Open School Education 2030 Starting off

Transcription

1 Open School Education 2030 Starting off Open Education 2030: Exploiting the Potential of OER for School Education - A Foresight Workshop - Seville, May 2013 Jonatan Castaño Muñoz Christine Redecker

2 In the Future The world will look different

3 The world is changing World GDP Distribution 16% Asian Tigers 6% China Year 2000 Year 2040 forecast India USA 51% India USA EU15 Japan 21% Others 27% EU15 51% Others 16% Japan China Asian Tigers 12% Robert W. Fogel The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No

4 .with implications for Education JPS Public Policy Consulting 4

5 The world will look different and feel different The Big Buildout as we build an urban From a once rural to a radically environment that is half new by 2030 urban environment The Big Power Shakeup as we struggle to define a vision for our energy future The Big Shrink as we develop platforms for making things at ever smaller scales The Big Value Shift as we reorganize wealth around social production From a fossil fuel economy to a new energy paradigm From large-scale manufacturing to lightweight just-in-time production From institutional wage labor to vast webs of social producers From information overload to The Big Mind as we embed not only ubiquitous cognition information but our cognitive processes and social personalities in the cloud From humans as independent organisms to humans as microbial The Microscopic Self as we re-identify ecosystems with the human microbiome 5

6 ICT REVOLUTION Wide Internet Connexion Mobile Connexion: Ubiquity Web 2.0: Prosumer & Social component Closing the Skills gap? But what about the Ends divide? ICT REVOLUTION Internet Users in the European Union EUROPEAN UNION Internet Users, Penetration Facebook 30-Jun-12 (% Population) 31-Dec-12 Austria 6,559, % 2,915,240 Belgium 8,489, % 4,922,260 Bulgaria 3,589, % 2,522,120 Cyprus 656, % 582,600 Czech Republic 7,426, % 3,834,620 Denmark 4,989, % 3,037,700 Estonia 993, % 501,680 Finland 4,703, % 2,287,960 France 52,228, % 25,624,760 Germany 67,483, % 25,332,440 Greece 5,706, % 3,845,820 Hungary 6,516, % 4,265,960 Ireland 3,627, % 2,183,760 Big data & Learning Analythics Augmented Semanthic web reality Internet of things Italy 35,800, % 23,202,640 Latvia 1,570, % 414,520 Lithuania 2,293, % 1,118,500 Luxembourg 462, % 227,520 Malta 282, % 217,040 Netherlands 15,549, % 7,554,940 Poland 24,940, % 9,863,380 Portugal 5,950, % 4,663,060 Romania 9,642, % 5,374,980 Slovakia 4,337, % 2,032,200 Slovenia 1,440, % 730,160 Spain 31,606, % 17,590,500 Sweden 8,441, % 4,950,160 United Kingdom 52,731, % 32,950,400 Total European Union 368,021, % 192,746,920 Source:

7 Current Trends: Mobile 6.8 billion mobile-cellular subscriptions Wireless Intelligence (2012b) forecasts 8.5 billion connections by 2017 with 50% from the new generation of mobile networks, 3G: 40% (HSPA, EV-DO), 4G: 10% (LTE, TD-LTE and WiMAX) Samsung s flagship Galaxy S3 and Apple s new iphone 5 are LTE-enabled devices. 7

8 Mobile: Apps 8

9 Current Trends Devices Multiple 9

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11 Scale of 1:1 initiatives June 2013 Blue: local / regional pilots Purple: pilots at systemlevel Green: beyond pilots:

12 Bring your own device (BYOD) Gartner (2013): A disruptive phenomenon where employees bring noncompany IT into the organization and demand to be connected to everything without proper accountability or oversight We already own (average) 2.2 (BYOD capable devices) and 3.3 expected by 2014 (source: Dave, October 2012 Jerusalem, presentation) ~90% staff already bring some of their devices to the workplace Companies (reluctant) are faced with the consumerization of devices Until recently employees were expecting to be allocated devices (mobile, computers) Security, privacy issues US CIOs expect 38% of workforce to use personal device at work, EU lagging at half about that rate 70% of mobile professionals will conduct their work on personal smart devices by

13 Looking further into the Future Big Scale Shifts 13

14 Big data JPS Public Policy Consulting 14

15 Key changes in the ICT environment Cloud Expert Group, EC December 2012 ~2014: new resource / processor types arise ~2016: personalised devices & services, carry your own environment intelligent multimodal user interfaces commonplace intelligent virtual networking over physical networking ~ almost all software offered packaged as services ~2018: the typical size of data shared between devices exceeds the bandwidth of the network topology by far ~2020: first exascale machines (are at least aimed for) >2020: new computational models take over 15

16 Cloud: Definition 16

17 Cloud: Evolvement A roadmap for advanced cloud technologies under H2020 Recommendations by the Cloud Expert Group, EC December 2012: 6 17

18 Connected life 18

19 Digital Habits 19

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21 Bridging the Gap between Present and Future: Ideas from IPTS research on ICT for Learning 2005

22 Mapping Technologies for Learning (MATEL) ( )

23 Scaling-up ICT-enabled innovation for learning Mainstreaming and up-scaling "Creative Classrooms" Need for a more systemic approach