8 th Edition. Global Digital PTP Radio Market Analysis and Forecast, April 2012

Transcription

1 Market Analysis Earl J. Lum th Edition Global Digital PTP Radio Market Analysis and Forecast, April 2012 Entire contents. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden and will be prosecuted to the fully extent of US and International laws. The transfer of this publication in either paper or electronic form to unlicensed third parties is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources EJL Wireless Research LLC deems reliable. EJL Wireless Research disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. EJL Wireless Research LLC shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for the interpretation thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Review Growth year as mobile networks prepare for 4G... 8 PTP Radio Forecast Demand Drivers for the Forecast...13 Potential Downside to the Forecast...14 Summary...14 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY CHAPTER 1: OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE Market Not Impacted Severely by Financial Crisis in Europe Radio Capacity Analysis OEM Analysis Ericsson Remains Top Supplier TDM vs. SDH vs. Ethernet vs. Hybrid Technology Industry Trends...24 CHAPTER 2: MICROCELL BACKHAUL ANALYSIS CHAPTER 3: PTP RADIO FORECAST PTP Radio Forecast PTP Radio Capacity & Technology Forecast Full Indoor Radio Supplementary Forecasts Macrocell BTS vs. Microcell BTS Backhaul Forecast...39 CHAPTER 4: 2-50MB LOW/MEDIUM CAPACITY PTP RADIO SEGMENT Mb Low/Medium Capacity TDM PTP Radio Segment Mb Low/Medium Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Segment Mb Low/Medium Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Segment...50 CHAPTER 5: MB HIGH CAPACITY PTP RADIO SEGMENT Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Segment Mb High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Segment Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Segment Mb High Capacity TDM PTP Radio Segment...66 CHAPTER 6: GB ULTRA HIGH CAPACITY PTP RADIO SEGMENT Gb Ultra High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Segment Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Segment...76 CHAPTER 7: ULTRA HIGH CAPACITY/ULTRA HIGH FREQUENCY (UHCUHF) Target Markets Competitive Landscape UHCUHF Market Share Gigabit Ethernet 60/70/80GHz Radios Fast Ethernet 60/70/80GHz Radios UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast, UHCUHF Forecast by Frequency, UHCUHF Forecast by Ethernet Transport Capacity, CHAPTER 8: HIGH CAPACITY TRUNK TECHNOLOGY Single Channel vs. Multi-Channel Trunk Radios Trunk Radios by Transport Technology Protected vs. Non-Protected Trunk Radios

3 CHAPTER 9: XPIC SHIPMENTS CHAPTER 10: GEOGRAPHICAL MARKET ANALYSIS Geographical Forecast North America & Latin America Western Europe & Eastern Europe Africa & Middle East Asia Pacific Brazil/Russia/India/Indonesia/China (BRIIC) Analysis BRIIC + Middle East + Africa CHAPTER 11: CHINESE RADIO VENDORS Mb Low Capacity Segment Mb High Capacity Segment CHAPTER 12: PTP RADIO FREQUENCY BAND ANALYSIS GHz Band Posts Highest Growth in CHAPTER 13: APPLICATION MARKET ANALYSIS Forecast New Site vs. Capacity Upgrade Analysis Mobile Networks Enterprise/Private Networks Broadband Wireless Access Networks PTT/Fixed Wireline Networks LEC/CLEC Networks CHAPTER 14: TAIL NODES VS. AGGREGATION NODES CHAPTER 15: ETSI VS. ANSI MARKET ANALYSIS ETSI Market Analysis ANSI Market Analysis

