Megatrends, software, organisations and people in 2030

Transcription

1 Megatrends, software, organisations and people in 2030 Futurist Marianne Levinsen, M.Sc. Political Science Centre for Future Studies

2 Moore than 7 billion people

3 The new middle classes Africa US India China EU (former East europa) Turkey Estimated 2,5 billions

4 Population in cities or suburban areas in billions World Asia China US Europe

5 ocalypsis

6 Availability to fresh water

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8 Resources and demand A growing population in the world A growing urbanization A growing middle class consuming and using moore water A growing industrial and food production There is enough water in the world Problem with the allocation of water and investments in a good infrastructure to secure clean and enough water when it s needed.

9 Climate and economy Climate changes and natural disasters to much or to little water supply Actually in central Europa in Prague the river water is rising so sharply that authorities are forced to open Dams in the south A serious lack of water in other parts of the world No water = no production, no industrial revolution and no growth

10 m/blog/water-poor-richinfographic/

11 Water supply = security policy In political unstable parts of the world Security of supply and avoidance of political dependency plays a major role in the future History and many present cases dams in Somalia and Sudan that means that others will not get the water. Waters origins the Bangladesh Delta springs from the moutains in Nepal and Tibet ( Dams?) Goverments use gaz, oil, water and other resources as a powerful tool in their political conflicts Securing your own acces to water is very attractive for The government, companies and people!

12 Efficiency and effectiveness are keywords We have to be better at everything we do concerning water world wide Supply protection, reuse and recycling of water Consumption Effiency inprovement and a lot to gain Effectiveness how do we set up our society when it come to water Storing and reuse Its is expensive but so are armies as well

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14 Post war in Europe and US Churchill's famous dictum: "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." (from a House of Commons speech on Nov. 11, 1947) Cold War 1947 to 1991 divided into the Western bloc and Eastern bloc

15 New World Order in 2030 The end of the Cold War in 1989/91. US and Europe felt reassured that their political and economic systems were superior to any other systems. Since then the wars in Irak and Afghanistan have shown that our ways and political systems cannot be installed in other countries with a total different history, conflictlines and cultures.

16 It s the economy, Stupid: Credit Crunch

17 Growth is taking place in other parts of the world

18 A new world balance in 2030 A new world economic and soon political order consisting of many up-coming countries, people, religions, cultures and puchasingpower in many parts of the world A far more complex and unpredictable world where you need to be an expert in culture, political and economic structures and consumers preferences as a company and business person to succeed.

19 Danmark i Verden new economies and globalization

20 India s high-tech centre

21 Globalization 2.0 Outsourcing knowledge work and workers Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists, mathematicians and financial wiz kids Creativity Rambøll 1800 engineers Cowi lastest Why? cheaper and closer to the markets A new world for many that our job, or part of your job is in competition in Denmark, Europe or world wide depending on the kind of job and education and sector you work in. Arla in Poland- Grundfos in Budapest

22 Globalization, speed and strategy A global world and a mix of cultures, management styles and goals Faster changes the only constant is change Higher amplitude higher peeks and bottoms Difficult to make strategic planning Planning in trouble goals shift faster than projects A chaotic world how to thrive with chaos From planning to muddling through More important to understand strategy and goals of the company as a manager or project manager You have to be good at changing directions constantly

23 Planning - ad hoc The world is changing faster and faster Ongoing change in structure and allocations of resources a part of everyday life in modern organizations Customers change constantly, short-term goals are changed accordantly but purpose often remains blurred and distant Planning becomes short term planning and ad hoc decisions as nobody knows the long term goals or the overall purpose of the organization

24 DIGITAL NOW

25 The digital revolution version 3.0 We are in the middle of a real digital revolution that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society. Digital structure and software has become a basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies A essentiel infrastructure in our company and life like water and electricity. Your chances of succeeding very much depends on your digital capacity

26 Investments in better or new digital infrastructures and new technologies is a necessity not an option for both private companies and public authorities. Several reasons. The works and the amount of digital data is growing rapidly Moore efficient crossborder software is needed to obtain better and more secure service in many different branches A huge need of exchanging data within a one sector and betweens different organizations in order to achieve higher productivity and better effiency in production and communication ( History) A neccesary tool in order to evaluate system,, better standards and higher quality standards in companies.

27 The future of software Today to many software programmes and digital data and systems that aren t integregrated Informational overload that blocks in stead of securing the exact and needed data is available to relevant persons in specific situations. The healthcare system in Denmark estimated 1420 different personal digital systems. We have a dream of seamless integrated systems in companies, our home and society.

28 Challenges for Companies Unarticulated needs Unexploited Opportunities Udnytte nye muligheder? Cell phones, RFID - Markedsandele Unexploited Opportunities Udnytte nye muligheder? Google, Skype, Facebook - Mulighedsandele Articulated needs Present products and services Market shares Unexploited Opportunities Udnytte nye muligheder? ipod/itunes/iphone, - Mulighedsandele Served market Unserved market

29 Why innovation Fails? Trend following, good ideas and mental inventions 3 times as many failures as successes Need spotting double success to failure Market research 4 x success to failure Solution spotting: 7 x success to failure Taking advance of random events 13 x success to failure Source: Why innovation Fails, Carl Frankling, Spiro Press (2003) (193 product innovations studied)

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31 Corporations are no longer in control Modern companies are facing a two-front war; Held hostage by talent and under siege by consumers world wide. Where can I get the highly skilled mancraft at the best price in the world (the fierce competion on the global market) Recruiting the bests is crucial for succeeding with new products and processing Understand and motivate people

