Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructures Safety Gain. The SYNER-G project

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1 Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructures Safety Gain The SYNER-G project Kyriazis Pitilakis, Coordinator Aristotle University of Thessaloniki SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

USA JAP AUTH VCE BRGM JRC NGI UPAV UROMA METU AMRA KIT UPAT

2 SYNER-G consortium 14 participants from 11 countries Duration: months GRE AUS FRA BEL NOR ITA TUR GER UK USA JAP AUTH VCE BRGM JRC NGI UPAV UROMA METU AMRA KIT UPAT WILLIS UILLINOIS UKOBE SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

3 SYNER-G concept and goals Systemic vulnerability Systemic Vulnerability Social and Economic Vulnerability Social and Economic Vulnerability Hazard Event Physical Damage Assessment of Impact Social and Economic Consequences Building Stock Short Term Emergency Shelter, Temporary Housing Housing Long Term Relocation, Displacement Transportation Systems Direct Damage, Price Increases, Business Interruption, Supply Disruption Economic Loss Fiscal Impacts, Business Failure, Job Loss, Reconstruction Utility and Infrastructure Systems Casualties, Fatalities, Health Care Disruption Health Psychological Distress, Chronic Injury Critical Facilities Emergency Supplies, Family Separation Social Disruption Family Stress, Neighborhood Disruption SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

4 SYNER-G main objectives 1. Encompass all past and ongoing knowledge and know-how on this topic at a European and International level 2. Develop a unified taxonomy, typology and inventory for all elements at risk and systems 3. Review and select the most advanced fragility functions and methods to assess the physical and societal-economic vulnerability of all assets, improving and further developing new ones where necessary, considering European distinctive features 4. Propose the most appropriate means for seismic hazard assessment at system level (including spatial correlation of ground motion, site effects and geotechnical hazards) adequate to SYNER-G SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

5 SYNER-G main objectives 5. Develop a unified methodology to assess vulnerability at a system level considering interdependencies between elements at risk, belonging within systems and between different systems as a whole at different scales (local, city, regional, national ) 6. Build an appropriate open-source software and tool to deal with systemic vulnerability, risk and loss assessment 7. Validate the effectiveness of the methodology and tools to selected case studies at city and regional scale 8. Propose adequate guidelines and build appropriate dissemination schemes for all products of the project at European and International level SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

displaced people Indirect & Economical losses Buildings, Lifelines, Infrastructures, Population,

6 Seismic risk - Overview Synergies Vulnerability Seismic Hazard (& Geotechnical hazards) Site effects, Spatial correlations Exposure/ Elements at risk Risk Damages, losses Dead, injured, displaced people Indirect & Economical losses Buildings, Lifelines, Infrastructures, Population, Activities Inventory, Taxonomy Importance Seismic risk management SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

7 Systemic approach Main Steps Taxonomy/ Ontology Classification in several categories and classes Seismic hazard Fragility functions Vulnerability assessment of elements at risk Systemic analysis, synergies Risk assessment and losses at system s level Socio-economic losses SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

8 Elements at risk Buildings Energy systems (gas/oil, electric power) Water and sewage systems Transportation and infrastructure systems (road, railway, port) Critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, fire fighting system) SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

9 PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY & LOSSES for elements and systems GENERAL METHODOLOGY SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY & LOSSES for elements and systems SYNER-G project workflow Buildings & Aggregates SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY & LOSSES Utility Systems Transportation Infrastructures Interdependencies Critical facilities GUIDELINES & DISSEMINATION SOFTWARE TOOLS APPLICATION & VALIDATION Urban Scale Thessaloniki city Vienna city Utility - Transportation Gas network (L Aquila) Motorway in Italy Electric network in Italy Harbor of Thessaloniki Critical Facilities Hospital facility in Italy SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

