The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. by Ray Kurzweil. Book Review by Pete Vogel

Transcription

1 The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil Book Review by Pete Vogel

2 In this book, well-known computer scientist and futurist Ray Kurzweil describes the fast 1 approaching Singularity - the moment in an astoundingly near future (2045) when computer artificial intelligence surpasses that of biological human intelligence, resulting in a merger to form an entirely new and infinitely promising (and potentially terrifying) new form of humanity in which our bodies and minds are augmented with technology. To place his predictions in a more meaningful historical and understood scientific perspective to which we can relate, Kurzweil conceptualizes the history of both biological and technological evolution as occurring in six epochs, with the Singularity beginning with Epoch Five and spreading from the Earth to the rest of the universe in Epoch Six: We stand firmly if unknowingly in Epoch Four, on the edge of sweeping change that will come about in Epoch Five, the beginning of the Singularity the merger of technology and human intelligence.

3 2 The groundwork for this sweeping vision is laid by well-documented and well-communicated explanations and examples of exponential technological growth unseen and unimagined in the intuitive linear view of history the assumption that the pace of change will continue at the current rate common to normal everyday human experience. It is this exponential (and even exponential, exponential) growth that makes possible this startling vision.

4 Four central ideas from this book serve as the springboard for Kurzweil s remarkable vision: 3 1. This "Singularity", while not inevitable, is achievable and even likely as part of our technological and biological evolutionary process. 2. Technology is progressing at an exponential rate to facilitate this singularity through the Law of Accelerating Returns. 3. The operation and architecture of the human brain can be duplicated/repeated with technology available or developable in the near future. 4. The evolving computer and medical advancements central to this Singularity make it reasonable to believe that a significant number of humanity now alive can live long enough for the growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain. Computer technology will advance exponentially, in adherence to Moore s Law that states that computing ability will continue to double every two years or less for the foreseeable future. In addition to computer advancements, the other relevant technologies involved in the Singularity merger - genetic, nano, and robotics technologies - will also advance to the point where they combine to form electronic minds that will exceed human intelligence, eventually becoming so advanced that we will be able to duplicate and then upload human consciousness. So, by 2045, this convergence would allow human beings to experience the faster thinking processes through speed-of-light computing while computers gain the programming knowledge to mimic, replicate, and then exceed human intellectual capabilities, leading to what is called the Technological Singularity. In continuing exponential evolution, and as our computers expand their capabilities, they will enable us to physically transform our bodies; connect our senses directly into full-sensory virtual realities; instantaneously increase our knowledge; and eventually enable us to become electronically, if not physically, immortal. At this point, as these human-machine hybrids reach into the quantum levels of computing, all the matter of the universe would eventually be capable of storing knowledge. It is at this point that we reach Epoch Six in which the universe wakes up and intelligence, derived

5 from its biological origins in human brains and its technological origins in human ingenuity, will 4 begin to saturate the matter and energy in its midst... It will achieve this by reorganizing matter and energy to provide an optimal level of computation to spread out from its origin on Earth (Kurzweil, 2005). The book is organized into a logical progression of corroborating and evolutionary-based topics to support the vision of the Singularity and the evolutionary progression of the technologies and imperatives that bring it about. Technology Evolution The Law of Accelerating Returns The nature of order is explored here as well as more depth on Moore s Law. The topics of DNA sequencing, communications, the Internet and Miniaturization are addressed and a rather fascinating foray into the economics of this vision in which the Singularity is characterized as an economic imperative. Given the knowledge is power paradigm and the predicted increase in knowledge central to Kurzweil s predictions, the law of accelerating returns exerts major impact on financial and economic future realities. Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain Three Dimensional (3D) and molecular computing are explained as well as explorations into the computational capacity of the human brain and the very nature of the limits of computation. Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence Reverse Engineering the Human Brain Reverse engineering of the brain is a daunting and key task in this Singularity vision, and Kurzweil presents a strong, documented case study of the technology and in his analysis of how the human brain differs from a computer. Building models of the brain and the topic of interfacing and even uploading the human brain are covered in detail. GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions Genetics, Nanotechnology, Robotics (Strong AI) Genetics is described as the intersection of information and biology and an in-depth description of human biology, DNA, closing and cell engineering crucial to Kurzweil s postulate is

