Airspace User Forum 2012

Transcription

1 Airspace User Forum 2012 Preparing for 2012 together Brian FLYNN Head of Network Operations Services David MARSH Head of Forecasting & Traffic Analysis

2 Contents Business Trends Current business situation Recent traffic trends Forecast Operational Outlook Targets Special events Improving performance User Forum 2012, January

3 Economic outlook: Deteriorating And currently expect further downward revisions User Forum 2012, January

4 Fuel: Stability, but at what price? Heading for 12 months at $100 Outlook for weaker Euro User Forum 2012, January

5 As emissions trading begins The price of permits continues to fall User Forum 2012, January

6 Load factors: How much higher? In Europe, continue near record highs (AEA) Some weakening on the high-yield Far East flow User Forum 2012, January

7 The best quarter of the year? Shows 5 profits down, 3 up on 2010 User Forum 2012, January

8 Traffic last year Compared to the forecast published in December 2010 User Forum 2012, January

9 Growth per market segment: 2011 Charter and the Arab Spring Cargo and economics Low-cost and the Winter 10/11 timetable Misleading December bounce User Forum 2012, January

10 Areas of growth in 2011 Turkey, Ukraine Baltic, Norway, Netherlands Canary Islands (Just May-Nov 2011 to exclude cancellations in 2010) User Forum 2012, January

11 From Europe to the major partners User Forum 2012, January

12 Other factors for 2012 Euro12, Olympics Recovery from Arab spring Tunisia, Egypt, Libya And their European neighbours Taxes Visa rules: Serbia, FYROM, Montenegro, Croatia: anticipation of accession? User Forum 2012, January

13 The outlook for 2012, by State Expecting further downward revisions User Forum 2012, January

14 How to keep up-to-date Visit CODA/STATFOR on the stand outside Subscribe to the Industry Monitor Use the Statfor Interactive Dashboard Contact User Forum 2012, January

15 Directions for Improvement - Performance Targets First reference period, , of the Single European Sky (SES) Performance Regulation. For 2014: 0.5 minutes average enroute ATFM delay per flight for the full year and for all causes, as adopted by the European Commission, and For 2012 and 2013: 0.7 and 0.6 minutes, respectively, average enroute ATFM delay per flight for the full year and for all causes, as recommended by the Performance Review Board (PRB). The effective capacity of the network needs to increase by a further 12% between 2011 and 2014, to achieve and maintain the EU annual enroute delay target of 0.5 minutes per flight and meet the forecast traffic increase of 8% (baseline growth, STATFOR MTF September 2011). User Forum 2012, January

16 Traffic growth v Distribution? Factors that impact on traffic distribution and on future capacity requirements: Transition of traffic demand towards shortest and/or cheapest routes and unconstrained vertical profiles; The different enroute charges applied in different States; The impact of variable airport operations that tend to generate peaks of traffic exceeding agreed capacity limits. In times of economic recession many users preferring to take a delay rather than a route extension. The implementation of free-route airspace in certain areas; The general improvement to route network efficiency resulting from route network design and increased number of options for airspace users; The choice of route varies between airlines and for different flights operated by the same airline, and is influenced by a number of different factors, including time of day, rotation of flight (knock-on effect / reactionary delays), fuel price paid, applicable route charges, position of the high altitude jetstream, and even the local currency exchange rate). Hence the need for alternative options and flexibility in the availability of the route network and airspace structure. User Forum 2012, January

17 Impact of Special Events The main special events are the 2012 London Olympics and Paralympics and the 2012 European Football Championship hosted by Poland and Ukraine. Work is ongoing with NATS UK and adjacent ANSPs to prepare for the London Olympics and with Poland and Ukraine to prepare for EURO The Network Manager provides operational and technical expertise to model the increased demand and different traffic patterns for each special event, to enable ANSPs to optimally configure the airspace accordingly. A number of ANSPs are implementing new or upgraded ATM systems and/or a major airspace reorganisation. Temporary reductions in capacity are planned for and managed accordingly, with the Network Management Function in a coordinating role to ensure full awareness and facilitate a coherent preparation by the States concerned, the airspace users and the Network Manager. User Forum 2012, January

18 Airports One of the key tasks of the Network Manager is to work with local operational stakeholders in managing their capacity and to ensure airport operations are fully integrated into both Network strategic planning and day to day operations. User Forum 2012, January

19 Environment / Flight Efficiency Requirements Enhancing European enroute airspace design through annual improvements of European ATS route network Improving airspace utilisation and route network availability Efficient Terminal Manoeuvring Area (TMA) design and utilisation Improving awareness of performance User Forum 2012, January

20 Improving performance 1. Flight Efficiency Support Function 2. ASM rolling process Results depend totally on AO participation and buy in. User Forum 2012, January

21 Delay Sharing (NDA) Objective: reduce overall network delay even when onloading an area that will give some delay. What is it? To facilitate use of a mandatory Scenario to offload a major congestion area even if this will cause (or increase) delay in the area to be onloaded, provided that the overall delay in the network is less and that the delay performance in the onload ACC will not be degraded. Used for? To address two basic cases: A systemic failure on the part of an ACC to provide capacity needed for seasonal traffic flows A chronic loss of capacity in an ACC/ANSP in cases such as loss of equipment/industrial action. User Forum 2012, January

