DESIGNING FUTURE SCENARIOS

Transcription

1 DESIGNING FUTURE SCENARIOS Approaches and Positioning of Scenario Building into the Design Process Danila Zindato Dept. of Design Politecnico di Milano Turku

2 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES Future Studies analyze changes in socio-technological perspective to help us shape our images of the future. Therefore, we may look at Future Studies to understand the change in design and to draw the future perspectives for design. (Irmark O., 2013)

3 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES Future Studies Future studies are seen as an activity more oriented to macroscale that occurs in advance of actual outcomes. Design Discipline Design is seen as the manipulation of visual or tangible aspects of physical matter at the point of output. Common tools Scenarios Trends Analysis Mind maps Matrix Stories (Celi M., 2013)

4 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES focus Design Future Studies Focus: Scenario as a tool (from a designer s point of view) What is the target of this study?. Identify the main differencies between design and future studies in the use of future scenarios. Identify the position of the scenarios use within a design process

5 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES architecture of scenarios how the world will be if this scenario happen? vision how we can implement this vision? proposal SCENARIO motivation why this scenarios is relevant? Masini B.E. (1973), Why future studies?, Grey Seal, London

6 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Common architecture but different approaches? How it is possible to identify them? Case studies analysis 1. GBN Hardware Retailing (FS) 2.Barilla Food Trends 2030 (FS) 3. GBN Scenarios for Fiat (FS) 4. Lancia Dialogos (D) 5. Philips Food Probes (D) 6. Indesit Eldomat (D)

7 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Main points analysed: 1. Scale macroscale / microscale 2. Time horizon long time / short time 3. Materialization

8 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 2006 Target: definition of possible scenarios for the hardware industry to prioritize strategic options Time horizon: years Scale: macro Scenarios focused on an industry sector evolution GBN Hardware Retailing Output / kind of materialization: 4 different scenarios (narrated by polarity map, written stories + evocative img) «Safety Rules» based on moderate economic growth «Mi casa en MI casa» focused on tech and global competition «Feng Shui» focused on technology slow down «Scared Simple» based on economic depression

9 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 2012 Target: definition of a possible scenario for food in 2030 Time horizon: 20 years Scale: macro trends analysis about food in a global way Barilla Food Trends 2030 Output / kind of materialization: Trends evolution and implication (social food / accessible food / natural food / fusion food / food at home and out ) materialized through infographic and written report for communication and dissemination

10 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 1995 Target: definition of possible scenarios into the transportation sector for the 2000 GBN Scenarios for Fiat Time horizon: 5 years Scale: macro Scenarios focused on economics and socio-technological aspects and on the evolution of a sector Output / kind of materialization: 3 different scenarios (narrated by written stories) «Me and my group» focused on the social differences «Me and my link» focused on technologies «Me and my life» focused on the quality of life

11 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 1998 Target: design of a new dream car for Fiat Lancia (based on the previous GBN Scenarios for Fiat) Time horizon: 1-3 years Scale: micro scenario focused on the trajectories of innovation for designing a new car Lancia Dialogos Output / kind of materialization: development of a prototype

12 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 2009 Target: identify a futures scenarios for food changes (and to design a set of products related to the future changes) Time horizon: 10 years Scale: from macro to micro from the trend analysis to a defined product Philips Food Probes Output / kind of materialization: Lo-fi prototypes

13 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES case studies Year: 2011 Target: identify a possible scenario related to new possible materials in the kitchen sector Time horizon: 1 years Scale: micro The scenarios are used to to design a set of product Indesit Eldomat Output / kind of materialization: Trends maps and moodboard

14 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES conclusion Conclusions extracted by the case studies: 1. SCALE / macroscale The FS cases are generally more focused on a macroscale in terms of trend analysis and prevision related to a specific sector (generally are used socioeconomic analysis and technology scouting). > EXPLORING Design can be focused on a macroscale, especially in the first part of a design process (problem setting phase) to define a strategic plan. > EXPLORING / microscale Design is generally focused on a microscale to create new products or services. > FOCUSING

15 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES conclusion Conclusions extracted by the case studies: 2. TIME HORIZON / long term The FS scenarios ranging a temporal horizon from 5/10 years and up. Design scenarios have a long temporal horizon just in terms of trend analysis and strategic research, not in terms of product and service design. / short term Design is focused on a short temporal horizon (1-3 years) for product and service design (in the problem solving phases of a design process)

16 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES conclusion Conclusions extracted by the case studies: 3. OUTPUTS MATERIALIZATION / future studies. Different possible scenarios (three or more) materialized through written stories, maps, etc. / design. Feasible solutions materialized through sketching, prototypes, mapping, etc (visual or functional way)

17 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES components FUTURE STUDIES DESIGN macroscale microscale alternatives of futures SCENARIO feasible alternatives storytelling design solutions EXPLORATION FOCALIZATION

18 DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES conclusion a process model interpretative model of a design process Process optimization (tools and approaches) / interaction definition

19 Contacts: Thank you.