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1 From the Twitter Stream to your Stats Screen: Towards Working with Social Media Data for Official Statistics H. Andrew International Conference and Global Working Group meeting on Big Data for Official Statistics 29 October, 2014, Beijing, China...shedding light on psychosocial phenomena through big language analysis.

2 Thank You United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)

3 Social Media

4 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day

5 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day

6 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day

7 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day BIGGER DATA

8 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day

9 Social Media PEOPLE: 300mil. tweets/day 150mil. 4bil. messages/day 1bil. 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day 75mil. (2014) (2014) (2014)

10 Social Media PEOPLE: 300mil. tweets/day 150mil. 4bil. messages/day 1bil. 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day 75mil. (2014) (2014) (2014) Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

11 Social Media Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

12 Social Media 1. Measurement Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

13 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

14 Measurement: Personality

15 Measurement: Personality

16 Measurement: Personality

17 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

18 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

19 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.

20 Data-driven Social Science: Extraversion sociable, assertive, active, energetic, talkative, outgoing Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Ramones, S. M., Agrawal, M., Shah, A., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The OpenVocabulary Approach. In PLOS ONE 8(9).

21 Data-driven Social Science: Introversion Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Ramones, S. M., Agrawal, M., Shah, A., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The OpenVocabulary Approach. In PLOS ONE 8(9).

22 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive Explicit Language Warning

23 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive

24 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive

25 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism

26 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism

27 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend?

28 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Big Data? Traditional Official Statistics

29 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Traditional Big Official Data Statistics

30 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Challenges Summary

31 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Sources Types Acquisition Analysis Methodology Examples Challenges Summary

32 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public somewhat private private

33 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public somewhat private private

34 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public big somewhat private bigger private biggest

35 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren mostly public somewhat private big bigger Other social media Instagram YouTube Yelp Pinterest Tumblr Reddit messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat private biggest

36 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren mostly public big somewhat private bigger Other social media Instagram YouTube Yelp Pinterest Tumblr Reddit messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat private biggest Search Google Yahoo Baidu Bing

37 Social Media Data Types: Text!

38 Social Media Data Types: Text!

39 Social Media Data Types: Text!

40 Social Media Data Types: Text!

41 Social Media Data Types: Text!

42 Social Media Data Types: Text!

43 Social Media Data Types: Levels of Analysis

44 Social Media Data Types:

45 Acquiring Social Media Twitter Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) random stream (1% daily = ~2 to 3.5m) filter stream (1%; not random sample) search API (180 queries per 15 minutes)

46 Acquiring Social Media Twitter Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) random stream (1% daily = ~2 to 3.5m) filter stream (1%; not random sample) search API (180 queries per 15 minutes) More data provided by third parties (Datasift, Gnip,...)

47 Acquiring Social Media JSON encoding { "coordinates": None, "created_at": "Wed Jan 29 22:58: ", "favorite_count": 19, "favorited": False, "geo": None, "id": , "lang": "en", "place": None, "retweet_count": 14, "retweeted": False, "text": "Wow, where did January go? Was I in Tulsa or Yemen? Or Vermont?",... }

48 Acquiring Social Media Facebook o Graph API o Limited public data o Consent participants to share private data through Facebook App.

49 Analysis / Methodology

50 Analysis / Methodology Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. Words identified from text via social-media aware tokenization. usually restricted to those used more than a few times e.g. 'day', 'the beautiful day', 'Mexico City', etc...

51 Analysis / Methodology Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. Words identified from text via social-media aware tokenization. usually restricted to those used more than a few times e.g. 'day', 'the beautiful day', 'Mexico City', etc... topics: Clusters of semantically-related words found via latent Dirichlet allocation e.g.

