SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research

Transcription

1 SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research Dave YOUNG EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre 13 th February 2007 European 1 Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 EUROCONTROL Albania the former Yugoslav Armenia Republic of Macedonia Austria Malta Belgium Moldova Bosnia and Monaco Herzegovina the Netherlands Bulgaria Norway Croatia Poland Cyprus Portugal the Czech Republic Romania Denmark Serbia-Montenegro Finland Slovakia France Slovenia Germany Spain Greece Sweden Hungary Switzerland Ireland Turkey Italy Ukraine PT Lithuania United Kingdom Luxembourg IE ES GB FR NL BE LU CH M C MA DZ TN NO DK DE IT FI SE EE LV LT BY PL UA CZ SK MD AT HU SI RO HR BH S-M BG MK AL GR MT RU CY TR GE AM KZ AZ 37 Member States 2

3 EUROCONTROL Director DirectorGeneral Route Charges Collection CRCO CRCO Brussels Brussels EATMP EATMP Brussels Brussels Strategy ATM Managing Agent IFPS Flow Management CFMU CFMU Brussels Brussels EEC EEC Bretigny Bretigny R&D for ATM UAC for DE, NL, LU, BE M-UAC M-UAC Maastricht Maastricht IANS IANS Luxembourg Luxembourg Training institute Training engineering UAC for CZ, SK, HU, AU, SL, HR, BiH CEATS CEATS Praha, Praha, Budapest Budapest Support Support Services Services Brussels Brussels RU RU Regulatory Unit Brussels Brussels Performance Monitoring PRU PRU Brussels Brussels SRU SRU Brussels Brussels Safety Regulation 3

4 Objective of Europe's Air Traffic Management System Overarching Objective: To harmonise and integrate Air Navigation Services in Europe, aiming at the creation of a uniform Air Traffic Management System for civil and military users, in order to achieve the safe, orderly, expeditious and economic flow of traffic throughout Europe. (Article 1 of EUROCONTROL's Revised Convention) EUROCONTROL's membership includes 37 States and the European Community 4

5 Current Performance of Air Traffic Management in Europe Excellent performance, in a context of traffic growth: Safety ensured Delays eliminated Costs reined in HL/M SEctors IATA: Western-Built Jet Hull Loss rate Hull Losses / Million Sectors 10 Year Average

6 An Evolving European Aviation Landscape Airspace Users High cost pressure (+fuel) 9/11 and economic downturn Low cost airlines VLJs, UAVs Airports Aviation: just a business Society Noise & Climate change Safety Security Sustainable growth Mobility ANSPs Corporatisation/privatisation Under pressure of users Supply Industry Concentration Global Air Traffic forecast to double by

7 Need for a Future Air Traffic Management System To address the European Challenges for predicted Air Transport Growth Enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air, Improve the safety performance by a factor of 10, Enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the environment and Provide ATM services at a cost to the airspace users which is at least 50% less. Traffic Closing the capacity gap }Gap: need for future system Capacity with planned system Capacity with current system A shift towards a new paradigm is required 7

8 Funding of European ATC Research Because of the corporatisation of ANSPs and pressure on ATC costs the trend has been reduction of national R&D budgets paid by users' charges totally offset by CEC /FP budget increase Currently, European R&D in ATM = 200 M /year: 70 % European Commission + EUROCONTROL + Industry 30 % Others (national ATS providers and R&D Centres) M Relative budget % % % % 60% % 40% % 20% 50 10% 0% % Origin of ATM R&D Relative Budget % 15% 13% 11% 11% 12% 9% 13% 11% 6% 6% 4% 7% 34 8% 6% 6% 5% 34 12% 19 22% 23% % % 29% % 22 41% % % % 21% 20% % 15% 16% % % 26% % 21% 31% 32% 31% Planned 59 34% 40% 37% Industry Tax payers Users charges (National) Tax payers (EC) Users charges (EUROCONTROL) Source draft ARDEP

9 A black mark for European R&D We (research community) are criticised as there seems to be a missing link between successes and implementation** R&D perceived as being conducted in a fragmented manner Not addressing identified needs Lacking robust user requirements Insufficient Business planning analysis and/or Safety case work 9 **SESAR D1 Conclusions

