From the Twitter Stream to your Stats Screen:
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- Bernard Lyons
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1 From the Twitter Stream to your Stats Screen: Towards Working with Social Media Data for Official Statistics H. Andrew International Conference and Global Working Group meeting on Big Data for Official Statistics 29 October, 2014, Beijing, China...shedding light on psychosocial phenomena through big language analysis.
2 Thank You United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
3 Social Media
4 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day
5 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day
6 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day
7 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day BIGGER DATA
8 Social Media 300mil. tweets/day 4bil. messages/day 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day
9 Social Media PEOPLE: 300mil. tweets/day 150mil. 4bil. messages/day 1bil. 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day 75mil. (2014) (2014) (2014)
10 Social Media PEOPLE: 300mil. tweets/day 150mil. 4bil. messages/day 1bil. 100mil. (Sina) weibos/day 75mil. (2014) (2014) (2014) Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
11 Social Media Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
12 Social Media 1. Measurement Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
13 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
14 Measurement: Personality
15 Measurement: Personality
16 Measurement: Personality
17 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
18 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
19 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Applications Largest dataset(s) of everyday human behavior and conerns.
20 Data-driven Social Science: Extraversion sociable, assertive, active, energetic, talkative, outgoing Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Ramones, S. M., Agrawal, M., Shah, A., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The OpenVocabulary Approach. In PLOS ONE 8(9).
21 Data-driven Social Science: Introversion Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Ramones, S. M., Agrawal, M., Shah, A., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The OpenVocabulary Approach. In PLOS ONE 8(9).
22 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive Explicit Language Warning
23 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive
24 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism moody, anxious, fearful, worry-prone, depressive
25 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism
26 Data-Driven Social Science: Neuroticism
27 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend?
28 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Big Data? Traditional Official Statistics
29 Social Media 1. Measurement To what extent can we replace traditional survey-based methods? 2. Data-driven discovery Can we discovery new links with outcomes? What is driving a trend? Traditional Big Official Data Statistics
30 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Challenges Summary
31 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Sources Types Acquisition Analysis Methodology Examples Challenges Summary
32 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public somewhat private private
33 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public somewhat private private
34 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat mostly public big somewhat private bigger private biggest
35 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren mostly public somewhat private big bigger Other social media Instagram YouTube Yelp Pinterest Tumblr Reddit messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat private biggest
36 Social Media Sources microblogging Twitter Weibo social interaction Facebook Renren mostly public big somewhat private bigger Other social media Instagram YouTube Yelp Pinterest Tumblr Reddit messaging Text Messages SnapChat WeChat private biggest Search Google Yahoo Baidu Bing
37 Social Media Data Types: Text!
38 Social Media Data Types: Text!
39 Social Media Data Types: Text!
40 Social Media Data Types: Text!
41 Social Media Data Types: Text!
42 Social Media Data Types: Text!
43 Social Media Data Types: Levels of Analysis
44 Social Media Data Types:
45 Acquiring Social Media Twitter Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) random stream (1% daily = ~2 to 3.5m) filter stream (1%; not random sample) search API (180 queries per 15 minutes)
46 Acquiring Social Media Twitter Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) random stream (1% daily = ~2 to 3.5m) filter stream (1%; not random sample) search API (180 queries per 15 minutes) More data provided by third parties (Datasift, Gnip,...)
47 Acquiring Social Media JSON encoding { "coordinates": None, "created_at": "Wed Jan 29 22:58: ", "favorite_count": 19, "favorited": False, "geo": None, "id": , "lang": "en", "place": None, "retweet_count": 14, "retweeted": False, "text": "Wow, where did January go? Was I in Tulsa or Yemen? Or Vermont?",... }
48 Acquiring Social Media Facebook o Graph API o Limited public data o Consent participants to share private data through Facebook App.
49 Analysis / Methodology
50 Analysis / Methodology Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. Words identified from text via social-media aware tokenization. usually restricted to those used more than a few times e.g. 'day', 'the beautiful day', 'Mexico City', etc...
51 Analysis / Methodology Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. Words identified from text via social-media aware tokenization. usually restricted to those used more than a few times e.g. 'day', 'the beautiful day', 'Mexico City', etc... topics: Clusters of semantically-related words found via latent Dirichlet allocation e.g.