4 TABLES Table 1: Global PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 2: Global PTP Radio Market Share by Capacity & Technology, (Units) Table 3: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Capacity & Technology, (Units) Table 4: Comparison of 2011 Global PTP Radio Forecast by Capacity & Technology vs. Actual Shipments 18 Table 5: Global PTP Radio Market Share by Capacity & Technology, (Units) Table 6: Global PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 7: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Capacity & Technology, (Units) Table 8: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Capacity & Technology, (% Market Share) Table 9: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Capacity & Technology, (% YoY Growth) Table 10: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Channelization, (Units) Table 11: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Channelization, (% Market Share) Table 12: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Channelization, (% YoY Growth) Table 13: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Protection Scheme, (Units) Table 14: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Protection Scheme, (% Market Share) 38 Table 15: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Protection Scheme, (% YoY Growth) Table 16: PTP Radio Backhaul Requirements for Mobile vs. Non-Mobile Applications, Table 17: Macrocell vs. Microcell BTS PTP Radio Backhaul Requirements, Table 18: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, (Units) Table 19: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 20: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity TDM PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 21: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 22: Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, (Units) Table 23: Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 24: Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 25: Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units).. 57 Table 26: Global Mb High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 27: Global Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) 64 Table 28: Global Mb High Capacity TDM PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 29: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, (Units) Table 30: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 31: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 32: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units). 77 Table 33: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity 60-80GHz Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 34: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Market Share, (Units) Table 35: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Frequency, (Units) Table 36: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Frequency, (% Market Share) Table 37: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Frequency, (% YoY Growth) Table 38: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Transport Capacity, (Units) Table 39: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Transport Capacity, (% Market Share) Table 40: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Transport Capacity, (% YoY Growth) Table 41: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 42: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Channel Configuration, (Units) Table 43: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, (Units) Table 44: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Protection Technology, (Units) Table 45: Global XPIC Combiner Shipments, (Units) Table 46: Comparison of Global PTP Radio Forecast by Geographic Region vs. Actual Shipments, Table 47: Comparison of Global PTP Radio Forecast by Country vs. Actual Shipments, Table 48: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Geographical Region, (Units) Table 49: EMEA PTP Radio Shipments by Geographical Region, (Units) Table 50: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Geography, (Units) Table 51: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Geography, (% Market Share)

5 Table 52: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Geography, (%YoY Growth) Table 53: Brazil PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 54: Russia PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 55: China, India, and Indonesia PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 56: BRIIC PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 57: BRIIC PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Table 58: BRIIC PTP Radio Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 59: BRIIC PTP Radio Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Table 60: BRIICMEA PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Table 61: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Frequency, (Units) Table 62: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Frequency, (Units) Table 63: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Applications, (Units) Table 64: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Application, (Units) Table 65: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Application, (% Market Share) Table 66: Global PTP Radio Forecast by Application, (% YoY Growth) Table 67: Global PTP Radio Forecast New Sites vs. Capacity Upgrades, (Units) Table 68: Global PTP Radio Forecast New Sites vs. Capacity Upgrades, (% Market Share) Table 69: Global PTP Radio Forecast New Sites vs. Capacity Upgrades, (% YoY Growth) Table 70: Global PTP Radio Shipments, Tail Nodes vs. Aggregation Nodes, (Units) Table 71: Global PTP Radio Shipments, Tail Nodes vs. Aggregation Nodes, (% Market Share) Table 72: Global PTP Radio Shipments, Tail Nodes vs. Aggregation Nodes, (%YoY Growth). 141 Table 73: ETSI PTP Radio Shipments by OEM, (Units) Table 74: ANSI PTP Radio Shipments by OEM, (Units)

6 EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: Global PTP Radio Shipments, (Units)...9 Exhibit 2: Global PTP Radio Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 3: PTP Radio Product Universe Exhibit 4: Comparison of 2011 Global PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 5: Global PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 6: Global PTP Radio Market Share by Capacity & Technology, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 7: Global PTP Radio Market Share, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 8: Global PTP Radio Market Share by Transport Technology, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 9: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with LTE Microcells Exhibit 10: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with Wi-Fi Microcells Exhibit 11: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with LTE+Wi-Fi Microcells Exhibit 12: Global PTP Radio Forecast , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 13: Global PTP Radio Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 14: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Channelization, (Units) Exhibit 15: Global Indoor Trunk PTP Radio Forecast by Protection Scheme, (Units) Exhibit 16: PTP Radio Backhaul Requirements for Mobile vs. Non-Mobile Applications, Exhibit 17: Macrocell vs. Microcell BTS PTP Radio Backhaul Requirements, Exhibit 18: Comparison of 2011 Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 19: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 20: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 21: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Configuration, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 22: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 23: Comparison of 2011 Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity TDM PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 24: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity TDM PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 25: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity TDM PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 26: Comparison of 2011 Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 27: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 28: Global 2-50Mb Low/Medium Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units). 50 Exhibit 29: Comparison of 2011 Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 30: Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 31: Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 32: Global Mb High Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 33: Comparison of 2011 Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 34: Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 35: Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 36: Global Mb High Capacity Optical PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 37: Comparison of 2011 Global Mb High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 38: Global Mb High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 39: Global Mb High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 40: Comparison of 2011 Global Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 41: Global Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 42: Global Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 43: Global Mb High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by Frequency Band, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 44: Comparison of 2011 Global Mb High Capacity TDM PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 45: Global Mb High Capacity TDM PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 46: Global Mb High Capacity TDM PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 47: Comparison of 2011 Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 48: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 49: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, 2011 (Units) 71 5

