Shape of Things to Come

Transcription

1 Shape of Things to Come NASCUS 2017 Summit San Diego August 30, 2017 John Lass, President Lass Advisory Services, LLC (608) Ten Years Ago Summer 2007 The Great Recession began The iphone was born The Black Swan was published 1

2 Advice from the Master The best way to predict the future is to create it. Peter Drucker, 1986 Note: Also attributed to others, including Dennis Gabor and Alan Kay 2

3 Global Digital Landscape 2017 WORLD U.S. Internet Penetration 50% 87% Unique Mobile Users 66% 83% Social Media Usage 32% 78% Web Traffic on Mobile 51% 54% Sources: BI Intel; Statista; GSMA; Hootsuite Smartphones: 10 Years On Source: BGR.Com; Nov. 2,

4 How Digital FinTech Began PayPal was founded in 1998 In 2016 PayPal: Moved $354 billion through 190+ countries Revenue of $10.8B and cash flow of $3.2B 197 million active customers Venmo (owned by PayPal) grew 126% PayPal has never been hacked Source: Business Wire, PayPal 2016 Financial Report, January 26, 2017 PayPal Launched the Platform Strategy DEMAND PLATFORM SUPPLY 40M Riders Uber 1M Drivers 100M Users AirBnB 23M Listings 197M Users PayPal 15M Merchants 2M Campaigns GoFundMe 25M Donors 2M Borrowers Lending Club $25B Loans BASIC PLATFORM COMPONENTS Software Internet Cloud Mobile device with GPS OBJECTIVE NETWORK EFFECT: A phenomenon whereby a product or service gains additional value as more people use it. 4

5 Ecosystem Is The Next Step Alibaba is building a massive global integrated ecosystem of platforms and services E-commerce platforms: Tmall, Taobao, AliExpress Payment systems: Alipay Data analytics: Alimama Cloud services: Alibaba Cloud Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft are each building unique ecosystems Source: Alibaba Global Leadership Academy Blog; 10/12/16 Creating the Future 5

6 Elon s Five Most Important Ways to Change the World 1. Sustainable energy 2. The Internet 3. AI 4. Genetics 5. Interplanetary humanity Source: Futurism. Com; September 16, 2016 FinTech Comes of Age U.S. FinTech transaction value in 2017 will exceed $1 Trillion Forecast to double by 2021 China s FinTech market now exceeds the U.S. In 2016 over $20 billion invested globally in FinTech PitchBook tracks 7,016 FinTechs More than 25 FinTech Unicorns (>$1B valuation) Source: PitchBook; Statista; CB Insights, January

7 Inc. s 3 Big FinTech Trends for 2017 Snapping up startups: Acquisitions of start-ups by banks is expected to become a dominant theme Valuations get grounded: After flying high in 2015, valuations are settling back to earth Back to basics: Innovation in core banking systems (e.g. core in the cloud ) seen as highly attractive Source: Inc., Zoe Henry, January 19, 2017 Jamie Dimon on FinTech Investment The reasons we invest so much in technology (whether it s digital, big data or machine learning) are simple: to benefit customers with better, faster and often cheaper products and services, to reduce errors and to make the firm more efficient. Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Letter to Shareholders April 4,

8 Consolidation: SoFi Acquires Zenbanx 2/1/17 Arkadi Kuhlmann and Mike Cagney combine forces to reshape mobile banking Dominance of the Big Five Half of the world s ten most valuable companies Each is moving outside technology to focus on: Autos, health care, retail, transportation, entertainment and finance Source: New York Times; January 5,

9 Impossible, You Say? Trending Up and Trending Down 9

10 TRENDING UP Artificial Intelligence: AI market projected to grow from $650M in 2016 to $37B by 2025 IoT: More than 6.4 billion things are connected to the Internet (excl. phones & PCs). Will grow to 50B by DNA Sequencing: Cost of sequencing a genome has fallen from $100M in 2001 to $1K today (99.999% drop). P2P Payments: Projected to top $200B by 2020 with mobile share increasing rapidly. Streaming Music: Music industry revenue is again increasing after a 20-year decline due to streaming. Source: Financial Times, February 16, 2017 TRENDING DOWN Wearables: The sector has failed to live up to the hype. Major retailers: Sears is expected to file for bankruptcy within 12 months. Shopping centers: More than 25% of U.S. retail malls may be closed (1,150 declining to 850 over a couple years). Oil: Is this the last century for fossil fuels? Taxi companies: Crushed by Uber Yellow Cab of San Francisco has filed for Chapter 11. Source: Financial Times, 2/16/17 and 4/10/17; Bloomberg January 29,