10 SYNER-G methodology SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

11 Taxonomy: Utility networks Electric Power Systems Electric power grids Generation plants Substations Distribution circuits Macro components Micro components Gas & Oil Networks Natural Gas System Production facilities and extra European supply sources Tank farms Pipelines Stations Oil System Refineries Pumping plants Water and Waste-Water Systems Tanks Water treatment plant Canals Tunnels Pipes Pumping stations Waste-water treatment plant Lift station SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

12 Typology: Buildings FRM/FRMM/P/E/C-CM/D/FS-FSM/RS-RSM/HL-NS/CL Force Resisting Mechanism (FRM) Moment Resisting Frame, Bearing Wall.. FRM Material (FRMM) Masonry, Concrete, Fired Brick, Stone.. Plan (P) Regular, Irregular.. Elevation (E) Regular/irregular geometry.. Cladding (C) Regular/irregular vertically.. Cladding Material (CM) Fired brick, glazing, open first floor.. Detailing (D) Ductile, non-ductile, with tie-rods.. Floor System (FS) Rigid, flexible.. Floor System Material (FSM) RC, steel, timber.. Roof System (RS) Peaked, flat.. Roof System Material (RSM) Timber, thatch.. Height Level (HL)/Number of Stories (NS) Low, mid, high-rise, 1, 2, 3.. Code Level (CL) None, low code, mid code, high code.. SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

13 Seismic Hazard SHARE EC/FP7 research project SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

Seismic Hazard Median PGA (g) Development of Shake-Fields Stochastic Simulation Ground motion residuals (ε) Generation of spatially correlated and cross-correlated fields for ground motion intensity

14 Seismic Hazard Median PGA (g) Development of Shake-Fields Stochastic Simulation Ground motion residuals (ε) Generation of spatially correlated and cross-correlated fields for ground motion intensity measures (IMs) i.e. PGA, PGV, Sa, etc Multiple source typologies Area Sources Simple Fault Sources PGA on rock (g) Complex Fault Sources Site effects Extension to geotechnical hazard (liquefaction, fault crossing, landslide displacements) SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

15 Physical Vulnerability: Fragility Curves - Review available fragility curves - Select fragility curves based on SYNER-G taxonomy for all elements at risk, through: - Adapt/modify of existing ones - Validation studies - Develop new fragility curves SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

16 Fragility Function Manager Tool Store, Visualize, Manage large number of fragility functions sets SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

17 Systemic analysis Each system is specified with its: Components Solving algorithms Interactions between components Performance indicators Interactions with other systems Buildings Electric power Water Gas Roadway Harbor Health care SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

18 Systemic analysis: Interdependencies Impacts Two-ways interaction One-way interaction BDG EPN WSS GAS OIL RDN HBR HCS Buildings BDG D D D D G D Power EPN P P P P P P Water WSS P P Gas GAS P P P P Oil OIL P P Roads RDN P P P Harbor HBR D Hospitals HCS D P: Physical G: Geographical D: Estimation of demand SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

19 Interactions - Impacts Direct losses Socio-economic Indicator Model Indirect losses Shelter Needs Index Health Impact Index SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

20 open_areas1 Example: Shelter Needs (Thessaloniki case study) USE <all other values> church hospital military open area-oaed park park, parking parking school school, sport social sport 2 square university 4 SCD_WGS84 SCD_WGS84.SNI / none Shelter Needs Index (SNI) Shelter Needs SCD_WGS84 SCD_WGS84.SNI / none Low 0, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , High 0, , SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

21 Inventory Census Data, Owner/Operators Data Urban Audit/EUROSTAT National Census Network operators databases Buildings database of Vienna Water system of Thessaloniki SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

22 Inventory Ground surveys The AeDES survey form (Italy) SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

23 Inventory Remote sensing techniques (optical, SAR etc) Land-uses, build-up areas, Building geometry Utility & transportation network characteristics SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

24 Inventory SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

Methodology & Software tools Probability of exceedance 980 ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ ΚΟΚΚΙΝΑ 11 0 12 6 1 7 2 4 19 5 3 Decision Support 15 16 17

Simulation Waterfront structures - H<=10m, Vs=250m/s ΚΑΤΑΝΟΜΗ ΒΛΑΒΩΝ 980 ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ ΚΟΚΚΙΝΑ 1,00 Fragility Models 0,75 0,50 0,25

46'0"N 22 40'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 56'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 23 4'0"E 40 46'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 42'0"N

PGA rock (g) 0.01-0.1 0.1-0.2 23.05, 40.52 40 36'0"N 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N 40 30'0"N 0.2-0.3 40 28'0"N 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.

