Alberta s Economic Horizon

Transcription

1 Overview February 9th, 2017; h; Sutton Place Hotel, Edmonton Edited and Compiled by Matthew Cox and Mavin Kaur The Alberta Economy has had a rough ride over the last couple of years, but ask any economist what lies ahead and the responses will likely vary. This is the second Economic Summit in two years for the Edmonton FMI Chapter with the first held in a contrasting, prosperous economic period for the province. This session will address questions such as: Will the price of oil continue to recover or stay flat? Will employment prospects improve? How will the new carbon tax policies filter through the economy between the net payers and the net beneficiaries? What will happen on the investment side? Will Alberta s leading environmental stewardship policies help or hurt our ability to compete? And how will other new policies like a new tax credit for small business contribute to economic recovery and diversification? This is an opportunity to hear from Alberta s economic leaders in the public sector, as well as a chance to hear an academic perspective. The panel members will answer audience questions at the end of the session. The panel members and moderator for this morning include: Moderator: Robert Ascah, Fellow, Institute for Public Economics Cathy Rothrock, Alberta's Chief Economist John Rose, City of Edmonton's Chief Economist Barry Scholnick, Professor, University of Alberta Economics Kevin Taft, Best-selling Author, Consultant, Speaker and former Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party Toby Schneider, Executive Director, Alberta Economic Development & Trade Your Host For this Morning FMI Edmonton Chapter (fmi.ca/chapters/edmonton) Serving public sector financial officers, administrators and managers with financial responsibilities, the Financial Management Institute of Canada (FMI) provides this forum, offering its members excellent services and programs in all areas of government financial management. One of 14 coast-to-coast chapters, the FMI Edmonton Chapter provides an opportunity for networking and professional exchange within the financial community, and for professional development within a local context. Table of Context Biographies... 2 The Program and How to Sli.do a Question... 5 Upcoming and Past FMI Events... 6 Economic Trends Statistics... 7 Sierra Systems: Microsoft Dynamics 365 Event... 8 P. 1 version: 8-Feb-17

2 Your Speakers for this Morning Robert Ascah Moderator, Principal, Albertarecessionwatch.com Robert Ascah holds degrees in Commerce and Public Administration (M.A) from Carleton University and completed his doctorate in political science at the University of Alberta in Before his appointment as Director of the Institute for Public Economics in 2009, he worked for the Alberta public service and in 1996, he joined Alberta Treasury Branches. He is now a Fellow at the Institute and is a frequent commentator on Alberta politics and economics. He lives in Edmonton with his wife Linda and two cats Koko and Rajah. He has recently launched Albertarecessionwatch.com a website created to explore Alberta s unfolding recession. Barry Scholnick Professor of business at the University of Alberta Barry Scholnick is a Professor of Business at the University of Alberta, School of Business. He received his PhD in Economics at the University of Cambridge. His research interests include Household Finance and International Business. His research has been published in journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Business Studies, the Journal of Business, and the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Summary Highlights for Barry s Presentation: He was formerly on the editorial board of the Journal of Banking and Finance. He is a multiple winner of teaching awards at the MBA, EMBA and B.Com levels. He is currently the Director of the MBA Specialization in International Business at the University of Alberta, School of Business. This presentation will examine various external economic and political influences on Alberta. It will examine US influences from the administration of President Trump and the US Federal Reserve, as well as influences from the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada. It will also examine other global influences on Alberta, such as developments in the world market for oil. Thank you to our Sponsor Governments can help an economy weather the storms of uncertainty. To do this they need systems, knowledge, and trusted partners. For over 50 years, Sierra Systems has worked as a strategic partner throughout Canada to a variety of public sector and commercial clients. Sierra Systems is proud to sponsor this Edmonton FMI Chapter event. A prime example of Sierra Systems thought leadership is the complimentary session taking place February 14. This session will explore how the newly released Microsoft Dynamics 365 solution may change how products, services, and information are delivered and managed by organization wide users. Registration is free and currently open at For more information contact Craig Coward, CraigCoward@SierraSystems.com. Craig is also at the conference and can answer your questions as well. P. 2 version: 8-Feb-17