52 Method:Data-driven language analysis Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. topics: Clusters of semantically-related words found via latent Dirichlet allocation lexica: Manually-created clusters of words e.g. positive emotion: happy, joyous, like, etc negative emotion: sad, hate, terrible, etc

53 Analysis / Methodology open-vocabulary : Not restricted to predefined lists of features.

54 Analysis / Methodology Example: Sentiment Analysis Thumbs up... (Pang and Lee, 2004) + / - Emotion from LIWC (Pennebaker et al., 2001) NRC Canada (Mohammad et al., 2013

55 Analysis / Methodology All require validation in new domain. (e.g., new platform, time-frame, or level of analysis)

56 Analysis / Methodology Prediction How to fit a single model on lots of language variables? (e.g. 25,000 words and phrases) Methods from Machine Learning: discrete outcomes: support vector machines (SVM) continuous outcomes: ridge regression

57 Analysis / Methodology Prediction Issues with words as variables: sparseness: most words do not occur very often high co-variance: e.g. people that say soccer often are also more likely to say goal

58 Analysis / Methodology Prediction Issues with words as variables: sparseness: most words do not occur very often high co-variance: e.g. people that say statistics often are also more likely to say variable Solutions: L1 penalized fit (lasso regression) Use principal components analysis before fit

59 Analysis / Methodology

60 Some Available Resources MALLET: Machine Learning Language Toolkit Good for topic modeling GUI: Lightside: Point and Click Machine Learning WWBP Resources wwbp.org/data.html Coming this January: LexHub: Language Analysis X social science to get on list: hansens@seas.upenn.edu

61 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Sources Types Acquisition Analysis Methodology Examples Challenges Summary

62 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Heart Disease Mortality HIV Prevalence Life Satisfaction Flu Tracking Challenges Summary

63 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality Eichstaedt, Schwartz, Park, Kern, Ungar, Seligman. (2014; in press)

64 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality Twitter Dataset Studied: 10% of tweets from June 2009 to March 2010 (826 million tweets) United States CDC data: Atherosclerotic Heart Disease Mortality

65 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality

66 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality

67 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

68 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

69 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

70 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

71 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

72 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **

73 Language positively correlated with US-county-level Heart Disease

74 Language negatively correlated with US-county-level Heart Disease

75 Example: County Life Satisfaction In collaboration with Molly Ireland and Dolores Albaraccin

76 Example: County Life Satisfaction education level, income, demographics, ethnicity Twitter

77 Example: County Life Satisfaction

78 Example: County HIV Prevalence In collaboration with Molly Ireland and Dolores Albaraccin

79 Example: County HIV Prevalence

80 Example: County HIV Prevalence HIV prevalence is higher in counties with less future tense in... all 1375 qualifying counties (Beta = -0.48, p <.001) top 200 most populated counties (Beta = -0.27, p <.001)

81 Example: Flu Trends

82 Google Flu Trends

83 Health Tweets (Mark Dredze and Michael Paul; Johns Hopkins University) narrows in on health-related tweets

84 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Heart Disease Mortality HIV Prevalence Life Satisfaction Flu Tracking Challenges Summary

85 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Challenges Summary

86 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Technical Methodological

87 Challenges

88 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Methodological

89 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological

90 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias

91 Issues attributed to missclassification Facebook status update.

92 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100 Representative Sample? Alternaitve: Post-stratification Demographics are one of the most accurately predicted from language gender 92% accuracy age 0.86 correlation

101 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias

102 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias validate

103

104 Thank You! Questions? Big Data Traditional Official Statistics wwbp.org

105 Thank You! Questions? Big Data for Official Statistics wwbp.org

106 APPENDIX

107 Method: County-Mapping 94% accurate map to human-judged intended city, state pair.

108 Distributed Computing approximately 1 billion tweets Too much for single computer system Utilize map-reduce in a Hadoop style cluster: image:

109 Well-Being and Policy => Life Satisfaction (across domains)

110 What topics matter for all counties (that we have data for) in the United States? Evidence for moderation A moderator alters the strength or direction of a relationship Question of external validity how universal is the effect? Daivd Kenny Moderator Variables: Introduction, What topics matter for the poorest 25% of counties in

111 Individual Well-Being satisfaction with life

112 Individual Well-Being: message to user-level message and user-level

113

114

115

116 Representative Sample? (i.e. implicitly maps unrepresentative sample to representative) Fit unrepresentative sample to representative sample results In the end we are validating against representative data.

