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36 Figure 1. Map Showing City Limits, Pico y Placa Restricted Zone, and Monitoring Station Locations. CO not measured at Los Chillos (G) and Tumbaco (H). 36
37 Table 1. Summary Statistics for Hourly CO Concentrations (mg/m³). Observations Mean Median Std. Dev. Min. Max. Belisario Centro El Camal Carapungo Guamani Indicates stations inside restricted zone. Table 2. Correlation Coefficients for Hourly CO Concentrations across Stations. Belisario 1 Belisario Centro El Camal Carapungo Guamani Centro El Camal Carapungo Guamani Indicates stations inside restricted zone. 37
38 .8 correlation coefficient distance (km) between stations inside PyP zone between stations inside and outside PyP zone between stations outside PyP zone Figure 2. Distance between Stations and Correlation of Hourly CO Concentrations. 2 CO concentrations hour of day Weekdays Saturdays Sundays Note: Vertical lines indicate restricted hours: 7:00-9:30 am and 4:00-7:30 pm. Figure 3. Diurnal Variation in CO Concentration at Centro. 38
39 Belisario.75 logco concentrations Centro.75 logco concentrations El Camal.75 logco concentrations year peak-hours off-peak hours nighttime hours Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP. Figure 4a. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day Hours Stations Inside Restricted Zone. 39
40 Carapungo.75 logco concentrations Guamani.75 logco concentrations year peak-hours off-peak hours nighttime hours Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP. Figure 4b. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day Hours Stations Outside Restricted Zone. 40
41 Table 3. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Belisario Centro El Camal *** *** *** *** (0.0122) (0.0123) (0.0122) (0.0101) *** *** *** *** (0.0123) (0.0124) (0.0123) (0.0114) *** *** *** *** (0.0155) (0.0154) (0.0154) (0.0127) Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 4. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. Belisario Centro El Camal Year-Week Fixed Effects Symmetric Sample Curtailed Peak Hours *** *** *** (0.0100) (0.0109) (0.0085) *** *** *** (0.0114) (0.0115) (0.0105) *** *** *** (0.0130) (0.0144) (0.0118) Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
42 Table 5. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working Days of Effect of PyP on Peak- Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Belisario (0.0126) (0.0127) (0.0164) (0.0142) Centro *** *** *** *** (0.0150) (0.0148) (0.0147) (0.0134) El Camal ** *** *** (0.0170) (0.0167) (0.0169) (0.0167) Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 6. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on Peak- Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Carapungo Guamani *** *** *** ** (0.0116) (0.0114) (0.0113) (0.0120) (0.0091) (0.0091) (0.0090) (0.0096) Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
43 Table 7. Effect of PyP on Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Belisario Centro El Camal ** ** ** *** (0.0166) (0.0167) (0.0166) (0.0124) *** *** *** *** (0.0168) (0.0168) (0.0168) (0.0138) *** *** *** *** (0.0195) (0.0193) (0.0192) (0.0138) Day-Hour Fixed Effects no Yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no No yes yes Weather Covariates no No no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 8. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Carapungo Guamani (0.0152) (0.0150) (0.0149) (0.0139) (0.0196) (0.0197) (0.0197) (0.0191) Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
44 Table 9. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: Pooled DD and DDD Estimates. (1) (2) (3) (4) Pooled DD Inside *** *** *** *** (0.0095) (0.0095) (0.0095) (0.0081) Pooled DD Outside *** *** *** (0.0079) (0.0078) (0.0077) (0.0083) Pooled DDD *** *** *** *** (0.0100) (0.0101) (0.0101) (0.0104) Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 10. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DDD Estimates for Preferred Specification. Year-Week Fixed Effects Symmetric Sample Curtailed Peak Hours Without Carapungo Pooled DDD *** *** *** *** (0.0102) (0.0111) (0.0077) (0.0114) Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
