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1 MODELLING OF POPULATION PROJECTION AND SYMPTOMATIC ESTIMATED POPULATION IN NIGERIA 1 Fasagba Irewole, 2 Adeoye Akeem O. 3 Babalola J. B and 4 Kuranga J.L 1 Dept of Geography Kwara State Polytechnic Ilorin Nigeria 2 Dept. Mathematics and Statistics Federal Polytechnic Offa,Kwara State,Nigeria. 3 Dept. Mathematics and Statistics Federal Polytechnic Offa,Kwara State,Nigeria. 4 Dept. Mathematics and Statistics Kwara State Polytechnic Ilorin,Nigeria. ABSTRACT This research modeling of population projection in Nigeria is aim to model an equation for Nigeria population and to make a projection of Nigeria population.multiple linear regression using SPSS was used and the equation obtained is Y= X X X 3, When this equation is used to estimate the symptomatic value and compared with the National Population Commission value, it was discovered that Symptomatic Estimated population for Nigeria is approximately the same with National Population Commission that is. the symptomatic Estimated is 163,736,835 while that of NPC is 163,609,494, we there by recommend that the model obtained in this research can be use to project population in Nigeria Keywords: modeling,linear, Regression,population,Estimated, projection 1. INTRODUCTION Population has been a veritable tool in national development. Unfortunately, many African countries have not been able to carry out census, which is the main source of population data, as often as it is desired. In Nigeria even though evidence of population data collection dates back to 1789 [2] and cited in [7], there has never been any consistent and continuous collection of population data. The last census in Nigeria was that of It is worthy of note that, if censuses were consistently carried out in Nigeria, the usual inter-censal period of ten years would still have required that estimates are made and used at such intervals. In Nigeria, the usual and most common techniques of obtaining inter-censal population are through estimates that are based on the application of a percentage of annual growth. Evidence from literature points to the need for inter-censal population estimation techniques and this has often been carried out through the utility of indirect techniques of population estimation [7]. Generally, indirect techniques have served as an important method for population projection. Indeed, it often unveils the trend and composition which enhance good governance [6]as well as the provision of infrastructural facilities and social amenities. However, most, if not all of the indirect methods of population estimation are substantially dependent on data generated from censuses. Available literature on Nigerian censuses reveals that the earlier head counts were grossly inadequate. For instance, the penultimate census to independence, [3] observed that the 1953 census was seriously undercounted. Supporting this argument, some scholars believed that Nigerians deliberately avoided enumeration in early censuses because of the fear that they might be heavily taxed based on their family sizes[7] and [1]. However, from independence in 1960 to 2006 census, the national censuses witnessed varying degrees of inflation. Many of the exercises were grossly abused. In most regions people were counted more than once for various reasons in all the head-counts [9] cited in [7] and [3].It has never been easy counting the number of people in Nigeria at any time. Nigerian census experience at different times presents a fascinating and instructive account. This makes it necessary to take a retrospective view at the history of population census in Nigeria. Doing that will enable us to bring to the fore the background to the pattern and types of problems in Nigerian censuses, particularly from 1952/53, 1963, 1991 to Indeed, the earlier censuses taken in 1866, 1868, 1871 and then decennially, covered only Lagos Island and some parts of Lagos Mainland (later known as the Lagos Capital Territory). The first population census covering the whole country was conducted in However, enumerations were taken in some parts while estimates were done for other Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 5