10 Europe at Work European Institutions are taking action now to anticipate the Air Traffic Management challenges of the future 10

11 A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport Converging Industry, EC EC & EUROCONTROL Needs: Turn Turn off offfragmented approach Accelerate ATM ATM evolution in in response to to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans plans from from research to to operations Synchronise airborne and and ground deployments 11 Address European needs and global interoperability

12 SESAR Definition Phase Million 2 years man-years partners and and associates from from the the Air Air Transport Industry Representing different operational & business needs needs BUT BUT Committed to to a partnership for for the the best best possible Future Future System Under Under Project management responsibility of of EUROCONTROL Co-funded by by EC EC through TEN-T TEN-T Industry wide wide consortium with with substantial EUROCONTROL effort effort contribution This This structure ceases ceases to to exist exist at at the the end end of of the the Definition Phase. Phase. 12

13 Definition Phase Study : what it will deliver Propose detailed specifications of the future system... set initial indicative targets for Key Performance Areas Impose ONE technical solution... propose one single functional architecture Get commitment from all major players... build a partnership involving all stakeholders End with a fully validated concept element... define a detailed plan for validation and test But above all : a roadmap that is acceptable and supported as THE European way forward for ATM modernisation by all stakeholders of the Air Transport Industry 13 Basis for subsequent commitment, financing and implementation

14 European ATM Roadmap Definition Development Deployment Industrialisation Deployment Foundation Validation Development Deployment SESAR Concept Innovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation Deployment Collaborative High Performance Building upon an evolving Institutional Framework (SES Regulation) 14

15 A Paradigm Shift Past Today Future A320 Procedural Estimate the current and planned a/c positions Radar Know the current and estimate planned a/c positions Trajectory Know & share the current and planned a/c positions 15

16 The Future System Features Airspace configured according to operations Automated control functions 4-D Trajectories Air-Ground datalink System Wide Information Management (SWIM) Advanced airport tools Satellite navigation Autonomous airborne separation 16

17 SESAR Definition Phase Main Milestones and Deliverables We are here July 06 Dec 06 June 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 March 08 Air Air Transport Framework: The The Current Situation ATM ATM Performance Targets ATM ATM Target Concept ATM ATM Deployment Sequence ATM ATM Master Plan Plan Work Work Programme for for D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 17

18 SESAR Development Phase Execute the plan - Channel and integrate European Research Governance: key to success Oversight by States (through EC and EUROCONTROL) Clear Funding Mechanisms Efficient Decision Making / Professional Management Simple Cost-effective Structure Transparency, Involvement & Buy-In EC to set up a JU (Art 171 of Treaty) private funding or 3rd Countries EC EUROCONTROL founding members EUROCONTROL Agency providing Expertise and Facilities Set up to be reconsidered for the Deployment Phase (2014+) 18

19 One view of the potential Research for SESAR What do we mean by Research for SESAR? Some ideas on the main potential Research activities. A paradigm shift in the organisation of Research in Europe. 19

20 From a vision to implementation: Research - a mandatory step Concept selection Concept Validation R & D Technology development and Validation Systems and Equipments development Deployment D 3 06/

21 Potential Research Activities Concept selection Concept Validation R & D Technology development and Validation Systems and Equipments development Deployment D 3 06/

22 Potential Research Activities Concept Validation The main objective of Concept Validation is to provide evidence, or otherwise, that the SESAR 2020 Concept of Operation: is safe in principle can attain the proposed level of performance is environmentally efficient and is operationally viable 22

23 Concept Validation Potential Research Activities Operational viability assessment New concept will impact operators Performance and Environment & organisation: impact assessment CDM for 4D trajectory management from strategic planning Safety to assessment pre-tactical deconfliction New repartition of roles for Separation Management, => Validation of working procedures: HIL simulations Prototyping HF experimentations Validation of collaborative processes: Modelisation of actors behaviours Trials with real data Validation of optimisation algorithms: Optimisation of trajectories Controllers Tools AOC/Mil Pilots The Human at the centre of the concept LANDSIDE AIRSIDE ATC Civ/Mil Operational viability assessment 23