11 Around the Corner: WHAT S NEXT? Passive Wi-Fi: Consumes 100,000 times less power than traditional Wi-Fi (invented by UW students) Li-Fi: Uses light to beam information 100X faster than Wi-Fi. Light bulbs act as routers. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Does not have to be taught a specific skill, but learns as a child does. Robotics: The real threat to the traditional labor force. Evolving at light speed. Renewable Energy: Nuclear fusion, artificial photosynthesis, high altitude wind energy, and more! Source: Financial Times, February 16, 2017 When Two Trends Meet: AI & Robotics Source: Artificial Intelligence: The Future of Business Accenture,

12 Benefits of AI in Banking Happening Now 1) Enhanced customer personalization: e.g. Robo-Advisors generate personalized algorithm-based portfolio advice 2) Productivity gains: Routine, repetitive processes can be made both more efficient and more effective 3) Fraud detection: AI is now able to respond in real time to potential fraud 4) Better customer recommendations: Offer each customer the right product at the right time Source: The Financial Brand, January 17, 2017 Finie: The Financial Genie a voice-activated intelligent personal assistant able to answer financial questions unique to each user, offer personalized spending advice, and fulfill any banking task Finie User: I like how you can just use your natural language to ask any question you want. Forbes: This is the most advanced AI for the banking industry. Sources: Clinc.com; The Financial Brand, 1/17/17 12

13 Paradigm Shift? Disruption of the Automobile This disruption will transform virtually every area of society including FIs SHARED RIDES INTELLIGENT GRID TOTAL DISRUPTION ELECTRIC VEHICLES AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES SAFE DRIVING ASSISTANCE 13

14 Aarian Marshall: The American Way of Driving is Over For decades, the car has been the all-american signifier of who you are, a declaration of independence, a place where you are master. Now American innovation is leaving this tradition in the dust. Ride-hailing, self driving, data mining: Technology is taking the wheel. Enjoy the ride. Source: Wired Magazine, February

15 Intelligent Grid Will Link All Vehicles How Apples Sees Automobiles The car is the ultimate mobile device. Jeff Williams, Apple SVP Source: The Street, December 12,

16 Elon Musk s Master Plan Part Two 1) Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage 2) Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments (trucks, buses, cars) 3) Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual driving via massive fleet learning 4) Enable your car to make money for you when you aren t using it Source: Master Plan Part Deux Mercedes CASE Strategy 2020 Connectivity, Autonomous driving, Sharing and Electric drive systems each of these four trends has the potential to turn our industry on its head. Yet the real revolution lies in intelligently linking these four. Dr. Dieter Zetsche, CEO of Daimler AG 16

17 Intel Acquires Mobileye for $15.3 Billion Intel CEO sees $70B self-driving car market by 2030 Each car will generate 4TB of data/hour by 2020! Full Autonomy by 2030 or Sooner? Source: Morgan Stanley Blue Paper on Autonomous Cars; November

18 Potential Impact on U.S. Economy Source: Morgan Stanley Blue Paper on Autonomous Cars; November 2013 Paradigm Shift? If you think personal cars will survive as status symbols remember, horses were once status symbols. Simon Kuipers, FT Source: Financial Times, November

19 Auto Disruption: Discussion Points 1. How will these shifts transform society? 2. Are these trends a threat to auto lending? 3. Will they open up new lending opportunities? 4. What is the impact on insurance sales? 5. Which job categories will be impacted most? 6. How fast will this transformation occur? What could impede these trends? Amazon Reinvents the Bookstore After demolishing Borders, Waldenbooks and B.Dalton, Amazon redefines the category 19

20 Not Your Traditional Bookstore A perfect blend of digital and physical retailing Digitally curated highly efficient An Efficient Omni-Channel Experience No channel conflict Digital supports store and vice versa Minimal excess inventory Minimal store footprint and FTE count Data is a key element Highly scalable model 20

21 Amazon Model Revives Indie Bookstores Independent bookstore sales are up 10% over 2014 Utilizing print-on-demand and Internet marketing How Jeff Bezos Sees It The book is so highly evolved and so suited to its task that it s very hard to displace. Source: Financial Times; 2/16/17 21

22 What Can CUs Learn from Amazon? 1. Do physical branches serve a purpose in a digital world? 2. Will Millennials continue to use branches? 3. How can digital support physical, and vice versa? 4. What does the optimal CU distribution channel mix look like in 10 years? John Lass, President (608) john@lassadvisoryservices.com STRATEGY LEADERSHIP CULTURE 22