2 parts. In Lagos, for instance, there was a house to house enumeration in the main ports, while estimates were made in other areas [4]. In summary, demographic data were collected through the direct and indirect techniques. This was why Meek (1925) concluded that the 1911 census was a rough estimate of population. The subsequent 1921 census was the first systematic attempt in the decennial series. This was carried out in two parts. The Part A that was conducted in a single day, 24th April, 1921 was restricted to towns, while the Part B was done in the provincial areas between March and May 1921 (PAN, 1990; p.20). At end of the exercise, the results of the native population for townships and other areas were inflated by 5% and 10% respectively following the joint agreement by the authority [3]. Furthermore, in the 1931 census, enumeration took place in Lagos, five towns and 201 villages in the North (Census of Nigeria, 1933). Other areas were estimated. At the end, about 96% and 98.6% of the Northern and Southern population figures were obtained from existing records [4]. The south therefore had a total population of 8.61 million, while the North had 13 million. This translated to a total of million (Census of Nigeria 1921 and 1931; cited in [3]. In 1941, there was no census because of the 2 nd World War. The country then continued to depend on population data generated from the 1931 census till the early 1950s. By 1951, the need for updating the nation s demographic data had become evident. Besides, the World War II had equally affected both the physical structure and the economic sectors. Developing the sectors after the 2 nd World war therefore made it imperative to have some well planned economic programmes. This in turn required a reliable and dependable population data. As a matter of necessity, the colonial administrators embarked on conducting another population census in 1952/53. However, Lagos census was conducted in 2 years, In the north, census was conducted between May and July 1952; the west and the East had their own census between May and August At the end, a total population of 30.4 million was enumerated [3] and [7]. The 1953 exercise did not only fail to come up simultaneously but also presented a wrongly-structured questionnaire on the bio-data such as age, occupation, tribe and literacy, among others. [5] revealed that the head count took a long period of time before completion. He further stated that the age groupings were structured in a substandard way as follows: Under 2; 2-6; 7-14; 15-49; 50 and above. In 1962, another census was taken but due to widespread inflation of population figures, the result was nullified. Hence, another exercise was conducted in Albeit, the 1963 exercise was not different significantly from the 1962 census [8]. Following the decennial nature of the country s censuses, in 1973, Nigerian took another census. However, the result was rejected because, each region inflated her result. Then the 1963 census data turned out to be the only demographic data source left for development planning till 1991 (a period of about 28 years) when another head count was conducted. Thereafter, the country could not hold another one until This, of course, has remained the major source of demographic data in recent time. It should be noted that more than half of the results particularly, those for localities are still pending. Today, effort supposed to have started towards planning for 2016 in line with the United Nations recommendation. 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 Framework for Data Analysis The secondary data was used for the estimate are data collected from children immunization records, the primary schools enrolment and the voter registration records. These data were summarized and analysed with descriptive and inferential statistical techniques. In the estimate however, the multiple regression model was employed using the formula written below: Y X X X e ( Where Y is the dependent variable which represents population figures from o ij 2003 to 2011 ( the years which the national voters registrations were conducted), X 1, X 2 and X 3, the independent variables represent the national coverage for children immunization, the primary schools enrolment and the voters registration, respectively. Table 1: 2011 Symptomatic data for Population estimation State Population Immunization Sch Enrolment Voter s Reg. Lagos Ogun Oyo Osun Ekiti Ondo Enugu Ebonyi 12,071,807 4,252,132 6,689,844 3,832,663 2,603,860 3,887,336 3,648,048 2,345,680 1,731, , , , , , , , , ,420 1,022, , , , , ,862 6,108,069 1,941,170 2,572,140 1,293, ,726 1,616,091 1,303,155 1,050,534 Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 6

