Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms

Transcription

1 Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby Marielle Christiansen Magnus Stålhane Norwegian University of Science and Technology

2 Outline Motivation Problem description Mathematical model Preliminary results Further research Norwegian University of Science and Technology 2

3 Jack-up vessel Norwegian University of Science and Technology 3

4 Motivation *from Dinwoodie et al (2015) Norwegian University of Science and Technology 4

5 Motivation *from Dinwoodie et al (2015) Norwegian University of Science and Technology 5

6 Jack-up vessel charter rates *Based on data from Dalgic et al (2013) Norwegian University of Science and Technology 6

7 Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7

8 Current Jack-Up Charter Practices Options: Annual charter Fix-on-fail Batch-repair Difficult to determine best option Obstacles: Inflexibility Expensive Determining optimal batch Uncertainty Norwegian University of Science and Technology

9 Optimal jack-up strategy depends on: Size of the wind farm Weather conditions at the wind farm site Failure rate of the components Charter rate for jack-up vessels Capabilities of the jack-up vessels Goal: To determine when, and for how long, to charter in a jack-up vessel in order to minimize expected total O&M cost. Norwegian University of Science and Technology 9

10 Mathematical model Uncertain parameters: When failures that require jack-up vessels occur The weather conditions at the wind farm site each day of the planning horizon Two-stage stochastic optimization model First stage: Decide when, and for how long, to charter a jack-up vessel Second stage: Given first stage decision, how to deploy the jackup vessel in order to minimize the downtime cost Norwegian University of Science and Technology 12

11 First stage model Norwegian University of Science and Technology 13

12 First stage model Daily charter rate Norwegian University of Science and Technology 14

13 First stage model Mobilisation rate Norwegian University of Science and Technology 15

14 First stage model Expected total downtime cost Norwegian University of Science and Technology 16

15 First stage model Must mobilize vessel to have it available Norwegian University of Science and Technology 17

16 First stage model Must keep vessel for a minimum number of days, if mobilised Norwegian University of Science and Technology 18

17 Second stage model Norwegian University of Science and Technology 19

18 Second stage model Downtime cost of fixing a failure on a given day Norwegian University of Science and Technology 20

19 Second stage model Penalty cost applied if a failure is not fixed Norwegian University of Science and Technology 21

20 Second stage model Faliures can only be fixed in time periods the vessel is chartered. Repair time is weather dependent Norwegian University of Science and Technology 22

21 Second stage model All failures must be fixed, otherwise a penalty is added Norwegian University of Science and Technology 23

22 Solution method The two-stage stochastic programming model is solved using scenario generation and then solving the deterministic equivalent Each scenario represents one realisation of one year Norwegian University of Science and Technology 24

23 Scenario time Norwegian University of Science and Technology 26

24 Scenario Wave height time Norwegian University of Science and Technology 27

25 Scenario Wave height Wind speed time Norwegian University of Science and Technology 28

26 Scenario Wave height Wind speed Failure of type 1 Failure of type 2 Failure Failure of of type type 1 3 time Norwegian University of Science and Technology 29

27 Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 30

28 Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 All scenarios represent different possible realisations of the weather and failure parameters based on sampling Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 31

29 Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 32

30 First stage decisions must be the same in all scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 33

31 First stage decisions must be the same in all scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 The decision of when to charter a vessel must be the same in all scenarios Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 34

32 Second stage decisions different for each scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 What a vessel does once it is chartered, depends on the scenario Scenario n Norwegian University of Science and Technology 35

33 Second stage decision when to fix a given failure Norwegian University of Science and Technology 36

34 Second stage decision when to fix a given failure Why wait? Norwegian University of Science and Technology 37

35 Second stage decision when to fix a given failure weather conditions not good enough to perform Why maintenance wait? Norwegian University of Science and Technology 38

36 Second stage decision when to fix a given failure Or vessel not chartered Why in these wait? periods Norwegian University of Science and Technology 39

37 Downtime costs depends on wind speed Norwegian University of Science and Technology 40

38 Preliminary Results The model is able to solve one-year problems with 100 scenarios Weather conditions at site and vessel capabilities greatly affect results Anything from 50 to 200 days of charter for a turbine wind farm Norwegian University of Science and Technology 46

39 Future reasearch Ensure realistic data Huge differences in values used in different research Verify model results in a cost of energy simulation model Compare strategy with batch-repair strategy Add possibility of sub-leasing Norwegian University of Science and Technology 47

40 Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby Marielle Christiansen Magnus Stålhane Norwegian University of Science and Technology

41 Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby Marielle Christiansen Magnus Stålhane Norwegian University of Science and Technology

42 Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby Marielle Christiansen Magnus Stålhane Norwegian University of Science and Technology

43 Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby Marielle Christiansen Magnus Stålhane Norwegian University of Science and Technology