The European Emerging Risk Radar (E2R2) and The European Common House on Industrial Safety

Transcription

1 The European Emerging Risk Radar (E2R2) and The European Common House on Industrial Safety A. Jovanovic EU-VRi European Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Stuttgart, Germany Cross-ETP Event Brussels, Belgium, April 2015

2 project Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology Related Risks integ-risk integration integ-risk Emerging Risks? Emerging Risks? New Technologies emerging risks Dec May 2013

3 integ-risk project: What (where) are we? 60 Companies / partners 27 Companies / Third party 431 Persons 5 SPs (Subprojects) 42 WPs (Work Packages) 224 Tasks 222 Deliverables, planned 240+ Deliverables, delivered Final report: success story, excellent management 3

4 Emerging Risks: CEN CWA 16649:2013 Unknown Activity Emerging Risks Known Summarize and exploit integ-risk project results The CWA (published in June 2013): general Guideline and procedure) for the Emerging Risk Management Framework 1. Early warnings - notions 2. Context & concerns 3. Identification of risk scenarios 4. Pre-assessment 9. Communication and consultation 8. Management & decision (treatment) 7. Evaluation of tolerability & acceptability 6. Characterization 5. Analysis (appraisal/assessment) 10. Monitoring, review & continuous improvement Behavior & perception- SOCIETY!

5 Conclusions - delivery integ-risk delivery Catalogue of ERs RiskEars, RiskRadar, RiskAtlas Catalogue of Methods, Guidelines, Framework, Knowledge base, CWA, Economic assessment of new technologies (innovation) Safetypedia, RiskEars, RiskClock, RiskTweet, RiskAtlas Purpose, Innovation WHICH EMERGING RISKS to look at in relation to new technologies WHERE TO LOOK AT EMERGING RISKS innovative concepts for early recognition, monitoring and management of ERs HOW TO LOOK AT EMERGING RISKS new & consolidated methods and guidelines for analysis and management of identified ERs HOW TO LOOK AT EMERGING RISKS new tools ENISFER Know WHO IS THE STAKEHOLDER IN THE MANAGEMENT OF EMERGING RISKS EU and world-wide network of persons and institutions working on emerging risks (the collaborative network)

6 Who is using the results after the project? European insurance industry European industrial plants Organizations like OECD of WEF but also South America (Risk Observatory) China (Risk Radar) South Africa (Fracking).

7 Main Conclusion the IAB declaration New Approaches to Communication and Public Involvement for Emerging Risks From information to dialogue

8 What should be achieved in the future? HOW should/could it be achieved?

9 Main Conclusion E2R2 European Emerging Risk Radar European Common House Industrial Safety

10 Risk Radar (E2R2): The methodology for the clearing house of emerging risks Starting from the data from existing sources and new data sources (public sources, industry, public institutions/bodies, ) recognize emerging risks, monitor them and communicate them to general public industry and private sector supporting the initiative public institutions/bodies

11 Use Case(s) e.g. Insurance integ Risk home 1. RiskRadar for CROF ERI go to RiskRadar initiative (industry view) 2. Use RiskEars to generate See trends RiskSparks exported and distributed to internal and external stakeholders 3. Use RiskEars as a Look at social media (global) Wikipedia-like reservoir of risk information for risk /safety engineers 4. Use the standards, Look at social media (local here Catalan) Analyze sentiments Look at / edit / assess the RiskSpark/ Risk Story KPI's and recommendation section for client

12 ABM for New Technology Acceptance Scenario Analysis: How would public risk perception change, if tomorrow came a news report leading to an increase in perceived risks related to Fracking by 40%? Model result: expected change in sentiments.

13 Examples of Radars

14 South Atlantic Observatory

15 OIPG OIPG: International Observatory of Global Policies for the Sustainable Exploration of Atlantic OIPG USA OIPG Germany OIPG Portugal OIPG Norwa y OIPG Spain OIPG Mexico OIPG Colombia OIPG Angola OIPG Brazil OIPG Mozambique Mission: to predict and evaluate, in cooperation, risks, opportunities and emerging challenges, with the effective contribution of industry, academics, regulators, decision makers and other experts, in the form of a new agenda of international scientific and technological cooperation and long-term industrial development, "+atlantic"

16 Case Study: Portugal Platform 3 Ocean surface technologies CH3.1 Design & construction of deepwater foundations for offshore wind with integration of Conditioning CH3.2 Design, construction and testing Maintenance Systems of innovative wave energy converters CH3.3 Autonomous, auto-positioned Oceanic Platform with resident UAV CH3.4 Design and construction of Platform Support Vessels, PSV, to assist offshore CH3.5 fieldwork Innovative automation technologies for outfitting and ship repair CH3.6 Engineering design of top-side modules for the O&G industry, CH3.7 integrating Engineering CMS systems. design for new generation FPSOs (i.e., Floating Production, Storage and Offloading ) for CH3.8 the O&G Design industry and construction of a deep-offshore aquaculture system Oil & Gas B P3.4(B) Shipping Ship building and Repair P3.2(C) Vessels Platforms Marine P3.8(D) P3.1(C) Equipment, Topsides and under deck components P3.7(B) P3.5(B) Engineering Services P3.3(C) Offshore Aquaculture P3.6(B) A Offshore Renewables C D

17 Case Study: Portugal Platform 4 Port technology and systems CH4.1 Logistic Single Window CH4.2 Introduction of Natural Gas and Renewable Energy in ports CH4.3 LNG Floating Storage Regasification Unit (LNG FSRU) CH4.4 Monitoring and safety systems CH4.5 Flexibility in Port planning and design: best practices.