3 Imo Anambra Abia Bayelsa Rivers Cross-River Edo Delta Akwa-Ibom Plateau Nasarawa Kwara Kogi Benue Niger Jigawa Sokoto Zamfara Katsina Kano Kebbi Kaduna Gombe Borno Bauchi Adamawa Taraba Yobe FCT 4,476,788 5,217,059 3,133,640 1,807,759 6,160,430 3,190,975 3,605,598 4,714,595 4,444,365 3,562,610 1,993,799 2,564,286 3,705,082 4,879,849 4,511,633 5,038,139 4,190,806 3,661,656 6,999,975 12,548,161 3,634,124 7,444,217 2,564,190 4,790,554 5,423,939 3,538,758 2,482,296 2,513,197 1,476, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,212 1,117, , ,802 1,111,036 1,023, ,567 1,211, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,880 1,222,812 2,109, , , , , , , , , ,732 1,687,293 2,011,746 1,524, ,870 2,429,231 1,148,486 1,655,776 2,032,191 1,616,873 2,259,194 1,389,308 1,152,361 1,316,849 2,390,884 2,175,421 2,013,974 2,267,507 1,824,316 3,126,898 5,027,297 1,638,308 3,905,387 1,318,377 2,380,957 2,523,614 1,816,094 1,336,221 1,373, ,865 South 76,082,579 31,347,802 North 86,047,271 42,180,238 Total 163,606,497 24,453,078 21,121,157 73,528,040 Sources: Author s Compilation, The 2011 population was estimated from 2006 census while voters registration figures were obtained from INEC 2006 registration list. The immunization coverage was estimated from 2010 NICS BCG uptake. Table2:2011 NPC Estimated population and Symptomatic Estimated population for Nigeria State Sym Est. NPC. Est Variance % Var. State % Cum.% Lagos Ogun Oyo Osun Ekiti Ondo 11,994,161 4,217,668 6,093,655 3,023,324 1,680,064 4,108,053 12,071,807 4,252,132 6,689,844 3,832,663 2,603,860 3,887,336 77,646 34, , , , , S-West 31,118,925 33,337,642 2,220, Bayelsa Rivers C/River Edo Delta Ak-Ibom 1,564,441 5,053,913 2,591,931 3,634,555 4,284,136 3,940,887 1,807,759 6,160,430 3,190,975 3,605,598 4,714,595 4,444, ,316 1,106, , , , , S-south 21,069,863 23,923,722 2,853, Enugu Ebonyi Imo Anambra Abia 2,849,623 2,543,523 4,285,864 4,337,897 3,090,649 3,648,048 2,345,680 4,476,788 5,217,059 3,133, , , , ,162 42, Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 7

4 S-east 17,107,556 18,821,215 1,713, Jigawa Sokoto Zamfara Katsina Kano Kebbi Kaduna 4,794,223 4,993,599 3,829,835 7,410,854 11,413,144 3,611,941 8,461,699 5,038,139 4,190,806 3,661,656 6,999,975 12,548,161 3,634,124 7,444, , , , ,879 +1,135,017 22,183 +1,017, N-west 44,515,295 43,517, , Plateau Nasarawa Kwara Kogi Benue Niger 5,082,452 2,990,358 2,475,958 3,558,966 5,589,434 4,774,620 3,562,610 1,993,799 2,564,286 3,705,082 4,879,849 4,511,633 +1,504, ,559 88, , , , N-central 24,471,788 21,220,259 3,251, Gombe Borno Bauchi Adamawa Taraba Yobe 2,975,432 5,262,532 5,315,552 3,865,846 3,038,396 3,256,239 2,564,190 4,790,554 5,423,939 3,538,758 2,482,296 2,513, , , , , , , N-east 23,713,997 21,312,931 2,401, FCT 1,741,411 1,476, , Total pop 163,736, ,609, , Regression Equation: Y= X X X 3 Table 3: Projected Figures and Symptomatic Estimated Result for 2011 NPC estimated results Symptomatic estimated figures Variance Region Population % Region Population % Variance % North West East FCT 86,050,268 33,337,642 42,744,937 1,476, North West East FCT 92,701,080 31,116,925 38,177,419 1,741, ,650,812-2,220,717-4,567, ,764 Total 163,609, ,736, , Source: Author s Compilation, RESULTS OF SPSS Table 4: Results of the multiple regression analysis using symptomatic data Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 8

5 4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION From SPSS the equation obtained is Y= X X X 3, and this equation is used to estimate the symptomatic value and compared with the National Population Commission value, it was discovered that Symptomatic Estimated population for Nigeria is approximately the same with National Population Commission, we there by recommend that the model obtained in this research can be use to project population in Nigeria. References [1] Aluko, M, E, (2011) Zonal Registration Figures by State, Geo-Political Zone and Region. Accessed on 12 th July, at final registration figure-file. [2] Bamgbose, J. A. (2009). Falsification of Population Census Data in Heterogeneous Nigerian state: the Fourth Republic Example: African Journal of Political Science and InternationalRelation, 3(8): [3] Ekanem, I. I. (1972). The 1963 Nigerian Census: A Critical, Ethiope Publishing Corporation, Benin City, Nigeria. [4] Eniayejuni, A. T. and Agoyi, M. (2011).A