MACHINE-HUMAN RELATIONSHIPS

Transcription

1 The 25 years of the Club of Bologna Evolution and prospects of agricultural mechanization in the world November 2016 EIMA INTERNATIONAL Bologna, Italy Sinfonia Hall MACHINE-HUMAN RELATIONSHIPS Yoshisuke Kishida

2 INDEX What's Agriculture? Harmonization with Total Life Systems Operation for Harmonization, Agriculture and Machinery

3 INDEX Informatization and Robotization of Machinery Autonomous Car Accelerated Performance Progress of AI Self-repairing and Self-reproducing Machinery, Which Was Theoretically Proved by Prof. Norbert Wiener, and Self-Programming Machinery

4 INDEX Mr. Ray Kurzweil Predicts Singularity for AI Progress to Occur Around 2045 Super AI and the Human Being Relationships between the Human Being and Machinery

5 INDEX The Human Being Have to Properly Manage Our Powers Accelerated Power of Science and Technology Can the Human Being Properly Control AI, Machinery And Robots? Proposal to Organize a Special Committee to Discuss about the Relationships between Agricultural Robots, AI and the Human Being in Our Club of Bologna

6 What is Agriculture? Human beings are members of life systems and we can not live on this earth without other life systems. It means that human beings must harmonize with the total life systems. The operation for the harmonization is agriculture in a broad sense. 1 Harmonization with Total Life Systems For achieving good harmonization with total life systems, knowledge and tools are required. Agricultural machinery is one of the most important tools. As a result of harmonization with the life systems, various benefits are brought to human beings as below. 1: Food 2: Fiber ( Cotton, Silk, Jute, etc) 3: Wood 4: Biomass Energy 5: Medicine 6: Forest 7: Beautiful environment: beautiful scenery, water flow, and fine water 8: Roadside tree and flower which decorate cities

7 9: Total good environment for human beings and life systems 10: Spiritual comfort from works for agriculture, bonsai (dwarf tree in a pot), flowers and gardens 11: Society, culture, tradition, good community, heart and spirit 12: Software, mind and spirit accumulated in the human beings by agriculture as the harmonizing operations with life systems

8 Informatization and Robotization of Machinery The need for agricultural machinery will increase more and more in the increasing population. Because in order to ensure enough food supply with limited resources like farmland and water, timely and exact farm operations are essential to increase land productivity. Only agricultural machines can solve these problems. Besides total agricultural work force is decreasing due to undergoing population shift from rural area to urban area. In Japan, 80% of current agriculture work force is the people over 60 years old. To keep present production level, we need to increase labor productivity five times greater in next 20 years, which implies the need to apply innovative mechanization of agriculture. The development of new mechanization technology is needed all over the world to raise labor productivity. These technologies will include electric operation in first, secondly further informatization, thirdly AI oriented robotization.

9 First in electric operation, cars will lead this field and tractors, self propelled machines like combine harvesters and self-propelled sprayers will follow. While only insufficient performance of battery is available, combination of high speed engine and generator will supply electricity. As the development of small motors is being innovatively advanced, current complicated hydro mechanical transmission will be unnecessary. It is notable that the 12 kg small motor with maximum output of 100 kw for racing cars became available. The precision farming and the researches on sensor technology and plant growth model will make further advancement. This leads to further informatization of all agricultural operations and informatization of agricultural machinery. Robotization of agricultural machinery will advance together with the development of AI. Intellectual function and physical control function as human ability will be gradually replaced by AI operation, like automatic car driving by AI.

10 Autonomous car Singapore The world-first taxi service by unmanned autonomous car is started on August 25 th 2016 in Singapore. It was realized a few days earlier than Uber Technologies Inc., the largest dispatch service company in U.S.A, which was scheduled to public road test of automatic operation car in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. This news tells how intensified the development competition of automatic operation car in the world. In this field, at present, major IT companies in U.S.A. such as Uber and Google are dominating.

11 Acceleration Evolution of AI The Law of Accelerating Returns: It was proposed by an American inventor, Mr. Ray Kurzweil. According to the law, the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary system tends to increase exponentially. It is an extension of Moore's law.

12 Super AI and Human Al is getting to play an active part in various fields. - Information search by keyword - Analysis and summarization of collected information - Automatic translation technology in between multiple languages AI begins to beat humans in intellectual games such as chess, shogi, go and quiz AI makes financial transaction rapidly increase in speed AI is learning to compose music and poems, to write novels and to draw pictures Robot monk Xian er and his inventor Master Xianfan A robot monk, which can preach, was invented by a Buddhist master in China Some of industrial machine tools, which have been controlled by programs, can selfprogram their operations AI is learning to observe some phenomena and find certain physical laws from them As above the ability of AI is rapidly progressing.

13 Technological singularity in 2045 Technological singularity is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization. According to this hypothesis, an upgradable intelligent agent (such as a computer running software-based artificial general intelligence) would enter a 'runaway reaction' of self-improvement cycles, with each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an intelligence explosion and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that would, qualitatively, far surpass all human intelligence. Mr. Ray Kurzweil He is an American author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist, and is said to be one of authorities of AI studies. In 2012, he joined Google Inc.

14 Relationships between the Human Being and Machinery We have to rethink the relationships between robots and the human beings within 30 years if Mr. Ray Kurzweil s forecast is right. Regarding agricultural robot, the responsibility of safety becomes problem. When accident occurs, which is responsible for user and manufacturer? Same problem also arises in automobile driving technology. Cybernetics is the idea proposed by Prof. Norbert Wiener As Prof. Norbert Wiener theoretically proved before, mechanical system is information system which has the ability of input and output and it can self-repair and selfreproduce. How to use AI is a big problem in the robotization of Agricultural machinery from now on.

15 Proposal of Founding New Special Committee I propose that special committee which discuss the relationships among agricultural robot, AI and people be founded in Club of Bologna. Club of Bologna was established as an organization to consider agricultural machinery. It is necessary for us to become a leading organization that thinks about the relationship between agricultural robots and people worldwide. I hope that new agricultural robot and AI will become a good partner of us human beings for permanent harmonization with all life systems on Earth. What should we do for that?

16 Thank you very much for your attention Yoshisuke Kishida President Shin-Norinsha Co., Ltd