3 Your Speakers for this Morning, continued. Catherine Rothrock Provincial Chief Economist Summary Highlights for Catherine s presentation: Catherine Rothrock is the Chief Economist for the Government of Alberta. Her team analyzes economic trends and develops forecasts to support budget and fiscal planning for the government. Catherine started her career in the energy sector in Calgary, working as an analyst for Enron, UBS Warburg Energy, and Purvin & Gertz, an oil and gas consulting firm. After spending three years working with NGOs in Mozambique, Catherine joined Alberta Energy as a senior analyst, where she studied oil markets and developed the oil price forecast. She moved to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance in 2011 as manager in the Economics, Demography, and Public Finance branch before serving as the Deputy Chief Economist. Catherine holds a Master's degree in economics from the University of Guelph and a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Alberta. Catherine will be speaking about current trends and the outlook for Alberta s economy. John Rose Chief Economist for City of Edmonton John is a seasoned economist with over 30 years experience in economic analysis, forecasting and consulting to private and public sector organizations. Before joining the City of Edmonton in 2010 he was Director of Economics with PricewaterhouseCoopers in Toronto. Prior to this he held various positions with IHS Global Insight, Deloitte & Touche and Standard & Poor s. John also served with the Canadian Foreign Service in Europe and Asia where he focused on trade development and investment promotion. John appears regularly as an economic commentator on CBC radio and TV, Global TV, The Edmonton Journal and other various media outlets. He is a member of the Canadian Association for Business Economics and the Economics Society of Northern Alberta where he serves on the Board. John holds a BA (Honours), Economics from the University of Waterloo and Masters, Economics from the University of Toronto. Summary Highlights for John s Presentation: John will outline current developments in the City and surrounding region and highlight some the key differences between Edmonton and other regions of the province. He will also provide a medium term forecast for the city and the region and discuss key downside and upside risks to that outlook. P. 3 version: 8-Feb-17

4 Your Speakers for this Morning, continued. Kevin Taft Best-selling Author, Consultant, Speaker and former Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party Toby Schneider Kevin Taft has spent most of his career working on public policy in Alberta, in the nonprofit and private sectors; with government; as an MLA; and as Leader of the Alberta Opposition. He has written extensively on public policy in Alberta, including four books. The most recent, co-authored with Mel McMillan and Junaid Jahangir, was titled Follow the Money, and focused on Alberta s fiscal situation. Kevin has a PhD in Business, and lives in Edmonton. Summary highlights for Kevin s Presentation: Alberta s economy depends heavily on exporting oil and gas. The market for oil and gas is under pressure from oversupply, and in the medium-term also faces pressure from flattening demand because of responses to global warming. What might be the political implications of a gradually declining oil and gas market for Alberta? Executive Director Alberta Economic Development & Trade Toby Schneider is the Executive Director of Economic Policy and Information, in the Economic Development and Small and Medium Enterprise division of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. In this role, Toby is a significant agent involved in charting a path for economic development for the province of Alberta, as well as providing high quality economic information for businesses and investors in the province. This role involves working with various ministries within the Alberta government that have economic development functions, as well as other governments and non-government players in the economic development field. Over the past year, Toby has been working on several initiatives, including the recently launched Alberta Investor Tax Credit and the Capital Investment Tax Credit. Toby has experience in electricity, petrochemical, land use planning, cumulative effects management and various other policy developments. After receiving his Masters of Arts in Economics from the University of Alberta, Toby began working as an oil market analyst for the Alberta Ministry of Energy. Seven years at Energy brought Toby experience in oil and refined products markets, pipeline infrastructure, upgrading and refining economics, oil and oil sands royalty systems, bioenergy, and many other facets of the energy sector. In 2008, Toby joined the Enterprise division as director of Economic Development Policy. In 2012 Toby became the Executive Director. Born and raised in Edmonton, Toby is passionate about Alberta and its success. As a first generation Canadian, he grew up with parents who chose this wonderful country and province. They never took this place we enjoy for granted. His parents instilled in Toby that everything needs constant care, consideration and renewal. This is the attitude Toby brings to economic development. Summary Highlights for Toby s Presentation Toby s presentation will focus on government s actions to date on the economic front, including the Alberta Jobs Plan. He will also discuss the structure of the Alberta economy in terms of where Alberta has economic strength and opportunity to grow and diversify. P. 4 version: 8-Feb-17

5 The Program Peter Neuschaefer, President of FMI Edmonton Chapter, will introduce our event sponsor, Sierra Systems Consulting Director, Craig Coward, and then our moderator, Bob Ascah, who will provide an overview of the following subsequent speakers and program. This is an opportunity for you to learn, teach and share knowledge about the Alberta economy. After our last speaker presentation, all of our presenters will return to the stage for a panel discussion and an open mic session. This is your chance to ask this knowledgeable group of individuals question on Alberta s economic horizon. For those who are a bit shy, be sure to use our Sli.do feature (instructions below). Times and order of presentations are approximate and may be changed without notice. Time 07:45-08:30h 08:30-08:35h 08:35-08:40h 08:40-08:55h 08:55-09:10h 09: h 09:40-10:00h 10:00-10:20h 10:25-10:35h 10:40-10:55h 10:55-11:15h Activity Registration, networking and breakfast Opening, welcome from the FMI Edmonton Chapter President, Peter Neuschaefer Welcome from event sponsor Sierra Systems Consulting Director, Craig Coward Opening remarks, topic introduction and introduce first presenter, Moderator - Bob Ascah Global Economic by University of Alberta Professor, Barry Scholnick Provincial overview of the economy by Alberta s Chief Economist, Catherine Rothrock Local economic overview of the Edmonton Capital Region by City of Edmonton s Chief Economist, John Rose Coffee Break A look at Alberta s economic dependencies, political implications and the influence of global warming by Kevin Taft Provincial government response to Alberta s economic challenges by Toby Schneider, Executive Director from the Ministry of Economic Trade and Development Q&A 11:15h Closing remarks and end of event by Chapter President, Peter Neuschaefer Sli.do a Question... Do you want to ask a question but are a bit shy speaking in public? Why not Sli.do us your question? Please use #9163 for the event code at: Please note that the organizers reserve the right to edit questions for brevity, clarity and good taste. Sli.WHAT a Question you Ask? Slid.do is an online tool use to collect and manage audience participation. Basically, visit enter the above event code and post your question. You can use Sli.do from any device that can connect to the internet. Has your question already been submitted on Sli.do by someone else, or is there one submitted that you really want to hear? Hit the Like button so that the question has a better chance of being asked by the moderator. P. 5 version: 8-Feb-17

