Aan de vooravond van

Transcription

1 Aan de vooravond van... een digitale revolutie Who am I? Drs. Dafir Kramer Origins? - Works Prof. Dr. Bob de Wit - Director, Strategy Works / Strategy Academy - Professor, Nyenrode Business University - Author, Strategy: An International Perspective 0 What do I do? - Teaching Strategy - Senior consultant and associate partner at Strategy Works - Consultant in Strategy Development - Consultant in Strategic Change How to reach me? +31 (0) d.kramer@strategy-works.com

2 100 years of America s top 10 companies U.S. Steel $46.4B AT&T $14.1B Standard Oil of N.J. $10.7B Bethlehem Steel $7.1B Armour & Co $5.8B AT&T $200.5B General Motors $171.2B International Business Machines $258.6B Eastman Kodak $177B Alphabet $719B Amazon $543B Apple $898B Microsoft $644B Tech Conglomerate Medical Oil & Gas Financial Services Film Swift & Co $5.7B International Harvester $4.9B E.I. du pont de Nemours $4.9B Midvale Steel & Ordnance $4.8B U.S. Rubber $4.6B Texaco $82.3B General Electric $63.9B Gulf Oil $58B Standard Oil of N.J. $106.5B Sears, Roebuck $64.6B Polaroid $58B Facebook $518B Berkshire Hathaway $452B Johnson & Johnson $374B Exxon Mobil $350B JPMorgan Chase $340B Wells Fargo & Co. $266B Rubber Retail Autos Telecom Steel Foods Chemicals Heavy Equipment

3 4th Wave Intel 4004 (1971) Agriculture 2000 BC

4 4.0: The vertical impact of the digital wave 4.0 Computing Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Machines Robotics 3D Printing Markets platforms Blockchain Agricultural Nature Biotechnology

5 4.0: Big Data Clustering data to sell personalized adds 4.0 Big Data Analysing risks to price health care insurance Optimizing stock & supply chain to increase efficiency and lower costs Agricultural Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

6 4.0: Internet of Things 4.0 Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing Agricultural platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

7 4.0: Virtual & Augmented reality 4.0 Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing Agricultural platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

8 4.0 & machines: Robotics 4.0 Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing Agricultural platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

9 4.0 & Machines: 3D printing 4.0 Office of the Future (2016) Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing The Dubai 3D Printing Strategy aims to reduce labor by 70%, reduce cost by 90%, and reduce time by 80% in the different sectors. Agricultural platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

10 4.0 & Markets: platforms WORLDS LARGEST TAXI COMPANY OWNS NO TAXI S Uber 4.0 Airbnb LARGEST ACCOMMODATION PROVIDER OWNS NO REAL ESTATE Big Data LARGEST PHONE COMPANIES OWN NO TELECOM INFRA Skype / WeChat Alibaba WORLDS MOST VALUABLE RETAILER HAS NO INVENTORY Internet of Things AR/VR MOST POPULAR MEDIA OWNER CREATES NO CONTENT LARGEST MOVIE HOUSE OWNS NO CINEMA S Facebook Netflix SocietyOne FASTEST GROWING BANKS HAVE NO ACTUAL MONEY Robotics 3D Printing platforms Blockchain Apple / Google LARGEST SOFTWARE VENDORS DON T WRITE APPS Agricultural Biotechnology

11 4.0 & Markets: The Blockchain Decentralized buying and selling of electricity 4.0 Big Data Internet of Things AR/VR Robotics 3D Printing Agricultural platforms Blockchain Biotechnology

12 4.0 & Nature: Bio technology 1. Harvest muscle tissue 4.0 Cheaper Big Data Internet of Things 2. Culture muscle cell Faster AR/VR Robotics More environmental friendly 3D Printing 3. Grow burgers from 1 cell Safer platforms Blockchain Agricultural Biotechnology

13 A fifth wave Kasparov and Deep Blue (1997) Agriculture 2000 BC

14 intelligence: By 2029, AI will have human-level intelligence 2029 is the consistent date date II have have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels levels of of intelligence. I have set the date 2045 for the Singularity which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.

15 A fifth wave intelligence 4.0 Computing Machine learning Virtual Beings Machines Robotic Beings Markets Machine trading Agriculture Nature Sapiens 2.0

16 Intelligence & Computing: Machine learning Meet AI lawyer ROSS intelligence Machine learning Virtual Beings Robotic Beings Agriculture Machine trading Sapiens 2.0

17 Intelligence & Computing: Virtual Beings The world s first AI news anchor has gone live in China intelligence Machine learning Virtual beings Robotic Beings Agriculture Machine trading Sapiens 2.0

18 Intelligence & Machines: Robotic beings Sophia, the first robotic citizen of Saudi Arabia intelligence Machine learning Virtual Beings Robotic Beings Agriculture Machine trading Sapiens 2.0

19 Intelligence & Markets: Machine trading intelligence Machine learning Virtual Beings Robotic Beings Agriculture Machine trading Sapiens 2.0

20 Intelligence & Biotechnology: Sapiens 2.0 intelligence Machine learning Virtual Beings Robotic Beings Agriculture Machine trading Sapiens 2.0

21 CONSEQUENCES FOR INDUSTRIES AND COMPANIES 21

22 Industries are changing (or going to change) fundamentally Mobility Valuation Safety Health Agriculture

23 Profitability Innovating for the Future The S-curve The is an Innovation Dilemma Paradox Exploration Future Business Exploitation Current Business Either / Or Dilemma Both / And Paradox Time Exploitation Exploration

24 Profitability Key Transformation Issues The S-curve The Age of Paradox Envisioning the business model Future Business Outside in Both / And Paradox Inside out Transforming the organization Current Business Planning Both / And Paradox Incrementalism Designing the organization Time Top down Both / And Paradox Bottom up

25 Strategizing Primary activities Improvements Building Vision Shaping Foresight