Technology Roadmapping Core Tool for Strategy and Innovation

Transcription

1 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 1 Technology Roadmapping Core Tool for Strategy and Innovation Prof. Dr. Martin G. Moehrle Mainz, Friday,

2 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 3 A brief overview of today s topics. Introduction to technology roadmaps and technology roadmapping Technology roadmapping exercise Conclusions Agenda

3 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 4 Technology roadmapping is a solid method of the tool box used for foresight. quantitative qualitative patent Trend- trendextrapolation, Patent- analysis analyse Computer- computersimulation Bibliometrie bibliometric/ / mapping Mapping Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse cost-benefit-analysis Verflechtungs- complex matrix Literaturanalysen literature analysis brainstorming relevance tree Relevanzbaum historical Historische analogy Analogie technology roadmapping Roadmaps Delphi delphi Szenarien scenarios Technology roadmapping integrates qualitative and quantitative elements = f {methodological design} and it provides short-, medium, and long-term developments 5 year 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years planning horizon Overview of tools for forecasting Source: Reger 2006

4 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 5 There is a strong analogy between a geographical roadmap and its technological counterpart. Roadmap (geographic) Technology roadmap Places existing in a certain area Technologies existing in a certain domain Crosslinks between places Size and structure of places Crosslinks between technologies Relevance and structure of technologies Distance to certain places Direct/indirect connections to places Distance of technologies (i.e. realization, implementation, performance) Direct connections between technologies & barriers (i.e. R&D expenses) Difficulties to overcome to reach a place Certain barriers that need to be overcome first (e.g. technological, social) Characteristics of the landscape Characteristics of the technological landscape (e.g. acceptance, costs) Analogies between roadmaps Source: IPMI

5 IN-HOUSE INDUSTRY COLLABORATIVE GOV`T INDUSTRY PARTNERSHIP Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 6 A roadmap provides a foresight of developments in short-, medium-, and long-term perspective. NEAR (0-3 YEARS) MID (3-10 YEARS) LONG (>10 YEARS) planning perspectives COMPANY R&D Develop continuous micro scalping Research to develop cavity-free sows Develop improved filtration mechanisms Develop new secondary alloys Develop a melting & casting plant for the future time scale Lowcost inclusion meter Develop an NMP outlet Develop a process for better separation of metal from dross and salt cake Optimize vacuum or inert gas to prevent oxidation Continuous high productivity thin strip casting process single developments Develop industry guidelines on how to pervert melt loss Develop university and industry consortium to examine integrated production system Non-contact sensors that measure shell thickness and surface temperature Develop means for removing specific impurities from melt development path relations From a cooperative continuous casting consortium Fundamentals of solidfloation modeling Develop a non-contact sensor and method to identify and separate scrap Lowcost process for alloy / scrap purifycation and upgrade Means to remove Mg, U from melt Improve understanding of oxidation preventing mechanisms Modify furnaces to improve fuel efficiency and reduce NOx emissions Develop high capacity furnace prototype for the future (pilot) Detector for moisture and non-metallic impurities in charge to furnace Determine/understand mechanisms causing Al-water explosions Top priority areas Chronological perspectives of a roadmap Source: IPMI, The Aluminium Association 1997

6 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 7 Finally, roadmapping helps to move from a divergent to a convergent process: governance of innovation. Year ? Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence?? Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre Digital modulation 500 khz bandwidth??? PRODUCTS RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION Plus: A NEW SERVICE Stereo Plus: Plus: Scan Personal Stock market Road information Super Hi Fi paging Remote Seek amplifiers Local maps Remote controls Divergent process Convergent process Explore Shape Plan Implement From divergence to convergence Source: IPMI

7 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 8 Introduction to technology roadmaps and technology roadmapping Technology roadmapping exercise Conclusions Agenda

8 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 9 Introduction to technology roadmaps and technology roadmapping Technology roadmapping exercise Conclusions Agenda

9 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 10 Technology roadmapping is a powerful tool with a variety of unique characteristics. Technology roadmapping is a process with several steps and several parties; it can take place on different institutional levels. The quality of technology roadmapping improves with the number of steps taken and the care for finding and answering open questions. Technology roadmapping is on technologies, but also on (local) drivers, (local) needs, resources and players. When implemented professionally, technology roadmapping provides a promising & powerful method that helps to improve governance of national innovation systems. Conclusions

10 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 11 Further information is available in different publications: textbooks, journal articles, reference projects & consulting. Guest Editors: Martin G. Moehrle, Ralf Isenmann Special Issue Vol. 4(2) 2008 From Technology Roadmapping to Operational Innovation Planning Further reading Source: IPMI

11 Technology Roadmapping Workshop - p. 12 Chart your route to success call the IPMI team. University of Bremen IPMI Institute of Project Management and Innovation Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 12 D Bremen martin.moehrle and Internet Fon 0421 / Fax 0421 / Contact details