6 FMI Programming Year Did you like what you saw this morning? The Edmonton FMI Chapter is dedicated to bringing exceptional programming of interest to our members in the Edmonton area. Date Event Description (Working) Wednesday May 17, 2017 Mental Health and the Employer/ Employee Mental health issues affect many employees with adverse impacts on both personal well-being and work performance. The fast rising number of disability claims is costly and negatively impacts workplace productivity and culture. With early detection and effective intervention most employees can overcome mental health issues and return to work. Employers that visibly acknowledge and actively demonstrate support for mental health and are proactive in the development of a psychologically healthy work place program have substantially reduced disability claims. More importantly the result is a more positive and high performance workplace culture. Missed a FMI Event? We prepare post-professional development-session notes for our members on select events. These are available from the following links: All past events: CPA: Innovation: Procurement-Who Does it Well?: Retirement Planning in the Public Service: : The Public Sector P in P3s: Do you like how we do things and want to learn more about how the Edmonton FMI Chapter manages its events? Want to join our board so you too can put on great events, learn project management and earn massive professional development credits? Contact our President Peter Neuschaefer at albertafmi@gmail.com. P. 6 version: 8-Feb-17

7 Economic Trends Statistics Source: Economic Trends (January 2017) Analysis of current trends in Alberta s economy, with "InFocus": A Year in Review. The plunge in oil prices carried into 2016, with the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hitting a 12 year low of US$26/barrel (bbl) in February (Chart 1). While supply disruptions and falling US oil production lifted oil prices to nearly US$50/bbl by the end of June, global inventories remained near record levels. Prospects of an OPEC output cut supported oil prices in the second half of the year, although uncertainty about demand and the timing of market rebalancing limited gains. An agreement between OPEC and non-opec countries to cut production in 2017 sent oil prices above US$50/bbl oil at the end of the year. The broad-based weakness in the economy led to further strain in Alberta s labour market. Employment fell 1.6% in 2016, the largest contraction since Most of the job losses occurred in the first half of the year and spread to other sectors of the economy. The weakness in employment combined with a steadily increasing labour force led to a surge in the unemployment rate which hit a 20-year high of 9% in November before finishing the year at 8.5%. P. 7 version: 8-Feb-17

8 February 9, 2017 P. 8 version: 8-Feb-17

9 A First Look At Microsoft Dynamics 365 An exclusive complimentary event The combination and rebranding of Microsoft Dynamics CRM and Microsoft Dynamics AX to Microsoft Dynamics 365 unifies the CRM and ERP capabilities of two applications into one, working together seamlessly. Join Sierra Systems and Microsoft for a presentation and demonstration of Dynamics 365, showcasing how current technology trends are affecting business systems. What you will learn at this launch event Learn about Dynamics 365 and its offerings, capabilities, and potential to modernize business applications and processes for both Commercial and Public sector organizations. We'll present and highlight the capabilities of Dynamics 365 so you can best plan your application solution roadmap. Our agenda offers you the opportunity to explore the CRM and ERP functionality within Dynamics 365 with separate breakout sessions for Commercial and Public sector attendees. Topics covered include: An overview of Dynamics 365 key features, capabilities, and complementary technologies Public sector: Use Dynamics 365 to more effectively manage cases and interactions with citizens and businesses Leverage the flexibility and ease of use of Financials and ERP functionality including Grant Management Commercial sector Take advantage of Financials, Supply Chain and other functionality to gain efficiencies in their business Go beyond the traditional CRM functionality of Sales, Marketing and Customer Service and leverage Field and Project Services, Social Engagement Tuesday, February 14, :30 11 AM Register online launch Royal Glenora Club River Valley Road, Edmonton AB T5J 2G7 Agenda with Breakout Sessions 7:30-8 AM: Breakfast and Networking 8-8:30 AM: Introduction and Dynamics 365 Overview 8:30-9:30 AM: CRM for Public sector presentation OR Operations (ERP) for Commercial sector presentation 9:45-10:45 AM: Operations (ERP) for Public sector presentation OR CRM for Commercial sector presentation Questions about this event? events@sierrasystems.com. Copyright 2017 Sierra Systems Group Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy P. 9 version: 8-Feb-17

10 For your notes, questions and observations. P. 10 version: 8-Feb-17