32 The new phases of Life

33 Six generations: from digital immigrants to digital natives Baby Boomers The large postwar generation, 68-generation The pill, television and radio, the phone Solidarity and collectivenes Born Generation Y Small generation(women and the workforce) The Personal computer and the cell phone Born Generation Jones A huge generation but invisible generation The stereo Old time values but Career and money Born Generation Z Born between the end of the Cold War and 9-11 Digital natives What s in it for me? Born Generation X A small generation after the pill, the first individualists The VCR Harmony, society and respect. Born New Millenium Post 9-11 generationen global citizens Wi Fi (Wireless internet) born 2002

34 Babyboomers born The huge post war generation This generation is much better educated and has much moore money /wealth than their parents Digital immigrant the technologies that they are familar with is the pill, the television and the telephone The first generation of grasshoppers - eat all of it, and leave nothing behind you. Worklife They like collective system that ensure that everybody is treated the same way or better as a senior In the workplace

35 Born More conscious and cynical consumers and employees Design, ethics, idea Anti - divorce, like family values, society is important Interrail- generation A new beginning at 40, 50 and 60 reinventing yourself Status, position and money A succesful life is family, career and leisure all together a balanced life

36 Generations X born The first generation after the pill The individual way- self-centered generation Brand enthusiasts As costumers Generation Jones and generation X Are cynical and very focused on price and value Some are real digital shoppers, others still prefer the fysical shop Workaholics personal succes and status Results and salary Flexibility

37 Generation Y ( ) and Z (Digital natives) ( ) The first on- line and Google it!..information, shopping, chatting, downloading music - multitasking Sharing pictures, informations, products with ís a natural part of their life. Funshoppers and friends, travelling, party and work Without the cell-phone I feel Naked or doomed Personal recognition for what I say or do, what s in it for me! Social networking is a must in life I like to have my personal style and projects at work In Europe Generation Jobless.

38 Digital Natives

39 Future job and future employers! What can this job offer me? Near future possibilities to meet different people, leaders, jobfunctions and workplaces on a regular basis? Comprehension and willingness to understand the things I care for! Children, cats, music festivals, yoga Leaders that can motivate me be my star and Forgive me

40 If you want loyalty - go buy a dog (A student, London College of Fashion)

41 Sustainable Human Ressource at the workplace Different nationalities and generations and thereby labour market values. Different values and religions, protestants, atheists, catholics, muslisms, hindues Different social conditions and family relations The primary focus should be on every single individual with its personal, cultural and professional qualities That s creates a good place to work.

42 Globalization and the workforce A global labour market, transnational competition and possibilities!! Complexity/control Companies outsourcing of both unskilled, skilled and presently highly skilled jobs and functions to European countries, China, India and Vietnam. Digital means of communication and problemsolving the world is my backyard A growing need for transnational regulation of minimum wage, conditions of work.

43 The networked person A fast growing number of people Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city trains and motorway service stations - always on the run from one place to another Decisionmaking and problemsolving on laptop computer, I-phone, a cell phone and a Black Berry for s Transnational in their ways of thinking, working and expecting the world to be the same. Corporations and nations cannot control them any longer

44 2020 -Globalization, speed and strategy A global world with many different cultures to understand and adjust to The global labour market Digital devices help us to work, make decisions, communicate and solve problems regardless of whether we live and work in Denmark or India. The only constant is a change in corporate goals, visions, ways of working and new digital communication ways, processing and production.

45 The future employee at DHI Highly specialized and skilled in specific jobs (logistical, sales, innovation, organizational etc.) Being able to explain your skills Improving digital skills every day of the year Understand and respect different cultures and values if you don t you are not fit for the global world (openness and curiosity) Improve your english, dear!

46 Continued Information overload what s trustworthy? The ability to work under changing conditions every day( people, places and demands) A member of the future workforce has to be well educated and specialized. But education is not enough. You also have to be very selfconfident and capable of understanding, working, communicating, decisionmaking in a runaway world.

47 Fremtidens Kultur- aftensskole og anno 2020 DOF Region Sydjylland fritidskonference 10. Maj Fremtidsforsker Marianne Levinsen Fremforsk, Center for Fremtidsforskning,

48 People are still people! Evidens is avaible but the human being is in the way.( routine, power or best practice) Experience is not necessarily a good thing, it can 1 years of experience mutiplied with 20 years. Power - Why some people have it- and others dont! Jeffrey Pfeffer 2010, Professor i Organizational Behavoir, Stanford

49 Organizations in the future Taylor still remains the theoretical basic for temporary organizational design of plant and production facilities Max Webers ideal model of bureaucracy still leads the structuring of modern companies Why has nothing changes during the last 100 years in a global runaway world? Power in organizations Building the new organizations requires new building materials!

50 Organizations in the future W.L. Gore Follow your own ideas All work project work Self management Very clear goals to be met by surviving project and ideas Google 10% own time find something you want to pursue Many innovational pipelines at the same time Big rewards to finders of new, sustainable ideas Whole Food Teams and track records in teams Decentralized purchase of inventory and special offers Management via peers

51 How do we create an organization for the future? Set your employees free and downgrade hierarchies creates raising productivity Make innovation a natural part of daily routines (Google: 10% is your own time) New models of management measuring productivity and performance instead of personality and likings (W.L. Gore ) Flat, fast and flexible organizations Be ready to grasp new opportunities sleep with your boots on

52 Who eats who? Darwin: Survival of the fittest Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast People plays a vital role in keeping the company fit

53 uk.fremforsk.dk Marianne Levinsen Fremforsk - Centre for future studies Kannikegade Århus C E:mlev@fremforsk.dk T M