S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Netherlands

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1 S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Netherlands Victor van Rij Ministry OCW - Netherlands Presentation for TIP- RIHR OECD workshop Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting September 2008

2 S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Position Foresight and Horizon scanning in the R&D cycle Horizon scanning Possible systematic approach to influence the research agenda to future societal challenges and scientific opportunities

3 International New insight New technology Human resources Expectations R&D PROGRAM PRIORITY SETTING AND DESIGN EXECUTION R&D PROGRAMS International science & (scientific) education Research programmingcyclus R&D OUTPUT New insight New technology Applications Solutions Experts NEW R&D QUESTIONS CHALLENGES R&D PROGRAM ASSESSMENT Foresight Horizon Scanning Planning Short term Long term Problems & Opportunities Society Economy

4 Public Funds for Research Netherlands 3 to 4 billion a year 77 % basic or institutional funding 23 % project - program funding Foresight and Horizon scanning supports external and internal decisions on the questions to answer by R&D

5 S&T Foresight in the Netherlands Societal oriented thematic S&T foresight (COS-Min Ed Cult Science - others) : ocean farming, key technologies, health and nature, water management, energy, bio-fuels, food and health, data mining etc Science oriented S&T foresight (Royal Academy) : bio-geology, biofysics, nanotechnology, hydrology, social sciences Economically oriented S&T foresight (Min Economic Affairs) : Technology radar, Dynamo

6 Reasons for the S&T Foresight Development of new R&D and Innovation programs (on themes that are already identified) Priority setting (within the scope of the foresight),supporting decision makers Creating new (networks) on new emerging areas Advocacy

7 Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands Experience former round of foresight Mainly thematic/discipline foresight some key technologies + Good for aligning activities/actors on theme + programming known new themes + some economic oriented priority setting - Ad hoc character - Risk of tunnel visions - Some new emerging issues stay out of scope - Societal problems require multi and trans disciplinary answers and sometimes just policy answers

8 Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands New concept 2005 pilot horizon scan Based on international study of national-foresight Wide scope foresight Horizon scan (UK, Japan) + Better scoping thematic/discipline foresight + Widening scopes awareness on complex interactions new emerging issues between disciplines and domains

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10 Definition of Horizon scanning (or wide scope foresight) The systematic examination of a very wide variety of potential (future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, Also the ones which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, weak signals, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of policies and evidence base (Defra UK) Methods: Literature, brainstorms, different participative processes, scenario s, conferences etc Participation -- democracy ---acceptance of outcomes--- more angles (who is an expert??)

11 Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell Expectations of Opportunities / solutions Coming from: Human action/ Brainpower Physical environment With expected large impact on: Sustainability of society and ecology Common desires Values Expectations of threats/ problems caused by or coming from: Human action/ Social environment Physical environment Certainties/uncertainties/ Key issues/ questions to research needed for strategic decision making

12 Common desires Sustainability : Biological dimension: Health, Survival, reproduction and longevity, ecological environment, biodiversity Economic financial dimension: Welfare (production, distribution) Social dimension: Wellbeing (working and living conditions, social cohesion etc) Cultural dimension: Self realization, level of education, emancipation,ethics, right of animals Governmental, Juridical dimension (human rights, democracy, freedom of communication and religion etc) Good (global) neighbourhood ship

13 Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell 1. Literature Study 2. Consultation of national International experts 3. Identification Problems and opportunities List --- P Lijst --- O Website 4. Evaluation and Weighing of problems and opportunities 5. Coupling of opportunities and problems through creative sessions and consultations 6. Formation of Clusters and connections domains + disciplines 7. Cluster descriptions 8. Essays per cluster 9. Knowledge and strategic Questions per cluster R&D agenda Policy agenda Report with Recommendations for Knowledge - and strategic agenda

14 Result of a scan (1) PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT: 1 ATMOSPHERE Unknown consequences of climate change [31; 37; 43; 57; 61; 68; 72; 96]. FR36 2 ATMOSPHERE (Un) known consequences of emissions into the atmosphere [31] CO2/CFK/Hydrogen/Methylhydrates/dust etc 3 ATMOSPHERE Persistent air pollution in urban areas [23; 179] 4 HYDROSPHERE Diffuse water pollution 4a 5 HYDROSPHERE Pollution of the sea [31; 57; 72; 97; I18] Part of LIST OF PROBLEMS /THREATS/ Global water shortage may give rise to political instability [22; 23; 31;57;98] 6 HYDROSPHERE Flooding of rivers and sea [69] 7 HYDROSPHERE Little flexibility left in the use of (national) water supply in dense populated areas. 8 GEO-SPHERE More vulnerability for natural disasters [57; 69; 101] in dense populated areas (earth quakes, delta river plane flooding risk) 9 GEO-SPHERE Exhaustion of, Shortage of fossil fuels [22; 28; 29; 31; 41; 66] FR37 rare minerals 10 BIO-SPHERE Loss of live resources [22;31;40; 57;61;68;74] 11 BIO-SPHERE Disruption of fertility [111; I10; I11; I18] 12 BIO-SPHERE Infectious diseases constitute a permanent threat (in particular dense populations [22; WHO in 31; 57; 68; 150; 151]but also for crops, cattle etc, New health threats FR38 resistance increase of pathogens UK 146/147/ SPACE Lack of space (related to urbanisation) [57; 69] Loss of space to draught or permanent flooding (B9) and contamination 14 OUTER SPACE Exponentially expanding space debris [I9] 15 OUTER SPACE Asteroid impact [31] 16 OUTER SPACE Solar (and other) gamma bursts 17 OUTER SPACE Contact with extraterrestrial life.