24 Concept Validation Potential Research Activities Operational viability assessment Provide the evidence that the Safety assessment system can attain the required level of performances: Capacity X3 Environmental impact - 10% Predictability -1mn/+3mn Using 2020 traffic forecast: Analytical modelling, F/T simulation, Noise and emission modelling, ATFM modelling 24 Performance and Environment impact assessment Performance and Environment impact Assessment

25 Concept Validation Potential Research Activities SARPS ICAO Operational viability assessment Performance and Environment impact assessment Safety assessment Provide evidence that the system can maintain today's level of safety with tomorrows traffic: Safety level X10 Apportioning TLS: Using a holistic top-down modelling (Integrated Risk Picture-IRP) As a first cycle of certification process: Following EUROCAE / RTCA process OSED & OHA Operational Operational Performance Hazard Analysis Analysis SPR Safety & Performance INTEROP Interoperability Allocate Requirement Safety Requirement Objectives Specification & Specification Requirements Aircraft ANSP User Concept Validation European ETSO European Technical Equipment Standards Specification Order ED 78A IRP Ground System Implementing Air System Rules Community Implementing Specification Rules Guidance Community Material Specification MOPS Guidance Material Minimum Operational Performance MOPS Specification Minimum Operational Performance Specification Environmental Conditions Specifications Development Methodology Specifications Platform Customisation Suppliers Options & Add-Ons CFIT Taxiway collision Mid-air collision Runway collision WV Risk Classification Fault Tree Model Influence Model 25 Safety Assessment

26 Concept Validation Concept Validation Approach Two or three Cycles: Cycle 1: Generic Validation; Cycle 2: Refinement (Local Specific). Potentially a 3rd cycle for final refinement SESAR Definition phase SESAR Definition Phase Macro & System Model Analytical Fast Time Results Trade-Off and Results consolidation and conclusions and Trade-off Macro & System Model Analytical Fast Time Results Final Trade-Off and Results consolidation and conclusions and Trade-off EUROCAE / RTCA formalism 26 Human In Loop Cycle 1 Generic Assessment Human in Loop Cycle 2 Local Specific Assessment

27 Potential Research Activities Concept selection Concept Validation R & D Technology development and Validation Systems and Equipments development Deployment D 3 06/

28 Technology development and Validation Potential Research Activities The main objective of Technology development and validation is: To identify the impact of the future concept on the ATM system architecture, To assess the technological feasibility of the required evolution, To provide the evidence that the ATM system can deliver the required performances. 28

29 Technology development and Validation Potential Research Activities System Architecture studies Design of Architecture Technology feasibility evolution Design and prototyping of Network centric backbone: Exchange Mechanism Middleware, System Performance assessment System Architecture studies 29

30 Technology development and Validation Potential Research Activities System Architecture studies Technology feasibility Identification and feasibility System Performance assessment studies (prototyping) of critical elements: A/G trajectory exchanges, FMS / TP accuracy, CDM mechanisms, Controller tools, Cockpit evolutions, Current Pos Copyright Airbus AUTHORIZED RBT A PLANNED RBT P EXECUTED RBT X RTA Technology feasibility 30

31 Technology development and Validation Potential Research Activities System Architecture studies Technology feasibility System Performance assessment System performance modelling (System Capacity, Response times, Reliability ) Large scale trials System performance assessment 31

32 Research Enablers Concept Validation: Modelling tools for performance assessments: Network models, F/T simulators Experimental Real Time simulators: ATC, TMA, TWR, CDM Human Factors evaluation tools Technology validation: Prototypes, Architecture modelling Huge gaps exist in current environment, Need to: Fill the gaps Federate European infrastructure EATRADA initiative to assess existing tools, identify gaps, and recommend solutions SESAR definition phase complements the analysis 32

33 Conclusion SESAR brings a new dimension to European ATM The challenge: agree on, and accept to change New challenges to European Research Success? Maybe not the panacea, but with SESAR we can take major steps forward efficiently by federating our forces! 33