Northern California Megaregion

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1 Northern California Megaregion Dr. Micah Weinberg President, Bay Area Council Economic Institute Jeff Bellisario Research Manager, Bay Area Council Economic Institute Thursday, November 3, 2016 SPONSORED BY Follow on Twitter at: #stateofnsjv2016

2 The Northern California Megaregion November 3, 2016

3 Megaregion Project Partners

4 The Growth of the Northern California Megaregion

5 The Northern California Megaregion drives the state s economy and is highly productive

6 Population Growth Strong in Inland Areas Regional Population Growth Relative to 1970 Bay Area Sacramento Area Northern San Joaquin Valley Monterey Bay Area Northern California Megaregion California (ex. NCMR) Indexed to 1970 (100 =1970 values) Data Source: California Department of Finance and American Decennial Census Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute

7 Population Growth Since 2000 has been Concentrated outside of Bay Area Twelve of the 16 fastest growing cities in the megaregion are located in the Sacramento region and NSJV: Elk Grove Merced Rocklin Manteca Stockton Tracy

8 Moving to a Megaregional Labor Market

9 But Bay Area Leads Job Gains 75% of job growth since 10 in Bay Area + Bay Area home prices 3x NSJV + Truck trips converge in Oakland and NSJV = Largest % of megacommutes

10 Disparity in Home Prices Drives Migration 60% Change in Metro Area Median Home Values Since 2006 San Francisco 40% 20% San Jose 0% Santa Cruz 2015 U.S. Average Santa Rosa -20% Sacramento -40% Modesto Vallejo Stockton Merced -60% -80% Data Source: Zillow.com Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute

11 More Commuters Making Megaregional Trips Sacramento Area Bay Area 64,932 11,782 10,307 7,279 Northern San Joaquin Valley Monterey Bay Area Data Source: Census Transportation Planning Products, Analysis: University of the Pacific

12 Rail Lines Have Limited Options to Serve More Riders Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) Amtrak Capitol Corridor Amtrak San Joaquins

13 Increasing Connectivity in the Megaregional Economy

14 Diverse Industry Set Spans Megaregion Megaregion Employment by Industry, % Farm Other Services 10.2% 10.6% Information 10.9% 8.9% Construction & Mining 12.8% 25.2% 17.5% 12.2% Financial Activities Manufacturing 15.1% 15.7% 19.0% 17.8% 15.1% 16.0% 12.1% 16.1% 21.4% 15.2% 12.9% 7.7% 7.7% Leisure & Hospitality Government Educational & Health Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Professional & Business Services Bay Area Sacramento Area Northern San Joaquin Valley Monterey Bay Area Data Source: State of California Employment Development Department Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute!

15 25.0% High-tech Sectors Lag in Inland Regions Share of Regional Employment in High-Tech Sectors, % 19.1% 15.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.9% 12.8% 5.0% 6.0% 6.7% 7.8% 2.8% 3.5% 0.0% Northern California Northern San Monterey Bay Joaquin Valley Area Sacramento Area Los Angeles Area California Orange County San Diego Area Bay Area Note: Data includes employment in private industries only. Data Source: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages, State of California Employment Development Department Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute

16 Educational Attainment Remains a Barrier Graduate or Professional Degree Bachelor's Degree Some College or Associate's Degree High School or Less 14% 17% 9% 11% 4% 6% 10% 11% 10% 11% 17% 19% 17% 17% 23% 26% 31% 32% 29% 27% 36% 36% 30% 30% 34% 30% 39% 34% 56% 51% 44% 42% Bay Area Sacramento Area Northern San Joaquin Valley Monterey Bay Area Note: Included population includes those 25 years old and older Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 five-year American Community Survey, and 2000 Decennial Census Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute!

17 Policy Recommendations

18 Expanding Economic Prosperity in the Megaregion 1. Make substantial investments in career technical education 2. Re-envision economic development to tackle problems that cross county lines 3. Institute geographically-targeted tax credits for R&D and VC investments 4. Create more industry and academia partnerships at universities and laboratories

19 Investing in Megaregional Transportation Infrastructure 1. Improve and expand service on ACE and Amtrak San Joaquins 2. Prioritize connectivity in State Rail Plan 3. Coordinate advocacy for dedicated sources of infrastructure finance 4. Support investments that limit the environmental impacts of goods movement

20 Q&A

Dr. Jeffrey Michael. Executive Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific

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