Biometric Approach to Population Census and National Identification in Nigeria: A Prerequisite for Planning and Development: Asian Transaction on Basic and Applied Sciences, 1(5): [5] Makama, S. D. (2007). Report of the Nigerian National Population Commission on the 2006 Census: Population and Development Review, 33(1): [6] Mba, C. J. (2007). Civil Registration System and Census Exercise in Nigeria: Changes of Demographic Estimations. Document of the United Nations Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana. [7] Olorunfemi, J. F. (2005). Enhancing Accurate Population Census for Productivity: Science and Humanities Journal, 1(1): [8] Onakerhoraye, A. G. (2002). Population and Demography. Les Editions J. A. Atlas of Nigeria, [9] Onyekakeyah, L. (2011). The Historic Fraud on Nigeria s Population. The Guardian Tuesday, March, [10] Policy Analysis Research Project, PARP, ( ). Nigeria s Social Indicators for Legislative Guide, Abuja. Fasagba Irewolede was born on August 1 st 1973 in Kabba,Kabba bunu Local Government Area of Kogi state in Nigeria He obtained his first (Bsc Geography) and second degree(msc Geography) from University of Ilorin Nigeria in 2005 and 2010 respectively.currently is on his 3 rd years on Ph.D and is a lecturer in Kwara state polytechnic Ilorin from 2010 till date. Adeoye Akeem O was born on October 7 th 1976 in owu isin, kwara State of Nigeria. He obtained his Higher National Diploma (H.N.D) in Statistics from the Kwara state polytechnic Ilorin 1n 1999,PGD Statistics in 2008 from University of Ilorin,PGDE Education in 2007 from University of Ado -Ekiti, Teacher training Certificate(TTC) in 2010 from Federal college of Education Akoka Lagos State, Masters degree (M.Sc) in Statistics in 2010 from university of Ilorin, Nigeria and currently on his Ph.D in statistics at the university of Ilorin Nigeria. He has been lecturing Statistics in kwara state polytechnic as an Instructor from April 2005 to March 2013.He joined Federal Polytechnic offa from April 2013 to date as a lecturer.he attended many workshop and conferences. He has many journals for both national and international. John Bamidele Babalola was born on Febuary 4 th 1952 in Isanlu Isin Local Government Area of Kwara State of Nigeria. He obtained his first degree in mathematics (B.Sc) from the University of Port-Harcourt in 1982,Post Graduate Diploma and Masters degree in Statistics (PGDS,M.Sc) from the University of Ibadan in 1990 and 1997 respectively. He also did his Post Graduate Diploma in Computer Science and Education,( PGDCS,PGDE) from University of Ilorin and National Teacher Institute Kaduna Nigeria in 2002 and 2007 respectively. He has been lecturing Mathematics and Statistics in the Polytechnic since 1983.He is currently a Chief Lecturer, the Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 9

6 highest academic position in the polytechnic in Nigeria. He belongs to many Professional bodies like Mathematics Association of Nigeria, Nigerian Statistical Association, Nigerian Institute of Industrial Statistician. He has been involved in administrative responsibilities in the polytechnic. As the head of Mathematics/Statistics department (currently),director Centre for Continuing Education,Member of Academic Board,Member of council Committee,Chief Examination Officer.He has published many National and International Journal, Text books and has attended many workshops and conferences. Kuranga Lola Joseph was born on December 28 th 1960 in Alegongo-Temidire, Ifelodun Local Government Area of kwara state in Nigeria. He obtained his Higher National Diplomal (HND) and Post Graduate Diplomal in Public Relations from Kwara state polytechnic Ilorin in 1989 and 1996 respectively.he also obtained Certificate in Computer Apreciation from Ken Computer Ilorin in 1998,CIIN from chattered insurance institute of Nigeria in 2003 and Post Graduate Diploma in Education from Kwara state College of Education Ilorin in He work in Union Bank of Nigeria between ,St Demain s Vocational School Okpofe Imo state in ,Thodel Savings and Loans Limited ,Atiba Iyalamu Savings and Loans Limited Ilorin in ,International Naval Suyveys Bureau Nig Limited Lagos in , Linkage Assurance PLC Lagos State in ,Stanbic IBTC Lagos State in and currently he is a lecturer in the Department of Statistics Kwara state polytechnic Ilorin from 2010 till date. Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014 Page 10