatility. 9:20 Cynthia E: I entered on the pull back to 57 after the CLOSE above 9:21 Andy: gotta love it, hit stops and drive it back down all in seconds 9:21 JoJo: love it andy yes for volume..getting in..another story 9:21 Cynthia E: It went just shy of my +3, then pulled back super quick 9:22 DRich: :22 Andy: SOH here so far 9:22 DRich: I saw it up +3 as well, but it didn't close on my bracket for some reason... 9:23 Cynthia E: I entered on a market order, and got slippage on the entry because of the fast price 9:23 DRich: I had it set at but I thought it went beyond that... 9:23 JoJo: GL 9:23 Cynthia E: So it actually was a tick shy of covering the b/a spread for me 9:23 Cynthia E: It moved so fast I couldn't adjust so just stepped back out B/E 9:24 Andy: still getting higher highs and lows 9:26 Andy: 3rd C period this week, with this kind of whipsaw 9:27 Andy: time change 3m, not random IMO :) 9:32 Cynthia E: Now as D period opens - monitor whether the uptrend is continued above :32 Cynthia E: Or whether we trigger another round of responsive SELLERS 9:43 JoJo: in 9:43 JoJo: boom 9:43 Cynthia E: Strong close above 9:44 Andy: well done 9:44 Cynthia E: Excellent job Jojo 9:44 Cynthia E: Looking for pull back to LIS here for better entry location 9:44 JoJo: from buy stop 9:44 JerryH: nice trade! 9:44 tsurf: wtg JoJo, congrats, always nice on a Friday :-) 9:45 MB: :46 JerryH: wtg MB 9:46 Cynthia E: BOOM! +3 at :46 tsurf: go MB go! 9:46 JerryH: wtg Cyn 9:46 Cynthia E: A nice thumb's up finish including the earlier small loss! ;) 9:46 Cynthia E: Great job MB 9:46 JoJo: nicey nice 9:47 DRich: Wtg JoJo and MB and Cyn 9:47 Cynthia E: Okay! Let's review the trade chart 9:51 Cynthia E: 8

9 9:51 Cynthia E: Here is our trade summary chart for the day. 9:51 Cynthia E: As we've discussed, off the opening bell, we KNEW that the market needed to make a retracement. 9:51 Cynthia E: Within that retracement, we initially developed a small RED line level just above CL. 9:52 Cynthia E: However, the breakout there failed to create downside follow through, and ultimately created that hammer doji bar, and more consolidation moved price action back up. 9:52 Cynthia E: When the breakout at the 2657 level (ONH swing high) occurred, it triggered some rapid stop action, and that created the 2nd pull back or breakout failure move. 9:53 Cynthia E: In both those scenarios, everyone managed the trade to small losses very nicely. 9:53 Cynthia E: Particularly with the pace that the 2657 level created. 9:54 Cynthia E: Then with time to adjust and settle, we got a very nice solid breakout at , we got the pull back to the LIS for 'ideal' entry, and the trade extended for the :54 Cynthia E: Are there any questions on the cycles or trade signals here this morning? 9:54 JoJo: GL 63 9:55 Cynthia E: 9

10 9:55 Cynthia E: Here is the final histo 9:55 JoJo: 1 ticker 9:55 Cynthia E: Just as mentioned in gap rules... 9:56 Cynthia E: The gap was left UNFILLED (as support) --> gaps are excess! 9:56 JoJo: Cyn, question 9:56 Cynthia E: And we got the directional move in the original direction of the gap --> UP. 9:56 JoJo: this gap considered filled? 9:56 JoJo: 6 ticks of gap from YH 9:56 Cynthia E: Internals are very bullish this morning, and they remained bullish throughout the early retracement. 9:57 Cynthia E: No - not filled Jojo 9:57 Cynthia E: It is only filled if ALL the zero prints are filled. 10

11 9:57 Andy: time change 3m 9:57 Cynthia E: It doesn't have to overlap to touch 45.50, but it has to fill the ZERO print at :57 JoJo: ok thanks 9:57 Cynthia E: You bet! 9:57 Cynthia E: Alright! 9:57 Cynthia E: That's a wrap for this week! 9:58 tsurf: Thanks for the great week Cyn and have a wonderful weekend! 9:58 MB: thanks cyn, see you Tuesday, have a great weekend everyone 9:58 Andy: thx Cyn 9:58 JerryH: Thx Cyn 9:58 JoJo: what happened to Monday? 9:58 DRich: Thanks Cyn, have a great weekend! 9:58 Cynthia E: I finished out this week with on 7 trades. (A little lower profit on a little higher trade count than usual. But I'll take it! 9:58 Andy: globex only 9:59 tsurf: half day due to Martin Luther 9:59 Cynthia E: Monday is a holiday Jojo - Market is CLOSED! 9:59 Cynthia E: Yes! 9:59 Andy: 1pm close 9:59 JoJo: thanks Tsurf 9:59 Cynthia E: Everyone have a fantastic long weekend - we'll see you all back here on TUESDAY! 9:59 Cynthia E: Adios! 9:59 JoJo: I forgot 10:06 JoJo: bye all have great weekend 10:27 Andy: time change 3m 10:32 Deni: bye all have a great weekend 10:32 Andy: cya 10:54 tsurf: have a great weekend and see someone Monday for the half day- gonna watch anyway. 10:55 DRich: See ya tsurf! End of Chat Roll for Friday, January 18,