52 Method:Data-driven language analysis Features words and phrases: 1 to 3 word sequences more likely to occur together than chance. topics: Clusters of semantically-related words found via latent Dirichlet allocation lexica: Manually-created clusters of words e.g. positive emotion: happy, joyous, like, etc negative emotion: sad, hate, terrible, etc
53 Analysis / Methodology open-vocabulary : Not restricted to predefined lists of features.
54 Analysis / Methodology Example: Sentiment Analysis Thumbs up... (Pang and Lee, 2004) + / - Emotion from LIWC (Pennebaker et al., 2001) NRC Canada (Mohammad et al., 2013
55 Analysis / Methodology All require validation in new domain. (e.g., new platform, time-frame, or level of analysis)
56 Analysis / Methodology Prediction How to fit a single model on lots of language variables? (e.g. 25,000 words and phrases) Methods from Machine Learning: discrete outcomes: support vector machines (SVM) continuous outcomes: ridge regression
57 Analysis / Methodology Prediction Issues with words as variables: sparseness: most words do not occur very often high co-variance: e.g. people that say soccer often are also more likely to say goal
58 Analysis / Methodology Prediction Issues with words as variables: sparseness: most words do not occur very often high co-variance: e.g. people that say statistics often are also more likely to say variable Solutions: L1 penalized fit (lasso regression) Use principal components analysis before fit
59 Analysis / Methodology
60 Some Available Resources MALLET: Machine Learning Language Toolkit Good for topic modeling GUI: Lightside: Point and Click Machine Learning WWBP Resources wwbp.org/data.html Coming this January: LexHub: Language Analysis X social science to get on list: hansens@seas.upenn.edu
61 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Sources Types Acquisition Analysis Methodology Examples Challenges Summary
62 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Heart Disease Mortality HIV Prevalence Life Satisfaction Flu Tracking Challenges Summary
63 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality Eichstaedt, Schwartz, Park, Kern, Ungar, Seligman. (2014; in press)
64 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality Twitter Dataset Studied: 10% of tweets from June 2009 to March 2010 (826 million tweets) United States CDC data: Atherosclerotic Heart Disease Mortality
65 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality
66 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality
67 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
68 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
69 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
70 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
71 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
72 Example: Community Heart Disease Mortality * **
73 Language positively correlated with US-county-level Heart Disease
74 Language negatively correlated with US-county-level Heart Disease
75 Example: County Life Satisfaction In collaboration with Molly Ireland and Dolores Albaraccin
76 Example: County Life Satisfaction education level, income, demographics, ethnicity Twitter
77 Example: County Life Satisfaction
78 Example: County HIV Prevalence In collaboration with Molly Ireland and Dolores Albaraccin
79 Example: County HIV Prevalence
80 Example: County HIV Prevalence HIV prevalence is higher in counties with less future tense in... all 1375 qualifying counties (Beta = -0.48, p <.001) top 200 most populated counties (Beta = -0.27, p <.001)
81 Example: Flu Trends
82 Google Flu Trends
83 Health Tweets (Mark Dredze and Michael Paul; Johns Hopkins University) narrows in on health-related tweets
84 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Heart Disease Mortality HIV Prevalence Life Satisfaction Flu Tracking Challenges Summary
85 Overview Introduction Background on Social Media Data Examples Challenges Summary
86 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Technical Methodological
87 Challenges
88 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Methodological
89 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological
90 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias
91 Issues attributed to missclassification Facebook status update.
92 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100 Representative Sample? Alternaitve: Post-stratification Demographics are one of the most accurately predicted from language gender 92% accuracy age 0.86 correlation
101 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias
102 Challenges Ethical / Privacy Public Awareness / Participant Consent Technical Data Storage and Analysis Infrastructure Evolving APIs Methodological Word meaning / domains Correlation versus Causation Sample Bias Self-presentation Bias validate
103
104 Thank You! Questions? Big Data Traditional Official Statistics wwbp.org
105 Thank You! Questions? Big Data for Official Statistics wwbp.org
106 APPENDIX
107 Method: County-Mapping 94% accurate map to human-judged intended city, state pair.
108 Distributed Computing approximately 1 billion tweets Too much for single computer system Utilize map-reduce in a Hadoop style cluster: image:
109 Well-Being and Policy => Life Satisfaction (across domains)
110 What topics matter for all counties (that we have data for) in the United States? Evidence for moderation A moderator alters the strength or direction of a relationship Question of external validity how universal is the effect? Daivd Kenny Moderator Variables: Introduction, What topics matter for the poorest 25% of counties in
111 Individual Well-Being satisfaction with life
112 Individual Well-Being: message to user-level message and user-level
113
114
115
116 Representative Sample? (i.e. implicitly maps unrepresentative sample to representative) Fit unrepresentative sample to representative sample results In the end we are validating against representative data.
