Verification for Proving the Route Choice Dependence of Motorists Yi Dan 1, a, Shunying Zhu 2, b, Xiaohu Nie 3, c, Yin Chen 4, d, Zipei Zhang 5, e

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1 Advanced Materials Research Online: ISSN: , Vols , pp doi: / Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland Verification for Proving the Route Choice Dependence of Motorists Yi Dan 1, a, Shunying Zhu 2, b, Xiaohu Nie 3, c, Yin Chen 4, d, Zipei Zhang 5, e 1,2,4,5 Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology, Luoyang, , China 3 CCCC Second Highway Consultants Co. Ltd, Wuhan, China a ydjy10@163.com, b zhusy2001@163.com, c nxh.sky2005@163.com, d zxiaocmlll@163.com, e yincz2012@126.com Keywords: Motorists Path Dependence; Experiment; Personality Preference; Transportation Demand Management Abstract. This article studies the existence of motorist path dependence based on the path dependence theory and the motorist's route choice rule. Combining the path dependence theory, experiment was designed and conducted with the Second Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge and Erqi Yangtze River Bridge. It uses SPSS to analysis the survey data by Factorial ANOVA, which to prove motorists route choice has path dependence character. The motorist s path dependence theory can be used to guide urban transportation demand management (TDM). Introduction Urban transportation network has some imbalance problems nowadays. However, the gradually improved transportation network is traffic flow imbalanced, whether does the motorists route choice preference do? The concept of path dependence was first proposed by Paul A. David, and North [1] further point out that the path dependence is similar to the inertia in physics. Once being in a path the motorists could have been in path dependence, and the option will be self-reinforced in the given direction, i.e., locking-in state, which is very difficult to change. This theory and the motorists path choice character of habitual choosing and tending to single were supposed as the motorist path dependence of route choice. Adler and McNally [2] found that motorists route choice would be influenced by their familiarity to the transportation network, but they hadn t explained the influence mechanism. Yang Zhang [3] and other people thought with on difference in travel time, the subjective preference of motorist performs on the final path choice. Nakayama [4] conducted experiments to find most people choosing no shortest path. Vythoulkas [5] thought motorists have behavioral preference in their route choice, with which the shortest path relationship wasn t described. Above studies show that the route choice was affected by the route familiarity degree and subjective behavior preference, but the content are limited to phenomenon description, whether there is dependence hasn t been proved. In view of this, verification test plan was designed and field investigation was completed based on path dependence theory. With the Factorial ANOVA of the data, the motorist route choice is proved to be path dependence. Confirmatory experiment A. Experiment Method The experimental verification was put up by questionnaire survey. The detailed experiment is to see Fig.1. The questionnaire survey will be carried out by collecting information motorists related to. Judgment of whether motorists are in path dependence is the proportion of the new and old path selected by the motorists. Whereby, the old path has a longer operation life than the new one which has relatively better infrastructure equal to the old path. And the origin and destination are in the symmetrical position between the old and new path, studies [6] had shown that motorists acceptable distance is within 4 km, therefore, the distance of origin and destination in survey is 4 km (Fig.2) and it is similar in traffic condition between old and new path. All rights reserved. No part of contents of this paper may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of Trans Tech Publications, (ID: , Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA-09/05/16,15:15:04)

2 1428 Advanced Information and Computer Technology in Engineering and Manufacturing, Environmental Engineering Fig.2 Two paths of motorist chosen Fig.1 Experiment verification stages B. Research objective and content Under the condition of random survey, the respondent are demanded to use cars and the use frequency is no less than 4 times per week; moreover, the motorist is needed to drive for 1 year and above in principle. The survey is prepared to collect the motorists information of gender [7]/age [8] /information breadth [9], and travel time/travel frequency/selection preference/the factor considering /travel convenience and basic information like. Studies have shown that [9], the motorist route choice is influenced by information richness so it s meaningful to consider it to further study the motorist route choice behavior. C. Survey time and place According to the curve of Ebbinghaus memory theory [10], the forgetting speed of people will be strengthened with people s study, then gradually slowed down and finally locked in. Similarly, as the path dependence has time accumulation effect [11], the information of driving is gradually accumulated and finally in stabilized condition when it isn t interfered. In this theory, the initial survey was carried out with the consideration. The study is short-time-interval and high-frequency in this phase, the survey scheme is ought to adjust real-time based on the specific situation. D. Sample filtering and eliminating After completing the survey, the samples are filtered. The filtering requirements are that the informants are required to be haven no less than one year driving experience, and second the frequency of driving will be 4 times per week or more, and the third is that motorists have driven through the Second Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge one year or more. By all above conditions the information of the questionnaires will be recorded and the samples unmatched will be rejected. Confirmatory experiment A. Cases analysis According to experiment requirements, the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge and the Second Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge are selected as the paths (the old and new path) motorists choose. These two bridges all take the river-crossing transportation function of the city center. The Second Wuhan Second Yangtze River Bridge was open to traffic in June 1995, i.e., the old river-crossing Bridges; the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge was open to traffic by the end of 2011, i.e., the new river-crossing bridge. In 2012 March to June, the survey is carried out on the 15th each month and investigations were conducted in total for four times.