7 Exhibit 50: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity PTP Radio Shipments by Modem Configuration, 2011 (Units) 71 Exhibit 51: Global 1Gb High Capacity PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 52: Comparison of 2011 Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 53: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 54: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Hybrid PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 55: Comparison of 2011 Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 56: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 57: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 58: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by Frequency Band, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 59: Global 1Gb Ultra High Capacity 60-80GHz Ethernet PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 60: PTP Radio Product Definition within UHCUHF Exhibit 61: Comparison of 2011 Global 60-80GHz UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 62: Global 60-80GHz UHCUHF PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 63: Global 60-80GHz UHCUHF Radio Shipments by Frequency, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 64: Global 60-80GHz UHCUHF Radio Shipments by Ethernet Transport Capacity, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 65: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Market Share, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 66: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Shipments by Geographical Region, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 67: Global Gigabit Ethernet 60/70/80GHz PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 68: Global Fast Ethernet 60/70/80GHzr PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 69: Global FE/GE UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 70: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 71: Global 60GHz Radio Shipments by Transport Capacity, (Units) Exhibit 72: Global 70/80GHz Radio Shipments by Transport Capacity, (Units) Exhibit 73: Global UHCUHF PTP Radio Forecast by Transport Capacity, (Units) Exhibit 74: Global UHCUHF Fast Ethernet Radio Shipments by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 75: Global UHCUHF Gigabit Ethernet Radio Shipments by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 76: Comparison of 2011 High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 77: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 78: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Market Share by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 79: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Channel Configuration, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 80: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Transport Technology, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 81: Global High Capacity Trunk PTP Radio Shipments by Protection Technology, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 82: Global XPIC ODU Penetration of High Capacity/UHCUHF PTP Radio Links, Exhibit 83: Global PTP Radio Market Share by Geographical Region, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 84: EMEA PTP Radio Shipments by Geographical Region, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 85: North America PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 86: Latin America PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 87: Brazil vs. ROLA PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 88: Western/Eastern Europe PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 89: Russia vs. ROE PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 90: Africa PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 91: Middle East PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 92: Asia Pacific PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 93: China/India/Indonesia PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 94: China vs. India vs. Indonesia vs. ROAP PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 95: China PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 96: India PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 97: Indonesia PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 98: BRIIC PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 99: BRIIC PTP Radio Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 100: BRIICMEA PTP Radio Shipments, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 101: Chinese Global PTP Radio Market Share, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 102: Chinese Global PTP Radio Market Share by Vendor, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 103: Chinese Global 2-50Mb Low capacity PTP Radio Market Share, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 104: Chinese Global High Capacity Split Mount PTP Radio Market Share, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 105: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Frequency, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 106: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 107: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Applications, (Units) Exhibit 108: Global PTP Radio Shipments by Applications, 2011 (Units)

8 Exhibit 109: Global PTP Radio Forecast New Sites vs. Capacity Upgrades, (Units) Exhibit 110: Global PTP Radio Forecast New Sites vs. Capacity Upgrades, (% Market Share) Exhibit 111: Historical Mobile Infrastructure Demand, (% Market Share) Exhibit 112: Global PTP Radio Forecast for Mobile Networks, , (Units) Exhibit 113: Global PTP Radio Forecast for Enterprise/Private Networks, , (Units) Exhibit 114: Global PTP Radio Forecast for Broadband Wireless Access Networks, , (Units) Exhibit 115: Global PTP Radio Forecast for Fixed Wireline Networks, , (Units) Exhibit 116: Global PTP Radio Forecast for LEC/CLEC Networks, , (Units) Exhibit 117: Global PTP Radio Shipments, Tail Nodes vs. Aggregation Nodes, Exhibit 118: Global PTP Radio Shipments, Tail Nodes vs. Aggregation Nodes, (Units) Exhibit 119: Global PTP Radio Shipments ETSI vs. ANSI, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 120: ETSI PTP Radio Shipments by OEM, 2011 (Units) Exhibit 121: ANSI PTP Radio Shipments by OEM, 2011 (Units)