6 documented. The intersection of information and the physical world is described under the topic of 5 nanotechnology the engine that will power the Singularity. Robotics and Strong AI (Artificial Intelligence) are the last of the required overlapping revolutions central to the Singularity. The Impact In this chapter, Kurzweil describes what he calls a panoply of impacts on the human body, the human brain, human longevity and even on warfare, learning, work and play, and finally on the intelligent destiny of the cosmos in Why we are probably alone in the universe. Ich bin ein Singularitarian The Humanity of the Singularity A Singularitarian is someone who understands the Singularity and has reflected on its meaning for his or her own life (Kurzweil, 2005). This section covers the vexing issues that lie at the heart of either and inspiring or terrifying aspect of the Singularity vision: will we still be human? What are the vexing questions of consciousness/ Who am I and What am I? Ultimately, Kurzweil describes the Singularity as transcendence. The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR To his credit, Kurzweil also covers the Promise and Perils of the GNR Revolutions, using our current experiences as harbinger for both the promise and perils of this revolution. The benefits and dangers are intertwined into a series of existential risks. Here, defensive technologies, regulation, energy, decentralization and civil liberties are all examined. Response to Critics In an interesting response to previous criticisms of his earlier work and in a preemptory defense of this work, Kurzweil presents a large number of well-presented and detailed defenses of his postulates. These serve to help either negate or crystallize the reader s response to the startling postulate of the Singularity.

7 Epilogue How Singular? Human Centrality 6 Will the Singularity happen in an instant? Where is humanity in all this? Kurzweil concludes But it turns out that we are central after all. Our ability to create models virtual realities in our brains, combined with our models looking thumbs, has been sufficient to usher in another form of evolution: technology. That development enabled the persistence of the accelerating pace that started with biological evolution. It will continue until the entire universe is at our fingertips (Kurzweil, 2005). The implications of this work, indeed of the body of Kurzweil s work, is vast, far-reaching and undeniably transformative, whether his Singularity vision is reached, is attained in the timeline specified or is simply a projection that does not occur. Kurzweil s vision, his mind, his grasp and presentation of a vast array of human knowledge, including science, technology, mathematics, physics, philosophy and even theology is outstanding and worthy of contemplation. He constructs engaging and revealing virtual discussions that involve him, us, the imagined us, the thinkers and scientists and engineers and philosophers that have contributed to this vision throughout in a successful to demonstrate and defend the impact of this work. That the principles and technologies and breakthroughs he describes in his book are real and evolving is beyond question. Where and how they evolve, and at what pace, is clearly a topic of much scrutiny, controversy, promise and danger, but worthy of study and endeavors to wrestle with these evolutions and revolutions is and will be crucial to the progression of humanity and an understanding of what it is to be human. Kurzweil (2005) provides a clear, if astounding, thesis for this book which expands upon ideas and visions published in previous works. Ultimately, despite myriad revealing comparisons, examples, facts and reasonable, logical and attributed conclusions, the future he envisions and projects reminds me of the cartoon about scientists debating the credibility of a formula that includes a step consisting of a miracle:

8 7 (Harris, 2006) Kurzweil, of course, does not rely on miracles, but the technological advances he postulates border on the miraculous and sometimes depend on anticipated technological breakthroughs made by subsequent exponentially-evolved, not fully imagined or imaginable technologies given our current level of technology and understanding. Such inexplicit, anticipated-to-evolve creations are, to all intents and purposes, magic or miracles to us in this context. He covers the topic and importance of artificial intelligence without much consideration of the nearly innate human fear of the threats that AI and robotics pose for us poor, primitive humans of the early 21 st century. Kurzweil is certainly an idealist and an optimist, much preferable in my mind to someone that might be tempted to present the same basic information and predictions as a grim and apocalyptic vision. That optimism, however, is not without some downside as he sometimes simply EXPECTS the kinds of breakthroughs that have fueled the evolution so far but without hard evidence for the certainty of those advances other than a reliance on his own application of the law of accelerating returns. The time estimates, much of which Kurzweil sets in our own lifetimes, serve to make this seminal work of prediction all the more

9 startling and therefore engaging, but there also appears to be little hard evidence for a firm reliance 8 on this timeline. Overall, this book and Kurzweil s vision have opened my eyes and my mind to an unparalleled universe of possibilities that I never remotely envisioned myself. That it has done so, and done it so brilliantly and logically and based so firmly on established science, is a testament to a masterful work and a brilliant scientist and author. References Kurzweil, R. (2005). The Singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York, NY: Penguin Group Harris, S. (2006). Then a miracle occurs. [Web]. Retrieved from