18 Chief Risk Officer Forum / SwissRe

19 Pushing the limits Managing risk in a faster, taller, bigger world The latest position paper of the CRO Forum's Emerging Risk Initiative was launched on 18 November It is available here: RO_Forum_Pushing+the+limits.pdf 1

20 High-rise buildings are increasing in number and height Mega-tall building require going beyond proven and accepted methods, processes and technologies prototype risk Fire hazard remains an important risk factor, with evacuation getting ever more difficult with increasing building height 2

21 Big data & smart analytics July 2014 Big data = collection of data sets so large and complex that it becomes difficult to process using traditional applications Big data and smart analytics will change the way of insurance underwriting, costing, pricing and marketing 2

22 Industrielle Revolution, Industrie 4.0 Downloaded from GFT - CODE_n delves 'Into the Internet of Things' 2

23 Conclusions 2

24 Sources, i.e different risk radars already exist but, of course, do NOT speak to each other! E.g. DGUV Allianz SwissRe 2015 BJAST-China WEF 2015 WEF 2014 South Antlantic OIPG integ-risk All SwissRe 2014 WEF 2015 Technological WEF 2015 Societal WEF 2015 Geopolitical WEF 2015 Environmental WEF 2015 Economic OSHA 2015 Esener-2 OSHA 2014 OSHA 2013 OSHA 2012 DGUV Lebensstil DGUV Katastrophen DGUV Demographischer Wandel DGUV Dienstleistunggesell. DGUV Globalisierung und Wandel DGUV physikalische Einwirkungen DGUV Neue Stoffe DGUV Neue Technologien

25 Comparison,, analysis and consolidation + detection, alerting/alarming, Company A, B, C Insurance a, b, c, What do we have on the radar today? Public body 1, 2, 3 Country i, ii, iii Social networks

26 Examples Commodity price increases Climate change/increasing volatility of weather Credit availability Austerity programs Pollution Technological innovation (e.g 3D printing, nanotechnology) Terrorism Inflation Power blackouts Health issues (e.g. pandemics) Protectionism Euro-zone disintegration Deflation Prolonged Power Blackout Regulatory Fragmentation And Extra Run-away Inflation Social Unrest Supply Chain Vulnerability The Future Of Medicine The Robots Among Us Toxic Substances And Workplace Underestimated NatCat Exposure Underinvestment Critical Infrastructure Unforeseen Consequences Electromagnetic Fields Unforeseen Consequences Nanotechnology Unresolved Sovereign Debt NotionTitle Air Pollution As Mortality Driver Aluminium Health Risks Cloud Computing Security Collapse Oceanic Ecosystems Concussion Crisis Sports Contagious Emerging Market Crisis Democratisation Genetic Testing DigitalSlander E-cigarettes Enhanced Humans Epigenetics Eurozone Crisis Leading Deflation Financial Consumer Protection Regulation Food And Water Safety Trade From 3D to 4D printing From Closed to Open Business Models Methane Hydrate Missing Aircraft Triggers Technological Change One Size Fits All Regulation Plant Pathogen Threatens Rubber Production Secession Risks In Europe Short Termism MacroPolicy Smart Cities Urban Farming

27 Strategic issues for 2015

28 Strategic issues for 2015

29 Emerging Risks: How a radar, a System-of systems can help? 1. Consider most risks as multiple risks 2. Explore the full context 3. Risk ownership and optimizing their risk and avoid silo approaches! importance of tradeoffs who is responsible for emerging risks? 4. Participation Is risk management, is it an emerging risk in itself? Define rules-ofthe-game for stakeholders participation and use of social media 5. Resilience Invest in resilience it pays! industrial safety

30 European Common House Industrial Safety Three main lines: Conventional risks taking into account technical, human, organizational and cultural aspects Common House of European Industrial Safety Emerging risks safe innovation Conventional Risks EU Safety Technologies Emerging Risks & Issues EU Safety technologies, products and services. personal protective equipment, safety systems, inspection, control ) EU Directives and national standards Compliance and responsibility Safety culture & infrastructure Advanced methods Leading competence Methods (integrated) Tools Stakeholders Stakeholders involvement Identification & Monitoring (E2R2) Dedicated projects Risk Governance, Precautionary and Evidence-based approaches, Sustainability, Education, Standardization, Reporting and management systems APPLICATIONS: Manufacturing, Buildings, Process industry, IMPACTS: Health, Safety, Environment, Society, Economy, Business Continuity

31 Strategic issues for 2015

32 Technology accepted? Technology perceived as safe! Behavior & perception! Focus on technology? Focus innovation? Focus on SAFE innovation? Including innovation PERCEIVED AS SAFE!