Opportunities for Offshore Wind Development in the U.S.

Transcription

1 Opportunities for Offshore Wind Development in the U.S. Presentation to Virginia Governor s Energy Conference October 2010, Richmond Tom McNeilan, General Manager, Fugro Atlantic

2 Fugro - Investigates Planet Earth Fugro is the world s largest and most technologically-advanced firm that: specializes in the collection, interpretation, and analyses of data from and below the earth s surface and provides advice for the development of projects based on that data. Has been a primary supplier of our services to the offshore Oil & Gas (O&G) industry in the Gulf of Mexico (since the late 1940s) and around the world Has been a primary supplier of these services to the European offshore wind industry since its inception (> 100 OW developments)

3 Fugro - Investigates Planet Earth Services provided to OW industry Subsurface foundation investigation & design Geophysical, geohazards surveys Met-ocean consultation Meteorological tower investigation, design, and installation OWF substructure installation Example ongoing activities August 2010 Pre-design & design phase services: Subsurface investigation 5 vessels + 2 jack-ups Pre-development geophysical survey 4 vessels Construction phase services: Navigation and 4 OWF locations Pre- and post-lay cable 3 OWF locations Foundation installation 4 OWF locations O&M 2 OWFs

4 Key Aspects of Comments How does the development of U.S. Offshore Wind compare to that Europe What is required for the development of Offshore Wind Energy in the U.S.? Lessons Learnt in Europe The project planning investigation design construction O&M execution sequence Advantages of the Commonwealth for supply chain support for the industry

5 The Status of Offshore Wind Industry Europe versus U.S. Europe Initial demonstration projects installed mid 1990s Regulations vary from country to country Evolved from projects to an industry only within the last 3 years Projects supported by government tariffs and feed in credits Project size and size of wind turbines (WT) have increased Industry evolved from being developer to utility driven Supply chain development is still chasing the industry Current ~3,000 MW installed (~1,200 WTs) Leading Countries: U.K & Germany, Denmark & The Netherlands Sweden, Belgium, Ireland

6 The Status of Offshore Wind Industry Europe versus U.S. European industry evolution Initial projects in mid 1990s to mid 2000s Current 200 to 350 MW commercial projects Future 500 to 1,000 MW projects tomorrow yesterday today

7 Foundation Steel Requirement For a 350 MW commercial projects today The tons of steel required for the foundations for 100 WT ~= the tons of steel required for a nuclear aircraft carrier

8 The Status of Offshore Wind Industry Europe versus U.S. U.S. Initial project proposed early to mid 2000s Of those initial legacy projects, only Cape Wind is still alive Starting about 2008, additional developer projects proposed Regulatory authority (in federal OCS) passed to former MMS in 2009 No federal legislation allowing sizable tariffs or feed in credits Only 1 met mast installed and no WT installed to date Areas: Northern Mid Atlantic Great Lakes Central Mid Atlantic Texas Maine

9 Timeline of Development of Offshore Wind in Europe Mid 1990s - Initial demonstration projects (a few WT of 700kW to 1.5MW) Early 2000s - Initial small projects (5 to 30 WT of 1.5 to 2.5MW) Mid to Late 2000s Additional projects with more and larger WTs Circa 2009 Evolution from projects to an industry Starting in 2008 Each year add 50% of the previously installed capacity

10 Typical Project Timeline in Northern Europe Year 1 Project definition & studies fro met mast design Year 2 Met mast installation Year 3 Preliminary engineering studies Year 4 Project application and final engineering studies Year 5 Project Design Year 6 Project fabrication and foundation installation Year 7 Turbine installation Project financing completed somewhere between Years 3 and 6 Depending on

11 Opportunities for the Commonwealth Leverage the on-the-water assets in Hampton Roads Protected harbor with ocean access Existing at dock capacity Ample on water marshalling area Suitable water depth No air height restrictions Leverage the business friendliness of the Commonwealth Access to business and people with appropriate skills Ship repair, manufacturing Technical, blue collar work force Ex Navy Connectivity with the Great Lakes / Heartland region

12 Opportunities for the Commonwealth

13 Key Technical / Engineering Considerations Differences between Oil & Gas Structures and Offshore Wind Turbines O&G structure use a bespoke fabrication OW should benefit from mass production Numbers & complexity of structures in a development O&G platform (on Continental Shelf): 1 or handful of structures Fixed (often complex) 3-dimensional structure Multiple foundation elements Offshore Wind Turbine 10s to 100s of structure Simple pole structures Often only a single foundation element Structure and installation economics for offshore wind controlled by repeated activities rather than optimizing one-of elements October 7, 2010

14 Key Technical / Engineering Considerations Differences between Oil & Gas Structures and Offshore Wind Turbines O&G platform is 3 dimensional structure - WT is a pole October 7, 2010

15 Key Technical / Engineering Considerations Differences between Oil & Gas Structures and Offshore Wind Turbines 100s to MN 3 to 6 MN relatively small vibration & cyclic loads comparatively stiff structure on comparatively flexible foundation foundations typically controlled by soil capacity large vibration & cyclic loads; fatigue is significant comparatively flexible structure on comparatively rigid foundation foundation typically controlled by load-deformation August 10, 2010

16 Lessons Learnt in Europe What you can not see, can hurt you Subsurface conditions often under appreciated Some OWFs sited on areas where seafloor dynamics create chronic scour Some deficiencies in design not apparent for several years e.g., slippage across grout interface between tower and foundation Will further time and cycles of load reveal other weak links? Inadequately developed supply chain Adding complexity provides additional potential weak links in mechanical systems Costs of surprises can be >>> than the incremental costs for conservatism or using the right equipment Offshore wind development is not an incremental step from land wind The ocean environment is an unforgiving environment

17 Navigating the Regulatory Maze Federal OCS U.S. Dept of Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (formerly the Minerals Management Service) Decades of experience regulating offshore Oil & Gas No experience or technical codes & standards for offshore wind development State Lands Various State Agencies supported by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Primary experience is limited to waterfront, dredging and sand mining, and in a few cases O&G development The joy of being a pioneer is to find your way where others have yet to go October 7, 2010

18 Where will the Industry Find Appropriate Expertise? Where will the U.S. Offshore Wind Industry find upply chain expertise for offshore wind energy development? East Coast & Great Lakes Marine Industry waterfront, not open ocean no MMS experience no offshore wind experience + local Northern Europe OW Industry + offshore wind experience + open ocean experience lack of MMS experience not local Gulf of Mexico O&G Industry + open ocean experience + MMS experience no offshore wind experience not local

19 On behalf of the Fugro Group of Companies I appreciate the opportunity to present these thoughts, and look forward to opportunities to advocate the development of offshore wind energy in the U.S. and the advantages of the Commonwealth of Virginia Thank You Tom McNeilan tmcneilan@fugro.com July