22 Delay Sharing Network Delay Attribution (NDA) Timeline Trial with LFMM/LSAZ completed Summer Delays saved in the range minutes per day for a reattribution of minutes. Proposal Expand use of NDA to apply to all the Network, where appropriate. Need to simplify and expedite ops process multiple pre-season simulator runs to determine effects Results agreed between Managements of units (offload and onload) together with agreed % of reattribution NDA should not be used when a specific increase in demand is caused by a 'global' event affecting a network of ANSPs e.g. Olympic games. User Forum 2012, January

23 Driving Down Delay Objective: Produce operational delay targets to help meet performance targets. What is it? A forecast (using 5 year history + 4 week trend) to identify daily, the 'high risk' delay areas (both en-route and airport): - strategic ops forecast identifying the areas 6-11 months ahead - pre-tactical ops forecast confirming the areas 5 days ahead. Used for? Strategic forecast used as basis for discussion between NM and ANSP Management to agree a package of delay mitigation measures and procedures: some generic, others appropriate to local operations. PreTactical forecast used to ensure all agreed measures/procedures in place and executed on day of ops. Proposal First meetings with ANSPs of 'high risk areas' in early Spring 2012 to agree bilateral action plan (delay mitigation measures that are needed for Summer 2012). User Forum 2012, January

24 Driving Down Delay DELAY PLAYBOOK TUESDAY 08/11/2011 NETWORK DELAY TARGET ACTUAL LAST 5 YEARS W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 LAST 4 WEEKS ACC DELAYS CAPACITY & STAFFING REF LOC RISK INDEX W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 TARGET ACTUAL LCCCACC EDGGALL EDUUUAC LECBACC LECMALL LFFFALL POP UP CAUSE: EDWWACC EDDHAPP staff shortage evening Concentrate on limited number of problem areas DEMOTED WERE: REASON: Network Delay above Target - mostly due to Wx issues but still a reasonable result LGGG UNREST IN GREECE SOLVED LCCC - not on Target but a better performance than recently (COM Daily Debrief gives info on what was done) EPWW ONE OCCURRENCE EDGG - poor day again for them Other targetted areas all performed well EDWW - evening staff shortage and not genuine en-route: EDDH Approach Sector. Info in COM Daily Debrief Linking ATFCM measures directly with Performance User Forum 2012, January

25 Mandatory Cherry Pick (Network TCM) Objective: to allow as many flights as possible to operate according to desired profile. What is it? Use of limited number (circa 5) CTOT or mandatory reprofile to replace traditional regulation or Scenario. Used for? To solve short peaks in en-route sectors by delaying/re-profiling minimal numbers of flights and allowing the majority to operate without CTOT. Proposal Winter/Spring : Trial the technique with LFEE, EDYY or EPWW without any system change. Subject to success of trial, modify ETFMS to allow issue of CTOT or reprofile to specific, targeted flights. User Forum 2012, January

26 Dynamic Delay Mitigation Objective: Drive down the delay in those regulations which cannot be avoided. What is it? Responsibility to rest entirely with FMP to identify any and all flights that can be advanced within or excluded from the regulation. Any complaints of unfair treatment (from other AOs for example) to be dealt with exclusively in the post operational phase. Used for? All regulations. Proposal Winter/Spring : Trial the procedure with EGTT, EDYY or LFEE. To be expanded throughout Summer User Forum 2012, January

27 Short Notice Scenarios Objective: Fast action response to unforeseen loss of capacity to restore the majority of flights to an on-time operation What is it? Use of currently approved Scenarios on the NOP but at less than 3 hours' notice Used for? In response to late notice, significant loss of capacity in the tactical phase. To solve the delay issue for the majority of flights leaving NMO to focus on the minority still requiring assistance Timeline Inform/consult with AOs - Winter 2011 Introduce Spring 2012? User Forum 2012, January

28 Keystone Regulation Objective: Minimize the number of active regulations at any given time. What is it? One single, regulation replacing a chain of measures along a flow e.g. N. Europe to Iberian Peninsula. Used for? To manage the flow of traffic via an Axis whilst avoiding the complexities of flights caught in multiple measures. Timeline Possible candidate flows being researched Winter Implications for NDA to be part of that research. Report back to DOP in Spring User Forum 2012, January

29 Starred Flights Objective: Minimise fleet and commercial disruption for a small number of AO critical flights. What is it? AO identifies small number of starred flights Network Operations and FMP concentrates on prioritising these flights. Timeline Proposal being developed for proposal to South West axis. Possible trial May User Forum 2012, January

30 Network Disruption Procedures ATFM Priority Network crisis - a state of inability to provide air navigation service at required level resulting in a major loss of network capacity, or a major imbalance between network capacity and demand.. (NM IR) The allocation of ATFM departure slots shall give priority to flights according to the order of their planned entry into the location at which the ATFM measure will apply, unless specific circumstances require application of a different priority rule which is formally agreed and is of benefit to the EATMN. (ATFM IR) ATS units and airport managing bodies shall coordinate the relevance and content of the contingency procedures with operators affected by critical events, including any adjustment to priority rules. (ATFM IR) User Forum 2012, January

31 Network Disruption Procedures RAD The toolbox of disruption procedures should include the ability to relax RAD and other restrictions that are no longer as relevant when the network is operating at reduced capacity. More dynamic procedures and processes between RAD managers and Network Manager are required to ensure this. AOs to identify critical RAD units as candidates for relaxtion. User Forum 2012, January

32 Post Operations DNM has established a small post-operations cell since two years. Initial primary purpose was to ensure opeational learning and improved performance within Network Operations. Network Performance requires linked post operations functions between the «triangle of partners» - ANSPs, AOs, NM. Role of DNM AOLC and Post OPS office as focal point for AO post operations feedback and analysis User Forum 2012, January