Risk Management and Technology Qualification. Tore Askeland

Transcription

1 Risk Management and Technology Qualification Tore Askeland

2 Why Risk Management Significant cost Demanding technical solutions Stringent time schedule Prevent unforeseen events through extensive and systematic identification and analysis of risk

3 Risk Management and Technology Qualification Risk management framework

4 Risk management framework Risk mgmt. process Roles and responsibility Regulations and guidelines Definitions Tools and techniques

5 Risk Management and Technology Qualification Regulations and guidelines

6 Definition of risk Several different uses of risk : Common use: Risk = Consequence & Probability Increased use: Risk = Consequence & Uncertainty Source: T. Aven (Reliability Engineering and System Safety 99 (2012) s

7 Risk Management and Technology Qualification Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge

8 Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge Example - ship collision Life time of bridges will be 100 (200?) years How will ships develop in this period: Fewer or more ships? Smaller or larger ships? Ice strengthened ships? Autonomous ships? How to agree upon accidental loads for bridge design?

9 Risk Management and Technology Qualification Risk management process

10 Tools and techniques Work in progress: Risk acceptance criteria

11 Tools and techniques Work in progress: Risk acceptance criteria

12 Tools and techniques Work in progress: Risk acceptance criteria

13 Tools and techniques Work in progress: Risk acceptance criteria

14 Tools and techniques Work in progress: New tool to support risk management process Guidelines for how to use ship collision studies to calculate accidental loads

15 Risk treatment One of the project s major risks concerns the (unanticipated) failure of new technologies Black swan type of risk are there loads affecting our constructions that we are not aware of (at present)? Systematic approach needed = Technology qualification.

16 Definitions Definition (preliminary) of tchnology qualification in NPRA: TQ: The process of providing evidence that the technology will function within specified limits with an acceptable level of confidence (DNV-RP-A203, 2011) «Prosess for å demonstrere at et brukonsept vil tilfredsstille nødvendige krav under gitte grensebetingelser og med en akseptabel grad av tillit»

17 Search for best practice within technology qualification Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) DNV-RP-A203 Qualification of new technology ABS: Guidance notes on review and approval of novel concepts API RP 17N Recommended practice for subsea productin system reliability and technical risk management»

18 TRL technology readiness level TRL Description Comments 1 The concept s fundamental principles described 2 Concept defined 3 Concept validated theoretically 4 Component design validated through model test(s) 5 System design validated through model test(s) Specific criteria for each level work in progress! 6 Technology (system) approved 7 Technology (system) ready for operation 8 Technology (system) proven in operation and accepted for use in NPRA in new projects

19 Takk for oppmerksomheten