Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC?

Transcription

1 Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC? Finlay Colville, Head of Market Research PV-Tech : Solar Intelligence : Solar Media Ltd 13 October 2016

2 Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC? Finlay Colville, Head of Market Research PV-Tech : Solar Intelligence : Solar Media Ltd 13 October 2016 Solar Media Limited,

3 Copyright & Disclaimer All information contained within this Presentation remains the property of Solar Media Limited at all times. The Presentation is prepared for the exclusive use and benefit of the registered attendees and is provided solely for information purposes only. No part of the Presentation may be reproduced, distributed or communicated to any other party without the express prior written consent of Solar Media Limited. Although every reasonable effort is made to present current and accurate information within the Presentation, Solar Media Limited makes no such representation or warranty of any kind. In no event shall Solar Media Limited be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance upon the Presentation. Copyright 2016 Solar Media Limited 3

4 Introduction Solar Media Ltd Solar Media Ltd. is a diversified publishing, events and market intelligence business, servicing the global solar energy supply chain, including the renowned PV-Tech website. Presenter Dr Finlay Colville is Head of Market Research at Solar Media Ltd. Previously he was Head of Solar at NPD Solarbuzz between 2010 & His blogs have appeared regularly on PV-Tech.org for more than 10 years. Data sourcing All data & graphics are taken from the October 2016 release of Solar Media Ltd. s PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report. Extra inputs are from PV- Tech market research & PV CellTech 2017 agenda. 4

5 What s happening today? 5

6 Contents 1. Global end-market drivers 2. Capacity in the value-chain 3. Southeast Asia cell production 4. Pricing trends & margins 5. Capex cycles 6. R&D from the PV industry 7. Ranking PV manufacturers 8. Technology trends & drivers 9. What to expect in

7 1. Global end-market drivers Demand is defined as the shipment of components (modules, inverters, mounting, etc.). Traditionally, the solar industry has seen quarterly demand increase from Q1 to Q4. This dynamic changed in 2016, due to the 1H/2H pull from the largest end-market in 2016 China. This has caused created a strong imbalance, and has many consequences. 7

8 2. Capacity in the value-chain During 2015, overcapacity was at acceptable levels of approx %. Strong demand from China during 1H 16 led to high utilization rates, with overcapacity almost negated during Q2 16 (100% demand). This changed in Q3 16, creating a severe overcapacity situation that has caused ASP declines, prompting companies to adjust short-term plans. These plans are going to impact capex, and R&D spending, including upgrades. 8

9 3. Southeast Asia production During 2016, cell capacity across Southeast Asia (including South Korea) had grown to about 20% of global effective cell capacity. By the end of 2017, Southeast Asia cell/module capacity is sufficient. 9

10 4. Pricing trends & margins The Silicon Module Super League (SMSL) represent the dominant module suppliers for 2017: Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, Hanwha Q-CELLS, GCL Systems Integration, LERRI Solar. ASPs & margins from this group set the industry benchmarks. Margins ultimately flow into capex & whether technology change wins against cost reduction. 10

11 5. Capex cycles The SMSL has been accounting for 40-50% of all industry capex in 2015 & Two of the largest contributors to capex during are GCL (Poly & Systems Integration) & LONGi Silicon Materials (including LERRI Solar). How GCL & LONGi / LERRI decide to spend capex is the most important factor in technology roadmaps for the industry today. 11

12 6. R&D from the PV industry R&D spending by the industry is a strong indicator for technology changes 2-3 years out. The graphic highlights increased focus on n-type cell/module. 12

13 7. Ranking PV manufacturers Recently, we devised a ranking method to allow us to assess the overall impact of each PV manufacturer, regardless of whether they were pure-play or integrated through the valuechain. The methodology can be found on PV-Tech at: tech.org/editors-blog/top-10- solar-manufacturers-disruptingthe-industry-in-2016 What this grouping does with n- type versus p-type, mono-vs-multi, Al-BSF vs PERC, etc. can set the upgrade paths all others have to follow. 13

14 8.1 Technology trends & drivers The industry remains dominated by p-type solar cells, packaged into 60 & 72-cell module designs. p-type Advanced is dominated by PERC, n-type production increases minimal. 14

15 8.2 Technology trends & drivers Stage Wafer Cell Module Other trends/drivers Diamond wire saws for multi Etching for diamond wire multi wafers ( black silicon ) Heterojunction new entrants. Half-cut cells. Multi busbar forming. Bifacial. 72 cell designs. 1,500V operation. 15

16 9. What to expect in 2017 Leading indicators for PV technology change moving into 2017 include: Annual demand levels not sufficient to change the industry environment being seen today. What Next after PERC? Could be a question for 2018, not Cost reduction, yield optimization, 72 cell versus 60 cell, 1,500V modules, multi BB increases. These could all take precedence over black-silicon, bifacial, p-multi PERC, etc. However, the module available to installers & EPCs in 2017 will be: Much higher power, Much higher quality, Much lower price... And this can only be good for the PV industry as a whole! 16

17 Further information For questions on the webinar, To subscribe to the PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report, contact us at: Keep track of PV manufacturing & technology news Sign up to attend PV CellTech 2017 in Penang, Malaysia: March 2017 Check out our printed journals & magazines on topical trends

18 Thank-you!