The future: Megatrends and people

Transcription

1 The future: Megatrends and people Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist Centre for Future Studies

2 Cities in the future The interweaved city a mixture of functions The company without office space The new nomads travelling from oasis to oasis The work day and leisure day as a long fractal route

3 The networked person: The new nomads Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city trains and motorway service station always on the move Juggling with a laptop computer, a smartphone and a mega size ipad In touch with people, he or she do no longer regularly bump into in a corridor Take decisions all the time guided by the knowledge base they have access to

4 New era new Zeistgeist: Futurisme From Retro knitting, baking, growing your own herbs and vegetables since 2008 To Futurisme: New thinking and perspective New optimism Belief in the future New digital structures and new technology will give growth and prosperity in society and in companies in the future

5 Population in cities or suburban areas in billions World Asia China US Europe

6 Moore than 7 billion people

7 Africa US India China Vietnam Thailand EU (East) Turkey Mexico East-Afrika The new middle classes approx. 2,5 billions

8 The growing Global Middle Class 2030 Source : OECD Homi Kharas

9 Revitalizing cities Gentrification old city centers and old industrial quarters being changed to attractive city appartments for young urban professionals Manhattan, Brooklyn, Berlin, London, Lyon, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo..etc Young families tend to stay in the city with their children becoming a part of the revival process of modern bigger cities Infrastructural renewal of water supply, heating and sewers New tendency: Revitalizing the suburban centers

10 Wearables already i many forms and shapes

11

12 Self driving Trucks and Lorries 75% of all vehicles automatic in 2040 (Wired)

13

14 The digital revolution version 3.0 We are in the middle of a real digital revolution that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society Digital structure and software has become a basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies A essential infrastructure in daily life like water and electricity Your chances of succeeding depends very much on your digital capacity

15 New Technology Three steps A: Doing the old in at new way Combustion engine instead of a steam engine Computers calculating large mathematic formulas B: Doing something new that was prior not possible Word processers, PC, spreadsheet, photos, the Internet, video, automation, production robots C: Society change Suburbs, New distribution of the manufacturing process, Globalization Robots artificial intelligence, 3D printers, New ways of manufacturing

16 THE PRICE OF OIL Dependency of uconventional oil and shale gas

17 The world population: Changing shape

18 The world economy will continue to grow

19 World Trade grows faster than World GNP Sources: MIRAGE database / World Bank database, UNCTAD, IMF WEO database

20 New criticism r > g The rate of return on capital is generally higher than the rate of economic growth Capital is built on more than a decade of research by Mr Piketty. The evolution of inequality since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Private wealth dwarfed national income. Only the chaos of the first and second world wars and the Depression disrupted this pattern. But the shocks of the early 20th century have faded and wealth is now reasserting itself.

21

22 Recycling and cradle to cradle Coming to a city near you! Green roofs and green walls But the real interesting idea is the reuse of buildings be reusing all the materials from a demolished building Concrete is not CO2 neutral so reuse can green the image of concrete It makes the building process in inner cities more demanding and complicated

23

24 WHO EATS WHO? Listen to Darwin: Survival of the Fittest Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast Managers plays a vital role in keeping the company fit

25 uk.fremforsk.dk Jesper Bo Jensen Fremforsk - centre for future studies Balticagade 15, st. th Århus C E jbj@fremforsk.dk T M