25 Methodology & Software tools Probability of exceedance 980 ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ ΚΟΚΚΙΝΑ Decision Support Systemic Analysis OOFIMS: Object Oriented Framework Damage & Loss Prediction for Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Waterfront structures - H<=10m, Vs=250m/s ΚΑΤΑΝΟΜΗ ΒΛΑΒΩΝ 980 ΠΡΑΣΙΝΑ ΚΙΤΡΙΝΑ ΚΟΚΚΙΝΑ 1,00 Fragility Models 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 PGA - rock (g) minor damages moderate damages extensive damages Inventory Selection 40 46'0"N 22 40'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 56'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 23 4'0"E 40 46'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 42'0"N Hazard Definition & 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N Seismic Intensity Measures (IM) 40 36'0"N 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N 40 30'0"N PGA rock (g) , '0"N 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N 40 30'0"N '0"N '0"N 40 26'0"N '0"N 22 40'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 56'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 23 4'0"E SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

SYNER-G platform SYNER-G platform Pre-processing

modules OOFIMS: Object Oriented Framework for

Post-processing & Mapping 11 12 6 0 7 1 2 4 19 5 3

26 SYNER-G platform SYNER-G platform Pre-processing Inventory /GIS database Input for OOFIMS Computation modules OOFIMS: Object Oriented Framework for Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Post-processing & Mapping SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

27 SYNER-G platform Building Damage Analysis Satellite Images Monitoring Systems Fragility Manager Surveillance Input Decision Support External Databases GIS Module Scenario Generator Landslides Socio-Economic Module Input OOFIMS Lifeline Module Building Inventory Loss Estimation Lifelines Transportation Hazard Module Validation Module Input MCDA Disaster Management Module Input Fragilities Input Generator for OOFIMS Connection Module for MCDA software Computation Modules Hazard Mapping System Performance PLATFORM Consequence Analysis Emergency Plan Decision Support Simulations Input Output Modules SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

network, Shelter needs & Accessibility Urban area in Vienna,

28 Validation studies Urban area in Thessaloniki, Greece Buildings, Road network, Water supply system, Electric power network, Shelter needs & Accessibility Urban area in Vienna, Austria Buildings, networks SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

29 Validation studies Road Network, Calabria, S. Italy Gas network, L Aquila, Italy Electric Power Network, Sicily, Italy Harbor of Thessaloniki, Greece Hospital facilities, Ιtaly SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

30 Dissemination SYNER-G web portal ( 80 deliverables (reports, software tools, dissemination material ) 7 Reference reports 2 Books (Springer ed.) Journal and conference papers 3 Workshops Thessaloniki, 1 March 2013 Vienna, 7 March 2013 Milano Final Workshop, March 2013 Link to other projects (e.g. Global Earthquake Model..) End-Users SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

31 End users Italy: Department of Civil Protection (supporting L Aquila test site); ENEL Rete Turkey: Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality s Directorate of Earthquake and Grounds Research; Ministry of Public Works and Settlement-General Directorate of Disaster Affairs. Greece: Region of Central Macedonia; State Company of Natural Gas; Water and Waste Water Authority of Thessaloniki; Egnatia Odos S.A.; Civil Protection Slovenia: Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief Austria: City of Vienna Germany: Munich Re USA: ASCE/TCLEE SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

32 SYNER-G web portal SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, March

WP 6: Validation Studies Vienna Test Case

Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructures Safety Gain WP 6: Validation Studies Vienna Test Case D. Schäfer, VCE A. Bosi, VCE T. Gruber, VCE H.