117 Individual Traits in Facebook MyPersonality Dataset Facebook application to take Big-5 personality survey. Approximately 75,000 users of the app: o shared their status updates for research o wrote at least 1,000 words o share their age and gender

118 Community Well-Being Through Twitter

119 Community Well-Being through Twitter Twitter > 150 million active monthly users > 350 million messages a day often list a location or geo-coordinates

120

121 You Are What You Tweet status update! status status update! update! status update! status update! tweet! tweet! tweet! tweet! language analysis? tweet! Outcomes prediction (measuremen t) insights

122 Example JSON - Tweet { "coordinates": None, "created_at": "created_at": "Wed "Wed Jan Jan :58:50 22:58: ", 2014", "favorite_count": 19, "favorited": False, "geo": None, "id": , "lang": "en", "place": None, "retweet_count": 14, "retweeted": False, "text": "Wow, where did January go? Was I in Tulsa or Yemen? Or Vermont?",... }

123 Twitter APIs REST APIs REST APIs o Twitter App building (e.g. smartphone apps) o Search API o Streaming APIs o o Firehose o public random sample o user and site streams Twitter App building (e.g. smartphone apps) Search API Streaming APIs o o o Firehose public random sample user and site streams

124 Sample Stream Sample Stream 1 % of all public tweets real time useful for representative language sample o o less than 40% of tweets are in English can be useful for frequencies of terms looked at

125 Search Stream Search API Specific to what you re looking for same content as the web search parameters include o o o o o Recent vs Top tweets Geolocalization Language filter (Twitter s algorithm is best effort ) time ranges (limited) more:

126 Community Heart Disease through Twitter Method: Prediction Lasso, L1 penalized, regression Controls: demographics: age, gender, ethnicity socio-economic status: income, education Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Lucas, R. E., Agrawal, M., Park, G. J., Lakshmikanth, S. K., Jha, S., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Characterizing Geographic Variation in Well-Being using Tweets. In Proceedings of the Seventh International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM). Boston, MA.

127 Search Stream Search API Specific to what you re looking for same content as the web search parameters include o o o o o Recent vs Top tweets Geolocalization Language filter (Twitter s algorithm is best effort ) time ranges (limited) more:

128 Who has access to APIs? Twitter uses OAuth2 for authentication Not a username, password authentication Need a Twitter App (and a Twitter account) o o o Anyone can create a blank app Go to Generate API key, API secret, access token & access secret on this page:

129 What s in a Tweet JSON text of the tweet Find a complete list of fields at: & unique Twitter id created date & time replies: o user id & tweet id of tweet replied to retweets: o Tweet JSON of the original tweet favorited & retweeted counts entities o expanded links, hashtags, media & user mentions user info: o o o o unique Twitter id screen name, handle, location, description nb tweets, favourites, followers profile picture & background information!! Some fields are optional!! Example Tweet JSON:

130 Limitations of Twitter API Sample Stream: only 1 % of all tweets terms that aren t frequent enough might not even appear in your dataset Search: 180 queries limit in every 15 minute window each search query can only contain 10 terms

131 Facebook API APIs Free Free GraphAPIs API o o o API o Chat Graph FQL API API Third APIs o party Chat API o Public Feed API o o Keywords Insights API FQL API That s where the data is Third party APIs o o Public Feed API Keywords Insights API

132 Graph API Every data point is a node in a graph John John John John John s friends Likes & Comments John s posts

133 Graph API Every data point is a node in a graph John John John John John s friends Likes & Comments John s posts

134 What did we learn? API = Application Programming Interface Easier for huge amounts of data Twitter has multiple APIs So does Facebook How to use the Graph API to post/delete a status You might want to ask your programmer for help

135

136 Individual Traits in Facebook

137 Individual Traits in Facebook MyPersonality Dataset Facebook application to take Big-5 personality survey. Approximately 75,000 users of the app: o shared their status updates for research o wrote at least 1,000 words o share their age and gender

138 Individual Traits in Facebook: Female Gender

139 Individual Traits in Facebook: Male Gender

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