Lessons for conflict resolution and postconflict reconstruction: The case of the 5 th Population Census of the Sudan

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1 Lessons for conflict resolution and postconflict reconstruction: The case of the 5 th Population Census of the Sudan Pali Lehohla Statistician-General South Africa

2 Concluding Remarks Census was central to peace Establishing a multi-stakeholder entity (MOC) Opening Sudan census to international participation International community support and scrutiny Sudan and Sudanese understanding of the CPA and need for peace Sudan successfully executed its 5 th Population Census billed the most comprehensive of all the five censuses Sudan ever conducted

3 Organisation of Presentation Background Administrative structure Implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Census contents and their relevance to the CPA Implementation of the Census in post-conflict conditions Concluding remarks

4 Sudan Administrative structure Sudan the biggest African country compose of 25 States 15 states north Sudan 10 states south Sudan

5 Real Individual Consumption Expenditure Shares (Africa = 100%) Sudan 5% Nigeria 13% Other countries 41% Egypt 20% South Africa 21%

6 Background Sudan embroiled in war for half a century ( ) Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005 signaling end of war CPA conceived as roadmap to the future of peaceful and reconstruction of Sudan Elements of the CPA equity, equality and justice in the distribution of power and wealth sustainable development Census is the basic tool for achieving the said goals

7 Backround Four Censuses undertaken in Sudan before the current The last undertaken in 1993 The 2008 Census of the Population is the most comprehensive for the country Plans and implementation for the South most comprehensive of all censuses undertaken in Sudan Data processing in two centres The South managing data processing for the first time

8 Implementation of the CPA Constitution article number 215 states that a Census must be conducted by the end of 2 nd year of interim period (end of 2007) Census should be monitored by an independent body Monitoring and observation Committee enacted and the Upper House named the Chair of MOC

9

10 Census tells me about my locality What are the needs? Improve incomes and livelihoods and create jobs What Census Tells You Improve food security and mitigate drought How big our payam is who is employed and in what economic activity Questions 2-11 and Improve schooling facilities so that children attend school and complete primary education Number of children of school going age in school and not in school Questions 3-4 and 17 and 18 Girls are important and should be treated with dignity. They should attend school just as boys do Girls who should be in school but are not in school Question 2-4 and Provide medical facilities including clinics to improve health of children Number of children under five years who die. Questions 3-4 and Provide clinics so that mothers do not die upon giving birth Number of mothers who die giving birth Question 2-6 and and Provide medical clinics and treat diseases such as AIDS and malaria. Provide clinics to reverse the scourge of disease such as malaria Number of people who die Questions 2-4 and Plan such that our agricultural resources are preserved, grasslands, trees, water and halt soil erosion Provide save drinking water in our payam. Provide descent dwellings for better livelihoods Number and quality of dwellings Questions 33-39

11 The Millennium Development Goals Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

12 Millennium Dev Goals G-I: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target-I: Half between 1990 and 2015the proportion of people whose income is less than US$1 a day Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. G-2 Achieve universal primary education Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling. G-3 Promote gender equality and empower women G-4 Reduce child mortality Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five Target 4: mortality rate. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels G-5 Improve maternal health Target 6: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate. G-6 Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases Target 7: Have halted by 2015, and beginning to reverse the spread of HIV and AIDS. Target 8: Have halted by 2015, and begin to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. G-7 : Ensure environmental stability Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 10: Halve, by 2020, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. Targets Questions 2-11 and Questions Census Questions Questions 3-4 and Questions 17 and 18 Question 2-4 and Questions 3-4 and Questions Question 2-6 and Questions and Questions Questions 2-4 and Questions Target 11: Have achieved, by 2020, a significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers. Questions 33-39

13 Implementation of census in post conflict conditions and the role of MOC 65 members representing: Political parties States Representatives Ministries, Academic Institutions, Universities, NGOs International and Regional organizations and Statistical Office and Donors

14 MOC Structure Population Census Council Monitoring & Observation Committee MOC Chairperson Other Census Committer MOC Sub-Committee Donors, academic institutions UNFPA, Political parties, civil society and others International and Regional MOC Main Office Rapportuer National consultant Admin Officer Finance Officer IT Assistant Secretary 25 State representatives MOC State Committee 5 members per each state

15 MOC Mandate Monitor and observe the census execution operations at all stages and levels Ensure compliance with census established criteria and standards. Ensure comprehensive coverage Ensure transparency of all census procedures and operations

16 MOC Mandates Provide regular reports including recommendations when necessary to the PCC. Provide report on the final census results to the PCC. Provide technical advice to the PCC in writing when necessary

17 Census Monitoring Phases Preparatory phase Enumeration phase Post enumeration phase

18 Monitors Selection Monitors posts advertized in local and international media Selection criteria developed Panel established Interviews conducted 318 monitors contracted

19 Monitoring Mission Structure Enumeration phase MOC Chairman Monitoring Teams Coord 3 International One National Expert Regional Monitors 9 International Experts 9 National Experts State Monitors 16 International Experts 34 National Experts Locality/County Monitors 250 National Monitors

20 Monitoring Samples One Urban and one Rural locality/county randomly selected from each state of the 25 states of Sudan. 4 EAs from Urban Locality/county and 6 EAs from Rural one were randomly selected from the EAs list prepared by CBS and SSCCSE for each state

21 Monitor s Tasks Assessment of the availability and adequacy of vehicles, equipment and material s in the state and localities office. Assess the questionnaires storage and security measure established in state and localities offices. Assessment of the identification of enumeration site. Monitoring the handling of the questionnaires in the field. Monitoring the actual enumeration. Monitoring the attitude of the Respondents to Enumerators.

22 Monitor s Tasks Cont Monitoring the data quality control by Enumerator and Supervisors. Monitoring the payment of field workers. Filling the three survey questionnaires, form A,B and C Writing the daily monitoring reports and submitting them to Regional Monitor and Team Leader. Reporting on their safety and security situation through daily telephone contacts and s.

23 9 Regional Reports 25 State Reports Monitoring Reports 130 Locality/County Reports One National Report Questionnaires A: 226 B: 1945 C: 458 Total 2649 questionnaires were completed and analysed

24 Content of Regional and State Reports Cont 1. Filling of the short and long questionnaires. 2. Return of the questionnaires from field. 3. Payment of field staff. 4. General information related to enumeration process, problem and constraints.

25 Content of Regional and State Reports 1. Administrative structure and general information about the state. 2. Recruitment of field workers. 3. Adequacy of field worker training. 4. Availability and adequacy of equipments at states and localities levels. 5. Identification and mapping of enumeration areas during house hold listing and enumeration process.

26 Post Enumeration Phase Data Processing Phase

27 Objective of DP phase Observe the adequacy of control measures put in place in order to minimize the existence of the errors pertaining to data entry and processing

28 Composition of Monitoring Teams 1 International Demographer 1 National Demographer 1 International DP Consultant 1 National DP Consultant

29 Concluding Remarks Census was central to peace Establishing a multi-stakeholder entity (MOC) Opening Sudan census to international participation International community support and scrutiny Sudan and Sudanese understanding of the CPA and need for peace Sudan successfully executed its 5 th Population Census billed the most comprehensive of all the five censuses Sudan ever conducted

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