15 Education, research and development 31 EDUCATION (general) An educational system that can keep up with the exponential increase in knowledge worldwide,by data mining and increased attention on languages and culture knowledge of upcoming economies on different school level 32 EDUCATION (general) Creativity in education [5; 121; 122;] 34 EDUCATION New educational and career models [5] 34a EDUCATION Open sources of education (UK158) 34b EDUCATION Innovative learning environments (FORS 14 FINL) Part of LISTS OF OPPORTUNITIES BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Open sources for innovation and government (2) [207] BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Taking advantage of shifts in paradigms [35,156,157] search for breakthroughs 36a BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Data mining and electronic communication for improved exchange of knowledge and discoveries (FORS 4 GR) 36b 36c 36d 36e BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Improving the governance of European R&D system (FORS 7 FR)(FORS 21 FINL) Development of trans national innovation networks clusters (FORS30 GERM) Horizon scanning as a tool for identification of new issues for S&T (FORS 40 NETH) Culture, religion as drivers in S&T development and appreciation of S&T outcomes 37 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Threats as leitmotif for innovation. [208] 38 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Promising new fields of science [27; 31; ] 38a SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Environnemental technologies (FORS 16 FINL) clean waters etc. 39 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Converging technologies (CT). [194] 40 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CT to develop human cognition and communication

16 Robotica/interconnectivity Higher Education/ Research policy Bio Nano? Social Science & Psychology Ambient technology Converging technologies Capital/Money Applications: transport, entertainment etc Automation Robotics Interconnectivity QUESTIONS OF ECONOMIC & SOCIAL -SUSTAINABILITY Labor Changing (National) Economy Education Info Cogno ETHIC & DEMOCRATIC- SUSTAINABILITY Upcoming Economies Competition cooperation Control Society Orwell 1984 Energy Health & care Demography Rare materials QUESTIONS OF ECO- SUSTAINABILITY

17 Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands Experience pilot Horizon scan till now: Complex Output Clusters to be worked on further Better scoping thematic/discipline foresight International cooperation (UK/DK/..) Use in N.W.O strategic plan, Demand regional authorities, other Ministries, Other countries

18 Rationale HS towards R&D identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation Identify plausible cross links (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues (from different parts of the horizon) with a potential major impact Identify new trans-disciplinary and /or policy domain crossing sets of issues for further focused foresight (which makes it possible to improve the scoping of these foresight activities) and or research identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for using potential opportunities)

19 Rationale HS towards Policy Widening the scope for policy and decision makers base for resilient,cross departmental policies alert policy makers on forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities stimulate the use of horizon scanning in decision making on different levels, to widen their scope and to envision the future in a more systematic way built horizon scanning and foresight capacity into their organisation

20 Characteristics of HS No fixed time horizon Beyond the usual timescale as far as you can see signals No fixed timeframe Wide scope Across disciplinary and departmental borders/looking for (unexpected) interaction of scanned issues Defensive and opportunity orientation Early risk identification/ threats to common values Opportunities contributing to achieve common values Where others do not go Margins of current thinking/ weak signals But looking at central societal needs Systematic and Cumulative Categories (STEEP) Repetitive assessment

21 Future of R&D influencing Wide scope foresight (horizon scanning) to develop visions on new emerging potentials of and new emerging external questions for R&D, setting (inter) national priorities Focused participatory foresight on themes, questions coming from the HS to align key stakeholders on questions and potentials

22 R&D influencing Revolving funds for initiating multidisciplinary cooperation and multidisciplinary RDI programs to cope with future challenges identified in the HS and foresight Diffuse influence through participative processes, new tools as wiki, blogs etc

23 ORGANISATION OF THE JOINT EU- HORIZONSCAN HS coordination group National scan National scan International creative workshop with a wide variety of expertise and stakeholders International Stakeholder meetings National scan International scan Selection scoping grand challenges Preparation Preparation EU-work shops Trans national EU foresight Transnational foresight Other National Contributors relevant projects EU level Blue sky etc Recommendations EC-Policy Research and innovation