Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Transcription

1 Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty Hosted by Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) Vanderbilt University

2 Vanderbilt University Civil & Environmental Engineering

3 Reliability and Risk Engineering, Analysis, and Management at Vanderbilt CRESP Multi-university Nuclear Waste Risk Assessment Consortium ACCRE High Performance Computing Network Structural/Mechanical Systems Reliability (S. Mahadevan) Multidisciplinary Doctoral Program in Reliability/Risk Engineering & Management 30 Professors in 9 Departments 40 Ph.D.s completed or in progress Institute for Space and Defense Electronics (R. Schrimpf) Institute t for Software Integrated Systems (G. Karsai) Business Systems Risk Assessment and Management (B. Cooil) VECTOR Transportation Research Center (J. Dobbins) Vanderbilt Center for Environmental Management Systems (VCEMS) (M. Abkowitz)

4 The Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation III (CRESP III) Co Principal Investigators: David S. Kosson and Charles W. Powers with Management Board: Craig Benson, Joanna Burger, Michael Greenberg, Cathy Higley, James Johnson, Shlomo Neuman & Richard Stewart Lead Institution: Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee Other Participating Institutions: Rutgers University, New York University, Oregon State University, University of Pittsburgh, Howard University, University of Wisconsin, University of Arizona, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Georgia Tech

5 CRESP Mission Support safe, effective, publicly credible, risk informed management of existing iti and future nuclear waste from government and civilian sources through independent strategic analysis, review, applied research and education.

6 Strategic Assessment Technology Evaluation Review Processing Safety Performance Assessment Re esearch Credibility Processing Safety Education DOE Environmental Management Nuclear Energy NNSA Science Legacy Management

7 Accepting Publics Integrated DOE Persuaded Regulators & Decision makers Technically Sound Base Transformational Regulatory Evolution Transformational Technology Development Transformational Operational Deployment Transformational Public Understanding and Acceptance Strategic Analysis Research Independent Education Peer Review 7

8 Workshop Questions When and what type of risk assessment should be used as part of safety decisions? How should deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment techniques and results be integrated? How are and should risk assessment results be used in decision i making? What are current policies and processes used by federal agencies and private industries to guide use ofrisk assessments in safety management? What are key lessons learned and can best practices be identified?

9 Workshop Observations and Summary PRA is an additionaltool tool for integratedsafety management, not a substitute for other tools A screening process is needed to identify when PRA should be used Development and evaluation of scenarios provides important insights into opportunities for focusing safety improvements Human factors is an important component of PRA and needs to consider latent and external factors

10 Workshop Observations and Summary Communication o and Education is essential and dan on going need and challenge Defined lexicon Training of practitioners and decision makers Clarity regarding aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties Representation of consequences, frequencies and benefits trade offs risk analysis vs. value judgements of risk management decisions On going interaction with decision makers and external stakeholders

11 Workshop Observations and Summary Datagathering gathering, includingperformance monitoring and precursors, should be part of process development and implementation in support of PRA On going use of PRA as part of safety management (maintenance, change management) Independent Peer Review is a critical part of PRA, as well as other safety management processes

12 Thank You! ORGANIZING COMMITTEE CRESP Co Chairmen Chairmen Prof. David S. Kosson, Vanderbilt University Prof. Sankaran Mahadevan, Vanderbilt University CRESP Staff Support Ms. Lisa Bliss, Assistant Director, CRESP Ms. Randi Hall, Administrative Assistant Ms. Anna Oldham, Administrative Assistant Dr. Sohini Sarkar, Research Associate Maj. Quentin Noreiga, Doctoral Student DOE Co Chairmen Chairmen Dr. James O Brien, Director, Office of Nuclear Safety Policy and Assistance, Office of Health, Safety and Security Dr. Steven Krahn, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Safety and Security, Office of Environmental Management DOE Committee Members Mr. James Hutton, Chief Nuclear Safety Advisor, Office of Environmental Management Mr. Samuel Rosenbloom, Nuclear Engineer, Office of Nuclear Safety Policy and Assistance Office of Health, Safety and Security Ms. Leydi Velez, DOE Fellow, Applied Research Center, Florida International University CRESP financial support from DOE Office of Environmental Management