45 Table 11. Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Peak Hours (7 9 am and 4 7 pm) Between Peak Hours (10 am 3 pm) Extended Daytime Hours (6 am 8 pm) Nighttime Hours (9 pm 5 am) *** *** *** *** (0.0227) (0.0228) (0.0229) (0.0233) * * * (0.0295) (0.0297) (0.0297) (0.0341) *** *** *** * (0.0238) (0.0240) (0.0240) (0.0257) *** *** *** *** (0.0317) (0.0320) (0.0323) (0.0340) Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 12. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control. Year-Week Fixed Effects Symmetric Sample Curtailed Peak Hours Peak Hours (7 9 am and 4 7 pm) Between Peak Hours (10 am 3 pm) Extended Daytime Hours (6 am 8 pm) Nighttime Hours (9 pm 5 am) *** *** *** (0.0232) (0.0255) (0.0237) (0.0338) (0.0378) ** * (0.0255) (0.0281) *** * (0.0343) (0.0358) Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
46 Table 13. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working-Days of Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control. (1) (2) (3) (4) Peak Hours (7 9 am and 4 7 pm) Between Peak Hours (10 am 3 pm) Extended Daytime Hours (6 am 8 pm) Nighttime Hours (9 pm 5 am) (0.0274) (0.0278) (0.0279) (0.0273) * (0.0332) (0.0335) (0.0338) (0.0372) (0.0284) (0.0288) (0.0289) (0.0297) * * ** * (0.0376) (0.0380) (0.0374) (0.0390) Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< Table 14. Change in 2012 of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. Pre-2012 Effect of PyP Change in Effect in 2012 Total Effect in 2012 Belisario Centro El Camal Pooled *** * ** (0.0110) (0.0126) (0.0128) *** ** *** (0.0124) (0.0139) (0.0143) *** *** (0.0147) (0.0157) (0.0147) *** ** *** (0.0091) (0.0102) (0.0099) Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<
47 Appendix Table A-1. Summary Statistics for Meteorological Variables. Observations Mean Median Std. Dev. Min. Max. Temperature (Celsius) Relative Humidity (percent) Wind Speed (meters per second) Wind Direction (angular degree) Precipitation (millimeters) Solar Radiation (watts per square meter) Atmospheric Pressure (millibars) Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Belisario El Camal Carapungo Los Chillos Notes: Meteorological data for Belisario and Los Chillos are used for Centro and Guamani, respectively. Wind direction is converted to one of eight dummy variables representing the eight principal wind directions. Indicates stations inside restricted zone. 47
48 Table A-2. Selected Estimates from Regressions Examining Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days at Centro: DD with Off-Peak Hours Pollution as Control. Panel 1: Simplest Specification Peak*After Peak After Constant *** (0.0123) *** (0.0093) *** (0.0278) *** (0.0190) N Adj. R Panel 2: Preferred Specification. Estimates for year-month fixed effects and day-of-week/hour-of-day interactions omitted. Peak*After Hour-of-Day Indicators a *** (0.0114) *** (0.0242) *** (0.0296) *** (0.0330) ** (0.0357) Day-of-Week Indicators b (0.0364) (0.0367) (0.0360) (0.0364) Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday (0.0369) Weather Variables ** (0.0344) *** (0.0342) *** (0.0340) *** (0.0314) *** (0.0317) *** (0.0266) (0.0277) * (0.0277) *** (0.0277) Temperature Temperature 2 Temperature 3 Temperature 4 Solar Radiation c (Solar Radiation) 2 (Solar Radiation) 3 (Solar Radiation) 4 Relative Humidity (Relative Humidity) 2 (Relative Humidity) * (0.3540) * (0.0366) * (0.0016) (0.0000) * (0.0193) * (0.0067) * (0.0009) * (0.0000) ** (0.0140) ** (0.0004) * (0.0000) 48
49 Table A-2. (Continued) (Relative Humidity) 4 Precipitation Precipitation 2 Precipitation 3 Precipitation 4 Precipitation Dummy Atmospheric Pressure Wind Speed (interacted with wind direction) N NE E SE S SW W (0.0000) ** (0.0189) (0.0059) (0.0006) (0.0000) (0.0113) * (0.0075) (0.1547) (0.1603) (0.1579) (0.1481) (0.1407) (0.1726) ** (0.2845) N Adj. R Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. a 6 am is the reference time. b Monday is the reference day. c Solar radiation is rescaled by dividing by 100. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p< NW (Wind Speed) 2 (interacted with wind direction) N NE E SE S SW W NW (Wind Speed) 3 (interacted with wind direction) N NE E SE ** (0.2476) (0.1006) (0.1050) (0.1035) (0.0947) (0.0829) (0.1250) *** (0.3683) *** (0.2775) * (0.0278) (0.0286) * (0.0278) * (0.0264) S SW W NW (Wind Speed) 4 (interacted with wind direction) N NE E SE S SW W NW Constant * (0.0208) (0.0372) *** (0.1798) *** (0.1207) * (0.0027) (0.0027) * (0.0026) * (0.0026) (0.0019) (0.0038) ** (0.0280) *** (0.0171) (5.6832)
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