3 Advanced Materials Research Vols Fig.3 Distribution of survey points (purple circles) Fig.4 Distribution of the O-D points (red circles) In the Fig.3, the red dots are the proposed survey places, and the purple ones are the actual survey places. The actual survey places totally are 13. Each survey point was collected twenty valid samples on average and 260 samples in all. Till 2012 June, there were 1040 valid samples gathered. The contents of the questionnaires are age/profession/income/travel purpose/travel frequency/travel accounting factor/information breadth/personality preferences and so on. Specifically, the age is divided into age under 35/35~50 and age older than 55. The travel considered factors include ease/economic/security and comfort. The personality preferences was presented as a question that how the motorists travel. The options include often changed / occasionally changed or seldom changed, in which way the subjective psychology of the motorist can be reflected. Travel information covers the vehicle station/internet/tv/newspaper/road sign/friends, etc. All of them indicate the information breadth of the motorists. From Yujiatou or nearby to Erqi or nearby there are two roads to take, which road would the motorist choose to go through? Yujiatou and Erqi Road are located in the both ends of the bridges respectively (Fig.4 the red circle), in which way the difference of O-D points can be ruled out. B. Survey data statistics and analysis 1) Data statistics According to the preliminary investigation and relevant references, the investigation factors are age/gender/income/ease/choice preference/information breadth. The gender was recorded as male=1 and female=0, and the other factors were similarly written as 1/2/3. Finally the route choosing information is recorded, selecting the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge (the new path) and the Second Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge (the old path) are respectively written down as 0 and 1. Statistical analysis showed that the Second Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge (the old path) selection proportion is 78% in all valid samples, which shows obvious path selection bias. To study the traveler choosing the old path, the 85% of the travelers have driving experience on the old path more than ten years. Therefore, the long-term path selection is relatively connected with the motorists future route choice. 2) Factorial ANOVA The results are showed as follow: the gender significance level value is P = , age is P = < 0. 05, income is P = > 0. 05, gender age income inf ormation = > ease is P ease = > 0. 05, information is P 0. 05, personality preference is P pers. pref = < It is shown that motorists final selections are affected by the age and the personality preference. Then the study was analyzed with two-way analysis of variance, and it is found that the age and personality preference are mutual effected, and all have obvious influence on the final route choice. C. Experimental result analysis and discussion The P value of age analysis results is 0.034, which is proved the age has significant influence on motorists route choices. Under the condition of the samples choosing the old path, the proportion of the age under 35/35~50/more than 50 is %/20% and 55% respectively. The greater the age, the more stable route choice, the greater the degree of inertia and the bigger inertial force the choosing encounters.

4 1430 Advanced Information and Computer Technology in Engineering and Manufacturing, Environmental Engineering The P value of the personality preference result is 0.00, which is to show its influence on the final route choice. In addition, it is found that over the age of 35 or more than 42% of the traveler has a fixed personality preference of one path, the so called path dependence. With the analysis, the path dependence of motorists route choice exists. Path dependence is similar to inertial force, age/personality preference and experience influence and enforce the route choice to produce the driving force, which is to strengthen the route choice behavior and then lock the motorists travel path. In this experiment the potential factors influencing the motorists route choices are full-scale considered, and then do a preliminary analysis on the sample information. With the Factorial ANOVA, it has been found that the factors surveyed have strong connection with the travel path, and then with the factors to probe the deep mechanism of path dependence of path choice, further to prove that path dependence of motorist route choice exists. Conclusion The motorist path dependence of route choice was proposed and experimented in this article. The research can guide the city s transportation demand management, and has important practical significance in efficient and intelligent travel of residents. However, the initial survey was only to be carried out in this study, which only to verify the existence of motorist path dependence. It would be better to have further research. Next phase it will gradually improve investigation and study plan, continue to continuous observation for multistage data, further discuss the mechanism and evolution process of motorist path dependence of route choice, i.e., all to provide theoretical support to the TDM of a city in progress objective and measures. References [1] Douglass C. North, Economic Performance through Time, the American Economic Review, Vol.84. [2] Adler J L, McNally M G, In-laboratory Experiments To Investigate Motorist Behavior Under Advanced Traveler Information Systems, Transportation Research C,1994,2(3): [3] Yang Zhang, Flexible Choice Strategy of Fuzzy Vehicle Routing in Urban Traffic under Uncertainty [J], JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY. Vol.41.No 4. [4] Nakayama S,Kitamura R. Route Choice Model with Inductive Learning. [5] Vythoulkas P C, Koutsopoulos H N. Modeling Discrete Choice Behavior Using Concepts From Fuzzy Set Theory, Approximate Reasoning And Networks. Transportation Research C, 2003, 11(1): [6] Carlo Giacomo PRATO, Latent Variables and Route Choice Behavior. Transportation, 2012,39(2): [7] Gender Differences in seeking challenges: The Role of Institutions. National Bureau of Economic Research,2008/4. [6] P.G. Clem, M. Rodriguez, J.A. Voigt and C.S. Ashley, U.S. Patent 6,231,666. (2001). [8] Carlo Giacomo PRATO, Latent Variables and route Choice Behavior. Transportation, 2012,39(2): [9] Mara Mather and Marcia K.Johnson, Choice-Supportive Source Monitoring: Do Our Decisions Seem Better to Us as We Age? Psychology and Aging. [10] Mara Mather and Marcia K.Johnson, Choice-Supportive Source Monitoring: Do Our Decisions Seem Better to Us as We Age? Psychology and Aging, 2000,Vol.15, No.4, [11] Mara Mather and Marcia K.Johnson, Choice-Supportive Source Monitoring: Do Our Decisions Seem Better to Us as We Age? Psychology and Aging, 2000,Vol.15, No.4, [12] Eran Ben-Elia.Ido Erev.Yoram Shiftan,The combined effect of information and experience on motorists route-choice behavior.

5 Advanced Information and Computer Technology in Engineering and Manufacturing, Environmental Engineering / Verification for Proving the Route Choice Dependence of Motorists / DOI References [5] Vythoulkas P C, Koutsopoulos H N. Modeling Discrete Choice Behavior Using Concepts From Fuzzy Set Theory, Approximate Reasoning And Networks. Transportation Research C, 2003, 11(1): /S X(02)