Climate Change and the Role of Conservation in Securing our Future
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1 Climate Change and the Role of Conservation in Securing our Future World Affairs Council Sonoma County Ellie M. Cohen January 15, 2008
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![600 Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning 500 400 400 Today s CO2 Concentration 300 300 CO 2 [ppmv] 280 280 260](/docs-images/86/94640753/images/6-0.jpg "260 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 2-1 - 0 - -1 - -2 - -3 - -4 - CO2 Concentration Temp.")
6 600 Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning Today s CO2 Concentration CO 2 [ppmv] CO2 Concentration Temp. in C F 600, , , , , ,000 Age (yr BP) 0
7 600 After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns Today s CO2 Concentration 300 CO 2 [ppmv] CO2 Concentration Temp. in C 600, , , ,000 Age (yr BP) 200, ,000 0
8 Tom Van Sant
9 Record Breaking Loss of Sea Ice, September 16, 2007 Sea Ice Extent Sep
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11 Icequakes on Greenland Seismic magnitudes range 4.6 to 5.1 Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, From Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA, CA Climate Change Conference 2006, September 13, 2006
12 Photo: Roger J. Braithwaite, University of Manchester School of Geology
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14 Peninsula Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica
15 Adelie Penguins
16 Winds = Sea Ice, Breeding Success Tui de Roy/Minden Pictures
17 Larsen Ice Shelf January 31, 2002
18 Larsen Ice Shelf March 5, 2002 MODIS images courtesy of NASA's Terra satellite
19 Land-based Ice Loss = Sea Level Rise West Antarctic Ice Sheet
20 Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University Glacier AX010, Nepal June 1978
21 Glacier AX010, Nepal August 2004 Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University
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23 Warming Ocean and Lag Time Hurricane Katrina, August, 2005
24 Rate of Climate Change CO2 into atmosphere 3x faster Arctic melting 3x faster, 30 years earlier Greenland melting 3x faster Antarctica melting -- faster Sea level rise 2x faster than current models predict IMPLICATIONS?
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26 Sea Level Rise, Coastal & River Flooding
27 Intense Precipitation
28 Extreme Heat Days, Deaths Up to 120 extreme heat days per year CA Climate Change Center
29 Fires
30 70%- 90% loss of Sierra snow pack CA Climate Change Center
31 Levee Failures, Water Storage Upper Jones Tract Levee Break in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta DWR Website June , 153 Acres, 6 months cleanup, $90m
32 Water Shortages CA Climate Change Center
33 in biological diversity ~20 30% species face extinction with 2.7 F increase ~40 70% with 6.3 F increase IPCC 4th Assessment Final Report Nov Edith s Bay Checkerspot- local populations extinct
34 Alpine Species -- Nowhere to Go Pika or rock rabbit Elevation at Yosemite Up ~ 2000 ft over past 100 years ,800 ft ,500 ft Functionally extinct UC Berkeley, Grinnell Project
35 Drought = No Breeding Chrissal Thrasher Sonoran Desert Phainopepla
36 Possible Explanations Earlier Spring Arrivals =? ~ 2/3 have changes in arrival dates Mismatch in timing between birds and food? Western Kingbird Black-headed Grosbeak MacMynowski et al., Global Change Biology, 2007 Barn Swallow
37 Seabird Breeding Failure Cassin s Auklet
38 Blue Whales and Krill Swarms in Monterey Bay
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40 Humans Rely on Healthy Ecosystems Food Freshwater Wood and Fiber Fuel Climate Flood Disease Water quality Recreational Educational Spiritual
41 CHALLENGE How do we preserve ecosystems in this quickly changing world?
42 SWEDEN end oil dependency by 2020 E85-85% renewable ethanol in Vaxjo climate cities network Carbon tax- 80 cents/liter or ~$3.20 per gallon
43 Australia wildlife corridor across continent
44 Protect Food Web Hotspots and Fisheries Black Footed Albatross Cordell Bank
45 Prioritize YK Delta Wetland Conservation Copper River Site Connectivity of Migrating Western Sandpipers Grays Harbor Bar-tailed Godwit satellite tag San Francisco? YK Bar-tailed Delta, Alaska Godwit with satellite tag Bahia Santa Maria
46 Conserve Future Wetlands Northern SF Bay Delta Assumptions: 1m sea level rise Increased salinity PREDICT species and habitat shifts
47 Widen Floodplains = Water + Wildlife Yellow Warbler Cosumnes Preserve
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49 IPCC 4 th Assessment Final Report Nov Global warming is 'unequivocal'... [and] human activity is largely responsible. The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost. Associated Press, Summary, November 18, 2007
50 WHAT YOU CAN DO Kick the carbon habit entirely by 2020 Make protecting ecosystems an equal priority
51 WHAT YOU CAN DO
52 Support conservation!
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55 Acknowledgements American Bird Conservancy Bureau of Reclamation Bureau of Land Management California Department of Fish and Game California Bay Delta Authority California Audubon California Seagrant Central Valley Joint Venture Cornell Lab of Ornithology David and Lucile Packard Foundation Moore Family Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation National Science Foundation NOAA Fisheries, Marine Sanctuaries Natural Resource Conservation Service PRBO field biologists & staff, Board, donors Riparian Habitat Joint Venture San Francisco Bay Joint Venture The Climate Project/ Al Gore The Nature Conservancy U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service USDA Forest Service
56 Reduce your footprint!
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![IPCC 4 th Assessment Final Report Nov. 2007 Global warming is 'unequivocal'... [and] human activity is largely responsible. Even if GHG stabilized, earth will keep warming and sea levels keep rising.](/docs-images/86/94640753/images/58-0.jpg "Hundreds of millions of people will suffer water shortages, river and coastal flooding by 2020... Only includes data through mid-2006 Extreme, deadly weather (e.g. flooding, drought, hurricanes) will be more common.")
58 IPCC 4 th Assessment Final Report Nov Global warming is 'unequivocal'... [and] human activity is largely responsible. Even if GHG stabilized, earth will keep warming and sea levels keep rising. Hundreds of millions of people will suffer water shortages, river and coastal flooding by Only includes data through mid-2006 Extreme, deadly weather (e.g. flooding, drought, hurricanes) will be more common. The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost. Associated Press, Summary, November 18, 2007
59 Coastal Flooding and Damage Dan Cayan, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Sept. 2006
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