117 Individual Traits in Facebook MyPersonality Dataset Facebook application to take Big-5 personality survey. Approximately 75,000 users of the app: o shared their status updates for research o wrote at least 1,000 words o share their age and gender
118 Community Well-Being Through Twitter
119 Community Well-Being through Twitter Twitter > 150 million active monthly users > 350 million messages a day often list a location or geo-coordinates
120
121 You Are What You Tweet status update! status status update! update! status update! status update! tweet! tweet! tweet! tweet! language analysis? tweet! Outcomes prediction (measuremen t) insights
122 Example JSON - Tweet { "coordinates": None, "created_at": "created_at": "Wed "Wed Jan Jan :58:50 22:58: ", 2014", "favorite_count": 19, "favorited": False, "geo": None, "id": , "lang": "en", "place": None, "retweet_count": 14, "retweeted": False, "text": "Wow, where did January go? Was I in Tulsa or Yemen? Or Vermont?",... }
123 Twitter APIs REST APIs REST APIs o Twitter App building (e.g. smartphone apps) o Search API o Streaming APIs o o Firehose o public random sample o user and site streams Twitter App building (e.g. smartphone apps) Search API Streaming APIs o o o Firehose public random sample user and site streams
124 Sample Stream Sample Stream 1 % of all public tweets real time useful for representative language sample o o less than 40% of tweets are in English can be useful for frequencies of terms looked at
125 Search Stream Search API Specific to what you re looking for same content as the web search parameters include o o o o o Recent vs Top tweets Geolocalization Language filter (Twitter s algorithm is best effort ) time ranges (limited) more:
126 Community Heart Disease through Twitter Method: Prediction Lasso, L1 penalized, regression Controls: demographics: age, gender, ethnicity socio-economic status: income, education Schwartz, H. A., Eichstaedt, J. C., Kern, M. L., Dziurzynski, L., Lucas, R. E., Agrawal, M., Park, G. J., Lakshmikanth, S. K., Jha, S., Seligman, M. E. P., & Ungar, L. H. (2013). Characterizing Geographic Variation in Well-Being using Tweets. In Proceedings of the Seventh International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM). Boston, MA.
127 Search Stream Search API Specific to what you re looking for same content as the web search parameters include o o o o o Recent vs Top tweets Geolocalization Language filter (Twitter s algorithm is best effort ) time ranges (limited) more:
128 Who has access to APIs? Twitter uses OAuth2 for authentication Not a username, password authentication Need a Twitter App (and a Twitter account) o o o Anyone can create a blank app Go to Generate API key, API secret, access token & access secret on this page:
129 What s in a Tweet JSON text of the tweet Find a complete list of fields at: & unique Twitter id created date & time replies: o user id & tweet id of tweet replied to retweets: o Tweet JSON of the original tweet favorited & retweeted counts entities o expanded links, hashtags, media & user mentions user info: o o o o unique Twitter id screen name, handle, location, description nb tweets, favourites, followers profile picture & background information!! Some fields are optional!! Example Tweet JSON:
130 Limitations of Twitter API Sample Stream: only 1 % of all tweets terms that aren t frequent enough might not even appear in your dataset Search: 180 queries limit in every 15 minute window each search query can only contain 10 terms
131 Facebook API APIs Free Free GraphAPIs API o o o API o Chat Graph FQL API API Third APIs o party Chat API o Public Feed API o o Keywords Insights API FQL API That s where the data is Third party APIs o o Public Feed API Keywords Insights API
132 Graph API Every data point is a node in a graph John John John John John s friends Likes & Comments John s posts
133 Graph API Every data point is a node in a graph John John John John John s friends Likes & Comments John s posts
134 What did we learn? API = Application Programming Interface Easier for huge amounts of data Twitter has multiple APIs So does Facebook How to use the Graph API to post/delete a status You might want to ask your programmer for help
135
136 Individual Traits in Facebook
137 Individual Traits in Facebook MyPersonality Dataset Facebook application to take Big-5 personality survey. Approximately 75,000 users of the app: o shared their status updates for research o wrote at least 1,000 words o share their age and gender
138 Individual Traits in Facebook: Female Gender
139 Individual Traits in Facebook: Male Gender
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